Based on historical data, PCG’s share price moves in correlation with crude oil prices and prices of selected chemical products.
PCG’s share price reached a high of RM10.40 in second quarter of 2022, when crude oil was averaging at USD112 per barrel and prices, for example, of urea was above USD700 per metric tonne. As of 31 March 2023, crude oil prices have declined by 27%, urea prices came down by 50%, while other chemicals declined between 10% to 35%.
We are of the opinion that the share price has declined due to analysts’ assessment that the Company’s performance in 2023 will be lower compared to 2022 due to lower GDP growth forecast and inflationary pressures on costs.
Of China's total commitment, an estimated RM80 billion will be invested by Rongsheng Petrochemical for the petrochemical refinery in Pengerang.5 Apr 2023
KUALA LUMPUR: Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd said it has yet to see a meaningful recovery, despite some uplift in demand from China, post-Chinese New year, for selected chemicals.
According to managing director and CEO Mohd Yusri Mohamed Yusof, the overall chemicals sector remains cautious given the volatile energy prices although there have been some positive movements in selected regions in the first quarter.
He added that operating costs have increased due to the effects of inflation on gas and fuel giving rise to energy and utilities costs, further narrowing product spreads and adding pressure on margins.
I3lurker, Petchem quarter ended 31 March result out Save by Fertilisers and Methanol profit. Look like need to wait another very bad quarter to collect Petchem below Philip cost.
Segment profit for the period 1 Individual quarter ended 31 March In RM Mil 2023: 2022 Restated Olefins and Derivatives: 170: 733 Fertilisers and Methanol: 533: 1,172 Specialties: (29): 163 Others2: (138): 4 Total 536: 2,072
Petronas Chemicals - Not Out of the Woods Yet; D/G to SELL Date: 2023-05-30 Firm: RHB-OSK Stock: PCHEM Price Target: 6.00 Price Call: SELL Last Price: 6.87 Upside/Downside: -0.87 (12.66%) Cut to SELL from Neutral, new MYR6 TP from MYR6.89, 13% downside. Petronas Chemicals’ 1Q23 results missed expectations due to weaker margins. The overall petrochemical market and specialty chemicals outlook remain unexciting amidst a weak recovery in demand. In the near term, we think the stock’s catalysts are lacking, while start-up costs for petrochemical plants at Pengerang Integrated Complex (PIC) could dampen margins. Missed expectations. 1Q23 core earnings of MYR677m (-67% YoY; -29% QoQ) missed expectations, at 13% and 14% of our and Street full-year estimates. The negative variation was largely led by weaker-than-expected margins. No dividend was declared, as expected.
Urea futures fell below $300 per tonne in late May, the lowest since the opening days of 2021 as feedstock prices continued to slide. Abundant LNG imports and restructured supply chains increased the availability of natural gas in Europe. In the meantime, rising interest rates reduced expectations of future demand, lowering European and US natural gas prices. Also, major importer India continued to buy Russian fertilizers at discounted prices after the Kremlin snubbed European exports, freeing the flow from the giant Middle Eastern producers to Eurasia. Additionally, high inventories in Brazil cut the demand for one of the world’s leading agricultural producers. Previously, shortages of energy feedstock in Europe drove fertilizer plants to shut down or operate well below capacity, sending urea prices to a record $1050 per tonne in April 2022.
Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd’s (PetChem) profit outlook for the second quarter of financial year 2023 (2Q23) looks even weaker than 1Q23, given the cyclical headwinds facing the petrochemical sector, say analysts. The group registered 1Q23 core net profit of RM604mil, down 29% quarter-on-quarter and fell 71% year-on-year. (TheStar)
for Petchem type of industry, the most expensive cost is feedstock. If Petronas carigali can subsidize Petchem, can it become the top player in this region? since there are no other companies like this. Petamina is not ready & doesn't have complete up & downstream
Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd (PetChem) said it had reached a final investment decision (FID) to acquire a maleic anhydride (MAn) plant in Gebeng, Kuantan from its 40% owned unit BASF Petronas Chemicals Sdn Bhd (BPC) for an undisclosed sum. The FID is targeted to be ready by the second half of 2025. PetChem signed an agreement with BPC previously for the acquisition of the 113-kilotonne-per-annum plant, with plans to repurpose and upgrade the facility to produce MAn for the food and pharmaceutical industries. MAn is produced for applications in coatings and polymers, and mainly used in production of unsaturated polyester resins, paints, and food flavouring.
The IEA’s new report, called Oil 2023, confirms the downward trend in the demand for fossil fuels and dives into the evolving oil supply and demand dynamics through to 2028. The report sees oil use for transport going into decline after 2026, as the expansion of electric vehicles, the growth of biofuels, and improving fuel economy reduce consumption while overall consumption is expected to be supported by strong petrochemicals demand.
According to the medium-term market report, global oil demand will rise by 6 per cent between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7 million mb/d based on current government policies and market trends. This growth is expected to be supported by robust demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors.
You just need to monitor above link on commodities price trend of Methanol, Urea, Polyethylene, Polypropylene and Polyvinyl to know a very bad quarterly earning is coming.
Guys just find out this. If you noticed how some share prices jump erratically today?. Yesterday was a Quadruple Witching Day, Case in point, Airport got hammered almost daily and today jumped up 16 sens. Happens every quarter 4 times a year. Fund managers doing portfolio rebalancing. Hope cum Monday it will climb further.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
James_Bond
2,364 posts
Posted by James_Bond > 2023-04-07 15:59 | Report Abuse
Sold 90%, will keep remaining 10% to let profit run… thank you very much!