Posted by rl68 > 2023-12-09 11:18 | Report Abuse

@Fabien _the efficient capital allocator, kindly share some data why you long on oil...

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-12-09 14:21 | Report Abuse

Simply the supply demand dynamics over the long term. where do u think the trajectory is heading towards? short term, is anyone guess....economic recession, slowing demand, geopolitical risk, ....artificially suppressed prices by US (2024 election coming)....but over the long term..its a fair bet that the supply demand equation is bias towards higher oil price

there is no substitute for crude oil in terms of energy efficiency and density. the fact is, there are many use case especially in transportation where it is impossible to replace oil as fuel of choice. coupled with the fact that transitioning into renewable energy requires more oil needs than ever. you can read the book "How the World Really Works" by Vaclav Smith where u get all the data supporting this fact

The world still have plenty of oil, yet the supply has been very tightened. oil producers have been incentivised enough by markets or governments to incur new capex for explorations. bank financing has been restrictive or non-existent due to ESG concerns. a case in point, take a look at US shale production....long term secular decline. the certainty is the global supply is very very tight and this tilts the balance of risk towards higher oil price

Posted by cfphoenix > 2023-12-11 04:02 | Report Abuse

PCHEM 7.80 by mid January :)

Posted by rl68 > 2023-12-12 22:55 | Report Abuse

@Fabien _the efficient capital allocator, thanks

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2023-12-19 20:36 | Report Abuse

Fears of higher oil prices after Red Sea attacks - Attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea risk pushing up the price of oil and other goods, analysts have warned.

Several firms have paused shipments through the route after vessels were attacked by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The world's second largest shipping line, Maersk, said on Tuesday that it would reroute some of its vessels around Africa's Cape of Good Hope.

Deja vu? Yes, because similar incident happened back in 2021
Suez Canal blockage - The massive cargo ship Ever Given has completely blocked the Suez Canal, a vital trade passageway for as much as 12% of the world’s seaborne trade. A prolonged blockage could lead to “significant disruptions to global trade, skyrocketing shipping rates, further increase of energy commodities, and an uptick in global inflation,” JPMorgan warned.

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2023-12-22 13:41 | Report Abuse

Sentiment of oil market slowly timbul. Tengok harga minyak mampu naik sampai ke $100/barrel tak...

Posted by Mabel > 2023-12-24 21:39 | Report Abuse

Haha don't worry...Santa is cuming to town..

NEW YORK (Dec 23): Wall Street is counting on the so-called Santa Claus Rally to bring record highs as markets close out 2023 with strong gains. The S&P 500 is up over 4% in December alone and has risen 24% this year, bringing it within 1% of a new all-time high. The benchmark index is also on track for its eighth straight positive week.

If history is any indication, that momentum is likely to continue in the short term. The end of the year tends to be a strong period for stocks, a phenomenon dubbed the “Santa Claus Rally”. The S&P 500 on average has gained 1.3% in the last five days of December and first two days of January, according to data from the Stock Trader's Almanac going back to 1969. Those gains have been pinned on reasons varying from buying before the new year following tax-related sales to general holiday hopefulness.

This year, optimism is high. The Federal Reserve (Fed) surprised investors earlier in December by signaling that its historic monetary policy tightening is likely over and projecting rate cuts into 2024, following signs that inflation is continuing to moderate. Data on Friday supported that trend, showing annual US inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, slowed further below 3% in November.

Bursa Malaysia is anticipated to stage a rebound next week, buoyed by continuous support from foreign funds and improving economic conditions. From a technical perspective, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) failed to surpass the critical resistance level of 1,465 despite a few attempts, followed by four consecutive days of decline and broke below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) on Friday. However, as the index has managed to hold above its 50-day EMA, the odds of an upside move are increasing. Hence, we believe the benchmark index is still in a consolidation mode with a slight positive bias.

As such, we anticipate the benchmark index to trend within the 1,450-1,470 range for next week, with immediate support at 1,450 followed by 1,440. On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the FBM KLCI fell 7.87 points to end the week at 1,454.38 versus 1,462.25 a week ago.

Meow

Posted by Mabel > 2023-12-24 21:49 | Report Abuse

As tonight is on the Charismas Eve, Santa loads his sleigh with toys and flies around the world, drawn by eight reindeer, stopping at each child’s house. This year he decided to change his reindeer with 8 Bulls. He will slides down the chimney and leaves the gifts, refreshing himself with the milk and cookies left for him by the household’s children.

He is usually depicted as a jolly, white-bearded man wearing a red suit and a hat. He is also known for his hearty laugh, often rendered as “ho, ho, ho” . Santa reminded Mabel of Sifu Mickey with his femes Ho Ho Ho...

Enjoy your holidays guys and gals...

Captain Mabel Meow

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2023-12-27 11:58 | Report Abuse

Santa punya sleigh tambah minyak Petronas juga, hehhehe

Posted by Mabel > 2023-12-28 11:40 | Report Abuse

Haha PChem so steady..

Meow Meow Meow

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2024-01-08 13:59 | Report Abuse

Patut steady, jika tak, ekonomi Malaysia akan terjejas

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2024-01-11 13:38 | Report Abuse

Harga lelong hari ni. Masuk sikit @ 6.94

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-12 06:56 | Report Abuse

Huge pressure to close petrochemical plants as global overcapacity grows
Will Beacham

07-Nov-2023

BARCELONA (ICIS)–As waves of new capacity come onstream in China and the Middle East, stagnant demand growth and falling margins are increasing pressure on chemical companies to permanently close older facilities.

Wave of oil-to-chemicals projects will flood market
Global operating rates forecast at 80% to 2030, from 88% long term average
Huge pressure on non-integrated/high-cost facilities to close
More plant closures could be driven by high costs, low demand, decarbonization
High closure costs include environmental cleanup, redundancy payments
Upstream integration to refineries prevents closures
Chemical industry could reinvent itself as service provider
Q3 Europe margins low or negative
Q4 margins improve as oil prices fall
No sign of improvement in downstream demand

Posted by Sslee > 2024-01-12 07:10 | Report Abuse

Following several years of significant investment in production capacity in China, a perfect storm is hitting the chemicals market, as increased global capacity meets weakening demand. The global oversupply of petrochemicals is expected to hit a record 218m tonnes in 20231 and China is continuing to add capacity, with almost 140m tonnes expected to come onstream in 2023, well in excess of previous years.

Against the backdrop of a worsening macroeconomic outlook and a strong US dollar, chemical market participants are having to contend with an unprecedented level of uncertainty within the industry.

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2024-01-16 12:48 | Report Abuse

Masuk sikit lagi hari ini @ 6.86

Posted by Mabel > 2024-01-16 21:45 | Report Abuse

Revenue and Earning Consistent High Growth in the past 3 years
Debt Level Low Long Term Debt

EPS 0.8
BVPS 4.88
DPS 0.41

Time to collect this Gems

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2024-01-17 20:23 | Report Abuse

Tinggal tak byk duit utk masuk hari ni 😥 Terus tunggu 6.50 dan sapu

Posted by Mabel > 2024-01-18 09:44 | Report Abuse

Yesterday Mabel collected at 6.7 today so nice oledi..

Now also waiting at 6.5...

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2024-01-22 19:30 | Report Abuse

Sama-sama kita untung dr Pchem, Mabel 🤗

Posted by Mabel > 2024-01-23 17:55 | Report Abuse

HafizAjiad98 Sama-sama kita untung dr Pchem, Mabel 🤗
22/01/2024 7:30 PM

Yes Hafiz, PCHEM has been a darling...

Nowadays everybody is chasing for YTLPOWER. Little they know that stock has already reached it's peak and neglecting our PCHEM, which is good..

PCHEM is Petronas Chemicals Group Berhad, a leading integrated chemicals producer in Malaysia and Southeast Asia. YTLPOWER is YTL Power International Berhad, a diversified utility company that operates in power generation, transmission, water and sewerage services, communications, and education.

One way to measure the strength of a company is to look at its profitability, which can be assessed by indicators such as return on equity (ROE), earnings per share (EPS), and dividend yield (DY). Based on the latest available quarterly reports, here are the values of these indicators for PCHEM and YTLPOWER:

Company ROE EPS (sen) DY (%)
PCHEM 1.0% 5.00 6.07
YTLPOWER 3.8% 2.20 7.46

As you can see, YTLPOWER has a higher ROE, which means it generates more income from its shareholders’ equity. It also has a higher DY, which means it pays more dividends to its shareholders relative to its share price. However, PCHEM has a higher EPS, which means it earns more profit per share.

Another way to measure the strength of a company is to look at its growth, which can be assessed by indicators such as revenue, net profit, and earnings growth. Based on the latest available annual reports, here are the values of these indicators for PCHEM and YTLPOWER:

Company Revenue (RM billion) Net Profit (RM million) Earnings Growth (%)
PCHEM 23.57 2.06 342.1
YTLPOWER 10.71 751.00 24.0

As you can see, PCHEM has a higher revenue and net profit, which means it generates more sales and income from its operations. It also has a higher earnings growth, which means it increases its profit at a faster rate.

Based on these indicators, it seems that PCHEM is a stronger company than YTLPOWER in terms of profitability and growth.

To Our Success !

Captain Mabel Meow

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2024-01-24 12:31 | Report Abuse

bagus bagus, Pchem mula melonjak

Posted by Mabel > 2024-01-26 11:56 | Report Abuse

Thanks to the head up Bro Income. Mabel is now on board at YTLPower. Still keeping PCHEM.

Bottom line, why settle for one when you can have all both.

To Our Success !

Captain Mabel Meow

Posted by Nepo > 2024-01-27 21:41 | Report Abuse

Hi, can buy pchem @RM 6.70 or not..?
Pls advise..🙁

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2024-01-30 09:45 | Report Abuse

Jika ada free cash, memang boleh kutip punya 😄

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2024-02-02 10:03 | Report Abuse

Bulan ni mingkin Pchem boleh peceh rm7

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

dengar Pchem ni bolh pecah rm7 semasa kptsannya keluar 😉

Posted by Mabel > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/02/1012824/petronas-chemicals-q4-earnings-improve-higher-plant-utilisation

Posted by Mabel > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

PetChem improvement in its fourth quarter (Q4) 2023 earnings will primarily be driven by higher overall plant utilisation (PU) as a slew of unplanned outages in Q2 and Q3 2023 were resolved.

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

bagus 👍 ---> rm7

Posted by HafizAjiad98 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Akhir bulan ni saya teka blh lihat Pchem naik sampai ke rm7

Posted by Oldboynewnoob > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

What’s the expected Q4 divd for this stock

Posted by TiffanixLVxHermes > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

oh NO....
Bad QR + NO div?
need to offload 😥

Posted by Fabien _the efficient capital allocator > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Touch macro conditions reflected in the results. A very bad quarter result, even worse than Q2 2020 when the whole global economy entered into lockdown.

Posted by Nepo > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

let examine the impact..😥😥😥

Posted by Sslee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Need Philip's opinion why this quarter result so bad?

Posted by TiffanixLVxHermes > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

div 5 cents
revenue slightly up
profit seriously down

digesting the report..

Posted by Nepo > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

wondering siapa yang accumulating or pp usually termed as "bottom fishing"..

Posted by Nepo > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Pp said buy stock buy leading stock
this is another example of good stock bad result but not sinking..

Posted by Mabel > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

4Q23 missed expectations but DPS was in-line

Ex-one-off (MYR78m inventory write down to NRV), 4Q23 core net profit was MYR161m (-61% QoQ, -81% YoY). FY23 core earnings of MYR1,774m (-69% YoY) was only 86%/82% of ours/consensus estimates.

Key variance against our forecast was due to: i) unexpected shutdown at PC Aromatics and slowdown at PC Olefins due to steam interruption issues, resulting in lower production & sales volume in 4Q23; and ii) crimping of EBITDA and
PAT margins due to operating leverage (lower sales volumes), coupled with
higher maintenance costs throughout the quarter. A 2nd interim 5sen DPS
brings FY23 DPS to 13sen (62% DPR), well within our forecast.

PetChem declared a dividend of five sen per share amounting to RM400 million payable on March 26.

Total dividends for FY2023 came in at 41 sen per share, totalling RM1 billion.

Thank you PCHEM

Meow

Posted by Sslee > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Will Pchem break below 6 or 5?
Need few more quarters of bad result.

Posted by Mabel > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Maybank gave a revised TP of MYR5.05

PCHEM’s 4Q23 results missed expectations. We cut our FY24-25E EPS by - 33%/-37% to account for:

i) lower EBITDA margins for its O&D segment;
ii) post results house-keeping; and iii) incorporating Pengerang ops beginning
2H24. With that, our TP is lowered to MYR5.05 (from MYR5.75) after rolling
forward valuation to FY25E (from FY24E) based on 18.1x PER (previously
16x), its updated 5Y mean. Maintain SELL.

Source : Maybank

Posted by kvlam1010 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Mabel, would you please give me the linked of Maybank's TP. of PCHEM ?

Posted by Mabel > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

#kvlam1010 Mabel, would you please give me the linked of Maybank's TP. of PCHEM ?
27/02/2024 12:29 PM

Sure kvlam1010

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/366758.pdf

Cheers!

Posted by Mabel > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Looks like our PCHEM has been so steady...

To Our Success !

Meow

Posted by kvlam1010 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Thank you Mabel to your linked.

Posted by Nepo > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

nibble some rm6.7x, great price

Posted by yielder > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

is this a good time to buy? since China's excess capacity flood the market and forced weak competitors to shut. does Petchem has long term advantage?

Posted by Mabel > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

yielder is this a good time to buy? since China's excess capacity flood the market and forced weak competitors to shut. does Petchem has long term advantage?
07/03/2024 9:28 AM

Mabel sold all RM 7, RM 7.01 and RM 7.02..

Now waiting to reenter...

PCHEM currently is still bullish..

Posted by Mabel > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Nepo nibble some rm6.7x, great price
05/03/2024 11:44 AM

Well done Nepo...

This is a good price to enter..

Posted by Mohd ImranRafifi > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

looks like Pchem will b able to break RM7 within this week