Posted by darrenliew > 2017-09-25 13:21 | Report Abuse

NO ONE CAN BE SURE THAT HIS SELECTION OF THE VARIOUS PRICE TARGETS IS RIGHT OR WRONG. BASICALLY IT BOILS DOWN TO CONSIDERATION OF FUNDAMENTALS, TIMING , GUT FEELING, AND ONE'S LUCK. MY FIRST ENTRY INTO AFFIN WAS WHEN ITS TRADING AROUND 2.25/2.28. EXITED AROUND 2.88 TO 2.95. FOR MY SECOND ROUND I DID LOOKED AT THE VARIOUS TARGET PRICES . I DECIDED TO AIM FOR UOB KAYHIAN'S 2.50. LUCKY TO ACHIEVE IT AROUND THIS PRICE AND DECIDED TO QUIT AGIN AT ABT 2.66/2.67.
NOTHING GREAT BUT RETURNS WAS OK.

OTHER GUYS CAN SELECT THE HIGHER PRICE TARGETS. I HAVE NO MISGIVINGS. I ALWAYS BELIEVE IN SHARE MARKETS THERE ARE NO SURE BETS. I ALSO HAVE MY SHARE OF MISJUDGEMENTS

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-09-26 18:54 | Report Abuse

MFRS 9 IS GOING TO SERIOUSLY HIT ALL BANKS AND FINANCIAL ENTITIES'S COMING QUARTERLY PROFITS AS LOAN LOSS IMPAIRMENTS WILL JUMP UP. INVESTORS JUST CANNOT IGNORE THIS SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THEIR FUTURE PROFITS

Posted by freonsf > 2017-09-26 18:58 | Report Abuse

what is MFRS 9?

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-09-26 19:13 | Report Abuse

ALSO WHEN PROFITS ARE DEPRESSED IT WILL MEAN LOWER DIVIDENDS PAYOUTS.
THAT'S THE NEW REALITY WE HAVE TO ADJUST TO WHEN CONSIDERING INVESTING IN THE BANKING AND FINANCIAL SHARES.
JUST SPEAKING FOR MYSELF AND MY LIKE-MINDED INVESTORS. THE OTHER GUYS ARE AT LIBERTY TO THINK AND REACT DIFFERENTLY

Posted by aklobi > 2017-09-27 21:21 | Report Abuse

darrenliew.. I still believe you are overreacting. You did say you sold and are out, yet you are running a negative campaign: not in the stock + negative campaign = scare tactic trying to push the stock lower. simples! I do appreciate honest advises, such as TheContrarian's. Unfortunately I can't say the same about you.

Posted by plaxo 88 > 2017-09-28 10:08 | Report Abuse

do you guys see any significant change in price once the proposed changes to the holdings of the bank are completed. Your expert advice pls.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-09-28 12:01 | Report Abuse

DO NOT MATTER WHAT U THINK OF ME. YOUR OPINION IS NOT IMPORTANT TO ME.
I USUALLY DO NOT STOOP LOW TO PASS COMMENTS ON OTHER WRITERS.
I WILL JUST GIVE MY VIEWS AFTER GETTING NEW OR THE LATEST MARKET INFO.
MFRS 9 POSE REAL RISKS TO BANK SHARES
I AM SPEAKING FACTS. HENCE NOT JUST IMAGERY SCARE TACTICS.

Posted by Mittens > 2017-09-28 20:09 | Report Abuse

https://eresearchsystem.bursamalaysia.com/eResearch/webdownload.pub?id=20058

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2017-09-29 21:16 | Report Abuse

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/286925

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-10-01 10:20 | Report Abuse

CALLING FROM SYDNEY AU. IN THE MIDST Of MY 3 WEEK HOLIDAYS IN AUSTRALIA. BEAUTIFUL N VIBRANT COUNTRY.
MAYBE CAN SHARE MORE OF MY OPINIONS ON AFFIN NEXT WEEK

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-10-01 12:24 | Report Abuse

OBSREVED DURING OUR FLIGHT TO SYDNEY. THE PLANE WAS 50% FILLED WITH INDIAN FAMILIES. DURING OUR SUBSEQUENT VISITS TO VARIOUS TOURIST SPOTS IN N AROUND SYDNEY WE ALSO MET LOTS OF INDIANS. UPON ENQUIRIES THERE IS NOW A GROWING TREND AMONG INDIANS EITHER FROM INDIA MOTHERLAND OR MALAYSIA OR SPORE TO MIGRATE TO AU. THEY WILL SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO STUDY IN AU UNIVERSITIES. THRN STAY ON FOR EMPLOYMENT. GET PR N THEN BRING THEIR WHOLE FAMILIES TO MIGRATE TO AU. OR THEIR PROFESSIONALLY QUALIFIED CHILDREN GETS WORK PASS TO WORK IN AU FIRST THEN GET PR N LATER MOVE OVER THEIR FAMILIES. LOTS OF INDIAN I.T. PROFESSIONALS

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2017-10-02 21:01 | Report Abuse

Employment for non citizens including PR is very difficult in AU. Do verify first.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-10-03 10:31 | Report Abuse

CONFIRMED KNOW A SENIOR EXECUTIVE IN AMP AU. MANY IT QUALIFIED PERSONNEL
FROM INDIAN NATIONALS N OTHERS FROM
MALAYSIA N SPORE
WORKING WITH PROFESSIONAL WORK PASSES.
LATEST MIGRATION WAVE BY PERSONS OF INDIAN DESCENT TO AU. VIBRANT ECONOMY
GREAT OPPORTUNITIES.

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2017-10-03 17:07 | Report Abuse

I don't think so. One of my former colleague after getting PR can't even get a job there. He also survived and found out the same things happened to many PRs.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-10-03 17:18 | Report Abuse

As always some will be more successful than
others. So many factors in play. Main thing the opportunities are greater

Posted by Beza > 2017-10-06 09:20 | Report Abuse

AFFIN was reported to be planning to reduce its workforce by 6%, which will incur an additional RM50m to its opex. While we trim its FY17E earnings by 8%, our FY18E is maintained as we had previously accounted for a lower CIR. Maintain OUTPERFORM.

Reduction in workforce. It was highlighted in the media yesterday that Affin Holdings Bhd (AFFIN) is planning to reduce its workforce by as much as 6% or 300 staff. The media quoting senior AFFIN’s management mentioned that the reduction is “part of its strategy to be an efficient financial entity while improving productivity”. The scheme which is virtually a Voluntary Separation Scheme or VSS will likely be offered towards year end. The VSS is expected to add an additional RM50m to its opex for FY17.

VSS to be completed by 4QFY17. We understand that a VSS has been initiated since last month with the bulk likely to be completed by the end of the year. However, we were not surprised with cost reduction via VSS as AFFIN had highlighted before that it intends to improve productivity via operational efficiency under its AFFINITY TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMME with the target to reduce its Cost to Income ratio (CIR) under 50% by 2020 (FY16: 56.5%).

FY17E tweaked slightly downwards. Our FY17E estimate is shaved by 8% to RM547m as we input in the additional costs incurred for the VSS. Our FY18E earnings is maintained as we had imputed in a lower CIR at 57% (vs FY17E CIR of 59%) previously to account for management’s strategic initiatives to improve operational efficiency going forward.

Better yielding assets. We favour AFFIN due to its improving NIM. While we are conservative on its loans (FY17E: ~5%), we are positive on its selective asset growth on better priced loans, which will translate to better NIM for AFFIN. For 1H17, NIM improved by 4bps, which was due to better pricing as the focus was on better yielding assets. The higher NIMs were supported by high Average Lending Yields of 5.3% (vs industry 4.6%) with the focus on the affluent HP segment and SME. We understand from management that its NIMs are above the regulatory 100%. Improving NIMs were also boosted with the exit of nearly RM1.5b loans in the form of revolving credit, as these loans interest margins were below the bank's hurdle rate and hence easier to exit. With the focus on better pricing assets, we are confident of AFFIN maintaining its improved NIM with potential higher cost of funds curtailed with the recent issue of the RM1b MTN programme (Feb 2017) to support funding and translating into stable cost of funds.

Our TP is maintained at RM3.00 based on a blended FY18E PB/PE ratio of 0.60x/10.8x. Currently, valuations are undemanding translating into 0.6x P/B (vs its 1-year historical high of 0.7x P/BV). Maintain OUTPERFORM.

Source: Kenanga Research - 06 Oct 2017

Posted by titus > 2017-10-06 15:53 | Report Abuse

i wait for affin to turn from Rm2+ to 3, wait until my neck also long a'dy......mayb come back after cny and see go ang pow or not la....

Posted by shortinvestor77 > 2017-10-10 14:38 | Report Abuse

ok. Titus.

Posted by Mittens > 2017-11-02 12:28 | Report Abuse

Waking up soon!

Posted by titus > 2017-11-02 20:24 | Report Abuse

Koyak a'dy la. We r the 1 better wake up soon

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-11-10 20:38 | Report Abuse

The coming implementation of MFRS 9 will hit banks hard with higher provisions for doubtful loans,
Significantly larger impairment provisions will result in lower profits and reduced dividends.
Some banks with poorer quality loan portfolios will be hit harder. Includes Affin Bank.
Already evident in its last 2 quarterly results with higher impairments due to its R & Rs (Loan Restructuring & Rescheduling) . Going forward such impairments can worsen based on the more stringent impairment procedures/conditions under MFRS 9

Posted by Mittens > 2017-11-14 20:53 | Report Abuse

When q3 results?

Posted by titus > 2017-11-15 08:57 | Report Abuse

Q3 should be end of nov loh. Didn't really see the last 2Q impairment in detail but eps is higher compare to last year same Q. Also, eps has been rising steadily and nta also continue to rise leh. So wait for 2 more weeks and see how le.....

Posted by Vin Cullen > 2017-11-15 16:51 | Report Abuse

Financial counter all drop..

Posted by syevanee > 2017-11-16 20:18 | Report Abuse

terrible bank stock..

Posted by kktom > 2017-11-17 20:53 | Report Abuse

It is not small n beautiful stock but small n ugly stock instead.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2017-11-20 00:35 | Report Abuse

In terms of valuations, Affin is quite undervalued, and has room to leverage up as it has gearing of 7X compared to the 9-10 of the top banks.

However, i dont see them being able to obtain enough deposits to leverage up. I only hold 2% of portfolio in affin. Only due to the undervaluation to its fair value.

May buy more if it drops more than 15%.

Posted by titus > 2017-11-20 08:59 | Report Abuse

I heard from news MFRS will only be implemented starting next year. Meaning the upcoming Q till year end should still be good. Well, it has fallen a lot and decided to hold because I need to have some banking stock in my portfolio. And also banking on any M&A announcement ^_^.
Banks are looking to grow bigger and M&A could be a possible ways and hopefully lady luck struck on Affin.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-11-20 15:43 | Report Abuse

Must remind myself.
The trend is your best friend. Never go against it.
Property Sector downgraded due to general weak property market with sentiments aggravated significantly by BNM Reports and all the Gurus's / Negative analysis causing much fears resulting in the bearish trend engulfing most property counters.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-11-20 15:44 | Report Abuse

Will also negatively impact banking stocks due to its linkages to the latters' loan portfolios for property financing both in its lending business volumes as well as its risks of higher provisions for impairments especially with the impending implementation of MFRS9

Posted by Vin Cullen > 2017-11-20 16:22 | Report Abuse

Break the supprt line..
Will collect at RM2.15...

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-11-22 17:16 | Report Abuse

Agree with Vin. The negative impact from the double whammy of Property Sector downgrade (which affects its lending business to the housing and construction industries) and the impending enforcement of the much stricter provisions for loan impairments under MFRS9 (which will hit its profitability and hence reduce its Dividend payouts) can gradually push down its share price to its previous support price range of 2.00 to 2.15 which hovered around here at the beginning of the year.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-11-22 17:42 | Report Abuse

Provisions for impairments will now include those loans under R &R (Restructuring and Rescheduling) even tho these have not defaulted under their existing terms & conditions..
Hence MFRS9 's negative impact the the banks' bottom lines can be substantial and pervasive

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-11-22 20:22 | Report Abuse

In view of the many uncertainties going to have significant impact arising from the recent downgrade of our property sector and the impending enforcement of MFRS 9 on our Banking industry, decided not to have any further investments in these 2 sectors until more facts and figures are available by the 1Q OF 2018

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-11-22 20:45 | Report Abuse

Darrenliew, how's Tropicana and L&G doing?

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-11-22 21:40 | Report Abuse

Had punted quite heavily on Trop several times over the past 2 years. Started it after it had fallen down to the 1.22 to 0.98 range. Recalled that it was very heavily geared at that time and its share prices gyrated with every news/announcements on its degearing moves (eg sale of its Mall in SS2 for rm540m, etc) and its quarterly results/Dividends announcements, My 1st venture was very profitable. Subsequent rounds were slightly profitable to breaking even only,
I am now completely out of Trop. (fundamentals, profits and dividends are intact but its share pricing valuation do not seem to be able to make any headway).

L&G : Entry prices 0.215 to 0.22 post RI. Holding them for long term as its various catalysts (Tg Malim landbank near the proposed New Proton City under China's Geely and the proposed redevelopment of its prime lands currently housing its Sports Club in Sri Damansara, etc) will take some time to eventuate. Meanwhile its fundamentals remain sound n continues to be profitable in the midst of the property sect slowdown/downgrade. I think its latest 2 projects (senaparc in Senawang is being priced right while its Foresster2 in Sri Damansara should also do well being in a prime location and riding on the success of its Foresster1). Lets hope we will get at least 1 sen Dividend for the current Fin Year (taking into account its RI dilution).

Was very lucky to have taken profit on NOTION about 2 weeks before its fire incident.
So sorry to see his kind of unfortunate event.

Generally somewhat cautious towards the general stock market in view of the lofty valuations of the foreign bourses (many hitting all time highs). Waiting for a clearer picture on Bursa during the 1st 3 months of 2018 before deciding whether to be more active/aggressive.

Took my family to a 3 week holiday in Sydney and a 5 day visit to Jakarta.
Sydney is very nice. Plenty to see and do but expensive due to our poor RM.
Jakarta has nothing much to offer alto surprisingly the people there are very nice and helpful.

Just taking this opportunity to blah blah. Excuse me

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-11-23 08:35 | Report Abuse

This fear had been at the back of my mind during my earlier comments above (about Lofty Share prices . A sharp correction is overdue )
"Fed officials fear financial market 'imbalances' and possibility of 'sharp reversal' in prices
Minutes from the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 Federal Open Market Committee meeting indicate some worry about rising financial markets."

Posted by kelvin61 > 2017-11-27 23:17 | Report Abuse

Cheapest banking stock on Bursa. Selling half its book value and running on single digit PE. Gem of a stock at current price. Don't lose this golden opportunity, cheers.

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-11-28 08:22 | Report Abuse

: With the adoption of the new International Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) next year -- or MFRS 9 as the Malaysian equivalent is known -- the amounts banks have to set aside for expected loan liabilities or provisions could jump as high as 50%, which could hurt earnings, weigh on capital ratios and potentially affect dividend payout, experts say.
Under the new accounting standard, banks will be required to switch to an expected loss model, as opposed to the incurred loss model that is used now under the current accounting standard or MFRS 139.
Essentially, this means banks will have to make provisions in anticipation of future losses, rather than the current practice of making provisions only when loans have been classified as impaired.
Hence, for a performing loan, banks will have to make provisions on the basis of projected losses over 12 months. If there are signs that the loan's credit quality is weakening, then losses will have to be booked over the loan's entire lifetime.

Posted by onward > 2017-11-30 18:23 | Report Abuse

Oh no...very bad result

Posted by onward > 2017-11-30 18:25 | Report Abuse

And no dividend... Disappointed.

Posted by beso > 2017-11-30 18:35 | Report Abuse

q3 net profit halved
another counter to gap down on monday

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2017-11-30 20:38 | Report Abuse

Unlikely to gap down, negatives mostly priced in. They did say VSS was going to be RM50m but wasnt expecting headcount to also grow? Wtf?Position is still very small, keep only lah.

Posted by Vin Cullen > 2017-11-30 23:55 | Report Abuse

VSS bad for short term but ofcourse good for longer term..
Start from 1Q18 will be better year for affin

Posted by darrenliew > 2017-12-01 09:37 | Report Abuse

Differring view point:
The worst is yet to come for 2018 with the more stringent loan impairemenst enforcement under the MFRS 9 (detailed posting above) w.e.f. 1/01/2018

Posted by ks55_ > 2017-12-04 12:36 | Report Abuse

No dividend. Below RM 2 coming.

Posted by Vin Cullen > 2017-12-04 14:53 | Report Abuse

Hand itchy..
Below RM2.30 buy abit and hold first

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-12-05 18:49 | Report Abuse

Affin BOD has taken note of ks55's comments and have decided to declare a 4.5 Sen dividend.

Posted by ivan9511 > 2017-12-05 18:51 | Report Abuse

thecontraraian..last time if I not mistaken you said already sold affllin and take profit
now you buy back ?

Posted by TheContrarian > 2017-12-05 18:52 | Report Abuse

Yup, bought back.