Posted by johnny cash > 2014-05-07 13:15 | Report Abuse

Benalec Holdings (BHB MK) ----------------------uob kay hian today report
Technical BUY with +13.8% potential return
Last price : RM0.940
Target Price : RM1.00, RM1.07
Support : RM0.915
Stop-loss: RM0.900
BUY with a target price of RM1.07 with stop loss
placed below RM0.900. BHB’s share price
advanced higher after the formation of the major
support at RM0.850 as the share price
leapfrogged the “cloud” convincingly yesterday,
which could mark the end of the current
consolidation and kick-start a new up-leg
hereafter. The emergence of fresh buying interest
yesterday in the form of a higher trading volume
of 23.6m shares (vs 20-day average of 1.0m)
signals a genuine breakout which is also
supported by a surge in momentum as flashed by
a bullish crossover in Stochastic. With the
positive crossover having formed between +DI
and ADX, a new uptrend is likely to come through
and is expected to rise further once BHB
successfully breaches the immediate resistance
at RM0.955. We peg our upside target at the
previous high of RM1.07 over the medium-term.

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-07 14:43 | Report Abuse

why very heavy selling queue up? who is selling? !

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-07 14:43 | Report Abuse

Throughout the recent past, CIMB has been the sole advocate of a Sell call on Benalec, irrespective of the number of land deals secured by the company, not to mention the most recent reclamation contract awarded to the company by Boon Siew. The target price of 90 sen suggested by them is ridiculous to say the least; this is biased reporting in anyone's language. I say this because I have read the analyst reports of Affin Bank, AmBank and Kenanga. To enable the members of this blog to arrive at a balanced view, let me reproduce below excerpts of the respective analyst reports. (Because of the length of this posting, I shall break it into 2 parts; the second part comprises Kenanga's analysis.):
AmResearch (AmBank):

Investment Highlights

• We maintain our BUY rating on Benalec Holdings with a
fair value of RM1.31/share. This pegs the stock at a 45%
discount to its estimated sum-of-parts (SOP) value.
• Benalec announced on Bursa Malaysia yesterday evening
that the group’s wholly-owned unit, Benalec Sdn Bhd, has
secured a RM204mil contract (excluding rock revetment
works) from the Oriental group in Malacca.
• Benalec received a letter of award from Oriental Boon Siew
(M) Sdn Bhd to undertake the construction, completion &
maintenance of coastal reclamation as well as associated
works for Ultra Green under Phase 2A, Phase 3A and
Phase 4 in Malacca.
• The project would be executed in two stages covering 415
acres. Each stage would be completed within 30 months
from the date of site possession. Reclamation works are
set to kick off by the third quarter of 2014 with 4Q 2016
being its targeted completion.
• This contract appears to be a repeat job from the Oriental
group, and underscores Benalec’s solid track record as an
integrated marine engineering outfit.
• Prior to this, Benalec had previously undertaken previous
reclamation works for the Oriental group in Malacca.
• More importantly, we believe that this cash job is timely as
it beefs up Benalec’s cash flow position ahead of its future
prospects, notably in Johor.
• Based on a conservative margin of 15% and assuming
equal contributions over the next two financial years, we
estimate that this new contract would make up 23% and
13% of our FY15F and FY16F net profit forecast,
respectively. We leave our earnings forecast unchanged
for now.
• Beyond Malacca, Benalec is keeping a close eye on other
prospective reclamation contracts to replenish its
orderbook. Tenders for reclamation works under Phase 1
of Eastern & Oriental’s STP2 project in Penang (384 acres)
worth potentially over RM1bil could be called once
regulatory approvals are received by 1H 2014.
• Be that as it may, Benalec’s key re-rating projects still
hinges on its ability to monetise the deep development
potential of its concessions in Johor. We gather that
efforts to obtain regulatory approvals are gaining traction,
with tangible newsflow likely to come towards end-2H
2014.

Based on the above info, it is difficult to understand CIMB's persistent call to sell or reduce, unless there is an agenda which we are not privy to

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-07 14:46 | Report Abuse

As promised, the excerpts of Kenanga's analysis are as below:

Benalec Holdings OUTPERFORM ↔
Price: RM0.895
Secured RM204m Construction Contract Target Price: RM1.250 ↔
By Iqbal Zainal l mdiqbal@kenanga.com.my

News
Benalec secured a RM203.9m construction
contract from Oriental Holdings Bhd (NOT
RATED). The project involves construction,
completion & maintenance of coastal
reclamation and associated works in Malacca
covering a total area of approximately 415
acres. The project is scheduled to start in
3Q2014 and is expected to be completed by
4Q2016.

The project shall be executed in 2 stages of
which Stage 1 covers 275 acres while Stage 2
covers 140 acres. Nonetheless, the works for
both stages will be done simultaneously.

Comments


We view the news positively as this project will
boost its orderbook significantly to roughly
RM400m from RM200m. It is also well within
our replenishment orderbook assumption of
RM400m in FY15 (the work will start in June
2014 (FY15). Furthermore, the good news is
that this contract consideration will be paid in
cash (progress billings) by the client. Assuming
a 20% pre-tax margin, the project will
contribute about RM10.2m to Benalec's net
profit every year until FY17.

Note that the project value of RM203.9m
excludes the revetment works which may be
awarded in later part.

Outlook
Although its performance may be dampened in
the short-term due to some changes in its land
sale method, and slower progress of its marine
construction, its long-term outlook remains
intact due to its active land sale coupled with
attractive sea-fronting land concessions in
Malacca and Johor (which is expected to start
contributions from FY15 onwards, albeit in a
gradual manner).

Forecast
No change to our earnings estimates.

Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM

Valuation
Maintaining our SoP-based TP at RM1.25, at
this juncture.

Risks to
Our Call

Sharp increase in raw material prices.

Failure in obtaining Environmental Impact
Assessment for its Johor project.

Posted by powerwk > 2014-05-07 14:49 | Report Abuse

Base on my technical chart and other indication the next level is RM1 (as resistant) if break it should be a good news and happy to every investor that hold till then.

Today can see some selling pressure but the good thing is the buying power is still strong as of now. Not sure if it can hold till end of the day. Wish there are other fund manager or big investor see the potential of the company and continue to buy and accumulate.

As long as today stay at 0.96 or above is still continue the good sign and signal. Let see what it end up later :-)

Enjoy your trading....

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-07 15:13 | Report Abuse

This posting is addressed to the believers. One big reason why the share price is on the uptrend in tandem with the significant transaction volume seen both yesterday and today is the fact that some big market players are apparently picking up the stock.

From what I can gather, the fund managers have just started to make a beeline for Benalec's HQ, hoping to get an accurate and comprehensive update from the :"horse's mouth", as it were. So, for that matter, are the financial journalists. Meanwhile, I have learnt from the "grapevine" that there are a couple of mega deals in the pipeline, as well as new reclamation concessions being secured by the company in Melaka and Johor. All these very positive developments are obviously drawing the smart investors to this company.

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-07 15:20 | Report Abuse

SavvyOne, the past 1 month trading activity did not reflected the actual situation of your story telling.

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-07 15:27 | Report Abuse

king7, I am not talking about the past one month, I am referring to the last two days and going forward. As to why there are a large number of sellers, the answer is simple. The majority of the sellers are small retail investors. What you should note is that the big players are gobbling them up.

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-07 15:30 | Report Abuse

Further, big players will not buy aggressively. They will only do so at the right time.

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-07 15:32 | Report Abuse

Everything in life is timing, especially when it comes to the stock market.

Posted by powerwk > 2014-05-07 16:18 | Report Abuse

hmmm.... it drop back and reverse does not seem good in short term. even though is +0.01 cents now but the closing price is crucial for it to continue move before it stop to consolidate again.

Posted by kukuuman > 2014-05-07 17:14 | Report Abuse

Benalec Holdings : Melaka is not the game changer. Sell on strength. We do not expect this news to trigger a major re-rating for the stock. We foresee a sustained overhang on the share price. Target price 0.90. Price Call : Sell - CIMB 7th May 2014.

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-07 17:33 | Report Abuse

SavvyONe, The seller not seem to be small or retail player, did you monitor the transaction queue?

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-07 17:41 | Report Abuse

SavvyONe, since the news flooded everywhere and so potential as what you have said why who keep selling ? some more the volume and price trend for the past did not reflected who is just enough of making few percent profit margin only then now take profit. "WHO IS SELLING"

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-07 17:43 | Report Abuse

WHO IS SO RUSH TO SELL???!!!!

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-07 17:48 | Report Abuse

king7, I don't worry about who is selling. I only care about whether it is a viable investment decision for me or not. There are a few tricks that the syndicate players use to consistently accumulate shares in the open market. I happen to know some of these tricks but am not at liberty to share these on this forum. I the meantime, judge for yourself. Time will prove whether I am right or wrong.

Posted by JT5774 > 2014-05-07 17:53 | Report Abuse

King7 in stock market, what you need to learn is to buy low and sell high. Don't read too much about the big buy or sell volume. It how the syndicate styles of play.OK.

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-07 17:58 | Report Abuse

The reason I don't really care about who is selling the shares is that, being better informed, I know that the seller(s) is/are going to miss out and buyers at this price will make decent gains.

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-07 18:24 | Report Abuse

To complete my earlier posting on analyst reports, the following excerpts are taken from Affin Bank's analysis and are intended for the information of interested parties:


Forecast
No change to our earnings estimates.

Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM

Valuation
Maintaining our SoP-based TP at RM1.25, at
this juncture.

Risks to
Our Call

Sharp increase in raw material prices.

Failure in obtaining Environmental Impact
Assessment for its Johor project.

Posted by taciturn > 2014-05-07 19:02 | Report Abuse

king7: There's a lot of arbitraging going on (either day trade or contra) with retail traders being content if they can get a profit of half a sen to 1 sen.

The market's taken note of Benalec's recent announcements and/or institutionals are getting involved.

You might think that being a share at 95 sen and selling at 95.5 makes so little money but when you factor in a contra player/daytrader is willing to trade say 500,000 shares a day, that's still about RM800-900 for a day's profit which is decent for a professional trader. (okaylah, maybe not decent compared to some of the bigger players :p)

News has been announced and factored in, don't expect the price to increase 50% in one week for a relatively solid company like Benalec. If that's what you're after, you should be looking at warrants/call-warrants although inexperience can cause you to lose your shirt. Or heck, might as well buy Datasonic and pray. XD

If you're unable to take the strain of watching the price act choppily i.e. 93 to 96, back to 94, back to 95.5 etc, perhaps (and I don't mean this as an insult) you should be looking at more blue chip stocks. Everyone wants to make a big gain, but if it's difficult to keep your emotions/fears in check you're honestly better off with something that's a lot more stable with strong recurring income.

Anyway, just my 2 cents worth. As long as you don't end up like a certain lying troll (who I now suspect lost a fair amount of money on this counter - and is extremely bitter about it), it's all good. :)

Posted by taciturn > 2014-05-07 19:05 | Report Abuse

Further share buyback by Benalec today. They bought back 1,685,000 shares at an average price of 95.76 sen each.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1616641

Posted by JT5774 > 2014-05-07 19:14 | Report Abuse

Another round of share buyback by Benalec today. It show that the Company is really undervalue in share price at this current level, there will be more upside from tomorrow onward, I hope so. Good Evening to all Benalec Investor's and let us meet again tomorrow.

Posted by small_investor > 2014-05-07 20:35 | Report Abuse

3 Million + 1.7 million share buy back.. must be secure some projects .. else why not buy back when price is less then 0.9 last week ??

Posted by ckgoh3 > 2014-05-07 22:42 | Report Abuse

Dow Jones is green tonight, and hopefully it'll continues until tomorrow morning and gives more surge to the less excited KLSE.

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-07 22:48 | Report Abuse

U ask Why company buy back? With your logic If so Sendiri buy la!

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-07 22:50 | Report Abuse

Seng hai sell ! company buy back! Is true DiGi better.

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-07 22:59 | Report Abuse

Is sell low n buy high! What tactic? What ever reason also the share holder is the loser in overall. From 1.50 to 0.85 then sell 0.77 for 5 percent then buy back 0.95. Aiyoyo... Ini macam.

Posted by jenabchen123 > 2014-05-08 00:53 | Report Abuse

I tolong kutu an update. He has forgotten.

21/3/2014 (Day 3) : 0.935
25/3/2014 (Day 7) : 0.920
26/3/2014 (Day 8) : 0.920
27/3/2014 (Day 9) : 0.900
28/3/2014 (Day 10) : 0.900
01/4/2014 (Day 14) : 0.890
02/4/2014 (Day 15) : 0.890
03/4/2014 (Day 16) : 0.885
04/4/2014 (Day 17) : 0.905
08/4/2014 (Day 19) : 0.895
10/4/2014 (Day 21) : 0.895
14/4/2014 (Day 25) : 0.895
15/4/2014 (Day 26) : 0.900
16/4/2014 (Day 27) : 0.900
17/4/2014 (Day 28) : 0.900
22/4/2014 (Day 33) : 0.910
23/4/2014 (Day 34) : 0.935 (That is up 1.5 cent in 34 days!)
30/4/2014 (Day 41) : 0.900
05/5/2014 (Day 46) : 0.895
06/5/2014 (Day 47) : 0.940 (That is up 2 cents in 47 days!)
07/5/2017 (Day 48) : 0.955 (today up by 1.5 sen. Yahoo!)

I am tracking interesting time for Ah Ben! Huat arghhhh!

Posted by zero > 2014-05-08 01:05 | Report Abuse

haha - nice one ah jenabchen!

Posted by JT5774 > 2014-05-08 06:12 | Report Abuse

Good Morning, Benalec Investors, Happy Trading!

Posted by fightingfish88 > 2014-05-08 07:04 | Report Abuse

if today closing price above 0.96 means break up successfully. next target around 200 days 1.08 .hope useful

Posted by rlch > 2014-05-08 07:28 | Report Abuse

A prudent company. Only start buyback aggressively after secure big project.

Posted by taciturn > 2014-05-08 08:05 | Report Abuse

king7: If that's your belief than perhaps Benalec might not be the best investment for you? After all if you think that by the Leaw family selling low and Benalec itself buying back shares is not good then perhaps it's time to cash out.

Never mind that others (including me) believe that the Leaw family selling at a discount was to a friendly party for a different reason.

jenabchen: good one. :p

Posted by GoGoBenalec > 2014-05-08 08:59 | Report Abuse

Jenabchen123 : good one!!!

Posted by Helena > 2014-05-08 11:58 | Report Abuse

this forum is interesting ~ haha kudos to Jenabchen ..

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-08 12:55 | Report Abuse

Why today the counter behaviour like Taciturn so dispointed.

Posted by taciturn > 2014-05-08 13:13 | Report Abuse

King7: Counter's behaviour... like me? Dude I don't understand what youre saying.

Posted by Alex Tan > 2014-05-08 13:49 | Report Abuse

with such a simple no brainer business model where the company creates its own land bank, this stock should be worth 5x more...and yet brothers are squabbling over its wealth - a very unhealthy sign...soon there will be a lot of asset sales BUT....will the minorities shareholders benefit? or how transparent will these 'treasures spit' be done? im sure there will be more than meets the eye....i dont see this stock rising any further than 1.10

Posted by JT5774 > 2014-05-08 13:58 | Report Abuse

When the stock price retreat, alot of negative comments. Steady la.

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-08 15:12 | Report Abuse

king7, that's probably because a large number of speculators may have bought into the counter and are selling out within the T+3 contra period.

Posted by king7 > 2014-05-08 15:40 | Report Abuse

ALEX TAN , make sense.

Posted by kukuuman > 2014-05-08 15:42 | Report Abuse

This CIMB report is rubbish report? No?

Posted by XiaoLiFeiDao > 2014-05-08 15:51 | Report Abuse

Bad news nearly all over and good profit next quarter.

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-08 15:55 | Report Abuse

Alex Tan, the inevitable consequence of a so-called "family feud" occurring within the company is that the attention of the Authorities, i.e. SC and Bursa, is focused on the company and its management. If there is anything that is "more than meets the eye", the Authorities will certainly come down on the perpetrators like a ton of bricks. Do you think that the current management would be so stupid as to commit transgressions right under the noses of the Authorities?

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-08 16:24 | Report Abuse

The company's recent share buyback activities may well be indicative of a strategic corporate manoeuvre. There have been a number of cases where share buybacks were followed later by the subject companies being taken private. There is every likelihood that the majority shareholders of a company like Benalec may reckon that, despite very good financial performance and outstanding potential, the company is still being chronically undervalued, in which case going private can be an exceedingly viable option. So, let's wait and see.

Posted by samsung555 > 2014-05-08 16:35 | Report Abuse

Posed by aciturn on 08/05/2014 08:05----If that's your belief than perhaps Benalec might not be the best investment for you? After all if you think that by the Leaw family selling low and Benalec itself buying back shares is not good then perhaps it's time to cash out.

Never mind that others (including me) believe that the Leaw family selling at a discount was to a friendly party for a different reason.

Posed by aciturn on 08/05/2014 08:05

Is meant Leaw family is cash out now.........

08/05/2014 16:34

Posted by SavvyOne > 2014-05-08 16:45 | Report Abuse

samsung555, think about it, Seng Hai has spent a good part of his productive life growing the company and at this juncture, he and all the other shareholders have not realised anything close to the true worth of the company. Does it make any sense for him (who is the key driver of the company) to cash up now?

Posted by taciturn > 2014-05-08 16:51 | Report Abuse

samsung555: Please re-read my earlier posting on possible reasons of why the Leaw family sold the 5%. Specifically under the section "for those who believe in the good".

If it's really a cash out, my reasoning stands. No one would sell the stake and declare the sale via bursa the very same day. It would have made more sense to milk it for what it's worth and clear shares in the open market for the next 7 days, and then make a declaration.

Also if the Leaw family is cashing out....why have there been no further sale of shares since then by then?

This is unless you're like a certain lying troll of course. His style would be tembak himself in the foot first before selling.

Posted by taciturn > 2014-05-08 16:58 | Report Abuse

Alex Tan: I'm curious where you get the assumption that the stock should be worth 5x more. Is that supposed to be a fundamental statement?

I don't think the process is quite so a "no brainer" operation as you say. Reclaiming the land, that's easy enough with their skillset.

But before you can start reclaiming land:

1) you need the rights/concession to do so either directly from the state government, or from a company who has such rights/concessions. Dealing with state governments is never an easy issue, unless you have some form of kangtao or...other means.
2) you need to get a detailed EIA from the department of environment approved. No EIA means no reclaiming. EIAs these days aren't simply rubber stamped by the department. Re: Tanjung Piai/Pengerang.

You cannot just go, "La la la, I think I will reclaim this spot here" and start to do so or else you'll probably end up behind bars.

It sounds like you just plucked out the 5x figure from the air. Even during the best of times, even without the problems with the brothers, the share price has only been a little 50% higher than what it is now. 5x is a gross exaggeration.

Posted by taciturn > 2014-05-08 17:00 | Report Abuse

JT5774: Yours is the best elegant statement I've seen for the day. It's like everyone who complains are daytraders. :p