Posted by jennylee1382 > 2013-06-13 09:22 | Report Abuse

sense maker still can buy in 1.68

Posted by sense maker > 2013-06-29 18:52 | Report Abuse

Pluses:
1) The epicenter of the current global economic recovery is US housing industry, the mainstay of Liihen's sales.
2) Strong USD
3) 2013's estimated 30sen EPS and 14sen DPS translate into 5.4 times PE and DY of 8.7%.
4) RM2.35 NA per share with most of them land and factories which are supposedly due for revaluation next year (last was 2009). RM0.20 increase in NA per share is expected in 2004 after revaluation.
5) Net cash of RM0.28 per share, enough for 2 years of future dividend.
The only reasons why it has not reached RM2.10 is because some fear governance issue which stems from 2004's unusual surge in share price. That was 9 years ago and it is time to look ahead. At RM2.10, the DY is still 6.7%. The current price is a steal.

Posted by harveylai313 > 2013-07-02 23:29 | Report Abuse

Watch this first before you invest!!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdXzw4UOGM

Posted by sense maker > 2013-07-08 01:50 | Report Abuse

The surge in price in 2004 was prompted by an announcement of a potential buyer interested to buy stake from Liihen's largest shareholder. The offer was later left to lapse. Fast forward that to today when Liihen has been registering improving profits and high dividend yield, it is not a surprise at all if there is a buyer keen to buy the same stake at a PE of 7 to 10 which translate into RM2.10 to RM3.00 a share.

Posted by sense maker > 2013-07-24 18:40 | Report Abuse

From the current price of RM1.72, the upside is quite big at 22% towards the first target price of RM2.10. EPS of RM0.30 for whole year of 2013 should not be a problem.

As the world economy continues to mend, a EPS of RM0.40 is achievable for 2014. If dividend is raised from the current annualised RM0.14 to RM0.16 or RM0.2, this company deserves to be valued at RM2.50 to RM3 a share.

Posted by jennylee1382 > 2013-07-30 10:12 | Report Abuse

is it time to buy in

Posted by sense maker > 2013-07-30 13:42 | Report Abuse

The management's comment in Q1 2013 was that it was operating with excess capacity and some customers were holding relatively high level of stocks. This is a negative remark. Besides, Q1 2013 EPS of 10sen was also partly a result of some deferred shipment from Q4 2012.

But I like the management as it is very prudent in giving out commentary on outlook. The strengthening of USD from May 13 onwards definitely helps on profitability.

All-in, my estimate of Q2 2013 EPS is 6sen to 8sen EPS. Looking further, Q3 2013 should be an improvement over Q2 2013 as USD strengthens further as we type now and management has more time looking for more customers as alternative to some customers that hold high inventory. I stick to my estimate of RM0.30 EPS for the whole 2013.

I expect a dividend of 3sen per share in Q2 2014, although 4sen is equally likely. Being in net cash position and relatively little capex, the most appealing part of Liihen is its ability to increase dividend rather easily, if the management wants, giving a boost to share price almost immediately.

I also like the fact that its NTA of RM2.30 per share is backed almost overwhelmingly by factory buildings which were last revalued in 2009. Even if we exclude the going-concern value of the business, the buildings alone are worth RM2.30 per share.

But of course, the main reason I like Liihen is because of its low valuation of PE 5 only, high dividend yield of >8% and a profitbale business model that looks sustainable after they have obtained the right to plant for rubber wood, thereby making raw material's cost and quality more controllable.

Liihen should be traded at RM2.10 a share now, not RM1.70. RM2.10 means a PE of 7 and a dividend yield of 6.7%, which to me, is more reasonable a valuation for Liihen.

Posted by jennylee1382 > 2013-08-01 19:50 | Report Abuse

sense maker when is the right time to buy

Posted by DJDJ > 2013-08-01 20:25 | Report Abuse

no intention, just for sharing...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdXzw4UOGMQ

Posted by sense maker > 2013-08-02 12:21 | Report Abuse

DJDJ, thanks for sharing. Jenny, to me, Liihen is a strong buy till it reaches RM2.10, despite some negative views on governance of Liihen. The related party transactions are small as a % over total turnover- defnintely not 40% as claimed in one post there. This is a share which no funds have bought in yet. When funds go in for its dividend income, this share should trade between RM2.10 to RM3. If retail investors are influenced by negative perception, the share price will have difficulty climbing up to RM2.10. This suits long-term investors well as they can enter at current low price of RM1.62. I have confidence in the sustainability of its profitability and dividend over the coming 3 years. EPS a year should be at least RM0.30 on average for the next 3 years.

Posted by jennylee1382 > 2013-08-02 16:34 | Report Abuse

TQVM sense maker

Posted by bwchng > 2013-08-02 16:37 | Report Abuse

is it good stock to buy in?

Posted by DJDJ > 2013-08-04 01:10 | Report Abuse

TQvm sense maker. KIV now, good day.

Posted by nobody > 2013-08-07 10:12 | Report Abuse

finally its moving....

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-08 14:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by KC Loh > May 20, 2013 04:38 PM | Report Abuse X
visit again when this share touches 1.80. I think that is possible!

Posted by jennylee1382 > May 20, 2013 04:44 PM | Report Abuse
now is 1.41 sen buy now need to hold for how long only reach 1.80

so jennylee1382, what is your update?

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-08 14:17 | Report Abuse

and if you indeed have bought, good to start thinking of reduction. Fairly valued already. you can just wait and see how much market wants it to climb!

Posted by 55880955 > 2013-08-12 14:56 | Report Abuse

first bus stop is at 2.05,from techn standpoint of view.

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-12 15:52 | Report Abuse

start disposing...... thanks Liihen! :)

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-14 11:46 | Report Abuse

disposing......

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-15 11:01 | Report Abuse

luckily cabut.......

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-19 14:55 | Report Abuse

last of my liihen sold. Thank you Liihen, until next time adios! :)

Posted by Punesh18 > 2013-08-20 12:06 | Report Abuse

Enter enter now?? pls advice

Posted by wm83 > 2013-08-26 09:01 | Report Abuse

kc, dropped a lot today??

Posted by wm83 > 2013-08-26 09:03 | Report Abuse

ooo reading the report...

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-08-26 09:14 | Report Abuse

What happened to Liihen. Any comments OTB ?

Posted by htyeap125 > 2013-08-26 09:18 | Report Abuse

1H profit down by 20.55%

Posted by wm83 > 2013-08-26 09:21 | Report Abuse

ya... after reading the report... dia tu lag!

Posted by sephiroth > 2013-08-26 09:26 | Report Abuse

so little volume but share price down so much?

Posted by sense maker > 2013-08-26 09:31 | Report Abuse

In Q2 2013, RM1m has been paid or provided for bonus and incentive so that this need not be done only in Q4, as was the case in 2012. EPS for 2013 is revised down from 30sen to 25sen. At RM1.7, PE is 6.8. Not expensive a counter. The counter is dominated by retail players as there is no fund which has bought in. So, the sell-off this morning is expected largely because of the slash in dividend for Q2 as well. For long-term investors, again, this is a good chance to accumulate.

Posted by sephiroth > 2013-08-26 09:36 | Report Abuse

Profit before tax for the current quarter under reviewed downed 58.34% was mainly due to the lower sales generated that caused the inefficiency in the utilisation of the production lines, hence increased the direct manufacturing costs in most of the factories, especially the increase in the wage rate.
Revenue for the current quarter dipped 16.02%, caused by the reduction in export sales mainly due to the sluggish demand for the bedroom sets products in Lii Hen Furniture Sdn Bhd and Favourite Design Sdn Bhd.
Lower sales generated and higher direct manufacturing expenses in the current quarter resultant the profit before tax to decrease 55.20%. The higher direct manufacturing expenses in the current quarter were mainly due to increase in the wage rate, more overtime incurred due to shortage of workers and payment and provision of bonus and incentive amounted to RM636,000 and RM375,000 respectively.

Posted by Eng Jt > 2013-08-26 09:56 | Report Abuse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dJJV1CPKrA

Posted by Saturn > 2013-08-26 10:21 | Report Abuse

OTB, the share price is dropping....How?
I don't doubt MR Ooi's TA ability however furniture industries are known and infamous for their characteristics similar to those written in "Debacle of Liihen"........in accounts and perception. Pls read on Kenmark, OCI, Kimble and a few more for u to check.

Posted by harveylai313 > 2013-08-26 10:27 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : There is a serious issue on corporate governance in the company sparked by the video at AGM http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7v2FrvxWESA

This may be the beginning of the downhill in Lii Hen stock price

Posted by ismailkarin > 2013-08-26 10:44 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : The Q2 result may be down by 20.55%, but hey look the board is also taking a precautionary action by slashing the dividend to 1.5%, half of what it used to be at previous announcement of results. Obviously future results will also not up to par going forward the way they are conserving cash now. Anyway, they are already 2 months into the physical Q3, only they know how bad it will be. Today's sell-down maybe the doing of insiders!

Posted by janetooi001 > 2013-08-26 10:59 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : agreed with you ismail karin

Posted by janetooi001 > 2013-08-26 11:05 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : Top loser today

Posted by janetooi001 > 2013-08-26 11:06 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN :利兴工业董事会主席在2012常年股东大会上証实两位公司董事(Tan Bee Eng & Chua Lee Seng)涉嫌一宗欺骗失伩案.根据報导,该案由森州警方落力调查中

Posted by janetooi001 > 2013-08-26 11:15 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : The Chairman of Lii Hen Industries Bhd confirmed to the shareholders at the 19th AGM held on June 25, 2013 that 2 directors of Lii Hen are the suspects in a CBT/cheating case of a police investigation as reported by the New Straits Time on May 29, 2013 (Page 12 Prime News)

Beside the Q2 result, today's big drop has anything to do with this report?

Posted by janetooi001 > 2013-08-26 11:29 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : 2 fires in 2 years. One wiped the factory and the other burnt down the hostel. Beware of the boomy trap on this company

Posted by alwong1111 > 2013-08-26 11:35 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : furniture inventory to high, how to sell? burn the warehouse loh and claim insurance. Bangla complained company not paying minimum wages, burn their hostel down loh

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2013-08-26 11:38 | Report Abuse

“Somebody once said that in looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if you don’t have the first, the other two will kill you. You think about it; it’s true. If you hire somebody without [integrity], you really want them to be dumb and lazy.”
― Warren Buffett

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-26 11:41 | Report Abuse

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > Aug 26, 2013 11:38 AM | Report Abuse
“Somebody once said that in looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if you don’t have the first, the other two will kill you. You think about it; it’s true. If you hire somebody without [integrity], you really want them to be dumb and lazy.” ― Warren Buffett

speaks of someone who has been peddling his mythical Inari and warrants in this forum eh? LOL

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-08-26 11:44 | Report Abuse

wahh... still can come back pretending to talk like sifu! Frank Soweto, have you manage to get the book? hahahahahaha

Posted by alwong1111 > 2013-08-26 11:44 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : From the way an AGM is conducted, you can already tell the integrity of the peoples manning the company. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7v2FrvxWESA

Posted by ismailkarin > 2013-08-26 11:54 | Report Abuse

my advice:

S

E

L

L

Posted by janetooi001 > 2013-08-26 12:02 | Report Abuse

利兴工业有限公司(Lii Hen Industries Berhad,主板7089)的數位董事涉嫌於2004年向大馬­­股票交易所發佈一系列虚假交易及虚假公告, 导致一班無辜小股东在買了利兴股票之後惨虧金額高達马幣一亿五千­­万。
根据内幕消息, 在2004年3月数位利兴董事及相关人仕曾经以特惠价委托一名股­­票经纪脱售一批超过五百万股的利兴股票。 利兴股价一度由$1.30上漲至最高$6.80。 这期间該數名董事及相关人仕屡次向大马股票交易所作出股票交易申­­報, 但证据显示其中涉嫌虚假交易价格, 导致投资者誤以为该股票"长升长有"而踴躍扯购。
由於该股票交易熾熱，因而引起大马股票交易所在2004年8月1­­0日向利兴作出書面询问。该公司董事部卻回复說没有任何重大事­务­需要公佈(Unusual Market Action)。该文告有如野火燎原, 导致该公司股票在这期间(8月10日至10月27日）一度飞涨至­­$6.80

Posted by janetooi001 > 2013-08-26 12:05 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : 事实上，在大马股票交易所"上市公司须及时与据实報导"的操守准­­則下，該數名董事及相关人仕們已经在資本巿塲證券法令2007­年­下觸犯了第369條之虚假公告(False & Misleading Statement), 其中又涉嫌欺骗。 警方將会遵循刑事法典第420条文作出深入調查。
該股票後来在2004年10月27号在大马股票交易所一声"指定­­交易股項"令下狂跌至$0.60。由於股价是在沒有買家扶持之­下­而急速下瀉，因而导至了一众小股东们巌重虧损了马幣一亿五千­万。­事實証明，若非该公司發出那誌期2004年8月10日之虚­假文告­, 一众小股东们極有可能己经逃过这一人為的浩劫。

Posted by harveylai313 > 2013-08-26 12:24 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : Stay tuned to my 3rd part on the shenanigans behind LIIHEN 2004 debacle this afternoon :)

Posted by tjhldg > 2013-08-26 12:40 | Report Abuse

integrity , integrity , integrity .. the words that the board of director should repeat every nite b4 they go to bed ...

Posted by ismailkarin > 2013-08-26 15:04 | Report Abuse

LIIHEN : I refer to the articles on liihen.blogspot.com, the apparent crime of cheating by the directors would have been that they gave false representation in August 2004 which caused the stock to skyrocketed, from under $3 in August to $ 6.80 at one point before it crashed on Oct 28. No wonder the loss alleged is about $150m or more! I hope the remisier will reveal the real inside TRUTH so that the actual perpetrators are brought to justice.

Stay away from LIIHEN for now, bro