main influence maybe the broking house in bangsar as they dictate the order...like putrajayalah decide which contract to give to which crony. but i think i will reserve my opinion until after few more episodes first
liihen 90% sales are denominated in USD. The USD had appreciated by more than 9% against ringgit since March/April. With the strong USD, yet the sales of Liihen is down and dividend cut in half. What do you think is cooking in the furniture factory?????
Ever since the activists www.liihen.com came to the scene, the volume has been withering. Investors have been alarmed watching what had happened in the past. Memory of Kimble and SilverBird are just too fresh to ditch away!
1) RM4.8m paid for rights of use of a reserved land. There has been delay in granting of approval to take vacant possession of the said land. It is unascertainable if and when Liihen will get that approval. This delays Liihen's effort in moving into upstream activities to better manage rubber wood cost. With rubber wood cost low now, it may not make much of a difference but in longer run, planting for own rubber wood is a move in the right direction to better manage rubber wood price volatility. In the short run, there is a risk of a full or partial impairment charge of this RM4.8m for financial year end 2013 or 2014. But impairment charge is a non-cash item which will affect just profit before and after tax, typically in Q4 P&L.
2) Stock level as at 30 June 13 suggests a turnover of RM70m to RM75m for Q3 2014, based on normal stock turnover cycles. That is the basis of me predicting 4sen to 6 sen of EPS for Q3 2014 to be announced in the third or forth week of Nov 13. Unless of course, a pleasnat or nasty surprise springs up later, which is possible.
3) Looking to another player in the same industry, Poh Huat (furniture co based in Vietnam and Msia) has been registering better sales and profits with improved sales orders especially in the latest quarter. Poh Huat management sees outlook for furniture sales order as brighter ahead with EURO turning around slowly. Poh Huat recorded EPS of 6sen+ before the RM6m provision mainly because of its Vietnam's plants in the latest quarter. Poh Huat, unlike Liihen with a net cash of Rm20m, however is in a small net debt position and has less ability to pay good dividend. If Poh Huat sales order recovery is any indication, Liihen should be able to improve its sales back to RM80 to RM90m a quarter in Q4 2013 when it secures new customers and its existing customers have finished running down their stocks.
Share price in the long run always moves with fundamentals and is forward- looking by 6 months at least. I maintain my estimate of EPS of Liihen at RM0.30 a year for the next 5 years. Buying now means you get a payback period of 4.7 years if my estimate holds. If the actual EPS falls short of my estimate by 50% to RM0.2 a year, you are investing for a payback period of 7 years or a PE of 7, which is by no means expensive. So, the margin of safety is big. I think the current price is attractive for a 40% gain in 12 months time or shorter. Liihen has RM0.67 cash per share, which is also an important buffer for any economic shock.
sense maker you are talking some sense here !!! the earlier others probably the same old person bring out the same old story over and over again ,really old 2004 . we are now in 2013 not going backwards to almost ten years back . look ahead !!
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
simonfoo0123
92 posts
Posted by simonfoo0123 > 2013-09-30 16:40 | Report Abuse
现在利兴面对太多负面的消息, 内传马来亜銀行取消部份的银行透支便利, 不知真有此事?
according to a comment here, the RM7m facility to Favourite Design was withdrawn by MBB :(