Finally dropped to own TP65. Revised down to TP50 amid poor results and weakening market conditions. 38 will be the jackpot which I would like to see it happens.
Those that are invested in this company will need to be a bit patient when expecting a higher PAT.
I believe that the jump in the profit level will only come once the multi storey warehouse is completed which is expected sometime in 3Q19. The warehouse will increase the company's courier capacity from the current 10,000 parcels/ day to up to 200,000 parcels/day. Breakeven can be achieve when the company reaches 100,000 parcels/ day. Currently the division is still in the red wit EBIT of -RM4.91mil. Expect higher losses until the completion of the warehouse.
The company has actually been able to grow the other 2 main division (Total Logistic and Procurement Logistic) at a combine rate of 43%. However this comes at an expense of margin (drop from a combine of 7.9% Ebit margin to only 6.1%) due to very high competitive logistic market (did not help that some platform owners like Lazada has started their own logistic services).
With all this in mind investors need to be prepare for a lower PAT in FY19 vs FY18. I am targeting a PAT of RM10mil in FY19 vs RM12mil for FY18. In terms of PE this translate to a Fwd PE of 19.1x. But do take not, most analyst expect profit to grow in 2021 onwards (assuming completion of warehouse, 100k parcel per day for courier service and not so high margin compression for the total and procurement logistics businesses).
Those that are invested in the company will need to be patient and need to look beyond 2021. Management has track record of delivering revenue growth in the past.
For those that have shorter investment horizon, i would suggest them to find companies that could offer earnings growth in 2019.
With that in mind, i recommend them to look at MBMR. The company is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest. Valuation is cheap at only 5.3x PE (based on target FY18 PATAMI of RM145mil. 9m PATAMI is already at RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.5x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year 4Q17.
Market missed to take note of the outstanding performance of the Procurement Services...
Stripping out Courier Services which just started operation from the equation, the bottomline of FY18 is actually slightly BETTER than FY17..
Once the volume of Courier Services pick up from the present 10K parcels per day to some sizeable breakeven point or surpassing the breakeven point (the max cap is 150K parcels per day) it will be a complete different scenario.
The capability of Korean Courier Services Co, CJ Korea Parcel Services, which is number 1 in Korea and no 19 in the world is underrated by the myopic market...
TREASURY SHARES During the current financial year, the Company bought back 3,968,900 of its issued ordinary shares from the open market at average price of RM0.63 per share. The total consideration paid for the purchase was RM2,505,819. The Company held as treasury shares a total of 3,968,900 of its 394,229,890 issued ordinary shares. The treasury shares are held in accordance with Section 127(4)(b) of the Companies Act 2016 at a carrying amount of RM2,505,819 as disclosed in Note 22 to the Financial Statements.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jeffreyteck
4,247 posts
Posted by Jeffreyteck > 2018-04-25 10:19 | Report Abuse
Still long way for TP 65.