Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-05-30 20:08 | Report Abuse

"MBSB serves Silver Bird with RM19.6mil claim" http://bit.ly/Nd1wHO - This shouldn't be too big a shock because we already know SilverBird is having cashflow problems. But what's crucial are the new management's plans to handle the various debts and what their actions will be after receiving the forensic report on irregularities. By the way, the company secretary has been replaced, according to a filing with BSKL today.

Posted by cheongmd > 2012-05-30 20:27 | Report Abuse

Is the right time now to buy-in the SILVER? Pls comment...

Posted by petracot > 2012-05-31 00:02 | Report Abuse

Important thing to consider now is the actual losses due to the 12 irregularities. a couple of months ago, the management estimated that the total exposure was about 112 million,that is about 28 sen per share. Now that the Forensic report is out, the management should be able to determine the actual losses. If the actual figure is less than 112 m, that will be good news. However, if the figure is worse than 112 m, share price may take a different direction. Personally, I won't do anything until the truth is out.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-05-31 12:07 | Report Abuse

For speculators, this is the type of company which you can either make a very tidy profit with or otherwise. One or the other. The question - as with other similar companies - is *when*. If you had bought late last week (and sold earlier), you would be laughing and in a really jolly mood right now. But if you had come in later, you'd likely be quite tense; hoping it will go up again.

I wouldn't dare to answer whether now is the right time to buy. Personally, I might buy if it goes a bit lower (at below 14)... and wait for the next upswing cycle. Remember, there are many contra positions outstanding, with traders who bought at 16-18 sen looking to get out. There will be pressure on the price today and tomorrow, with a downswing more likely than it going up. Perhaps it's more prudent to wait and see first.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-06-11 11:22 | Report Abuse

It appears to be moving today. Good volume.

Posted by waterlily > 2012-06-11 22:36 | Report Abuse

Go baby go. It would perfect the line if can close above 18.5...

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-06-19 16:00 | Report Abuse

13.5 sen appears to be a very strong support. Now it's moving up again. Investors are eagerly waiting for news of its restructuring plan. The management had said this is the priority. Only after that might it even consider some other white knight party from taking over. Whoever that might be, Silverbird wouldn't be sold off at fire sale prices.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-06-19 16:10 | Report Abuse

forget about this silverbird la, even gardenia is having a hard time, and then now there is massiomo , competitor all so strong, why restructure?

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-06-19 16:24 | Report Abuse

Don't just look at the confectionary business but also the *corporate activities* plus *possibilities*. Now, this is a company that's way below its par value of 50 sen. True, it has a lot of debts plus previous poor management. However, this is a company with strong majority shareholders - Tabung Haji and Berjaya. If nothing else, they aren't going to suffer the embarrassment of seeing it go down the drain. There is already the possibility of TH and Felda taking over. And Massimo is eyeing the Silverbird facilities. In my opinion, at this price, it's worth the risk. Just getting to 18 sen will bring in $$$

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-06-19 16:32 | Report Abuse

ppb group use RM 200 millions to set up massimo, i really doubt that they will want to buy silverbird old and outdated facilities.

and tabung haji, the tabung got lubang 1, almost all the stock tabung haji invested is sinking now, pelikan , konsort , silverbird, misc etc etc.

everytime i doing research on company, if i spot TH is in the top 30 shareholders list, i basically just skip it...

Posted by talk2pkc > 2012-07-08 07:44 | Report Abuse

Standby strong rumous someone is slowly cumulating shares and might speed up in coming weeks , could be Berjaya .........

Posted by petracot > 2012-07-09 22:33 | Report Abuse

Recently, Silver Bird reported a loss of RM308 million or closed to 76 sen per share. The Asset Backing has dropped from +52 sen to -23 sen. Think again, who would want to accumulate shares with negative asset value?

Posted by talk2pkc > 2012-07-10 05:29 | Report Abuse

Berjaya , I suppose !!!!

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-07-10 07:28 | Report Abuse

Not just Berjaya but also Tabung Haji. There is talk that the latter two might come together to take over. Cofectionary might not be a sexy business but "Halal" and "Food Business" are something which these two are very interested in, especially with Felda wanting to expand into this.

Berjaya and TH could easily just forget about their investment in Silver Bird because it is chickenfeed, no pun intended, in their portfolios money-wise. However, there is the question of pride - it would be embarrassing for them to see SB go down the drain. They have the resources and I believe they will use it.

But anyway, the current board has said that the priority now is in the restructuring scheme. There will likely be a capital reduction scheme, rights issue etc. to put it on a better footing. Only then will they look into offers to takeover. This way, it won't be a fire sale.

Posted by talk2pkc > 2012-07-16 17:19 | Report Abuse

What do u guys think ..... "Winding Up pettion been served . 90 days fr 12 Jul 2012 over a demand of RM 30M!

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2012-07-16 17:26 | Report Abuse

Restraining Order ? what is that?

Posted by talk2pkc > 2012-07-16 17:42 | Report Abuse

Another words this "could" (but I don't think so and hope not ???) shut down the company if demand is not met !!!

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-08 12:47 | Report Abuse

There seems to be some excitement over the bird today. I wonder if there's some development, or is it just plain speculation?

Posted by Elvis Ng > 2012-08-08 12:58 | Report Abuse

goreng!!!

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2012-08-08 13:12 | Report Abuse

classic case of strong fundamentals but bad management. Im assuming u guys who invest in SB are young, so it enables you to absorb all that suspense and risk... not really for the faint hearted. Unless there is a knight in shining armour to rescue thsi company... its surely going under > the painful way... PN17.16.15... and so on

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-08 14:26 | Report Abuse

Raymond: It's more of "speculating" than "invest" when it comes to counters like this:-) And I would think that it's more suitable for the older ones because of these - the ability to sit it out for the duration.

The shining knight factor is crucial. This is something which speculators are betting on. In a way, Silver Bird seems `better' than a lot of those popular ACE counters and similar penny stocks because of this fact - unlike most of these ACE counters, SB has strong major shareholders in Tabung Haji and Berjaya. While it is true that they can choose to write off their investments, there's also the strong possibility that they would want to save face and salvage something.

Anyway, if one wants to indulge in a bit of high-risk speculation, don't bet the house on counters like this. Something like 20% of the capital spread out over a few counters might bring in some exceptional gains percentage-wise. But one must also be prepared to write off some of it should things not go his way.

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-08-08 20:26 | Report Abuse

old saying in wallstreet to describe this Company "water" just waiting to Liquidate by debtor.

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-08-15 11:53 | Report Abuse

LoL
Berjaya Group Bhd, Disposed 15,400 000 share
Berjaya Capital Bhd, Disposed 15,400 000 Share
Berjaya Corporation Berhad, Disposed 15,400 000 Share
Tan Sri vincent Tan, Disposed 15,400 000 Share
Juara Sejati Sdn Bhd, Disposed 15,400 000 Share
Bizurai Bijak Sdn Bhd, Disposed 15,400 000 Share

No more hope for Shining Armour Knight to save this company, this surely will be "water".

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-15 15:00 | Report Abuse

Don't be quick too write it off. If you are in the stockmarket long enough, you will see how things turn around for various companies. I've seen `dead' companies coming back to life and then prospering. And also market darlings with seemingly strong positions that come down crashing.

Berjaya has disposed the shares in an off-market deal, which means they are not flooded into it. Guess who the buyer is? And do you think the buyer is dumb enough to put up capital for something "if there's no future plan"?

Silver Bird has also obtained a restraining order from the High Court against any move to wind it down, repossess etc. That will give it time to implement the restructuring.

Posted by Hustle > 2012-08-15 15:06 | Report Abuse

That's true don't forget that all the Tabung haji Zakat money also inside there,if wind up,MAS have to sponsor free ticket to Merkah already...

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-08-15 15:22 | Report Abuse

Confectionary isn't a sexy business like oil & gas plus the fact that competition is very stiff. BUT there are parties very interested, especially when they want to add or diversify their existing holdings. And these are national-level companies with the capital. TH's involvement - notice how Ramunia came back from the brink? But it's not just TH in the equation.

Previously, I had ignored this kind of counter since I'm very much into fundamentals (with a touch of technical to try improve the results). But I know from a couple of people who have been in the market since the early 70's. They didn't tell me what exactly is going on. But I do know they have been collecting its shares over stages. They did remind me of one thing though - if you are expecting profits in the next few weeks, you are going to be disappointed. This process will require one to wait a bit.

Time will tell whether they are right. But they are putting their money where their mouths are, so I'm watching SB closely because of that.

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-08-17 18:26 | Report Abuse

Mat, i also been analys this counter, yes this company has proven to have big market share in food indutries, having high volume of product sell and translated to multimillion rough income every year let say total revenue for 2010 is 591 millions, nett profit ''only'' 3.65 millions, the slim profit margin is caused by Human factor missmanagement and Director conflict of interest. this SBGB has absorb all the wrongdoing of the management. if the new owner has plan to save this company ofcause bright future ahead, for yearly income RM500++ million and put the right person to incharge nett profit willl be much-much interesting.

The only problem, if the whole company will be sweep under carpet by court order this company has to sale what ever asset its have to fullfil the debtor demand (bank&3rd party) SBGB will be history. this risk is totally out of my tolerance level, if restructuring succes maybe its not my luck if the Silver Bird going to fly again.

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-08-17 18:37 | Report Abuse

any idea who take berjaya & tan sri vincent share?

Posted by kong73 > 2012-08-17 18:40 | Report Abuse

oil n gas bro...oil n gas..where the action is.

Posted by ashrizal1 > 2012-08-17 19:07 | Report Abuse

kong73, did u mean oil n gas buy SBGB?

Posted by boonchow720 > 2012-08-17 20:09 | Report Abuse

Dear All smart investor, can i knw how to check on SBGB main sharesholder? TQ...im newbie. hehe

Posted by talk2pkc > 2012-08-27 16:48 | Report Abuse

Couldn't disagreed with Mat nor ashrizal, it looks like Lembaga Tabung Haji is still the largest shareholders and Berjaya & Juara still holding a significant amount of shares , so as Kperasi still sitting tight with their holding , the company itself is trading fine and strong brand name , got to be BIG opportunity for some individual to come in with control interest ......... cheap option to run & major owner of a listed company !!! For that reason I "GAMBLE" with my "petty" cash at 0.085& wish me luck , ha ha

Posted by talk2pkc > 2012-08-27 22:19 | Report Abuse

Who is the "unsung" hero who paid 0.50 sen to Vincent Tan for his 15.4m shares and still leave Vincent still holding 17.35% ? RM 78.49m already shown on last year account and it sounds to me a "golden" opportunity for some !!! I suspect there are various back door dealing and been paid above market price !! Watch the space a new individual or group new major shareholders which we will drive price back NORTH ..........

Posted by chyleglat > 2012-08-30 13:12 | Report Abuse

The silver has lost is shines. Internal oxidation has eaten into its shine but hold on there still passionate stakeholders trying to revive it despite very adverse beating. Buy when price reaches RM.05 to RM.06 and wait for the reverse effects.The company still held on to the market share. Run for your life when it reached RM0.15 and enjoy your moonlighting at Halong Bay. LOL

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-09-04 23:36 | Report Abuse

Yet another one - now it's KPF Quality Foods suing Silver Bird for RM24 mil for non-payment. Sorry, dudes - SB doesn't have any money right now. And you can't do anything much just yet because it has a restraining order from the High Court.

So, the best thing for everybody is this - just agree to its restructuring plan. Most probably these creditors will be given new shares in SB after the company undergoes a capital reduction exercise and calls for a rights issue. Don't want them?? Well, that will mean you won't get back anything! So be a good boy and just collect your SB shares ya. Better these, which you all can sell in the market, than wind it up and get a mere fraction of the debts.

Posted by pirate99 > 2012-09-05 00:38 | Report Abuse

Yeah.. KPF need to take it or leave with empty hands... ;)

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-09-05 12:36 | Report Abuse

Will have to hang on tight now that it's gone lower. But I'm prepared for the possibility of losing most of my capital in this one if things don't work as I have anticipated. This is my "very high risk" counter which MUST give a minimum 50% return for the risk I'm taking. I believe the management will announce the restructuring plan in a month or two. We'll see how it goes from there.

Posted by pilato > 2012-09-05 18:13 | Report Abuse

I am a newbie.my ave price is 0.8.How low can it go?Mat Cendana,may I know your ave price?

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-09-05 20:29 | Report Abuse

pilato - This isn't a counter which a `normal' investor should invest in. I wouldn't advise or recommend it to anyone. The reason that I'm in is because I have a certain percentage of my capital specifically for very high risk counters. I'm holding on to something I had read somewhere: "It's better to have 10% of your capital invested in high risk companies than having all of it in companies that pay only 10%."

These are longer term speculations (not investment) where one will have to wait AT LEAST one year for things to move... if they do move. I will hurt if I lose this part of my capital, but neither will it be severe enough to drive me to the along:-) I don't put everything in Silver Bird though - have spread it to a few other counters. The rationale is this (assuming it's 3 very high-risk counters): in the worst-case situation where all three `bungkus', I will hurt as mentioned above. But if one goes my way, it should be enough for me to break even, at least. If two, then that's a sure overall profit on my capital. The minimum return MUST BE at least 50%.

With SB, the average price is now at 10 sen. If it goes lower, then I will add some more. How low will it go? I don't know - could be close to 0.01 if its restructuring plan fails and if (when) its creditors file a winding up petition. But if it goes down to 0.05, I don't think it will go much lower.

Since you are a newbie, it's much better to buy something more secure - MK Land, for instance. Its net tangible asset is 0.89 but is now only selling at 0.36. Try and read the analysts' reports and target prices at the MK Land thread.

Posted by captros > 2012-09-06 00:02 | Report Abuse

Mat,
Good investment strategy on SB. Myself too has been "force" to accumulate to almost 1000 lots. It may not be a big amount, but assuming all go burst, it will be painful.

No question of the ROI if SB is finally revived. It surely be more that your 50% target. I would expect minimum 300%. Time is not the issue. We will till end 2013. The only worry is what would be the ultimate support level. It goes deeper everyday into the black hole. Another company is suing over 100Million yesterday.

Now, the price is going further south to 6 or 5 sen. Will it stop there? Should we add on to reduce the gap with our average price?

What's our strategy now? Will your 10sen AP will good enough? Hope you don’t mind sharing.

Posted by talk2pkc > 2012-09-06 00:19 | Report Abuse

Mat welcome to the "unsung" idiot club , I was holding many lots since Mar12 and mayb my emotion overtook my logic & knowledge, a brand that u know since I was kid and surely someone somewhere will take it over etc etc But it looks like I was dreaming !!!! Mayb we should alert NineTology to take over much cheaper , ha ha
Having saying that I m still convince it will carrying on trading for many years to come otherwise I am it would hv stop trading by now ???? Black ripon or maybe Yellow ripon on my tree .......

Posted by pirate99 > 2012-09-06 00:23 | Report Abuse

Wahh so many seniors in the boat already... Wait for me ya... Eyeing closely...

Will have to build my guts first.. ;)

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-09-06 07:42 | Report Abuse

If it goes to 0.05, I will definitely buy some more to solidify my position in the unsung idiot club:-) Or when it shows signs of activity in volume, price or news. Hopefully it will be the latter.

One of the main reasons why I've chosen SB is because of a couple of people I know have been accumulating it. And these are people who are very successful in the stockmarket although they have had misses too. They have included seeming losers in their porfolios over the years. A few had gone bust but those that pulled through after the ICU returned hefty gains of more than 100%. These more than made up for the counters that went bust. The important thing is to only put in capital that you can afford to lose without hurting too much.

Things look very bleak for SB, that's for sure. And it is reflected in the price. But I'm betting on these cards to happen: (1) the restructuring plan, which should be announced before the court injunction is over, will be acceptable and viable (2) that some party will mount a takeover. Not difficult at all since its current market capitalisation is only RM70 mil. "But why would anyone want to take over a debt-ridden company?," you might ask. I don't know exactly. But for some people, it would be of use. Even besi buruk has value.

At 0.05, one won't have much to lose - unless if it suddenly goes bust and you fail to get back anything. At 0.10, that's a 100% profit. But if it does get back up, I don't think it will stop at 10 sen but more. Well, this is what speculation is about.

By the way, to put things in perspective: if one buys a solid counter like Axiata at its current 6.22, is there any guarantee that he will make a profit? Or is it impossible for the price to go to 5.22 or 4.22? That's the stockmarket - there is no guarantee and we have seen winners turn into losers and the other way round. Silver Bird just *might* rise from the ashes just yet. Even if it doesn't turn into a phoenix, getting back to just half its 50 sen par would be great.

Posted by Captros > 2012-09-06 14:08 | Report Abuse

The Star reported that "The company said it would formulate a regularisation plan to address its PN17 status. The company, among other things, was required to submit a regularisation plan on possible changes in its business direction and policy to the Securities Commission and Bursa Malaysia within 12 months from the date it was ascribed the PN17 status, or face delisting". 12 month end on 28 Feb 2012.

The preliminary plans include capital reduction, rights issue, debt settlement involving cash repayment and terming out of part of the liabilities, debt to equity conversion, waiver of debt and liquidation of subsidiaries.

and then in May at SB's AGM it Chairman said that SB will be regularised before discussing the entrance of a white knight.

and then nothing happen after that.

It look like stakeholders including the creditors and banks are not agreeable with their plans.

Meanwhile the price from 16 sen to 7 sen today.

unsung idiot club continue.

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-09-06 15:59 | Report Abuse

But at least there's interest in it and it's up 2 sen today:-) Is something finally brewing?

Posted by pirate99 > 2012-09-06 16:01 | Report Abuse

Wahh people rush in to buy SB... ;)

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-09-06 16:05 | Report Abuse

And I was slow...waiting for 0.06 to average down and suddenly there's activity. Maybe I should average up instead? But I must know what's going on first.

Posted by richman > 2012-09-06 16:11 | Report Abuse

they push up to avoid force selling or to close the gap

Posted by talk2pkc > 2012-09-06 16:31 | Report Abuse

Matt, indeed the "unsung idiot club" is still very much kicking and damp I miss the boat again , just too busy with my other 38 counters !! I m sure I wld had q to buy few more at 0.065 ish !! I hv full of confident in Dato Dr Gan , a man with great professionalism & integrity & respect & general , he hv no hesitation to call "D Day" by now if there r no more fuel in the tank !!!!
Equally it is important to keep this "unsung idiot club" going so that at least we have the joy (thou it might not b any financial gain.....) to see Dato Dr "General" Gan succeed in getting a special damages compensation fr the 3 former directors ....... RM125m !!

Posted by Mat Cendana > 2012-09-06 16:36 | Report Abuse

Regrets, regrets... I didn't expect this; not so quickly after yesterday's fall. Would definitely have bought at 0.05, that's for sure, and would have at 0.06 too if it looks stable. Those who went in at 0.065 earlier have gotten their reward this afternoon. Quite significant percentage-wise.