Maximum price paid for each share purchased ($$): 0.159 Number of shares purchased retained in treasury (units): 6,500,000 (6.5 million shares) Date Announced: 10 Mar 2020
U.S. shale growth is about to decline, becoming an immediate victim of the Saudi-Russian price war.
Saudi Aramco said that it would increase oil production to 12.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April, a shocking escalation of the war for market share. That level of output is believed to be beyond what Aramco can produce on a sustainable basis. In other words, Saudi Arabia is going all-out to flood the market.
Also, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman didn’t sound interested in meeting with Russia anytime soon. “I fail to see the wisdom for holding meetings in May-June that would only demonstrate our failure in attending to what we should have done in a crisis like this and taking the necessary measures,” Prince Abdulaziz told Reuters.
According to Energy Intelligence, Saudi Arabia is conducting budgeting exercises to game out scenarios in which oil crashes to between $12 to $20 per barrel, and will even look at an extreme scenario in which oil falls below $10.
Russia says it can withstand the price war at $25 to $30 per barrel for 6 to 10 years. Neither side appears willing to budge.
“Monday will go down as one of the bleakest market days in the history of the energy sector,” Raymond James wrote in a note. “Was this capitulation day? It certainly feels like it... it is hard to imagine how much worse sentiment can get.” Related: Russia Fires Back: Could Boost Oil Production By 500,000 Bpd
As a result, the immediate victim will be U.S. shale. “[O]il should bottom out when producers begin physically shutting in wells, which is indeed what set the floor four years ago,” the investment bank added.
The reaction was swift. With share prices in freefall, the number of shale companies announcing budget cuts multiplied at the start of the week. Diamondback Energy and Parsley Energy immediately announced plans to cut spending and reduce drilling activity.
Canadian oil company Cenovus Energy slashed 2020 capex by 32 percent and its production guidance by 5 percent. Ovintiv said it would cut spending and tried to reassure skittish investors that it had enough liquidity. Marathon Oil cut spending by $500 million.
Even Chevron admitted that it might need to cut spending, just days after it unveiled lofty goals on free cash flow over the next five years. “We are reviewing alternatives to reduce capital expenditures, that are expected to lower short-term production and preserve long-term value,” Chevron said in a statement to Reuters late on Monday. Chevron was the first oil major to suggest that it might cut spending, and the oil giant said that it needs $55 per barrel in order to cover its spending and shareholder payouts.
At these prices almost no shale well drilled today can make money. Rystad Energy says just a handful of companies have breakevens lower than today’s oil price. Friezo Loughrey of data firm Oil Well Partners LLC told Bloomberg that Permian breakevens are closer to $68 per barrel if investors want an adequate return within 24 months. Today, prices are trading at half of that. Related: Saudi Arabia's Archenemy Is Taking Advantage Of The Oil War
“Many US fracking companies already had their backs to the wall before the price slump due to high debts and financing difficulties,” Commerzbank wrote in a note. “Drilling activity declined continuously until mid-January, and has since stagnated at a low level.”
The one-two combo of the coronavirus pandemic and the Saudi-Russia price war could deliver a knockout blow to U.S. shale.
But perspectives on the impact on production vary. JBC Energy said that they “prefer a more cautious call on US supply declines,” adding that it may take a few months before production begins to fall.
But others see an immediate retreat. “A decline in US shale oil production of 1-2m bl/day from current total US oil production of 13.1m bl/day is natural to expect,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said in a statement. “We now think that a last-minute deal between Russia and OPEC before the expiry of the current cuts at the end of March 2020 is very unlikely. Russia has probably firmly decided that now is the time to pull away the rug from under the feet of the shale oil producers, so now is the time for the second shale oil reset.”
ts1122-I'm here to help sincerely-famous line used by conmen and politicians!!Sardin is definitely right-idss conman!!lol Claims share is worth 7 cents but spends time talking cock here!And people supposed to listen to him because he told to sell at 20 cents-so funny!! Should have told Armada boys to sell at 50 cents!!And should have told Dayang boys to sell at 2.50!!So easy to talk utter nonsense ts1122!!!lol
Stock is money games.. Big boys always win.. Small retailer especially contra always lost money.. If wanna make money..be idss loh.. Stock easy to down rather than up..
Guys, ever since Feb 12th, 2020, when price traded at 0.26, SMA 200 already crossover > SMA 50, it was already a Death Cross one month ago, and that was the time traders need to sell all and wait for the downtrend completed then only buy back at much much lower price.
Now the price already dropped for a month since the Death Cross happened.
What Does The Death Cross Tell You? The death cross occurs when a short-term moving average (typically 50-day SMA) crosses over a major long-term moving average (typically 200-day SMA) to the downside and is interpreted by analysts and traders as signaling a definitive bear turn in a market.
and my 2 cents advice to day traders, unless you are very experience and highly professional contra players , do not play contra on KNM, the probability that you will lose is much more then you will gain.
during a definitive bear turn, hardly a normal traders like us can gain. what we can do is patiently wait for the downtrend ended, and reverse to uptrend during a golden cross (when SMA 50 crossover > SMA 200, opposite direction vs. current trend), then only we enter, ride with the uptrend, NOT downtrend.
@sardin81 just hold on to your shares... if you dont want to buy nevermind. Just dont sell.. let them suffer for manipulating KNM share price. 11/03/2020 4:18 PM
@maxprofit2020 and my 2 cents advice to day traders, unless you are very experience and highly professional contra players , do not play contra on KNM, the probability that you will lose is much more then you will gain.
during a definitive bear turn, hardly a normal traders like us can gain. what we can do is patiently wait for the downtrend ended, and reverse to uptrend during a golden cross (when SMA 50 crossover > SMA 200, opposite direction vs. current trend), then only we enter, ride with the uptrend, NOT downtrend. 11/03/2020 9:18 PM
Please advise us when the downtrend cycle ended. I'm keen to add more at a bargain price.
I just did something similar for Armada, Sapura, Alam, Velesto, Serba, Icon and Alam on Monday panic selling..
Good Morning Sardin81 and ngs98, I look forward to your ridiculous KNM propaganda and mid-day entertainment. it is a pleasure to watch you abuse people's opinions and your random name-calling of those who can read past your rantings. These stories of how short-sellers (IDSS) are the reason the stock price drops is all utter nonsense. Short Selling is a normal trading practice that affects the market in the same way normal trading does. Some people buy some people to sell. the price when not being manipulated by either you and your false propaganda machine or market makers shuffling things around determines itself as all other stocks do. your glorious story of grand conspiracies of IDSS does not make up for those who bought at 0.40 and now see wrong you have always advised people. You are not legally qualified to advise people to buy or sell stock and should stop helping people lose investments. Where is your license? Yes,I agree on a buy at .07, but no higher. Anybody notice there are no more institutional investors? Wonder why? Fundamentals speak for themselves.
Aiyaa.. don't everyday discuss the share price laa.. since risk8888 posted about ethanol, let's discuss on ethanol... Let me start to raise my concern first:
1. Impress Ethanols main product is anhydrous bio-ethanol for transportation. Since KNM ethanol produced for transportation used, any related to disinfection's ethanol? Are them same thing? Lol Reference: http://www.knm-group.com/knm_unit-knmthailand.htm
2. Price movement of Ethanol? Since crude oil price is dropping heavily, and Ethanol as a complementary goods of oil consumption, I can see only price reduction in ethanol on economics perspective?
All in all, we need to have a steadily crude oil as well. There are a few major application of ethanol including Industrial Solvent, Fuel/Fuel Additive, Bacteriacide/Disinfectant, Beverages, Personal Care and etc and fuel segment to dominate the market demand. Ethanol price and crude oil price having positive relationship, with fixed output/production, better price means better revenue.
unless you own all the national banks of the world , you wont have the cash to push up the falling stock market. the trend now is downward , going south . never fight the trend …. you will only drown if you go against it.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
tkl88
8,712 posts
Posted by tkl88 > 2020-03-11 16:45 | Report Abuse
Immediate Announcement on Shares Buy Back
KNM GROUP BERHAD
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3032473
Maximum price paid for each share purchased ($$): 0.159
Number of shares purchased retained in treasury (units): 6,500,000 (6.5 million shares)
Date Announced: 10 Mar 2020