Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-12-28 15:18 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-28 15:24 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-28 15:26 | Report Abuse

Haha see Callvin is cursed ppl kena stroke … look likely he is Angin naik Kepala liaw …..

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-28 15:33 | Report Abuse

Palm oil shares

In year 2019 when cpo was rm2200 cost of cpo production was Rm1400
Profit rm800

Enough to pay bank loan only

Now cpo rm4000 cost of production rm2200 or less

Profit rm1800

More than enough to pay bank loan and also lots of cash to pay good dividends

This is why best to buy and hold palm oil shares

Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-12-28 15:46 |

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Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-12-28 17:02 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-28 17:03 |

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Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-28 19:35 | Report Abuse

Happy evening

Today Chairman bought 500,000 shares at Rm1. 08

Only sane thing

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-28 20:25 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-28 20:25 |

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Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2022-12-29 06:29 | Report Abuse

Forward looking statement on plantations and millings of CPO

With impact arising from the drought weather conditions in South America and Canada in early of the year, Russia/Ukraine conflict since February 2022 as well as the export restriction policy of Indonesia, the disruption of supply of many commodities has caused surge in prices of commodities as well as vegetable oils have surged to a very high level. Under such volatile market conditions, CPO price has also jumped to an unprecedented level above RM8,000 per MT in early March 2022.

However, following the change in Indonesia’s policy to boost its CPO export, the average CPO price for July 2022 plunged sharply to RM4,100 per MT, recording a drop of more than RM2,000 per MT as compared to the preceding month, and this is the biggest drop in monthly average CPO price in history. CPO price has further plunged sharply to around RM3,300 per MT level in September 2022 before a steady recovery to the current level at around RM4,000 per MT.

The movement of CPO price has become highly unpredictable, hence the Group will continue to monitor the impact of volatile pricing on the performance of the Group.

Although the current high production season which might cause pressure on CPO price, the management expects the average CPO price for the remaining period of the financial year 2023 could remain around RM4,000 per MT and is of the view that the Group could still benefit from the current level of CPO price especially the plantation operations.

Having said that, the Group has also faced challenges such as significant surge in cost of fertiliser likely caused by high international shipping costs as well as the belligerence between Russia and Ukraine, and higher labour costs as a result of shortage of foreign workers and the revised minimum wages effective from May 2022.

Based on the above, we expect the Group to perform well and could achieve a record high revenue and profit for the financial year 2023.

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 07:47 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 07:50 |

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Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2022-12-29 07:55 | Report Abuse

TSH Resources Berhad TSH (KLSE) versus Kim Loong Resources Bhd KMLOONG (KLSE)

Company TSH KMLOONG
Mkt cap 1.49B 1.78B
Employees 7,216 1,392
P/E ratio 3.13 11.03
Div yield 7.41% 5.43%

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2022-12-29 07:59 | Report Abuse

Company TSH (KLSE) FGV (KLSE)
Mkt cap 1.49B 4.89B
Employees 7,216 15,577
P/E ratio 3.13 3.37
Div yield 7.41% 5.97%

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2022-12-29 08:07 | Report Abuse

Company TSH JTIASA
Mkt cap 1.49B 618.31M
Employees 7,216 2,881
P/E ratio 3.13 4.27
Div yield 7.41% 4.41%

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2022-12-29 08:28 | Report Abuse

Kim Loong is a much better managed plantation business than TSH.

Kim Loong is a pure plantation stock, with plantations and oil palm mills. Very focused in its business. The owners have been excellent stewards of the shareholders' funds. Low key owners. Very strong balance sheet. Oil palm mills revenues are now higher than those from its plantations.

Its share price has risen more over the long-term, consistently and predictably compared with the share price of TSH. Also, its share price appreciation has beaten TSH at every period, except the recent 3 months.

Those who own plantations managed efficiently, will recognise the business of Kim Loong mirrors those of their own plantation returns.

When should you buy plantation stocks? At a time of extreme pessimism.
[This is not a recommendation. Just sharing. You are likely to lose due to volatility of share prices of stocks. However, those who own Kim Loong who are short term focus will be disappointed. Its business grows steadily and surely and slowly, by the 5th year, you can expect to see positive returns on your initial investment.]

TSH, JTiasa and FGV are all trading at PEs of 3 or 4. Are these low PEs indicating they are undervalued? Why are they so "CHEAP"? Are they truly cheap? Please study the PE fluctuations of cyclical stocks to understand more.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 08:38 | Report Abuse

This 3iii got two legs of unequal lengths

Tsh total dividends
3 sen "+ 8 sen
Is 11 sen

More than 10% dividend

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 08:41 | Report Abuse

Kmloong has too small palm oil lands compared to Tsh

Tsh Nav Rm1. 60 while kmloong only 80 plus sen

This fella does not know assets as value

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 08:46 | Report Abuse

How come 3iii no go comment in kgb (0150) got rm530 mil receivables and high debt

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-12-29 08:49 | Report Abuse

KMLOONG is more like a palm oil mills company than a plantation company.

It produce only about 28000mT FFB a month.
28000mT / 1780m market cap = 16mT/million.
Very low compare to other plantation companies.

Posted by FlyingEagle > 2022-12-29 08:49 | Report Abuse

kmloong maket cap more than TSH ?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 09:12 | Report Abuse

Yes kmloong people said

When cpo prices just ok they make more as they got two main businesses

Palm oil milling
Will do better if ffb not too high in price or else cost goes up and they will earn less from milling

Ideal price for kmloong is cpo below rm3000 a ton

Now cpo rm4000 only good for upstream planters

Kmloong has small palm oil estates in upstream

Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-12-29 09:13 |

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Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 09:14 | Report Abuse

Pure upstream like jtiasa, thplant, innoplant and hs plant will do better if cpo stays high from rm3500 to rm5000

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 09:34 | Report Abuse

Haha very interesting loh … Kim Loong borrowing is only ard RM 60 million … Cash n bank balances is More than RM 317 million ….

Callvin … is this debt free company ke ….

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 09:36 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 09:40 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 09:45 | Report Abuse

Thplant


Referred to FY21 (Q2) ended June2021 :

a) Financial assets

Trade n other receivables 39,466,000

Cash and bank balances 371,654,000


total = 411,120,000

b) Financial liabilities

Loans and borrowings 1,446,810,000

Trade and other payables 245,669,000

Lease liabilities 80,440,000

total = 1,772,919,000


a) - b ) = ( 1,361,799,000 )





—-


Referred to FY21 (Q1) ended March2021 :

a) Financial assets

Trade and other receivables 25,631,000

Cash and bank balances 87,129,000


total = 112,760,000

b) Financial liabilities

Loans and borrowings 1,153,850,000

Trade and other payables 234,529,000

Lease liabilities 79,786,000

total = 1,468,165,000


a) - b ) = ( 1,355,405,000 )

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 09:46 |

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Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-12-29 09:49 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 09:56 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 10:03 |

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Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 10:18 | Report Abuse

DY 7.48 % ( within 12 months period, slight variation may due to Price fluctuation) ..

—-

Posted by calvintaneng > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

This 3iii got two legs of unequal lengths

Tsh total dividends
3 sen "+ 8 sen
Is 11 sen

More than 10% dividend

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 10:21 |

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Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-12-29 10:59 |

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Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-12-29 11:29 | Report Abuse

Too many negative articles published by local media on palm oil future price.

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2022-12-29 13:09 | Report Abuse

How do I value TSH?

If I were to invest into TSH today, how much return can I expect yearly from TSH?
Being a value investor, I would be conservative in my assumptions.
I assume it will be able to sustain the 3 sen dividend per share. The special dividends on top of this will be bonus and cannot be predicted to recur yearly.
Also, what happened to all its retained earnings? Has each RM1/year of retained earnings translate into a RM1/year rise in its market capitalization. In TSH, this has not been the case.

Thus, my back of envelope fair value for TSH is Rm 1.00 per share.
Since as a value investor, I would like to buy with a margin of safety, should I even buy this stock, it has to be below 70 sen per share (30% MOS) or 50 sen per share (50% MOS).

Probably, will look for bargains elsewhere. TQ

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 13:39 | Report Abuse

Totally wrong assumption by dinosaur 3iii just as he failed to sell dutchlady

Since he does not know what is asset value at all as an aspect of investing

All palm oil co starts with huge capital due to land acquisition or in Tsh's case not only lands but acquisition of Cocoa processing business, Palm oil refineries, Palm oil mills, Shares of Ekowood and Forest managements of over 300,000 acres

All these require capital in the form of borrowings or by Rights issue

Tsh has not use rights to raise capital but borrowed Rm1.5 Billions

As a result its early revenues were used to pay up bank loans and secure the asset ownership

Assets are also "cash" or cash in solidification

As in the case of bplant these assets acquired at low prices will appreciate and give extra earnings to pay handsome dividends when sold

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 13:43 | Report Abuse

Tsh versus Innoplant

Tsh and Innoplant are both managed by Tsh

Difference is Tsh owns it's assets of immense value now while Inno assets are leased by Sabah Govt in exchange for dividends

Tsh has done great job by making out great dividends from Inno

As to Tsh after it's debts are fully paid up it will certainly follow Inno footsteps in paying out higher dividend

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 13:53 | Report Abuse

What is the real intrinsic value of Tsh?

The recent sale of bulugan lands have increased Tsh nav to Rm1.60

Bulugan lands made Rm465 million profit for Tsh

Tsh still got many palm oil lands

Just the 94700 acres in Kutai/Nusantara (about 3 times size of bulugan lands sold )if given same selling price will propel Nav to Rm2.50 - Rm3.00 range

Tsh real intrinsic value is above Rm2.00 just based on its asset value alone

Either 3iii is ignorant or deliberately lying

We know Klk took Ijmplant private at Rm3.10 when Ijmplant Nav was below Rm2.00

Since Tsh is identical to ijmplant it's real takeover value or intrinsic value should be no less than Rm2.00

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 14:33 | Report Abuse

How much dividend will Tsh be paying in year 2023?

for that we see Tsh paid 3 sen dividend in Feb 2022 when it's borrowings still very high about Rm1 Billions

the sale of Sabah lands(Rm249 millions) & Bulugan lands (Rm731.09 millions) bring in Rm980 million cash

and by now in principle Tsh is debt free with saving on bank interest payment about 3.6 sen

if Tsh can pay 3 sen like Feb 2022 plus the saving of bank interest of 3.6 sen as added dividend payout the dividend could easily go up to 6.6 sen

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-12-29 15:05 |

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Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2022-12-29 16:24 | Report Abuse

>>>
How much dividend will Tsh be paying in year 2023?

for that we see Tsh paid 3 sen dividend in Feb 2022 when it's borrowings still very high about Rm1 Billions

the sale of Sabah lands(Rm249 millions) & Bulugan lands (Rm731.09 millions) bring in Rm980 million cash

and by now in principle Tsh is debt free with saving on bank interest payment about 3.6 sen

if Tsh can pay 3 sen like Feb 2022 plus the saving of bank interest of 3.6 sen as added dividend payout the dividend could easily go up to 6.6 sen
>>>>


The non-operating income is non-recurring. At most, you get a one-off special dividend. I know the hero of Netx, calvintan is aware of this too.

Thus, should you get a special dividend which is non-recurring, do not use this in your calculation of your intrinsic value. The hero of Netx, calvintan knows this too.

Anyway, to make it easy to understand (for me):

1. Fair value of TSH is RM 1.00 per share.
2. For this, I hope to get a return of 3 sen per share yearly.
3. On a good year, maybe a special dividend too, but this is non-recurring.
4. But, would you buy at $1.00 per share today? Of course, not.

Buy with a margin of safety.
Buy below 70 sen or 50 sen/share.

When do you sell?
Maybe when this margin of safety is no longer enough for your comfort. Perhaps, at 90 sen per share.

Thus, TSH is not a buy for me at the moment. But I think I won't be in this stock as there are other bargains available with better reward:risk profile.

Good luck. Valuation is based on an individual's assumptions. Therefore, for each, their own valuation. My valuation maybe absolutely wrong but you will have to make up your own assessment and decision.

Posted by OnTime > 2022-12-29 16:31 | Report Abuse

good luck and good bye

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 16:42 | Report Abuse

Yes better 3iii go away

We have

THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR

BEN GRAHAM SAID BUY WITH A 30% DISCOUNT TO NTA

THE NTA OF TSH IS RM1.60

A DISCOUNT OF 30% MEANS RM1.12

ANYTHING BELOW BEN GRAHAM THINKS SAFE

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > 2022-12-29 16:46 | Report Abuse

>>>>
Posted by calvintaneng > Dec 29, 2022 4:42 PM | Report Abuse

Yes better 3iii go away

We have

THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR

BEN GRAHAM SAID BUY WITH A 30% DISCOUNT TO NTA

THE NTA OF TSH IS RM1.60

A DISCOUNT OF 30% MEANS RM1.12

ANYTHING BELOW BEN GRAHAM THINKS SAFE
>>>>


I enjoy the hero of Netx, calvintan's reasoning. By the same reasoning, Parkson should be extremely value. Look at its NTA and look at its market price. :-)

I know the hero of Netx, calvintan knows too. Use the discount to NTA if you are liquidating this company. It is better for now, to use the valuation method for an ongoing business. How much return you expect to get from this business investment on an annual basis?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 16:47 | Report Abuse

Calvin has been here for 9 years since Sept 2013

there are great stocks like Pm Corp, Super Enterprize, Weida, Tmakmur, Kulim, Kbunai, TheStore, Daiman(diamond), Kwantas and Ijmplant all good and many taken private which 3iii turns a blind eye (or he is myopic)

when only harp on Netx
Netx even better than Serba which is suspended

that tells us of the nasty spirit of a person in fault finding

As for Tsh we will hold with Chairman

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-12-29 16:49 | Report Abuse

have you gone to Kgb(0150) and study it's Rm530 mil receivables

Posted by Luen07 > 2022-12-29 16:56 | Report Abuse

Kgb(0151)