cpo shoot up $2733 already and doesn't seem to even pause... weather factor kicks in already
As for mid-cap top pick, Kenanga likes TSH due to its high FFB growth, recalling that its 9M13 FFB output is already showing 34pc growth year-on-year to 379,673mt, which is the strongest growth among its peers.
this share is cursed by its warrant current rm0.39 due Mar 14, exercise price rm2.2. way much cheaper than its share. don't expect it to break rm3.00. by march will further dilute. should escape...bo chao xi.
According to The Edge article referred to above, the core underlying pretax profits for the financial year improved by 30% from RM112.6m to RM146.4m. Similarly, q-o-q results improved by 44.6%.
The Company also said that with FFB production expected to increase significantly In 2014, "the group can expect to achieve improved profit in the coming quarters."
The confidence in the performance of the company and the outlook of the business is underpinned by an increase in its dividend by 40% from 2.5s to 3.5s.
PER based on EPS of 17.89s and a share price of RM3.00, is 16.7x.
16x is cheaper for plantation. hey hv to consider yo-yo palm international price, world crazy weather, short term call warrant. aint invest for 5 - 6 yrs. short term 1-2 yrs bo kang tao, sorry.
KUALA LUMPUR: Sabah-based TSH Resources Berhad (“TSH”) registered the highest record profit after tax (“PAT”) of RM224.6 million for the financial year ended 31 December 2013, which was 132pc higher than the core PAT of RM97 million in the previous corresponding year.
This spectacular result was achieved on the back of very strong growth in fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production in 2013 and reduction in production costs, in the face of lower crude palm oil (CPO) prices registered during the year. This record PAT was contributed by core PAT of RM139.3 million and investment disposal gain of RM85.3 million.
In line with the decrease in production costs realized by TSH through better efficiency, the gross profit margin escalated to 30.6pc in 2013 from 25.5% in the previous year. The gross profit margin improved despite a 15pc lower average CPO price of RM2,251 in this year compared to RM2,650 in 2012. The effective reduction in unit production cost has been very significant over the last one year.
“Since 2008, TSH’s FFB production has been growing on average at 34.4pc per annum. With cash from the disposal of non-core investment in Pontian United Plantation Berhad, we have a stronger platform to accelerate our new oil palm planting and acquisition of primarily greenfield plantations,” said Chairman, Datuk Kelvin Tan.
“Almost 80pc of oil palm plantation trees of TSH are now immature and young matured.These young trees will continue to fuel FFB production growth. Coupled with our on-going new planting, we believe that we can sustain a double digit growth in FFB production for the next 5-7 years. In addition, we expect our unit production cost to continuously undergo downtrend as our FFB yield increases for the next few years,” Kelvin Tan further explained.
For the 4th quarter ended 31 December 2013 (“4Q 2013”), the core PAT of TSH jumped by 53pc to RM50.0 million as compared to the core PAT in the previous quarter (“4Q 2012”) of RM32.7 million. The Core PAT is calculated after excluding non-operating items such as currency translation difference.
TSH has announced a proposed first and final single tier dividend of 3.5 sen per ordinary shares for the financial year ended 31 December 2013
Average CPO price in the 2013 results is RM2,251, as stated in the previous report. Now it is 2,763. Lowest CPO price in Jan 2014 is around 2,500. Whether it will go up or down, nobody knows; industry players seem to be optimistic. But they would, wouldn't they?
Per Hong Leong research today:
Valuation
SOP-derived TP raised by 1 sen to RM3.13 as we updated the share prices of subsidiary and associate. Downgrade from Buy to Trading BUY following the recent share price run-up.
Although our SOP-derived TP provides a total potential return of only 5.5% (including a projected DPS of 2.5 sen), we believe share price could potentially overshoot our TP in the short term, as TSH is one of the major beneficiaries from the recent CPO price run-up. Based on our sensitivity analysis, every RM100 rise from CPO price assumption will lift our FY15 earnings forecast and TP by 8.4% and 6.1% respectively.
p/s So, every RM100 increase in CPO price would lift HL's TP by 19sen (6.1% of RM3.13) but they didn't say what their CPO price assumption is..
Per Hwang research today:
TSH Resources; BUY; RM3.00 Price target: RM3.70 (Prev RM3.60); TSH:MK Record high quarter
4Q13/FY13 core net profit beat our and consensus’ estimates. Stronger earnings attributed to higher FFB production and operational efficiencies. Raised FY14-16F earnings by 5-6%. Maintain BUY with RM3.70 TP.
Actual vs. Expectations TSH Resources (TSH)’s FY13 core net profit (CNP)* of RM143m trumped consensus estimate as it came in 36% and 24% above the street’s consensus estimate of RM105m and ours at RM115m, respectively.
We may have underestimated TSH’s effort to enhance its efficiency in managing cost during the tough time of low CPO prices. Note that FY13 cost of sales actually declined 4% YoY to RM705m despite revenue growing 3% YoY to RM1.02b.
Dividends As expected, a final dividend of 3.5 sen was announced (subject to approval in the Annual General Meeting).
Key Results Highlights YoY, FY13 core net profit surged 53% to RM143m. Despite having to accept lower CPO prices of RM2251/mt (-15% YoY), TSH managed to outperform its peers with superior earnings growth as its FFB volume jumped 28% to 542,951 mt.
QoQ, 4Q13 core net profit jumped 37% to RM56m due to better CPO prices (+7% to RM2392/mt) and seasonally higher FFB volume in 4Q13 (+24% to 159,721 mt).
Outlook Management expects “improved profit in the coming quarter” and we believe FY14 will be a much better year than 2013. We reiterate our view that TSH will benefit most from higher CPO prices due to its highest FFB growth potential among all planters under our coverage. Due to its young age profile, we expect TSH to deliver FFB growth of 18% in FY14E and this is much higher than peers’ average FFB growth of 10%.
Change to Forecasts FY14E earning is increased by 2% to RM204m while FY15E earning is raised by 3% to RM214m as we assumed lower general cost.
Rating Maintain OUTPERFORM TSH is still undervalued as it is only trading at 13.2x Fwd. PE despite spectacular earnings growth potential of 43% in FY14E.
Valuation We raised our TP to RM4.10 (previously: RM3.38) after applying higher Fwd. PE of 18x (from 15x) on higher FY14E EPS of 22.7 sen (previously 22.6 sen). Our new valuation of 18x has been upgraded to +1.0SD (from +0.5SD). The premium valuation reflects its good cost management and best FFB output growth potential.
Risks to our call Lower-than-expected CPO prices and FFB growth.
i like the last part, good cost management and best FFB growth..... a lot people haliluya on palm price...wa 2700 liao...wa2750 liao...wa2880 liao. this price already taken into consideration and sentiment already tuned for this type of news. hard to further influent the price even if someone would to yell look palm price 2999 liao. however huge gain from revenue without good cost management to bring up net profit margin, stil no use.
TSH Resources FY13 earnings double to RM153.1m (Update) Updated: Tuesday February 25, 2014 MYT 3:30:03 PM
KUALA LUMPUR: Sabah-based TSH Resources Bhd's earnings jumped 98.7% to RM153.1mil in the financial year ended Dec 31, 2013 (FY13) from RM77.03mil in FY12 and proposed a dividend of 3.5 sen a share.
It said on Tuesday the profit after tax for FY13 was the highest ever at RM224.6mil, an increase of 132% higher than the core profit after tax of RM97mil a year ago.
"This spectacular result was achieved on the back of very strong growth in fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production in 2013 and reduction in production costs, in the face of lower crude palm oil (CPO) prices registered during the year.
"This record profit after tax was contributed by core profit after tax of RM139.3mil and investment disposal gain of RM85.3mil," it said. TSH said its revenue rose 3.3% to RM1.016bil from RM983.65mil.
The company said production costs were lower due to better efficiency. This saw gross profit margin rising to 30.6% in 2013 from 25.5% a year ago.
The gross profit margin improved despite a 15% lower average crude palm oil price of RM2,251 in this year compared to RM2,650 in 2012. The effective reduction in unit production cost has been very significant over the last one year.
TSH chairman Datuk Kelvin Tan said since 2008, TSH's FFB production had been growing on average at 34.4% per annum.
"With cash from the disposal of non-core investment in Pontian United Plantation Bhd, we have a stronger platform to accelerate our new oil palm planting and acquisition of primarily greenfield plantations.
"Almost 80% of oil palm plantation trees of TSH are now immature and young matured. These young trees will continue to fuel FFB production growth. Coupled with our on-going new planting, we believe that we can sustain a double digit growth in FFB production for the next five to seven years.
"In addition, we expect our unit production cost to continuously undergo downtrend as our FFB yield increases for the next few years," Tan said.
For Q4, 2013 the core profit after-tax jumped 53% to RM50mil from the core profit after-tax of RM32.7mil a year ago.
The core profit after tax was calculated after excluding non-operating items such as currency translation difference.
Its revenue rose 6% to RM278.15mil from RM216.81mil. Its earnings per share were 3.64 sen compared with 3.72 sen.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Carlsbg Move
110 posts
Posted by Carlsbg Move > 2013-11-18 16:33 | Report Abuse
and never come back