Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-07 12:19 | Report Abuse

CPO price today $2891.

http://www.palmoilhq.com

Posted by Gji Gan > 2014-03-07 13:34 | Report Abuse

Tsh cf 205 can enter?

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-07 15:07 | Report Abuse

checkout weather forecast, so far it indicate this unusually hot weather is going to last for a while...

Posted by racktorick > 2014-03-07 17:13 | Report Abuse

chipster1234 - I bought just bcos news paper recommended FGV, actually this is 1st time I bought plantation stock.

Posted by 2862862 > 2014-03-07 23:08 | Report Abuse

time to hold and keep, if CPO maintain this level. u will see the TSH at RM 4 June :)

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-08 00:01 | Report Abuse

My short term TP of $3.3-$3.4 achieved today, but I m still holding 100% for long term TP of $4, hopefully as 2862862 said by June but I m willing to wait until end of the year.

Posted by wee888 > 2014-03-08 10:21 | Report Abuse

will hit 4.00 this year

Posted by sweethut > 2014-03-08 12:15 | Report Abuse

hey guys, I am new to buying plantation stocks. Can anyone tell me what to look out for in plantation. Hope my question was not too general.

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-08 14:23 | Report Abuse

consider rolling 4qtrs eps of at least 15c, not heavy debted where interest eat into profit, have own palm oil mill. some ctrs actually go beyond planting which they also produce, market and sales of palm oil products incl biofuel, optionally best with present in Indonesia.

Posted by rookie > 2014-03-09 14:13 | Report Abuse

sweethut u just close eye and buy TSH... then hopefully u see this stock at RM4.00 by year end

Posted by rookie > 2014-03-09 14:14 | Report Abuse

racktorick... u better sell your FGV and buy TSH instead because TSH trees are much younger and hence can provide very high FFB (fruit) growth

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-10 16:34 | Report Abuse

Young trees to drive growth for TSH: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/insider-asia/278582-young-trees-to-drive-growth-for-tsh-.html

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-10 17:28 | Report Abuse

when reserves decline, highest ffb yield planter taking full advantage of the price: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/279439-palm-oil-climbs-to-18-month-high-as-malaysian-reserves-decline.html

Posted by sweethut > 2014-03-11 08:43 | Report Abuse

Thanks iafx and rookie. Your advice is well taken. Glad to learn from you guys here

Posted by Stockman > 2014-03-11 08:56 | Report Abuse

FFB(fruit) of TSH from high yield clones compare to FGV

Posted by eftee > 2014-03-11 17:22 | Report Abuse

How come price dropping while others go up

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-11 20:32 | Report Abuse

Already up from $2.7+ then rest at $3 +/-, then up again to $3.26...., need to rest a bit la ! Steady

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-12 10:19 | Report Abuse

Back to business

Posted by eftee > 2014-03-12 10:38 | Report Abuse

yes finally moving. TSH has one of the best yields. Their other downstream biz not bad too.

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-14 16:06 | Report Abuse

planters with young tree (and own refinary): http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/280342-highlight-planters-with-young-palms-to-win-big.html

Posted by racktorick > 2014-03-15 03:56 | Report Abuse

bought at 2.31

Posted by Hk Wong > 2014-03-15 06:24 | Report Abuse

Better be careful

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-15 16:53 | Report Abuse

Don't worry la ! FY2013 EPS is around $0.15 (excluding the gains from asset disposal & forex losses). However the average CPO price for FY2013 is only $2251, For FY2014 the CPO price is predicted to stay around $2700.

1. The increase of CPO price for FY2014 is around $2700 and for every $100 increase of CPO price there will be a positive impart of 4-5% on net profit.

2. FY2013 there is a 28% increase of FFB production, for this coming FY2014 we conservatively assume that there will be only 23% increase of FFB production (due to hot weather).

3. There was around $61millions of unrealised forex losses for FY2013, The Rupiah is strengthen by 6-8% since Jan 2014 and Ringgit also quite stable since then.


Simple calculation.

FY 2013 EPS : $0.149
CPO price improvement : $450 (4.5 x 4.5% = 20.25%)
FFB Production increased : 23%

Estimated FY2014 EPS : $0.149 x (120%) x (123%) = $0.219

Even we use the conservative Plantation Industry PE of 15, the FV is still around $3.28, whereas if we raise the PE to 17 or 18 then the FV should be around $3.8.

Anyway just sharing my 2 cents of thought.

Posted by Jimstock > 2014-03-15 19:08 | Report Abuse

Hope your 2cts thought will translate to tens of thousand RM return for every investor here and I believe it will if we go for long term :)

Posted by bing > 2014-03-16 09:49 | Report Abuse

Up up up!!!

Posted by eftee > 2014-03-18 09:56 | Report Abuse

I agree also. Up up

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-18 17:28 | Report Abuse

ha ha ha.....after the price drop for 2 days this thread is become very quiet.

CPO price is $2773, still in line with the estimation.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-18 17:31 | Report Abuse

The Boss top up again.....good sign

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1568745

Posted by johnny cash > 2014-03-19 07:21 | Report Abuse

TSH Resources (TSH MK) --------------------7//03//14
Technical BUY with +17.5% potential return
Last price : RM3.26 (RM3.04 ~ RM3.26)
Target Price : RM3.48, RM3.70
Support : RM2.98
Stop-loss: RM2.95
BUY with a target price of RM3.70 with a stop
loss placed below RM2.95. TSH breached the
“cloud” on 19 Feb 14 as the share price
continued to consolidate within a tight range.
However, yesterday’s breakout on the back of
a higher trading volume of 4.2m shares (vs 20-
day average of 1.1m) indicates a continuation
of the previous uptrend. Multiple bullish signals
were seen in the form of a bullish crossover in
22-day and 60-day SMAs as well as in
Stochastic, while MACD continued to indicate
a bullish development. A breakout above the
previous high of RM3.13 should, in our view,
catapult the share price higher, thus we peg
our upside target at RM3.70 which is based on
the 1.61x Fibonacci retracement level.
Conservative traders may accumulate within
the RM3.04-3.26 region over the pullback amid
profit taking expectations.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-19 12:34 | Report Abuse

CPO price should be quite stable for 2014.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/valueinvestorresearchklse/48554.jsp

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-19 12:37 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/valueinvestorresearchklse/48549.jsp

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-19 13:23 | Report Abuse

Good article for plantation counter.

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/48513.jsp

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-19 15:34 | Report Abuse

cpo up: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/281059-veg-oils-palm-snaps-six-session-losing-streak-on-technical-bounce.html

Posted by weng77 > 2014-03-19 16:47 | Report Abuse

Biosiesel B5 use 5% of Palm oil start in July 2014 at Malaysia....http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/280963-palm-oil-firms-will-benefit-when-mandatory-use-of-b5-biodiesel-starts.html

Posted by bing > 2014-03-19 17:22 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow strike 3.30

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-19 18:31 | Report Abuse

The Boss, bought from open market again.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1570369

Posted by bing > 2014-03-20 08:57 | Report Abuse

TSH come on!!!

Posted by Jimstock > 2014-03-20 11:44 | Report Abuse

I think this stock will go for long term, daily is going to be boring. I just have to see this stock price once a year will do and expecting 30% return.

Posted by bing > 2014-03-20 17:22 | Report Abuse

Got road block at 3.20 every×999 day.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-20 17:53 | Report Abuse

Director bought more from open market.

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1571297

Feb CPO production, drop 4%+

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1571297

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-21 11:32 | Report Abuse

report from site visit: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/281445-tsh-driven-by-young-trees-in-its-oil-palm-plantations.html

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-21 11:45 | Report Abuse

note wilmar is one the 2 winners of indon petanimia biodiesel, tsh selling most of it cpo to wilmar in indon, also tsh has jv operation with wilmar. strong biz fundamental here. yr $ yr choice!

Posted by MrGala > 2014-03-21 13:00 | Report Abuse

I have been trying to look for figures regarding to their young palm oil tree land area and age, any idea where i can find these info? Thx!

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-21 16:05 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/281537-mistry-palm-prices-to-rise-faster-hit-3000-rgt-in-april-if-el-nino-returns.html

probability 75%: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/281350-el-nino-probable-by-july-for-mda-as-temperatures-warm-in-pacific.html

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-21 16:24 | Report Abuse

SUPPLY RUNNING LOW: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/281563-sources-malaysian-palm-oil-refiners-cut-output-on-tight-feedstock-supply.html

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-21 17:36 | Report Abuse

Just because of the call warrant going to expire soon, this CIMB pushing the price down kuat kuat just before closing.....KNN !

Posted by weng77 > 2014-03-24 18:12 | Report Abuse

So not so good news about the Palm oil future... June 2014 future drop below RM 2700...Weak china data could be the reason for this drop..

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-03-24 18:27 | Report Abuse

As long as the CPO price can stay around $2600, I m happy.

Posted by eftee > 2014-03-26 11:25 | Report Abuse

CPO today 2722 so you shud be happy. Im happy also

Posted by weng77 > 2014-03-26 11:29 | Report Abuse

My best guess... this share could retrace back to 3.00 in short term due to weak sentiment of soy oil and palm oil future market price and weak palm oil export to china and India..IMO.