Well done Palm oil future today.. May'14 contract up 69 point (2.5%) and RM Strengthen against USD to 3.27 (Good for TSH US debt)... Double good news for this plantation stock ...Let see how the share will perform tomorrow...
Suspect CIMB is the one who control the price to stay at $3 cause there a warrant going to be expired at 14/3/2014 (Issued by CIMB, ratio 2 :1 with exercise price $2.2). So don't expect too much price movement before the warrant expire date.
I just checked future price future palm oil price on 10 feb..the future price break 2600..on the following day...11 feb this share started to move from 2.80..toward rm. 3. today future price break rm 2800 (200 point from 10 feb)...not sure it will drive the stock price tomorrow... Let see...
there is another call due Jan 2015. share future price fixed. the one ask you buy entered while rm2. lesson, watch out to those few names that loud the most.
Call warrant based on 5 days average price before expire to determine the exercise price...Therefore IMO, the price at RM 3 is not due to call warrant..
Although there is selling pressure at RM 3.0 but it is well supported...Today TSH perform lag behind other palm oil stock...IOI up RM0.14.. KLK up RM 0.26.. PBB up RM 0.1 and genting plantation up RM 0.16 (as per 3:20 pm)..TSH no change at Hovering at RM2.99 and RM 3.00.
The Boss just bought 300,000 from the open market at the price around $3, so it must be undervalue now or the boss see the potential good earning in the near future.
What about other? Those are upstream player ? Why ? Is it everyone only focus on small cap stock ? No one look for value Stock ? CPO have to up to RM 3000 only put in FOCUS ?
2862862, share market nothing is impossible but personally I don't think there will such a big price movement like MKH. My short/mid term TP is $3.3-$3.4, and long term TP of $4, provide CPO can sustain at the region of $2700-$2900. TSH market cap is quite big so no so easy to have such a big price movement unless there are some surprise good news. Anyway I expect the price will stay around $3 until the warrant (TSH-CE) is expired (31/3/2014). Anyway above just my personal opinion, I might be wrong.
tsh has the best ffb yield follow by ioicorp, cpo contract up to june all stand above $2800, it's gonna boost core earnings significantly as latest q result all calculated using price $2300~$2500.
for tsh looks like the $3 barrier is decisively broken today?
actually, cpo only needs to hold above $2650, doesn't need more, v can already see significant impact to the core earnings (the fact that last q result all co. traded only in $2300~2400 range). today v r seeing up to July already above $2800... that's a lot!
Every $100 increase for CPO there will be roughly 6% increase in profit margin, of course due to the hot weather there will be compromise by lower production. Conservative estimate, since last december the price of CPO already increase by $200-$300, hence the profit margin for this Qtr already increase by 12-18%, after minus the drop of production (let say 5-8%) the estimate net increase of profit margin still will be 7-10% !
tsh & ioi have the best ffb yield increment by record, this should balance off slower production due to bad weather. btw, tsh enjoyed forex gain over it's wooden business to western market. this is different from mkh which suffer great forex lost.
Due to the Indonesia Biodiesel policy implementation, as much as 3.4 millions tons of palm will be used biodiesel purposes each year. Malaysia only produce around 19.5 millions tons and Indonesia 21+ millions tons each year. Price for CPO will be strong.
meloas: tsh has mostly young plants in their plantations. just like jtiasa. however jtiasa's are maturing now. tsh even though their palms are maturing bit by bit they have loads more which are near fruition. coming from an R&D sector, tsh does have a really nice R&D facility for product development too. I can only see positives for this counter
racktorick: may I know why you are investing in FGV? in my really humble opinion, FGV is truly a very unstable political counter. huge mess in there since dr.M I mean my question is, what were the key reasons as to why you purchased it?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
iafx
4,632 posts
Posted by iafx > 2014-02-26 17:04 | Report Abuse
becareful, someone keep heavily disposing at $3, bad sign.