Posted by Stockman > 2014-05-11 17:37 | Report Abuse

With El Nino dry spell coming, FFB production lower & price up

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-12 11:56 | Report Abuse

FY2013 FFB yoy production growth is 28% and the average price of CPO price for FY2013 is $2251. Every $100 increased in CPO price there will be 4-5% increase in net profit margin. I m quite positive that TSH will produce an encourage results for FY2014. Besides the MYR rate against INR & USD is rather stable for the last few months. Keep the figures cross.

Posted by L. C. Chong > 2014-05-12 16:42 | Report Abuse

TSH Analysis - http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/tshfundamental-analysis-12-may-2014/

Posted by iafx > 2014-05-14 16:01 | Report Abuse

yaaahooo :D

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-14 16:13 | Report Abuse

Warming up for the qtr results.....ke ke ke

Posted by iafx > 2014-05-14 16:16 | Report Abuse

tsh present in indon will take full advantage of indon palm export at 4 months high begin of Ramadan: http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/289312-indonesia-palm-exports-rising-to-four-month-high-on-ramadan.html

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-05-14 16:19 | Report Abuse

Wah! Relief, after putting so much of money into it and wait for so long.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-14 16:34 | Report Abuse

bsngpg, must confident to your own stock pick mah ! Ha ha ha.... Kita yum sheng sama sama !

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-05-15 06:46 | Report Abuse

Yes, yum sheng sama sama. Yum red wine or CPO ?

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-15 08:28 | Report Abuse

Kita minum Toddy (coconut flower alcohol).... Ka ka ka

Posted by Tornado > 2014-05-15 09:32 | Report Abuse

1st n Final tier div is only 3.5 sen. Drink spritzer mineral water may be.

Posted by Tornado > 2014-05-15 09:32 | Report Abuse

Got to buy more spritzer share

Posted by Tornado > 2014-05-15 09:32 | Report Abuse

;)

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-15 10:37 | Report Abuse

Ha ha..... TSH is a growth stock not a dividend stock. So whatever the dividend declare is a bonus.

Posted by iafx > 2014-05-15 10:40 | Report Abuse

it suit the taste who see the growth of the industry and [market], rather than paper value. cheers!

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-15 10:50 | Report Abuse

iafx, let growth our $$$ through TSH ! Happy trading, cheers.

Posted by iafx > 2014-05-15 11:02 | Report Abuse

for tsh one needs to follow what's happen in indon and not only in m'sia. those who miss this point missed ioicorp also.

market is king.

Posted by ramsyll > 2014-05-16 02:05 | Report Abuse

TSH is a stock that you buy and forget about it.. that's it until it reaches RM4.00.. PBT annual 20% growth.. young trees & wakubu seeds yielding above average. Don't miss the boat here...

Posted by chenhangtee > 2014-05-16 07:51 | Report Abuse

ya.you are right. I remember Genting Plantation (previously Asiatic) was around RM1 many years back. Now it is trading above RM10.

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-16 16:18 | Report Abuse

$3.47, record high. good sign for the coming qtr report.

Posted by jimstock > 2014-05-16 16:53 | Report Abuse

Beautifully done with 5cts up and good volume.

Posted by Bs1688 > 2014-05-18 10:52 | Report Abuse

Tsh lam tiau2

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-19 09:18 | Report Abuse

$3.5 ! Good

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-22 13:04 | Report Abuse

Qtr results :

Revenue : $287 mils
PBT : $72.9 mils
PAT : $52.1 mils

EPS : 5.82 cents

Reasonably good, even taking out the forex gain of $22 mils still better than previous qtr.

Posted by rookie > 2014-05-22 14:27 | Report Abuse

Yeah, tomorrow all newspaper will report this good news... Buy and keep TSH for long term for the BIG HAUL

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/290767-tsh-1q-profit-soars-162-y-o-y-to-rm52m.html

Posted by Stockman > 2014-05-22 14:58 | Report Abuse

TP: 4.10

Posted by rookie > 2014-05-22 15:05 | Report Abuse

Stockman, where u get the target price RM4.10 ?

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-23 01:35 | Report Abuse

Correction : This qtr forex gain should be 17 mils+

Posted by myone99 > 2014-05-23 17:08 | Report Abuse

TSH Resources: Growth on track

• 1Q14 net profit of RM70m is in-line

• Earnings supported by FFB production growth, higher CPO prices and improved operational efficiencies

• FFB output grew 21% y-o-y to c.157k MT

• Maintain BUY with RM4.70 DCF-based TP



Highlights

Within expectations. Excluding net forex gain RM17.8m, TSH’s 1Q14 core net profit grew 57% y-o-y to RM34.3m. This represents 22% of our full-year estimate and it is within our expectations as Group’s 1Q profit is seasonally the lowest in the year.



Stronger output. 1Q14’s better profit is largely supported by higher FFB production which grew 21% y-o-y to 156,742 MT. This is mainly attributed to more young plantation areas coming into maturity and achieve peak yield age. Also, average CPO price strengthened by 18% y-o-y to RM2,543/MT (vs. RM2,159/MT in 1Q13). 1Q14’s EBIT margin significantly improved to 19% (from 9.2% in 1Q13), mainly supported by lower unit production cost and improved operational efficiencies.



Wood product and reforestation segment recorded slower 1Q14 revenue and EBIT of RM9.9m and RM0.5m respectively. (-24% and -29% y-o-y) due to lower export and delay in commencement of project in the domestic market.



Our View

Favourable growth on track. In spite of potential adverse weather effect this year (subject to development of El Nino later of the year), we maintain our favourable long-term outlook on TSH. This is due to its relatively large plantable landbank of about 77k ha and better FFB output growth supported by more young plantations coming into maturity age (about 1.5k-5.2k ha planted between 2009 and 2011 start to mature). We maintain our 3-year EPS CAGR of 16% (FY14-17) backed by average annual FFB output growth of 16%.



Recommendation

Maintain BUY. We maintain our BUY recommendation with RM4.70 TP based on DCF-valuation. Our FY14 y-o-y core profit growth of 20% is backed by 20% y-o-y FFB production growth and favourable CPO price forecast of RM2,790/MT.

Posted by jinv9 > 2014-05-23 20:24 | Report Abuse

myone99, what is the source of your article?

Posted by L. C. Chong > 2014-05-23 21:16 | Report Abuse

TSH analysis - http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/23/tshfundamental-analysis-23-may-2014/

Posted by jinv9 > 2014-05-26 01:15 | Report Abuse

RHB Research upgrades TSH to Buy from Neutral
Friday May 23, 2014

KUALA LUMPUR: RHB Research has upgraded TSH Resources to a Buy rating from Neutral with a raised fair value of RM3.91 from RM3.19.

In a note on Friday, the research house said TSH 1Q results were above its expectation, making up 24% of RHB’s pre-revision forecast.

“TSH has good age profile driving long-term double-digit production growth. The strong earnings delivery also means that balance sheet de-gearing will take place at a faster rate,” it said.

It noted that TSH’s 1QFY14 core earnings came in at RM35.5mil, making up 24% of our full-year forecast and 23% of consensus.

“Earnings growth was impressive at 72% on-year, driven by a 21% growth in production and an 18% rise in realised crude palm oil (CPO) price. Wood product segment maintained its breakeven position,” it said.

With the increase in production assumption, RHB FY14 earnings forecast for TSH is raised by 4% to RM153mil, while FY15 forecast is raised by 5%.

“We value the plantation business at an unchanged 16 times P/E. With a 14% upside, we upgrade TSH to a Buy,” it said.

RHB said TSH started planting the high-yielding Wakuba material in 2013 whereby 1,000 ha was planted.

These trees will hit maturity in 2H2016. The Wakuba material promises FFB yield of 35 tonnes/ha at its peak.

“We have not factored this into our forecast,” it said.

Source: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Investing/2014/05/23/RHB-Research-upgrades-TSH-to-Buy-from-Neutral/

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-26 10:42 | Report Abuse

Long term TP $4 !! Slow and steady

Posted by jimstock > 2014-05-30 13:28 | Report Abuse

Cpo drop kaw kaw my TSH strong & steady

Posted by firestar23 > 2014-05-30 16:56 | Report Abuse

CLOSE rm4 ? Wow

Posted by Josh Eng Yik Wuai > 2014-05-30 16:57 | Report Abuse

what happen to TSH???

Posted by yktay1 > 2014-05-30 16:57 | Report Abuse

Queue!

Posted by joe2014 > 2014-05-30 17:03 | Report Abuse

close 4 ....huat ah....

Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2014-05-30 17:10 | Report Abuse

suddenly shoot up...the same to yinson, pbbank, karex and many others

Posted by jimstock > 2014-05-30 17:11 | Report Abuse

Computer bug

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-30 17:44 | Report Abuse

$4 ..... Ke ke ke

Posted by jimstock > 2014-05-30 17:53 | Report Abuse

逍哥，$4 chun! But eh tahan boh? Kikiki....

Posted by racktorick > 2014-05-30 17:54 | Report Abuse

What happen ???

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-30 18:43 | Report Abuse

Cannot tahan lah ! Monday will drop back

Posted by 逍遥子 > 2014-05-30 19:26 | Report Abuse

Ha ha.... Sour grapes ?? I m holding tons of TSH ! Best it can go to $5 but have to be realistic

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-05-30 19:44 | Report Abuse

I too think it will drop back.

Posted by ramsyll > 2014-05-30 20:27 | Report Abuse

TSH price of RM4.00 is technically supported by its underlying fundamental growth in its FFB production output & yield, growth in planted area maturity, cost efficiency & anticipated price increase due to el-nino effect. With it's rather young profile plantation and it's wakubu variant seeds which produces higher yielding fruit bunches, they have been recording consistent y-o-y growth of profits of approx 20% p.a. Taking the average growth in eps of FYE 2014 & 2015, we'd likely see it's eps at approx RM0.26 and apply an industry average or TSH's historical PE range at a modest 18X, i have TSH TP @ RM4.68. Long term outlook is good...

Posted by ktrader > 2014-05-30 20:32 | Report Abuse

It will drop back for sure.....artificially inflated price due to last trading day of may....B3.60 S4.00 ....see the gap!

Posted by Stockman > 2014-05-30 20:43 | Report Abuse

If most stocks can fly like TSH it will be good for Bursa

Posted by ramsyll > 2014-05-30 20:51 | Report Abuse

Im not saying that the price will not drop... and it likely will due to window dressing probably by foreign buying. what im saying is that TSH has an intrinsic value based on its fundamental growth in production & profits, giving it a price range from RM4.00 to RM4.68.