Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-11-30 13:28 | Report Abuse

assuming zero growth in FCF, you get RM1.88 by paying 10x of its latest financial FCF

assuming zero growth in earnings, you (surprisingly) still get RM1.88 by paying 8.5x (Ben Graham formula) of its latest TTM earnings

and above are very conservative estimates

Posted by mkmk > 2018-11-30 13:43 | Report Abuse

got some ppl like haLIE trying to pull down the price of Flbhd so that his conman group will start collecting...... sorry lo... no cheap sale.... whoever sell at 1.6 also stupid when flbhd finally turn around with two quarters good profit.... exchange rate is the highest now in 2018... u wanna sell 1.60? bodoh la...

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 13:53 | Report Abuse

from GeorgeLeong:
In 2015, when logs supply is stable and USD is strong, Focus Lumber made rm31.72 million. For 2018 & 2019, with the key factors mentioned above, if Focus Lumber can make rm30 million in 2018 (Projected Q4 net profit of rm9.61 million, any figure higher than this is a Plus Bonus), based on shares outstanding of 105.50 million shares and a Price-Earnings Multiple of 10 times, Focus Lumber is valued at rm2.90 per share.

Syiok!

Posted by George Leong > 2018-11-30 14:05 | Report Abuse

Hope the above bring some light to others :)

Posted by ahbah > 2018-11-30 14:16 | Report Abuse

TP = Rm2.90 ... a very reasonable target, achievable TP.

Posted by ahbah > 2018-11-30 14:18 | Report Abuse

Based on all the above analysis, it is good to have some exposure in FL now.

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 14:28 | Report Abuse

ya.. expose to fund managers then syiok..

Posted by Jeremy_Chew > 2018-11-30 14:36 | Report Abuse

George Leong, very well written analysis.. keep up the good work!

Posted by George Leong > 2018-11-30 14:40 | Report Abuse

Thanks Jeremy

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 15:10 | Report Abuse

Now stable at 1.58-1.61.. very good price to go in..

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-11-30 15:22 | Report Abuse

take this as a pinch of salt.

PE of 10x is too easy way out

but we know at current price, FLB is undervalued with ample of margin of safety in any angle you look at it, be it at Price/FCF, PE (to reflect more accurately, look at PER ex cash to take into account its net cash position) or EV/EBIT

captainjeremysparrow from GeorgeLeong:
In 2015, when logs supply is stable and USD is strong, Focus Lumber made rm31.72 million. For 2018 & 2019, with the key factors mentioned above, if Focus Lumber can make rm30 million in 2018 (Projected Q4 net profit of rm9.61 million, any figure higher than this is a Plus Bonus), based on shares outstanding of 105.50 million shares and a Price-Earnings Multiple of 10 times, Focus Lumber is valued at rm2.90 per share.

Syiok!

Posted by Halite > 2018-11-30 15:27 | Report Abuse

tak de hal buat hal ....

is it very unlucky to share the same boat with this idiot





Posted by mkmk > Nov 30, 2018 11:03 AM | Report Abuse

haLIE, i m not spreading fear... i m telling u the risk pwi facing.... dont stupid la... ur advice to ppl keep changing... the counters u advise ppl to buy all drop like hell.... those counters all in down trend.... flb operating environment good... u tell market sentiment bad... u r spreading fear... flbhd is still strong at 1.59-1.60.... lets see which counter can survive la.... ur jaks drop like hell again today.... dont blame ppl spread fear.... blame ur own stupidity..... blame ur sifu la.... u tot ur sifu god meh.... stupid macam u lo....


Posted by mkmk > Nov 30, 2018 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

Idiot like haLIE tot he can make an impact.... he tot kyy only can make impact.... all the counters proved he is wrong....

Posted by mkmk > Nov 30, 2018 11:34 AM | Report Abuse

After small fish enjoy liao he can come in makan tulang..... kikikikiki


Posted by mkmk > Nov 30, 2018 01:43 PM | Report Abuse

got some ppl like haLIE trying to pull down the price of Flbhd so that his conman group will start collecting...... sorry lo... no cheap sale.... whoever sell at 1.6 also stupid when flbhd finally turn around with two quarters good profit.... exchange rate is the highest now in 2018... u wanna sell 1.60? bodoh la...

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 15:29 | Report Abuse

now 1.61 kena sapu dao luan.. you guys want, faster go in liao..

Posted by Halite > 2018-11-30 15:42 | Report Abuse

under such market condition , the price may already peak

Flbhd long ago already a value buy recommended by my sifu
but the price did not move much lingering around 1.4-1.6 for a long time until it caught the interest of the super investor KYY who entered with millions and pushed the price sky high. later the condition turned bad , kyy kena margin call and exited from the counter, thereafter the price fell back to 1.40 and lingering a long time around this level even reported a QR previously

the main attraction of flbhd is its dividend , now it is ex, then beware the price movement may turn into sleeping mode

Posted by Halite > 2018-11-30 15:42 | Report Abuse

this is always a slow counter without the involvement of KYY

Posted by Halite > 2018-11-30 15:43 | Report Abuse

we got to be fair with those who are new to this counter
it is not difficult to verify what I said

Posted by Halite > 2018-11-30 15:46 | Report Abuse

just looking at the trading volume after a good quarter result and high dividend
you should ask yourself , the trend is sustainable or at the current price without a strong hand to push

Posted by mkmk > 2018-11-30 15:58 | Report Abuse

KYY burnt in Flbhd right??? know y??? coz he kacau the growth of share price lo.... KYY not in it will grow steadily... u this LIAR come to con ppl for what... spreading fear for wat... Flbhd doing well, pay dividend, good outlook... u come comment that is obviously u spreading fear... tell KYY go push pwi mah idiot.... whichever counter KYY touch also get burnt now.... and u tell ppl KYY not come in it will not grow, KYY come in everybody run first lo idiot....

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 16:03 | Report Abuse

hit 4m vol liao.. very healthy volume..

Posted by mkmk > 2018-11-30 16:13 | Report Abuse

haLIE, u just not happy coz u sold Flbhd at 1.60 is it? and it is still 1.60 on ex date...... why always show ur stupidity to everyone to see??? R u going to tell me u bought back at 1.52 already???

Posted by idunwork > 2018-11-30 16:19 | Report Abuse

Aiyoo halite you are so garrulous . Are you old like kyy ?

Posted by mkmk > 2018-11-30 16:21 | Report Abuse

so old still want to fight so hard ah... this kind of attitude and personality, i pity his family...

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 17:10 | Report Abuse

close at 1.59. ok la.. still have rooms to grow...

Posted by Halite > 2018-11-30 17:17 | Report Abuse

i find a lot of funs talking here
i enjoy ding it , hope you enjoy it too


Posted by idunwork > Nov 30, 2018 04:19 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyoo halite you are so garrulous . Are you old like kyy ?

Posted by Halite > 2018-11-30 17:24 | Report Abuse

if you check the price chart for the past few years , then you will agree the price may be already peak without a strong hand like KYY pushing.

after a good QR announcement , the price today actually drop 1 sen compare with the price before ex dividend

do not mislead the newbie

Posted by Halite > 2018-11-30 17:25 | Report Abuse

the price may drop further next week
because it is always the trading pattern of flbhd after ex-dividend

Posted by Halite > 2018-11-30 17:26 | Report Abuse

if you really want to hold this counter for long term, the I advise you to enter below 1.5, it is safer.

Posted by mkmk > 2018-11-30 17:42 | Report Abuse

haLIE, look at ur recommendation in JAKS, EKOVEST and PWI obviously u r a tai ngong already la.... u tot u can spoil Flbhd with ur comment meh??? u look stupid only.... time will tell u r wrong again... like how I expose u in PWI....

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 18:18 | Report Abuse

what??? buyback lagi?

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 18:19 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5993373

Posted by George Leong > 2018-11-30 18:30 | Report Abuse

448,900 shares buyback... in total 692,800 shares from buybacks. Think they are doing this to balance its ESOS portion.

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 18:31 | Report Abuse

but 1.61 still buyback... so confident..

Posted by George Leong > 2018-11-30 18:38 | Report Abuse

In its Q2 report, it says average selling prices has decreased a little, but still much higher than 2017. Was a little worried, that Q3 result be lower than Q2, but surprise... Q3 result is better than Q2.

Posted by LINHY > 2018-11-30 18:39 | Report Abuse

加油用力丟！focus有的是現金收！

Posted by idunwork > 2018-11-30 18:44 | Report Abuse

Need to do something with the big cash pile, buy back or bonus. The veneer price is still high in rm and the demand is high. I expect this q4's gross profit margin remains good.

Posted by George Leong > 2018-11-30 18:48 | Report Abuse

idunwork: can share how u get plywood and veneer price?

Posted by Halite > 2018-11-30 18:48 | Report Abuse

that is right , focus your view on flbhd

Posted by idunwork > 2018-11-30 18:57 | Report Abuse

@George Leong. Check wood working forums in US or index mundi sites.

Posted by George Leong > 2018-11-30 19:55 | Report Abuse

@idunwork, thanks ya~

Posted by yfchong > 2018-11-30 20:11 | Report Abuse

Well done...congrats bro nic....

Posted by yfchong > 2018-11-30 20:59 | Report Abuse

Yeah the big winner is Ricky yeo.... Long wait

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 22:02 | Report Abuse

everyone is so happy with flb performance and strategy. Great job!

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-11-30 22:21 | Report Abuse

Some ppl wanna pull down the price but i think the management noticed their intention... management is good... step in to protect the interest of long term shareholders and staff.... wanna buy cheap... no door....

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-11-30 23:04 | Report Abuse

i doubt ricky yeo still holding flbhd....

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-12-01 09:54 | Report Abuse

flb sales not a worry in upcoming quarters.. US demands remain high...

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-12-01 10:11 | Report Abuse

i think think think.. really got no excuse to dispose flb shares now, unless bo lui to buy diamond for wife & need to cash out abit.

external:
- us demand remain high (you can easily see from recent news)
- usd to ringgit strong
- log export ban

internal:
- thick cash
- directors & staff exercised esos (they sure want price to chiong)
- give good dividend
- share buyback

no reason to sell la... unless price above Rm2.5...

Posted by ahbah > 2018-12-01 10:17 | Report Abuse

Also no reason not to buy now when FL is so cheap based on fundamentals.

Posted by Xiao Han > 2018-12-01 10:17 | Report Abuse

Good company sell for what LOL

Posted by captainjeremysparrow > 2018-12-01 10:23 | Report Abuse

yalo. 1.60+ so cheap.. not even hit naps..

Posted by nba_man > 2018-12-01 10:41 | Report Abuse

Better to get more before it soars high