Posted by Warriors88 > 2020-02-20 11:24 | Report Abuse

Last Updated : Feb 19, 2020 08:25 PM IST | Source: Moneycontrol.com
Crude oil futures gains 1.89% on short covering
The crude for delivery in March contracts gained Rs 65, or 1.74 to Rs 3,803 per barrel with a business volume of 14,559 lots.

Moneycontrol News
@moneycontrolcom




Crude oil futures jumped 1.89 percent to Rs 3,768 per barrel on February 19 due to short covering on the last day of February series. This was visible from the open interest and build-up of long position in March futures.


Report of OPEC+ meeting taking place as per schedule also played a part.

According to Abhishek Bansal, CMD, Abans Group of Companies, US crude oil prices are expected to remain higher this week due to a reduction in supply from Libya and OPEC's talk to deepen output cut in their upcoming meeting at Vienna on March 6th. The economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak is likely to reduce demand for energy and keep a lid on prices.

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In the futures market, crude oil touched an intraday high of Rs 3,765 and an intraday low of Rs 3,710 per barrel on MCX. For the February series, the crude touched a low of Rs 3,531 and a high of Rs 4,663.

Posted by Warriors88 > 2020-02-20 11:24 | Report Abuse

Buy!!!

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-20 11:36 | Report Abuse

So big block at 0.4, 0.405 & 0.41, how to clear???

Posted by FATA86 > 2020-02-20 11:45 | Report Abuse

IK, this big blocks are fake. Created by shorties

Posted by bullrun1985 > 2020-02-20 11:48 | Report Abuse

the big block might be created by IK. to proove his prediction is correct

Posted by wsy5023 > 2020-02-20 11:48 | Report Abuse

Warriors88

There's also another concern
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Larger-Than-Expected-Crude-Build-Threatens-This-Weeks-Oil-Rally.html

Posted by wsy5023 > 2020-02-20 11:48 | Report Abuse

@Warriors88

There's also another concern
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Larger-Than-Expected-Crude-Build-Threatens-This-Weeks-Oil-Rally.html

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-20 11:52 | Report Abuse

Q4 results two largest profit boosters:

1) Significant improvement in Kraken operating efficiency at 90+% in 4Q. (per Enquest announcement)
2) Full recognization of RM18m/quarter maintenance cost savings of Perdana sale at the end of 3Q

I would expect core net profit to be >RM90m in 4Q, at least 20% growth over 3Q.
Your money, your call.
Goodluck.

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-20 12:02 | Report Abuse

Assuming a conservative RM90m net profit per quarter = RM360m net profit annually.

Although P/E is not the best metric to value this stock due to different leverage levels for different O&G companies (EV/EBITDA and P/B would be better), for illustration's sake:

At a conservative 10x P/E, we're looking at a market cap of around RM3.6bn = 60cents TP

At a even more conservative 8x P/E, we're looking at a market cap of around RM2.9bn = 50 cents TP

Current market cap of RM2.3bn, or around 40 cents, is valuing the stock at around 6x P/E.

6x P/E for a RM2-2.5billion annual revenue company is truly dirt cheap.

I'm not really into micro prediction of whether it's going to be 0.38 or 0.39 or 0.40 or 0.41 or 0.42, these can fluctuate due to many different reasons - pump and dump, trash and cash, short selling, margin call, contra force sell, profit taking, value investing etc. It's pure gamble at these tight ranges. Get it right = pure luck. Get it wrong = bad luck. But what is clear - there are no fundamentals or skills involved in these small volatilities. It's just pure luck.

A more interesting movement over the next couple months would be 0.30, 0.40, 0.50, 0.60, 0.70 - that would be much more meaningful and reflects the true shift of market sentiment and market acceptance of Bumi Armada's change in fundamentals.

Posted by heima > 2020-02-20 12:03 | Report Abuse

very obvious is a fake sell queue. not logic at all.

Posted by armadatuah2017 > 2020-02-20 12:53 | Report Abuse

not hard to see it through. EPF will gain its substantial shareholder's position at right timing and price. still in accumulation phase.. hold it, at Q4, the price will move but will not reach the first tp of 0.60... big boss also needs more shares at current level.

Posted by winmal > 2020-02-20 13:00 | Report Abuse

don't understand why EPF still continue selling.. if anyone perceived this stock have so high TP 0.60

Posted by armadatuah2017 > 2020-02-20 13:02 | Report Abuse

dont look at the price movement every day, unless there's limit up. you have your remisier to watch out for you.

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-20 13:29 | Report Abuse

Coronavirus is starting to be contained in China.
New cases of only around 350 today, compared to around 1,700 day before.
The infection curve is starting to flatten and reach a plateau.

Recommend strong buy on the basis of:

1) Subsiding coronavirus fears
2) Rebounding oil price
3) Stronger Q4 results with net profit >RM90m
4) Price has been hammered down and still trading at a compelling discount and valuation now
5) Government is announcing a stimulus package soon to boost the economy - this would lead to hot money inflow into bursa.

But as usual, your money your call. Goodluck.

Posted by Letsfly > 2020-02-20 13:40 | Report Abuse

How would gov stimulus affect BA? It's generally for whole economy not just specific for BA no? Please enlighten

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-20 14:06 | Report Abuse

Try to think.

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-20 14:46 | Report Abuse

Wow, huge block at 0.405

Posted by FATA86 > 2020-02-20 14:58 | Report Abuse

IK, those big ques are fake.

Posted by FATA86 > 2020-02-20 15:20 | Report Abuse

Shorties non stop action

Posted by Warriors88 > 2020-02-20 15:24 | Report Abuse

Good 4th quarter report if compare with the past 4th quarter.
20/02/2020 3:21 PM

Posted by FATA86 > 2020-02-20 15:35 | Report Abuse

So far all the OnG company with good financial results share price went up

Posted by FATA86 > 2020-02-20 15:39 | Report Abuse

Shorties later have to cover 0.395 position.

Posted by Lchew > 2020-02-20 15:40 | Report Abuse

Be prepared.anytime can shoot up now

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-20 15:56 | Report Abuse

How to shoot up?

Posted by Kim0914 > 2020-02-20 15:57 | Report Abuse

hmmm....i am wondering too....haha

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-20 16:10 | Report Abuse

Armada won't shoot up unless shpok and mikekim push it up

Posted by LeslieGoh > 2020-02-20 16:21 | Report Abuse

Buy buy buy Atmada will coming and shoot up high...

Posted by Lchew > 2020-02-20 16:57 | Report Abuse

Watch out tomorrow.will touch fifty cts

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-20 17:39 | Report Abuse

Transacted at 0.395 and 0.40 today around 6.6m shares.
1 week to go to Q4.
Goodluck all.

Posted by GooShem > 2020-02-20 17:46 | Report Abuse

beware the quarter report

Posted by FATA86 > 2020-02-20 17:48 | Report Abuse

Gooshem, beware of the QR bcoz of QR is good or.bad? Haha

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-20 17:58 | Report Abuse

prev qtr rpt was not bad but price not going up, but this time hope fund will see it different way

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-20 17:58 | Report Abuse

different way in term of its cash flow and able to generate enough profit to pay back loan

Posted by GooShem > 2020-02-20 18:03 | Report Abuse

good or bad, No people know

Posted by Mabel > 2020-02-20 18:09 | Report Abuse

I'm looking forward for 4 Consecutive Profits QR..

This is really important. The Target Price will come naturally.

We need to hit 4 Consecutive Profits QR. This is the Major Milestone we have to achieve.

It will set the pace for this ship to sail for the remaining part of this year..

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-20 19:16 | Report Abuse

Kraken operating at 90+% throughout 2H2019 as announced by Enquest not yet priced in - hence the severe undervaluation now.

Recall earlier that Armada was trading at around 0.65 before the Kraken amendment agreement was announced causing it to free fall to 0.15.

Now that Kraken’s problems are solved and performing optimally even in 4Q when the weather is supposedly harshest, 2020 full year performance will definitely be better.

I think we will see a write back of Kraken in 2020. 4Q 2019 is probably still too early as the management team and auditors would want to be conservative (eg show 4-6 quarters good Kraken uptime before writing back).

In any case, the share price really shouldn’t be below 0.65 with Kraken performing optimally.

Thereafter in 2020, I think we can expect Armada’s core net profit to be stable around RM350-400m.

If anyone here has the patience to hold 3-4 years the debt will be half of where it is today, and equity value will probably be at 5-8 billion, translating to a price of around RM1-1.5.

Your money, your call. Goodluck.

Posted by itch > 2020-02-20 19:37 | Report Abuse

Not easy to hold for 3 to 4 years for rm1 and above. Too tempting to sell before it reach there.

Many of us has been here quite long. Swung from 6 figure loss to 6 figure gain. Above Rm1 many of us would be on several hundred percent gain.

I doubt you will see many us here again way before rm1...including me

But u never know, depending on its performance and the macro environment then, i may still keep some in my portfolio.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-20 19:42 | Report Abuse

Better be only FPO operators and sell OSV asset. Else, OMS has to improve.

OMS is dragging armada down.

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-20 19:47 | Report Abuse

Actually Armada earn much more than yinson & it is a company which has deeper capacity & capability mah...!!

But mkt wrongly perceived yinson more valuable loh....!!

More positive truth on armada will be revealed when armada announced coming q4 profit mah...!!

Posted by GooShem > 2020-02-20 19:51 | Report Abuse

another stupid analysis by stuckraider. how's your hengyuan? still tp 22 by cny 2021? lol

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-02-20 19:53 | Report Abuse

wow.. hengyuan tp 22?

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-02-20 19:53 | Report Abuse

r u sure?

Posted by GooShem > 2020-02-20 20:05 | Report Abuse

ask stuckraider

Posted by GooShem > 2020-02-20 20:05 | Report Abuse

btw perdana making losses. strong alerts to Armada

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-20 20:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-20 21:20 | Report Abuse

It only means Perdana last quarter got one off job with good margin.

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-20 23:15 | Report Abuse

And perdana don't have urusharta to back the price...

u see waseong, got urusharta backing...Price refuse to go down despite -30mil losses....

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-20 23:52 | Report Abuse

armada sure huat >80m profit is confirmed

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-20 23:52 | Report Abuse

Market is a scamming machine.

Wah Seong reported revenue drop from 706mil to 429mil and profit plunged further from -9.9mil to -30mil yoy losses. Not a word about the losses but focused on, apparently results beats estimates? Kenanga, MIDF, Public bank.

What exactly are analyst thinking?

Posted by stockraider > 2020-02-20 23:54 | Report Abuse

Be prepare for Armada to runup big with the coming good quarterly report mah.....!!