Posted by mf > 2020-02-22 16:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-22 20:02 | Report Abuse

Rapid rise of international cases of in South Korea, Iran and Italy is casting a lot of fear.

Possible for general stock market share price to drop over Monday - Wed prior to Q4 release on Thursday.

Chance to accumulate at 0.37 - 0.40.

But if support remains strong and price continues to climb gradually to 0.40-0.43 in anticipation of good results, it also makes sense to continue to chase.

Feel free to sell down and sit out the pre QR release market anxiety. Post Q4 if it’s a good result there’s still time to chase right after results are released - the Malaysian market is very inefficient to price in good results.

In the bigger scheme of things, 40 cents and below is truly dirt cheap. Even 50 cents is cheap.

Your money, your responsibility, your call.

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-22 20:51 | Report Abuse

True, 0.40? It's ridiculous cheap

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-22 21:15 | Report Abuse

Btw mikekim, if really up the price also doesn't mean the quarter is good

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-23 02:06 | Report Abuse

Institutional investor won't take expect, confident will in their valuation. They take what is and what is not.

When it's converted, current ratio increased to 1, 4 rolling Quarter profit, at Annualised earnings 6sen. PE 10 will be 60sen. PE12 will 72sen. Ok...u say PE not good comparison.

Then
Yinson total Asset RM9.5Bil, current liability RM1.25Bil, total liability RM5.6bil, Orderbook RM20Bil, NTA, RM1.58, Revenue RM240mil grossprofit, RM135mil(Gross Margin = 56%), PAT RM70mil. Price RM7.11 Market Cap 7.8Bil

Armada total asset RM15Bil, current liability RM3.5bil, total liability, RM11.3Bil, Orderbook RM20Bil,
NTA, RM0.59, Revenue RM520mil, grossprofit, RM198(Gross Margin = 38%), PAT 70mil.
Price RM0.40. Market Cap 2.35Bil

Orderbook: Armada(20.5+10Bil), Yinson (est RM40bil)
Price to book value : Armada (0.4/0.59 = 0.68X), Yinson (7.11/1.58=4.5X)
PE : Armada(0.4/0.06 = 6.67X), Yinson (7.11/0.2216 = 32X)
Current Ratio: Armada (2.24/3.47 = 0.65X, Yinson (2.27/1.25 = 1.86X)
Total Ratio: Armada(15.76/11.5 = 1.37X), Yinson (9.5/5.58 = 1.7X)

OMS
2017, Annual Revenue RM969mil, Annual Gross Profit RM403mil (Gross Margin 40%).
2018, Annual Revenue RM724mil, Annual Gross Profit RM197mil (Gross Margin 27%).
Q3,19, Annual Revenue RM232mil, Annual Gross Profit RM72mil (Gross Margin 31%) after selling few OSV fleet.

FPO
2017, Annual Revenue RM1.43Bil, Annual Gross Profit RM748mil (Gross Margin 52%)
2018, Annual Revenue RM1.7Bil, Annual Gross Profit RM810mil (Gross Margin 47%).
2019, Annual Revenue RM 1.33Bil, Annual Gross Profit RM758mil (Gross Margin 57%).

Gary Neal Christenson, joined 28 May 2018. with 35Mil shares.

Comparing the two, Armada has 2 numbers that looked like crap.
Gross Margin of Armada (38%) vs Yinson (56%). Further reduce the fleet of OSV and bring margin upto 40% or Urusharta go squeeze Petronas to give Armada more OMS job. Bring the Gross Margin to 45% ish. Sell OSV pare down debts will reduce operational cost and finance cost making better PBT margin. Current Ratio, Armada (0.65X) vs Yinson (1.86X). When Kraken debt converted to Long Term debt, Current Ratio will be (2.24/2 = 1.12X). If the impairment reversal happens. Say RM1Bil from Kraken.

Orderbook: Armada(20.5+10Bil), Yinson (est RM40bil)
PE : Armada(0.4/0.06 = 6.67X), Yinson (7.11/0.2216 = 32X)
Price to book value : Armada (0.4/0.59 = 0.68X), Yinson (7.11/1.58=4.5X)
Current Ratio: Armada (2.24/2 = 1.12X, Yinson (2.27/1.25 = 1.86X)
Total Ratio: Armada(17.76/11.5 = 1.56X), Yinson (9.5/5.58 = 1.7X)

This 2 company quite similar. If u don't like the debts, u discount 50% from Market Cap. Armada at least worth RM4bil at 68sen. If you don't want discount from market cap. Discount from 70% from earnings, at PE 10, is 60sen. Yinson can go buy premium. Come to Armada, discount this discount that. Really puki one.

When the outbreak happens, Armada loss by 33%. Yinson hardly lost 10%. When bad sentiments hit, u think only hit Armada is it? No. It's because yinson don't have chicken shit investor. Yinson trading at RM7 and Armada 40sen. Chicken shit like i3lurkers, spinninglotus and the naked boys dare to go there mer? Very huge difference.

What armada need to exercise is share consolidation like ICON. 5:1. Bring the price up RM2.00. Or consolidation from 10:1. at RM4. Then, u can see chicken shit go hide in reban ayam. Don't come here kacau2. If RJ87 can know what to do, these big @ss investor would have known too. The reason why it's not exercised yet leads me to believe, they purposely keep it at this price. Previous CEO and CFO impair 2.4bil and breach Sukuk covenent plunge the price from 90sen to 15sen. No way a CFO dumb enough not know about debt covenant. 2018, change both CEO and CFO, strong operating profit. Gary came in with 35mil shares. He is put there to drive the price back up creating a turnaround story. I think someone made money from the fall. The remaining question is if the fella has collected enough to close his short position and collected more to push it back up. 90sen down to 15sen made 75sen (600%). 20sen push back to 90sen. Another 70sen (450%). Sibeh SONG. Do this few round, EPF can declare 10% dividend already. =D

========================================================

mikekim I'm also expecting RM1.5bn Kraken debt to be reclassified from short term to long term.
Management has expected this to be done in Q4 2019.
Then there will be 0 liquidity risk for Bumi Armada over the next 5 years.

Posted by mf > 2020-02-23 02:55 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-23 08:40 | Report Abuse

Well say RJ

Posted by annie87 > 2020-02-23 09:32 | Report Abuse

IK, pls buy buy buy. big show coming next week

Posted by MM78 > 2020-02-23 10:56 | Report Abuse

Salutes, RJ 7 and well said . There are plenty of shorties talk 7 & 8 here to create fears. I am waiting for next Qtr results while holding tight here at average costs below current price. 60 cents Medium term TP is not far fetched. Thanks

Posted by TAK1 > 2020-02-23 12:05 | Report Abuse

Relax,keep calm have a Corona and just buy and wait.

Posted by Silent75 > 2020-02-23 14:01 | Report Abuse

Earth quake in politic... Tmr down again

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-23 14:56 | Report Abuse

Don't think will have earth quake in Malaysia polictic till November, because all already agreed that old horse to step down after apec

Posted by Silent75 > 2020-02-23 14:59 | Report Abuse

See all those big shit is having discussion now....

Posted by Silent75 > 2020-02-23 14:59 | Report Abuse

But if really down.. Might good for me to collect more..

Posted by santiraj01j > 2020-02-23 16:23 | Report Abuse

Nice..

Posted by RJ87 > 2020-02-23 19:45 | Report Abuse

When in doubt, give this a read again....

Orderbook: Armada(20.5+10Bil), Yinson (est RM40bil)
Price to book value : Armada (0.4/0.59 = 0.68X), Yinson (7.11/1.58=4.5X)
PE : Armada(0.4/0.06 = 6.67X), Yinson (7.11/0.2216 = 32X)
Current Ratio: Armada (2.24/3.47 = 0.65X, Yinson (2.27/1.25 = 1.86X)
Total Ratio: Armada(15.76/11.5 = 1.37X), Yinson (9.5/5.58 = 1.7X)

OMS
2017, Annual Revenue RM969mil, Annual Gross Profit RM403mil (Gross Margin 40%).
2018, Annual Revenue RM724mil, Annual Gross Profit RM197mil (Gross Margin 27%).
Q3,19, Annual Revenue RM232mil, Annual Gross Profit RM72mil (Gross Margin 31%) after selling few OSV fleet.

FPO
2017, Annual Revenue RM1.43Bil, Annual Gross Profit RM748mil (Gross Margin 52%)
2018, Annual Revenue RM1.7Bil, Annual Gross Profit RM810mil (Gross Margin 47%).
2019, Annual Revenue RM 1.33Bil, Annual Gross Profit RM758mil (Gross Margin 57%).

Orderbook: Armada(20.5+10Bil), Yinson (est RM40bil)
PE : Armada(0.4/0.06 = 6.67X), Yinson (7.11/0.2216 = 32X)
Price to book value : Armada (0.4/0.59 = 0.68X), Yinson (7.11/1.58=4.5X)
Current Ratio: Armada (2.24/2 = 1.12X, Yinson (2.27/1.25 = 1.86X)
Total Ratio: Armada(17.76/11.5 = 1.56X), Yinson (9.5/5.58 = 1.7X)

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-23 20:39 | Report Abuse

Nonsense, who said got change of government, old horse trying to get majority of opposition to support him to remain him as PM till next election la

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-23 20:41 | Report Abuse

If really change of government, already announced already after meeting agong

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-23 20:42 | Report Abuse

This old fox old horse really good on strengthening his power

Posted by freddiehero > 2020-02-23 20:46 | Report Abuse

wah lau... so early wan fly liao?

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-23 21:44 | Report Abuse

https://www.chinapress.com.my/?p=1917038

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-23 21:46 | Report Abuse

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2876188272473599&id=100366473389140

Posted by Mabel > 2020-02-23 22:47 | Report Abuse

...the real hardworking Malaysian irrespective of races have nothing to loose
...they will always survive
...like always !!

Meow..

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-24 00:30 | Report Abuse

Coronavirus + mahathir = crash for accumulation pre QR.

Probably gonna be shitty next few days.

Your money your call.
Goodluck all.

Posted by Mabel > 2020-02-24 00:32 | Report Abuse

Sure Mike..

Armada is currently sitting on P2 in my Armada Fleet of 13 Battleships...

Be a long distance runner, not a sprinter

Meow...

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-24 06:47 | Report Abuse

https://www.chinapress.com.my/?p=1917038

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-24 07:03 | Report Abuse

https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2222103.html

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-24 07:03 | Report Abuse

According to MIC president, there won't be any new government, but all opposition will join this government

Posted by TAK1 > 2020-02-24 07:11 | Report Abuse

Got MIC some more ah.?

Posted by TAK1 > 2020-02-24 08:12 | Report Abuse

Gotlah MIC now Tun MF want zakir naik head it now.

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-24 08:13 | Report Abuse

Anyway, Armada business operations are all overseas, if there is really any change of government, any change of government will not affect Armada operations

Posted by TAK1 > 2020-02-24 08:34 | Report Abuse

Pls remember Trump not yet see Malaysia he will be in India tdy he will see MY hope he meets Tun it would be wonderfull.

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-24 08:36 | Report Abuse

Knee jerk open at 0.39-0.395, strong buy on dips!

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-24 08:45 | Report Abuse

Knee jerk open 0.38-0.385, even stronger buy ;)

Posted by itch > 2020-02-24 08:51 | Report Abuse

Nonsense talker this i3lurker, such political uncertainties only affect Armada?

If u have other motives also use your brain la

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-24 08:54 | Report Abuse

Relax. Could possibly touch 0.375 at knee jerk open within 10 mins, that’s the time to make the kill.

Anyway, shan’t comment further on this. Gonna move very fast.

Goodluck all!!

Posted by Yu_and_Mee > 2020-02-24 08:56 | Report Abuse

panic sell

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-24 09:13 | Report Abuse

https://www.sinchew.com.my/pad/con/content_2222178.html

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-24 09:14 | Report Abuse

Breaking news, anwar meeting old horse 9.30am, if result turn positive, then today panic sellers really sohai already

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-24 09:16 | Report Abuse

Collected at a happy price.
Will continue to collect and push.
Politics has very little to do with Armada but fantastic discount right before QR! :)

Posted by wsy5023 > 2020-02-24 09:17 | Report Abuse

Anyway
I think those that hold for long term won't really affected.
If really confident, its a good opportunity to top up. Like all the other counters

Posted by FATA86 > 2020-02-24 09:17 | Report Abuse

This QR will be definitely good

Posted by mikekim > 2020-02-24 09:18 | Report Abuse

Very confident.

Buying big on panic knee jerk sell with no impact to fundamentals are the best type of bet with huge profitability.

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-24 09:23 | Report Abuse

Ya true, buy when everyone is fear

Posted by Kim0914 > 2020-02-24 09:25 | Report Abuse

hi mikekim, can disclose what price u top up at?

Posted by InvestorKING > 2020-02-24 09:29 | Report Abuse

Hopefully anwar and old horse can come into an agreement

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-24 09:35 | Report Abuse

buy .375 again

Posted by SuperPanda > 2020-02-24 09:35 | Report Abuse

further drop buy more

Posted by FATA86 > 2020-02-24 09:41 | Report Abuse

Anyone clear 0.38 here?

Posted by TAK1 > 2020-02-24 09:51 | Report Abuse

Icon also cannot drop armada MF counter ong man.