KLSE (MYR): ARMADA (5210)
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Warriors88
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Posted by Warriors88 > 2020-03-05 18:51 | Report Abuse
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on March 5, 2020.
-A+A
Oil and gas sector
Maintain overweight: The results for the fourth quarter of financial year 2019 (4QFY19) of the seven oil and gas (O&G) companies under our coverage were more volatile as only two of them — Petronas Gas Bhd and Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd — came in line with expectations compared to five for the full FY19. Three of the companies — MISC Bhd, Sapura Energy Bhd and Velesto Energy Bhd — disappointed expectations versus two outperformers — Bumi Armada Bhd and Dialog Group Bhd.
While MISC enjoyed higher tanker petroleum rates, the margin improvement failed to meet street’s more ambitious estimates. Velesto Energy, which registered a surprisingly strong 3QFY19 net profit from a rig utilisation of 92%, registered lower-than-expected 4QFY19 earnings due to two rigs undergoing zero-rated maintenance activities.
Sapura Energy continued to register losses from minimal early-cycle fabrication margins derived from the huge central processing platform jobs for Sarawak’s Pegaga and India’s KG-DWN 98/2 NELP blocks amid crude oil price declines.
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Even though Bumi Armada had to provide impairments for its legal case against Woodside Energy Julimar Pty Ltd and vessels, the group’s core earnings exceeded consensus largely from the substantively higher margin improvement from its floating production storage and offloading vessel Armada Kraken, which has achieved a satisfactory operating efficiency of over 90%.
Additionally, Dialog Group enjoyed impressive overseas job growth together with expanded plant turnaround and maintenance revenues from Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s (Petronas) five-year master service agreement.
While the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic is still uncertain at this stage, Brent crude oil price has fallen almost 10% since the beginning of the year to just above US$52 per barrel currently. This signals the potential dampening of global oil demand as US oil inventories have risen by 3% year to date to 443 million barrels.
Nevertheless, we maintain our 2020-21 crude oil forecast of US$60-65 per barrel for now with Opec and its partners looking at raising their production quota reduction of 2.1 million barrels this year, with the Joint Technical Committee of the Opec+ group recommending additional cuts of at least 600,000 barrels per day. We maintain “overweight” on the sector as order flow prospects remain bright at this stage with rising asset utilisation globally. — AmInvestment Bank, March 4