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Oil price jumps 8% on stimulus hopes, spending cuts by US producers ENERGY Wednesday, 11 Mar 20206:44 AM MYT
oil exxonmobil refinery texas
NEW YORK:Oil prices jumped over 8% on Tuesday, bouncing from the biggest rout in nearly 30 years a day earlier, as the possibility of economic stimulus encouraged buying and U.S. producers slashed spending in a move that could cut output.
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump pledged "major" steps to gird the U.S. economy against the impact of the spreading coronavirus outbreak. Japan's government said it planned to spend more than $4 billion in a second package of steps to cope with the virus.
U.S. shale producers, including Occidental Petroleum Corp , deepened spending cuts that could reduce production.
"There was almost an immediate response from U.S. producers to cut spending that will likely result in diminished U.S. oil output in the months ahead," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York, noting "The rapidity of that response helped buoy the market after Monday's collapse."
Oil plunged about 25% on Monday. It rebounded on Tuesday along with equities and other financial markets.
Benchmark Brent futures rose $2.86, or 8.3%, to settle at $37.22 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $3.23, or 10.4%, to settle at $34.36.
"The oil price went up today because it went insanely down yesterday, and some bargain hunters are driving things up," said Bjoernar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at energy consultant Rystad, noting "It will go down further with some days going up in between."
Both benchmarks plunged on Monday to their lowest since February 2016, their biggest one-day percentage declines since Jan. 17,1991, at the outset of the first Gulf War.
Trading volumes in the front-month for both contracts were well below the record highs seen on Monday, when volumes soared after Saudi Arabia, Russia and other major oil producers ended three years of cooperation to limit supply and started a price war for market share.
Saudi, the world's biggest oil exporter, escalated tensions with plans to supply 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, well above current production levels of 9.7 million bpd, according to Saudi Aramco <2222.SE> CEO Amin Nasser.
"Oil prices have managed to hold on to some gains despite Saudi Arabia's announcement to open the floodgates in April," Rystad's Tonhaugen said, noting "Saudi Arabia is not bluffing and the market will feel it next month."
With oil erasing over a third of its value this week, OPEC members were bleeding over $500 million a day in lost revenue, according to Reuters calculations.
Russian oil minister Alexander Novak said he did not rule out joint measures with OPEC to stabilize the market, adding that the next OPEC+ meeting was planned for May-June.
Saudi Arabia's energy minister, however, told Reuters he did not see a need to hold an OPEC+ meeting in May-June if there was no agreement on measures to deal with the impact of the coronavirus on oil demand and prices.
"I fail to see the wisdom for holding meetings in May-June that would only demonstrate our failure in attending to what we should have done in a crisis like this and taking the necessary measures," Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said.
"Price wars and pandemics are nothing new to the commodity markets, but both occurring simultaneously is something we have yet to witness in our careers," RBC analysts said in a note.
Sentiment was also lifted after Chinese President Xi Jinping made his first visit to Wuhan since the coronavirus outbreak forced an unprecedented lockdown of the city of 11 million people, a sign that efforts to control the virus are working.
Crude prices drew some support from this, although analysts expect global oil demand will continue to slump during the outbreak, which has spread beyond China and prompted Italy to implement a nationwide lockdown.
U.S. crude oil inventories rose 6.4 million barrels last week to 453 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. Analysts had expected a build of 2.3 million barrels. Official U.S. government data is due on Wednesday. - Reuters
Pirates of the Caribbean music really makes you imagine the life a pirate
Most US Shale Oil companies (Fossil Fuel main competitors) especially those laden with debt, are not economically viable when the price of Brent crude falls much below the $50 mark. When the price last plunged in 2014, Wall Street bailed many of them out - something it will not be likely to do this time around.
We can already there are warning signs. This oil shock will force Shale gas operator’s shutdown... no more bailout from wall street. Oil output from Shale oil expected going down with bank not willing to loan more money to them. End of Shale Gas Boom.... Bright future for Fossil Fuel Players
Armada history repeats again: Same like last year March, price back to 0.15 then gradually up to 0.20-0.21, armada operator will collect and collect all sohai shorties shares at this price range, then 2020 1st quarter report (this round might include kraken impairment write back, so it will be better than last year 1cent earning)
So Armada operator will spend this two months to collect cheap again
Oil rises for 2nd day amid hopes for output cut by US producers PUBLISHED TUE, MAR 10 202010:26 PM EDTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO Reuters KEY POINTS Brent crude futures rose $1.44, or 3.9%, to $38.66 a barrel by 0226 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.12, or 3.3%, to $35.48 a barrel, following a jump of over 8% the previous day. GP: Oil field 200227 Asia A derek pumps in an oil field in Kuwait near the Saudi Arabian border. Joe Raedle | Getty Images Oil prices climbed for a second day on Wednesday, lifted by hopes that U.S. producers will cut output, but gains were limited compared with Monday’s crash after Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered a price war.
Armada history repeats again: Same like last year March, price back to 0.15 then gradually up to 0.20, so it's same like last year, trading around 0.15 to 0.20 again, armada operator will collect and collect all sohhai shorties shares at this price range, then 2020 1st quarter report (this round might include kraken impairment write back, so it will be better than last year 1cent earning)
So Armada operator will spend this two months to collect cheap cheap again, because Armada actually worth 0.55 (NTA)
U.S. shale growth is about to decline, becoming an immediate victim of the Saudi-Russian price war.
Saudi Aramco said that it would increase oil production to 12.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April, a shocking escalation of the war for market share. That level of output is believed to be beyond what Aramco can produce on a sustainable basis. In other words, Saudi Arabia is going all-out to flood the market.
Also, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman didn’t sound interested in meeting with Russia anytime soon. “I fail to see the wisdom for holding meetings in May-June that would only demonstrate our failure in attending to what we should have done in a crisis like this and taking the necessary measures,” Prince Abdulaziz told Reuters.
According to Energy Intelligence, Saudi Arabia is conducting budgeting exercises to game out scenarios in which oil crashes to between $12 to $20 per barrel, and will even look at an extreme scenario in which oil falls below $10.
Russia says it can withstand the price war at $25 to $30 per barrel for 6 to 10 years. Neither side appears willing to budge.
“Monday will go down as one of the bleakest market days in the history of the energy sector,” Raymond James wrote in a note. “Was this capitulation day? It certainly feels like it... it is hard to imagine how much worse sentiment can get.” Related: Russia Fires Back: Could Boost Oil Production By 500,000 Bpd
As a result, the immediate victim will be U.S. shale. “[O]il should bottom out when producers begin physically shutting in wells, which is indeed what set the floor four years ago,” the investment bank added.
The reaction was swift. With share prices in freefall, the number of shale companies announcing budget cuts multiplied at the start of the week. Diamondback Energy and Parsley Energy immediately announced plans to cut spending and reduce drilling activity.
Canadian oil company Cenovus Energy slashed 2020 capex by 32 percent and its production guidance by 5 percent. Ovintiv said it would cut spending and tried to reassure skittish investors that it had enough liquidity. Marathon Oil cut spending by $500 million.
Even Chevron admitted that it might need to cut spending, just days after it unveiled lofty goals on free cash flow over the next five years. “We are reviewing alternatives to reduce capital expenditures, that are expected to lower short-term production and preserve long-term value,” Chevron said in a statement to Reuters late on Monday. Chevron was the first oil major to suggest that it might cut spending, and the oil giant said that it needs $55 per barrel in order to cover its spending and shareholder payouts.
At these prices almost no shale well drilled today can make money. Rystad Energy says just a handful of companies have breakevens lower than today’s oil price. Friezo Loughrey of data firm Oil Well Partners LLC told Bloomberg that Permian breakevens are closer to $68 per barrel if investors want an adequate return within 24 months. Today, prices are trading at half of that. Related: Saudi Arabia's Archenemy Is Taking Advantage Of The Oil War
“Many US fracking companies already had their backs to the wall before the price slump due to high debts and financing difficulties,” Commerzbank wrote in a note. “Drilling activity declined continuously until mid-January, and has since stagnated at a low level.”
The one-two combo of the coronavirus pandemic and the Saudi-Russia price war could deliver a knockout blow to U.S. shale.
But perspectives on the impact on production vary. JBC Energy said that they “prefer a more cautious call on US supply declines,” adding that it may take a few months before production begins to fall.
But others see an immediate retreat. “A decline in US shale oil production of 1-2m bl/day from current total US oil production of 13.1m bl/day is natural to expect,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said in a statement. “We now think that a last-minute deal between Russia and OPEC before the expiry of the current cuts at the end of March 2020 is very unlikely. Russia has probably firmly decided that now is the time to pull away the rug from under the feet of the shale oil producers, so now is the time for the second shale oil reset.”
Saudi and Russia will reach a win win solution on 18 march . Saudi Arabia needs oil at $80-$85 a barrel to balance budget.oil price war is not sustainable especially for Saudi .oil price will go above US$50 soon.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Warriors88
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Posted by Warriors88 > 2020-03-11 10:06 | Report Abuse
WTI Crude 35.75 +1.39 +4.05%
Brent Crude 38.90 +1.68 +4.51%