@apanama Dont worry too much about Saudi and Russia war price..all are wayang only..they can change their mind within a split second...before April 10 there might be some "news"..:) 01/04/2020 6:34 AM
Many are stucked above 0.2x and 0.3x...ok to put up a brave front... oil price will surely bounce back above USD40 in weeks or months ahead...but right now...let the dust settles first...oil could be heading lower from current levels...can buy cheaper...Panda is right.
If u guys want to look at the brent crude price. Better looked at the dated brent which is the price of the physical cargoes now (spot price). Last i check it was only $17 per barrel. Should be lower today.. the ice brent that u see in bloomberg are futures contract. Today bloomberg starts showing the futures brent for june delivery. Yesterday it was brent for may delivery. Hence why u see the sudden price increase today from $22 at yesterday closing to $25 at today opening. Oil did not go up. Just that the 2 contracts are price differently with longer tenure future having premium over shorter ones (contango market).
Most o&g project uses dated brent as reference (at least petronas does).
Oil prices could soon turn negative as the world runs out of places to store crude, analysts warn
(PUBLISHED WED, APR 1 20207:13 AM EDT)
~ The coronavirus pandemic has meant countries have effectively had to shut down, with many governments imposing draconian measures on the daily lives of billions of people.
~ It has created an unprecedented demand shock in energy markets, with storage space – both onshore and offshore – quickly running out.
~ Analysts at Goldman Sachs have warned the coronavirus shock is “extremely negative for oil prices and is sending landlocked crude prices into negative territory.”
Global oil storage could reach maximum capacity within weeks, energy analysts have told CNBC, as the coronavirus crisis dramatically reduces consumption and some of the world’s most powerful crude producers start to ramp up their output.
The coronavirus pandemic has meant countries have effectively had to shut down, with many governments imposing draconian measures on the daily lives of billions of people. It has created an unprecedented demand shock in energy markets, with storage space – both onshore and offshore – quickly running out.
At the same time, a three-year pact between OPEC and non-OPEC partners to curb oil output ended on Wednesday, paving the way for oil producers to ramp up production.
OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has pledged to hike output to a record high.
“Refineries in many places are now losing money for every barrel they process, or they have no place to store their output of oil products,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, told CNBC via email this week.
He pointed out that when refineries shut down, many oil producers have nowhere to send their crude if the refinery is also part of the logistical chain to the market.
“For land-based or land-locked oil producers, this means only one thing,” Schieldrop continued. “The local oil price or well-head price they receive very quickly goes to zero or even negative, because if they have too much oil, they must pay someone to transport it away until they have managed to shut down their production.”
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have warned the coronavirus shock is “extremely negative for oil prices and is sending landlocked crude prices into negative territory.”
The U.S. investment bank estimates that the world has around 1 billion barrels of spare storage capacity, but much of that will never be accessed “as the velocity of the current shock will breach transportations networks.”
“Indeed, given the cost of shutting down a well, a producer would be willing to pay someone to dispose of a barrel, implying negative pricing in landlocked areas,” analysts at Goldman said in a research note published Monday.
To be sure, Goldman said it expects waterborne crudes like Brent to be far more insulated from the coronavirus shock, with the international benchmark likely to stay near cash costs of $20 a barrel — albeit with temporary spikes below.
In contrast, WTI (which is landlocked and 500 miles from accessible tanker storage) is expected to be among those hardest hit, alongside WTI Midland and Western Canada Select (WCS).
Earlier this week, the price of WCS was quoted as low as $4.18 a barrel, traders told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan. That’s thought to be less than a good pint of beer in Canada.
if any of armada fpso call for shutdown, that will be the worst bad news ever to be avoided
even if drop to 0.1 high risk to collect, debt default might happen later
if someone can tell how much armada have to pay loan on monthly basis, that would help to estimate its capability to pay the loan in next 3 qtrs coming vs its cash flow
Panda Armada being 1st Fpso in Malaysia gone through many financial crisis without gov bailout. With such experience we will ride wave without a splash but wish the price is lower to make a bang.
bail out by AK, not sure if AK can do it 2nd time... demand must up soonest b4 loan default, but demand would not come if global facing lockdown for months to come
* US stocks fell sharply on Wednesday after President Donald Trump told the country to brace for a "very, very painful two weeks" amid the coronavirus pandemic. * The White House projected that the US could see 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. * The losses came on the heels of the worst-ever first quarter for the Dow Jones industrial average. * Read more on Business Insider.
US stocks fell Wednesday after President Donald Trump issued a dire new warning about pain ahead due to the coronavirus pandemic. Trump told Americans to brace for a "very, very painful two weeks" during a press briefing Tuesday evening, adding "this is going to be three weeks like we've never seen before." The White House is now projecting that the US could see between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic, peaking over the next two weeks. Right now, the US has 189,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, currently the largest outbreak in the world. As of April 1, 4,000 have died of coronavirus in the US.
Here's where major US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. ET market close on Wednesday: * S&P 500: 2,470.50, down 4.4% * Dow Jones industrial average: 20,943.51, down 4.4% (974 points) * Nasdaq composite: 7,360.58, down 4.4%
Investor sentiment is falling as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic is "maybe starting to hit home for people that had been hoping for better news," Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told Markets Insider in an interview. The losses came after the Dow Jones industrial average posted its worst-ever quarterly performance on Tuesday, slipping more than 23%. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 also posted their worst monthly returns since the depth of the financial crisis in October 2008, falling 14% and 13% in March.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
TAK1
1,458 posts
Posted by TAK1 > 2020-04-01 12:43 | Report Abuse
Yinson first casualty.
https://www.upstreamonline.com/coronavirus/aker-energy-terminates-yinsons-ghana-deal/2-1-785286