The World Bank expects oil to average $44 per barrel next year, slightly up from an expected average of $41 a barrel this year. The projected 2021 average will still be significantly lower than the 2019 average oil price level of $61 a barrel.2020年10月22日
Mickey mouse naysayers 3 stooges monkey donkey chicken out. Please do not shy away. Please come back to TDM specialist hospital for mental disorders treatment follow up
Bumi Armada - CIMB BAB makes progress with OSV disposals ■ 9M20 core net profit was in line at 75% of our/consensus full-year estimates. ■ Maintain Add but cut DCF-based TP to 43 sen (Ke: 14.5%) despite rolling forward to end-CY21F, as BAB’s cash collections are slower than expected. ■ BAB is undervalued, in our view, but lacks immediate catalysts. The key potential rerating catalyst is if it succeeds in its 2021 debt renegotiations.
Maintain BUY and MYR0.38 TP, 41% upside. 9M20 results are deemed within expectations, potentially dragged by the anticipation of seasonally weaker offshore marine services (OMS) segment in 4Q20F. 9M20 core earnings improved 37% YoY, underpinned by better FPO numbers. Bumi Armada’s risk-reward profile stays attractive, as its current 4x FY21F P/E and 0.4x FY21F P/BV (-1.5SD from its 5-year mean) reflect an elevated 2.6x net gearing, as at 3Q20
Average gross production at 37,783 Bopd in the ten months to the end of October remains ahead of the top end of guidance and has increased c.10% year on year. Production efficiency year to date remains high at 86% with the floating, production, storage and offloading vessel continuing to perform well. In September, the shutdown was successfully completed, with essential maintenance undertaken as planned.
Overall subsurface and well performance remains good and production optimisation activities continue through improved injector-producer well management. Water cut rate evolution remains stable. The Group expects Kraken production to be slightly above the 30,000 Bopd to 35,000 Bopd (gross) full year guidance range.
Niki, it's all about sentiment. Yesterday abt 1000 counters were down. The -ve sentiment will continue today n Tomoro. If budget is not approved, new PM will be appointed. Market doesn't like uncertainty. All external factors r wonderful, Dow was 30k for the first time, oil is now USD48, Dow futures up 150 points, third vaccination candidate was announced, Biden will move in to the White house without any issue anymore, yet we r still stuck in second gear mode in Bursa. All bcos of our stupid politicians in parliament.
budget is postponed to Dec lah need more time for wink wink activities
suffer is the Rakyat coz it means after wink wink conclusion is no loan moratorium. after wink wink ALL MPs change tune and say Rakyat is very rich like Mabel eat lobster got Birkin bag so no need loan moratorium
We want to hit RM0.40 by end year, then RM0.65 by early next year. Terminal TP should come to RM0.80 by end of next year.
Question is - what is catalyst?
If you look at Maybank TP of RM0.17 based on SOTP, they use net debt of RM8.3 bil as opposed to latest figure of RM7.9bil. This alone adds RM0.08/share to the value. They also knocked down Kraken NPV, while recently Bumi Armada has begun writing back Kraken's value. So the NPV there is wonky. Plus they assume ZERO extensions for all their projects. Very dumb TP by Maybank.
I think catalyst is if they announce debt restructuring by year end. Or if ONGC confirms that the 98/2 FPSO is a go. Or if they announce a significant OMS contract. Or if they sell / get a contract for Armada Claire.
All I can say is Bumi Armada is very undervalued. They are "cleaning up" (selling cold stacked OSVs slowly). Plus depreciation charges have increased this year, which means future depreciation will be lower and the Company's future profitability could be enhanced.
Price below 30 Sen is still cheap. By next week, it will not be at this price anymore. OPEC ++ is meeting on 29th n 30th with an anticipated +ve outcome which could fuel O&G fine run further
Armada has the potential to make 6 sens EPSor more in Fy 2021, so TP of 10 X EPS = 60 sens or more is not unreasonable .As long as OSV division does not need much impairment as oil price holds, the current valuations is definitely low. That is my 2 sens....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mikecyc
45,875 posts
Posted by Mikecyc > 2020-11-24 13:23 |
Post removed.Why?