@nikicheong..you didnt share your debt table and time series analysis for this quarter..that has helped alot previously to observe the debt pattern.. hope you can share for this quarter as well..Thanks!!
Oil prices may hit $110 a barrel in 2023 but Russia risk could 'turbocharge' them even higher, BofA says Brian Evans Oil tanker Suriyapong Thongsawang Brent crude could climb as high as $110 per barrel in 2023, according to Bank of America. Analysts wrote in a note on Thursday that a price cap on Russian oil remains an upside risk. The note outlines other key risks, including OPEC members like Iraq and Libya. Brent crude oil could climb as high as $110 per barrel in 2023, though there are several risks that could add more more pressure on prices, according to a note from Bank of America.
Prices for the international oil benchmark averaged around $101 per barrel this year, and BofA sees more of the same next year, predicting an average of $100 and a peak of $110 at the height of the driving season. Brent will generally be lower in the first quarter of 2023, compared to the rest of the year, analysts added.
Brent currently trades around $86 per barrel, meaning the high end of BofA's forecast represents an increase of 28%.
But BofA analysts also noted several upside risk factors for oil prices next year, namely a price cap on Russian crude.
On Friday, European Union officials agreed to set the cap at $60 per barrel. That will take effect on Monday, alongside a ban on Russian oil imports into the EU and related services for cargoes worldwide. Russia has said it won't sell oil to any price-cap participants, and analysts have estimated its oil exports could fall by up to 1 million barrels per day.
"At present, we embed Russian total oil production levels of 10 mn b/d in our assumptions for 2023 compared to the 9.59 mn b/d figure provided by the IEA. Any meaningful downward deviation from these figures could turbocharge oil prices higher," the BofA note said.
Russia presents the largest upside risk to oil prices, but there are other risks lurking as well, analysts said. In particular, further supply disruptions from OPEC producers like Libya, Nigeria, Iraq or others could "put the oil market on notice."
A shortfall of 1 million barrels a day or more could come from a number of producers, especially from OPEC, with BofA estimating that every unexpected swing in supply or demand of 1 million barrels tends to move Brent oil prices by $20-$25 per barrel.
Oil price lowest this year. Below 80 for brent and 75 for WTI. US will starts release 15 million in Dec from their strategic reserves. The plan is to refill the reserves around USD 70 price for WTI. This was the midterm reelection plan for democrats to ease the inflation. Since winning midterm, still control the senate , democrats expected worst results. Moving forward they have to ensure the reserve has to be replenish at a consistent rate in 2023. WTI should go above USD 70. Mixed reaction from oil analyst. I still think it will be bullish in 2023 once China really reopens. Expect some profit taking on BAB , short term.
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 8): Local oil and gas (O&G) players are expected to benefit from the rise in domestic capital expenditure (capex) by Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas), said analysts.
Maybank IB Research, citing a 34% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in Petronas' domestic capex, said its top picks in the sector include Yinson Holdings Bhd, Dialog Group Bhd and Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd.
"Meanwhile Bumi Armada Bhd, Velesto Energy Bhd, Wah Seong Corp Bhd and Malaysian Marine & Heavy Engineering [Holdings Bhd] are our small and mid caps 'buy'," it said.
It said Petronas is on track to meet its RM100 billion earnings target for FY2022 after the national oil company posted strong nine-month financial results with core net profit of RM72 billion, up 173% y-o-y.
“We expect oil price to remain elevated, as the winter period approaches and geopolitical risk remains high,” it said, adding that crude oil average estimate for FY2022 is unchanged, at US$100 per barrel (Brent).
“We do not rule out a higher oil price outlook in FY2023 considering the continued tightness in the global supply market, due to the prolonged structural under-investment since 2015,” it added.
Maybank also noted Petronas’ efforts in carbon emissions abatement and scaling up investment allocation on carbon neutral projects.
“With its NZCE 2050 pathway announced on Nov 1, 2022, Petronas has set a near-term target to cap operational emission to 49.5 million tonnes of CO2e by 2024 in Malaysia and achieve 25% absolute emissions reduction groupwide by 2030 (based on 2019’s baseline),” it said.
It said for this, Petronas will allocate 20% of its capex for decarbonisation projects and expansion into cleaner energy solutions over the next five years (2023 to 2026). Petronas targets 50% improvement in cashflows from operations by 2025 and 30% growth in revenue from new non-traditional business by 2030.
Be patient my friend, Oil will not stay long at this price, remember US oil reserves will buy back nearly 200 million barrels from the current strategic reserves of <400million barrel. Normal reserves is >600million. That's their plan to buy back around 70usd/barrel WTI. It has reach its bottom, bare in mind China is buying at a huge discount >60 USD/B brent and Energy is the key margin for manufacturing of goods. With cheaper energy you control the global manufacturing economics. It will not stay at this low level for long. FSPO will still be profitable for many years to come.
(Kuala Lumpur, 9th) Given that the current macroeconomic and local political situation has reached a turning point, analysts believe that investors now have more reasons to be less pessimistic, suggesting that they continue to deploy investment strategies for next year and absorb valuable small capital stocks .
RHB Research analysts pointed out that the recent local political uncertainties have settled, the inflation rate and the interest rate hike cycle may have peaked, and China's further unblocking has revived the Malaysian stock market. The FTSE KLCI has rebounded 6.7 percent from its October lows, with the FTSE MidCap 70 (FMB70) and FTSE SmallCap (FBM SCap) also recovering some losses.
So far this year, the KLCI has fallen 6.4%; the FTSE Small Cap Index has fallen 3.8%, supported by chemical, consumer and oil and gas stocks, outperforming the market. However, the FTSE 70 MidCap index fell 9.2 percent, dragged down by technology and glove stocks.
The analyst said that while the FTSE 70 MidCap and FTSE SmallCap indices are currently trading below their five-year averages at 13.5 times and 10.7 times respectively, among the stocks the bank looks at, the small and mid caps are tied with the large caps. The valuation gap narrowed to 1.2 times, showing that investors have a strong appetite for small and medium-sized stocks with unique conditions and growth.
20 legacy stocks outperformed the market In the current environment, investors generally prefer large-cap stocks. However, the performance of the 20 small-cap bead stocks researched by RHB still outperformed the market.
In May of this year, since the bank launched the "20 Small Capital Beads of 2022", although the external market is uncertain and the market is extremely volatile, the value-weighted return of the 20 small capital beads exceeds 20%. During the same period, the FTSE 70 The MidCap index fell 2.7 percent and the FTSE SmallCap index lost 5.9 percent.
Among the 20 small-cap legacy stocks, losers and winners were divided equally; the winners were oil and gas, healthcare, consumer and industrial stocks.
Analysts also pointed out that what is more interesting is that the MSCI Malaysia Small Cap Index is at the same level as the MSCI benchmark index. In Japan, Singapore and Thailand, the MSCI Small and Mid Cap Index has also seen a similar upward trend in valuation.
With that in mind, analysts say investors should continue to pick stocks for the next year on the alpha factor, a measure of investment risk, deployed based on current below-average valuations.
“We recommend an evergreen strategy, that is, building a portfolio that is strong over the long term and that returns after incorporating risk.”
Analysts believe that in the quantitative tightening cycle, although the rotation play will continue, and any excessive valuation will attract arbitrage activities, valuable stocks should take center stage.
He added that assuming that U.S. inflationary pressures ease further, allowing the Fed to ease its rate hike cycle, and China gradually unblocks, the market may be more optimistic. It is a positive factor other than local political stability and strong consumption that can support the local economy.
In addition, as the ringgit regained momentum, foreign capital flows into Malaysian stocks resumed.
Optimistic about consumer healthcare, medical logistics, oil and gas Analysts recommend that investors focus on stocks with solid cash flows and dividends, attractive valuations, and growth in the current environment. Prefer small and mid-cap stocks in consumer staples, discretionary, healthcare, logistics, and oil and gas.
The bank's top picks include Heineken Malaysia (HEIM, 3255, Main Board Consumer Products Services Group), CTOS Digital (CTOS, 5301, Main Board Technology Group) and Armada (ARMADA, 5210, Main Board Energy Group).
Investors can focus on stocks with local market-based businesses, unique businesses, catalysts, and low valuations but constant demand.
He explained that loose fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support private consumption and non-essential consumption. With capital spending and high demand for floating production storage and offloading vessels (FPSO), the upcycle in the oil and gas sector is expected to continue, which in turn translates into a positive profit cycle.
In addition, in the field of technology, selective buying of stocks that are not sensitive to demand based on valuation is expected to perform well. The logistics sector will also benefit from rising freight rates, increased third-party demand, and government tax incentives.
Putin says will cut oil production and won't sell oil to G7 countries that imposed price cap over Russia. This could easily drive the oil price to upwards...let see
Fusion Breakthrough Scientists in California have made a key breakthrough in nuclear fusion, a technology with the potential to transform the global energy landscape. Researchers at the US Department of Energy were able produce a fusion reaction that generated more energy than it consumed, according to a source there. While the results represent a breakthrough, it’s still a long way to creating a viable technology.
U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm confirmed that scientists achieved a reaction that created more energy than was used — known as a net energy gain — at the federally-funded Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.
“Last week at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, scientists at the National Ignition Facility achieved fusion ignition,” Sec. Granholm said. “It’s the first time it’s ever been done. … Simply put, this is one of the most impressive scientific feats of the 21st century.”
This year is the year of the Water-Tiger. The Tiger is the third animal in the Chinese zodiac and represents power, courage, confidence, leadership and strength. The Water Tiger year is all about forming bonds with others, taking risks, and having fun. This year, we’ll all want to meet new people and have new adventures. Because Tigers have strong wills, this means parties, excitement, and rule-breaking for people in 2022.
On the flip side, financial markets will rise and fall, with Tigers being known for their dangerous moves. Those who pay attention, however, will reap the benefits, just as the animal follows its prey. This year’s energy will be released in bursts, followed by intervals of silence. The Tiger, like any other house cat, enjoys napping, and when they awaken, the fun begins again!
Many Feng Shui expert believe Year of Water Tiger 2022 will have positive prosperity affinity to Metal, wood and water element. The Wood element exactly symbolizes growth and activities. Hence economic growth will return and the stock market will become very active. The water wood element of 2022 is expected to bring prosperity to metal industries, this is because metal conquers wood, so the wood element is a symbol of money to the metal industry.
Metal are related to Financial Services and Crude oil as black metal because it extracts from the soil like any other metal, the element is Metal. We have seen crude oil stocks has perform well in 2022.
Wood are related to Plantation and Technology, Electronics, Filming, Engineering, Distribution, Hospitals, Education, Scientific Instruments ...
Water are related to Communication, Manufacturing, Medical, Media, Advertising…
Let see whether this Water Tiger can take down the Bear...
Lets see how KLSE will do today and tomorrow . QWH on 16 dec. Expect major volume on key KLSE stocks. China reopening since last week has seen momentum in domestic travels . Expect oil demand to increase. US will buy back nearly 200 million barrels from the current strategic reserves of <400million barrel. Normal reserves is >600million. No more spare tank and is a national security risk. Feds increase 0.5 % but hint it might increase final/terminal rate beyond 4.75% in 2023 and slightly spoke US markets. With all this, OnG should be on a bullish momentum.
Supply shortages and insufficient investment in new supply will result in a bumper year for commodities in 2023, Goldman Sachs says, expecting the S&P GSCI commodity index to post a 43% return next year.
Commodities are set to be the best-performing asset class in 2023, the bank’s strategists said in a note.
“From a fundamental perspective, the setup for most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we first highlighted the super-cycle in October 2020,” Jeffrey Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, wrote, as carried by The Australian Financial Review.
The first quarter of 2023 could be more underwhelming than the rest of the year due to the expected slowdown in economies, but the low levels of investment in oil, gas, and key metals will continue to underpin what Goldman has called a new supercycle in commodities.
The drop in Brent Crude to the low $80s is likely temporary, according to the Wall Street bank, which says that oil market participants could be too pessimistic about China’s demand.
Key metals necessary for the energy transition are also set for a bull run amid expected shortages in the coming years, Goldman and industry giants say.
Earlier this month, mining and commodities giant Glencore said that a huge shortage of copper is looming while significant mine development is lagging.
According to Glencore’s estimates, under the net-zero emissions pathway of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world will be more than 50 million tons short of copper between 2022 and 2030.
Moreover, Goldman Sachs also said in early December that copper prices were set for a new record-high next year amid an “extremely” tight market. Next year, Goldman expects copper prices to top the current record-high of $10,845 per ton that it hit in March 2022. It raised its 12-month price target to $11,000 a ton from $9,000 per ton.
President Biden released SPR reserve purposely to cool down the rising oil price. Now, he planned to purchase or refilling back SPR...wondering what will happen to the oil price (supply vs demand), up or down.
In its latest monthly report, OPEC revealed it had yet again failed to produce as much oil as it agreed to produce the last time it discussed output. And it wasn’t by a few thousand barrels per day, either. The shortfall was some 1.8 million barrels daily, but more importantly, that sort of undershooting of its own target has become a regular thing for the cartel.
Meanwhile, the United States federal government needs to buy some oil for its strategic petroleum reserve after releasing close to 200 million barrels from it this year as a way of countering fuel price inflation. Yet U.S. drillers are not in a rush to boost production. On the contrary, it seems production growth has lost its place among these companies’ top priorities.
Of course, there are also the sanctions against Russia, which many expect will hurt the country’s oil production, and that may well happen, but it has not happened yet. In fact, the oil sanctions—in the form of a price cap on maritime exports and an embargo on exports to the EU—have had no effect on oil flows out of Russia. For now.
Investment banks expect higher oil prices, despite a recent slump prompted by expectations of an economic slowdown pretty much across the globe. The expectations, now beginning to seep into trader circles, too, are largely based on China’s reversal of its zero-Covid policy. But they also probably take into account the fact that oil remains an indispensable commodity. And the era of cheap oil may well be over for good.
FTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia (F4GBM) IndexFTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia (F4GBM) Index
Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria is increasingly becoming an important part of investment and risk management decision process. Launched in December 2014, the F4GBM Index is aimed to:
• Support investors in making ESG investments in Malaysian listed companies;
• Increase the profile and exposure of companies with leading ESG practices;
• Encourage best practice disclosure; and
• Support the transition to a lower carbon and more sustainable economy.
In July 2021, Bursa Malaysia and FTSE Russell launched the FTSE4Good Bursa Malaysia Shariah (F4GBMS) Index to cater to investor demand for ESG and Shariah-compliant index solutions. The F4GBMS index is designed to track constituents in the F4GBM Index that are Shariah-compliant.
China Stocks Climb on Covid Shift The Shanghai Composite rose 0.4% to around 3,078 while the Shenzhen Component gained 0.5% to 11,035 on Tuesday, rising for the second straight session after China announced that it will end quarantine requirements for inbound travelers starting on Jan. 8, sparking hopes for a faster economic recovery. Investors also digested data showing industrial profits in China fell 3.6% year-on-year in the January-November period, reflecting economic disruptions brought by Covid restrictions. Property, industrial and commodity-linked stocks led the charge, with strong gains from Gree Real Estate (2.3%), SHN Zhenye (8.6%), China State Construction (1.7%), Zhejiang Construct (4.5%) and Shandong Chiway (5.6%). Other heavyweight firms also advanced, including Sungrow Power (3.8%), Xi'an Catering (4.9%), People.cn (1.6%), Shenzhen Infinova (6.8%) and Shaanxi Jinye (9.9%).
Putin bans oil supply to countries that comply with G7..
Having promised that it would reveal its response to the recently implemented by the G7 price cap on Russian oil exports, moments ago the Kremlin did not disappoint, and as the WSJ reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin banned the supply of Russian oil and oil products to countries that impose a price cap, allowing deliveries to those nations only on the basis of a special permission from the Kremlin leader.
More shortage in oil & gas supply. This is very good news for O&G. Rigs service will be booming like hot cakes. Grab grab while still low...
Out of 7 stocks that Warren Buffet invested 2 from O&G sector (Chevron & Occidental). Meanwhile buffet is making tons of money while Bezos and Elon losing billions. Buffet is investor not inventor, so he knows all about stock market from A to Z. Buffet won't simply buy unless intrinsic and future values of particular stock is very good.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
HuatlaiOnglai
331 posts
Posted by HuatlaiOnglai > 2022-12-02 14:07 | Report Abuse
Solid fundamental with potential securing new projects. Anything higher is possible.