Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-25 14:33 | Report Abuse

Yinson. Too big to fail. One project hitcup will stretch their balance sheet. Thats why you cant give high valuation for yinson. To be fair. They run all projects concurrently not progressively.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-25 14:35 | Report Abuse

The project finance loan for Armada Kraken was fully repaid in March 2023, over three months ahead of schedule

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-25 15:38 | Report Abuse

My man Gary, been seeing him every year now

Posted by estk > 2023-05-25 15:54 | Report Abuse

Would appreciate if you guys can provide some input to the AGM today. Thanks in advance

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-25 16:06 | Report Abuse

Management sounding upbeat, CFO says Bumi Armada is "match fit" for new projects.

Posted by vespa > 2023-05-25 16:14 | Report Abuse

super news

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-05-25 16:17 | Report Abuse

Good quarter result.
FPSO business will do well in the next 3 years.
Hopefully, Armada can get at least 1 of FPSO in 2023.
I also hope Armada will perform well in 2023.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-25 16:43 | Report Abuse

"Some notification coming up next month"

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-25 16:47 | Report Abuse

Looks like they're working on multiple new projects, especially on the green energy side. The CFO was teasing a lot saying Bumi Armada is "match fit" on numerous occasions.

The ONGC FPSO is ready for first oil but the delay is from ONGC and its subsea contractors. Management in discussion on the financial penalty of the delay.

The Mumbai FSRU project is still progressing but no urgency as LNG prices have skyrocketed. Alternative designs have been shared

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-25 16:52 | Report Abuse

The RM1.5bil sukuk due in September will be refinanced when the time comes - whether in MYR or USD, to be assessed in Q1 next year

The growth plan for the future will be known throughout the rest of the year heading into 2024. CEO mentioned these projects, study, discussions and awards take a long time to materialise

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-25 17:04 | Report Abuse

Thanks Nic.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-05-25 21:44 | Report Abuse

Resolution no. 8 today was NOT widely supported. Same as last year.
50% shareholders and 32% of shares are against 'free giveaway' of bonus shares to the CEO of BAB. I am also against it. A gift of 1.5 mln every year is excessive.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-25 23:34 | Report Abuse

This will be the last time I share trend analysis on Bumi Armada's debt situation, as the company is out of the woods and no longer has any debt concerns.

Table: https://i.ibb.co/R24Ch1m/armada-23q1-debt.png

Time series: https://i.ibb.co/Csz6vBL/armada-23q1-ts.png

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-05-26 00:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-26 07:53 | Report Abuse

Please share research reports. Especially interested in reading the report from CIMB.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 08:58 | Report Abuse

Good set of 1Q23 results when excluding taxes 1Q23 core net profit of RM198m was 13% lower qoq mainly due to the absence of a tax writeback that was seen in 4Q22; without this item, 1Q23 core net profit would have declined only 5% qoq. This residual decline was caused by lower FPSO Kraken uptime vs. 4Q22, and lower variation order revenues for the FPSO Olombendo. Furthermore, BAB had completed its Caspian Sea subsea construction jobs in 4Q22. These factors were partly mitigated by higher engineering services revenues, as BAB performed more of such services for its associate company in India. Against 1Q22, 1Q23 core net profit was 9% higher yoy because of higher Kraken uptime. BAB ready to take on new contracts; an award may be near Looking forward into 2Q23F, BAB will complete the sale of the laid-up FPSO Armada Claire for US$20m, and also complete the sale of its final remaining OSV; we forecast exceptional disposal gains of c.RM50m. More importantly, BAB is looking forward to the project award by TotalEnergies of an FPSO earmarked for the development of the Cameia and Golfinho discoveries offshore Angola. According to a Mar 2023 report by industry newspaper Upstream, BAB had already reserved a slot with an offshore yard in Singapore, due to the tight availability of yard space, to prepare for the potential award of the Cameia FPSO job. BAB also confirmed at its analyst briefing this afternoon that it had tendered for various other FPSO jobs, although it is careful not to take more than two large jobs simultaneously in order to not overstretch its resources. After three years of stable operations by BAB’s Kraken and Olombendo FPSO assets, BAB has successfully degeared itself, with the 1Q23 net gearing at only 0.82x vs. 1Q20’s 2.95x. BAB believes, and we concur, that it is ready for growth, and ready for new project intake. Target price uplift from assumed EPCIC award, plus lower Ke We incorporate an 11 sen uplift to our SOP valuation by assuming that BAB will win the TotalEnergies’ FPSO Cameia EPCIC project at an assumed capex of US$1.5bn and 10% margin. As this is a purely EPCIC project, the risk of a rights issue is low, in our view. We also reduce our cost of equity assumption from 16% (using beta of 2) to 13% (using beta of 1.5), as the risks surrounding BAB are much lower than in previous years. If BAB wins this award, we expect its share price to re-rate. BAB is also bidding for more Caspian Sea subsea construction work this year. Downside risks include an unexpected and material decline in oil prices that may cause a pause in the pace of upstream FPSO capex spending by the oil majors and national oil companies, impacting BAB’s future growth potential.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 08:58 | Report Abuse

Cimb

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 09:00 | Report Abuse

I feel very comfortable with the current management.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 09:04 | Report Abuse

We raise our target price from 69 sen to 87 sen for two reasons. 1. We reduce our cost of equity assumption from 16% (using beta of 2) to 13% (using beta of 1.5), as we believe the risks surrounding BAB now are much lower than in previous years due to several years of stability in the operations of FPSO Kraken and FPSO Olombendo. 2. We also incorporate an 11 sen uplift to our SOP by assuming that BAB will win one EPCIC contract at an assumed capex of US$1.5bn FPSO project at a 10% margin. BAB has been identified by industry newspaper Upstream as the most likely candidate to win TotalEnergies’ Cameia FPSO project to develop the Cameia and Golfinho discoveries offshore Angola. As this is a purely EPCIC project, the risk of a rights issue is low, in our view. Potential re-rating catalysts include continued strong results from the FPSO segment, improving activities in the oil and gas industry as a result of high oil prices, and the improved prospects for BAB to secure longer-term and more substantial work for its two Caspian Sea pipelay vessels. Also, we expect TotalEnergies to award the commercial deal for the FPSO Cameia sometime this year. Meanwhile, BAB may be bidding for additional FPSO projects. We believe that BAB will avoid a rights issue for any future FPSO project wins, as BAB may opt for JV partnerships for new FPSO projects that may make a rights issue unnecessary or rely on upfront supplier funding that can be material. Also, BAB had said it is not interested in taking on project work for more than two large FPSOs at the same time, in order to better manage resource availability.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 09:04 | Report Abuse

2nd part of cimb report

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-26 09:08 | Report Abuse

Good report, thanks for sharing. If you have the PDF, that'd be great Gabriel.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-26 09:08 | Report Abuse

Maybank: https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/320428.pdf

Sell @ RM0.58

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 09:10 | Report Abuse

https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:49070160-7e7a-355c-be2e-7371bd1a3e59

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 09:11 | Report Abuse

Cimb and mib always lagging. They favor yinson. So...

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-05-26 09:23 | Report Abuse

Nick and Gabriel, thanks for sharing.

Just read the Maybank analyst report. Bumi Armada as a Malaysia born international company, non of her FPSO operating in Malaysia.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-26 09:23 | Report Abuse

The title for CIMB's report is "New contract wins beckon".

The difference between CIMB and Maybank's TP is purely based on the future expectations. Maybank assumes no new contract wins and no option period extensions for the FPSO charters. CIMB assumes one EPC contract win and 75% of option period extension.

And , we know from yesterday's AGM, that there is one pending announcement due in June 2023 (not related to FPSO segment). So CIMB might be right, they know Bumi Armada is due to win more than just a FPSO contract.

What I find odd is neither of these reports talk about the status of the Armada Sterling V FPSO. That project is mildly worrying as apparently every component of the 98/2 project is NOT YET READY except for the FPSO. Mind you, that is a mega development with fixed platforms etc. The FPSO is just a small part of the puzzle.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 09:35 | Report Abuse

Kakinada 98/2 •FPSO Sterling V successfully hooked up with the STP buoy mooring system since endDec 2022, and is now ready to commence commissioning upon provision of first oil by ONGC.

From analyst presentation slide

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-26 09:51 | Report Abuse

Yes Gabriel, but it's not producing oil. As the CEO mentioned during the AGM yesterday, the FPSO vessel is ready, but there are delays on the subsea contractors at the 98/2 field. These subsea contractors are hired by ONGC.

So how long is the delay going to be? The FPSO vessel was ready since January 2023...that's a lot of lost revenue/profits. Surprised no analyst pressed on this.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 09:56 | Report Abuse

ONGC will be BAB close partner going forward. Do not think they want to frustrate them. Im fine with this is as long as the issue will be resolved

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-26 10:15 | Report Abuse

Some positive updates from Vietnam:

- TGT Revised Field Development Plan (RFDP) for two new wells has been submitted to the regulator for approval. Drilling expected to commence in Q2/Q3 2024
- Application for extensions to TGT & CNV licences. Discussions ongoing between partners and PVN on licence terms and work programme commitments for the extension period

https://www.pharos.energy/investors/press-releases/2023-agm-trading-and-operations-update/

Officially the TGT FPSO contract is due to end in Dec 2024, but an extension to Dec 2026 is all but certain and a further extension to Dec 2031 is highly likely contingent on field license extension approval.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 10:33 | Report Abuse

From RHB:
BAB is in talks with the client over the potential standby rate payment. Could be link to 98/2

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-26 10:37 | Report Abuse

Target price movement summary:

Maybank: RM0.58 (unchanged)
AmInvest: RM0.86 (unchanged)
CIMB: RM0.87 (+18 sen)
RHB: RM0.80 (+10 sen)
MIDF: RM0.83 (+3 sen)

Posted by jasongks > 2023-05-26 11:02 | Report Abuse

Very strange , market is indifferent to the solid qtr achievement in spite of the solid balance sheet telling of a strong management, demonstrating good financial discipline, showing excellent debt management, ,strong order book with very likely extension options, even the general oil market condition is now favorable into 23/24. What then is the mismatch between what investor see and the results ?

Posted by jasongks > 2023-05-26 11:09 | Report Abuse

Until BA lands on a major win , investors are not convinced BA can land any major win in the horizon . This is partly compounded by the fact that BA is picking on jobs not just any job to augment shareholder value. Can this be the mismatch ?

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-26 11:15 | Report Abuse

Yes, obviously that's the mismatch. No growth = no excitement = no interest. That's where we are at, right now.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-05-26 13:49 | Report Abuse

Just accumulate when the price is on discount. We all know one day the Armada`s valuation will be at the industry standard (PE 15).

Posted by pang72 > 2023-05-26 15:08 | Report Abuse

OTB


pang72 still want to be a shameless liar, continue to tell lies after lies here.
Really shameful of you.
Please read my reply to you.
Be more gentleman, talk with facts and figures.
A shameless liar will not do well in your investment.
---------------
Posted by pang72 > 7 hours ago | Report Abuse

AYS, JAKS, HRC, msc are crashing 70%
Next is armada, coastal..... The cycle repeat n repeat..
Who is shameless liar? Otb, Zhuge_Liang, TanDavid88
Everyone know the fact.
--------------------
AYS - I made a million profit in 2021, I had explained it in I3 in 2021.
Jaks - I still make profit on this stock. I do not want to claim credit on this stock because it is not a good FA stock. Justin Tan in Jaks forum can confirm it.
Hengyuan - I made a million profit in 2017, I lost 500k in 2022. Overall I still made 500k profit. I have clarified it in I3 in 2022.
MSC - I made a small loss, nothing to shout about it.
Armada - I do not want to disclose the quantity of shares I bought at 0.40, I will be laughing all the way to the bank definitely. I will take profit if the share price drops below a certain price to protect my profit. I will let profit run now.
Coastal - I bought it around 2.00, I will take profit if the share price drops below a certain price to protect my profit.
Are you sure all these stocks lost money ?
You must be telling big lies again in this forum.
Do not twist the story to suit you.
I am always laughing all the way to the bank.
Do not simply telling lies in I3.
A liar will not do well in his investment.
Thank you.

12 minutes ago


pang72

Otb, your great lie in HRC is the fool to all i3 readers. Your 500k lose is nothing for you but i3 readers like Probability is hibernate lose till gone.. Sslee lose till writing 20 pages complaint letters...

Many more just keep quiet and cry...

3 minutes ago



pang72

You can write all your nonsense here..
I don't believe you because you really lie till I can't believe you any more

The respond from i3 readers to you are almost 100% don't believe you except TanDavid88 / Zhuge_Liang who are your ID which don't count

1 minute ago

Posted by pang72 > 2023-05-26 15:08 | Report Abuse

Read some story of lie after lie sifu before you lose another 500k in armada

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-26 15:10 | Report Abuse

Anybody have research report from UOB or Affin Hwang?

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 15:24 | Report Abuse

Incoming FPSO to drive stronger 2H23 profit ➢ Bumi Armada’s 1Q23 core net profit of RM206m (+16% yoy) in line with our and consensus expectations, accounting for 24–25% of respective forecasts ➢ The new ONGC’s Sterling V is expected to lift 2H23 profit. Caspian Sea job prospects continue to look promising for both its subsea construction vessels ➢ Reaffirm BUY with a higher DCF-based 12-month target price of RM0.85 Solid quarter BAB continued to sustain its average RM210m quarterly profit run rate without any surprise. 1Q23 core net profit grew 16% yoy to RM206m driven by stronger JV profit and higher FPSO vessel uptime, which also resulted in a 1ppt EBITDA margin improvement. All FPSOs are running close to the optimum 100% uptime, with FPSO Kraken operating at c.94% efficiency, a slight improvement from last year. Net gearing was reduced from 0.9x to 0.8x qoq in 1Q23, a demonstration of its strong cash flow generation. We expect earnings to step up in 2H23 once the new FPSO Sterling V commences its 10-year firm charter with ONGC. We gather that job prospects in the Caspian Sea remain rosy whereby both its subsea construction vessels are in the midst of tendering for work, and if materializes will further lift our existing forecasts. Further strengthening its balance sheet for new opportunities ahead Two asset disposals are expected to take place in 2Q23: the last OSV in its fleet and FPSO Claire. BAB is expected to book a US$12m gain on disposal for FPSO Claire in the upcoming quarter. The expected US$20m proceeds have been earmarked to repay debt which stands at RM5bn at end 1Q23. By reducing the current net gearing level, this will allow BAB more balance sheet flexibility to explore new growth projects. The robust FPSO market presents good opportunities to secure more FPSO projects. Elsewhere, BAB is also exploring more gas infrastructure asset opportunities and carbon capture injection and storage projects as part of its sustainability strategies. Raise TP to RM0.85; maintain BUY We roll forward our valuation and raise our DCF-based target price to RM0.85 (from RM0.80), which implies an attractive 6x forward PE. The maiden Sterling V contribution, potential new FPSO and subsea construction vessels contract wins are amongst the catalysts remaining in 2023E. Maintain BUY. Downside risks include unforeseen FPSO termination or operation disruptions.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 15:24 | Report Abuse

Affin

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 16:25 | Report Abuse

RESULTS  1Q23 core profit of RM209m is in line, at 26% of expectation. Note that our forecasts have yet to fully input the contribution from FPSO Armada Sterling V, which is on standby for first oil. On its existing projects, the FPSO income declined qoq as FPSO Kraken was undergoing various extensive remedial work on all four engines, while also improving its safety systems to meet the regulator’s standard (31 May 23 deadline).  Asset-light segment appears to be back to normalised run-rate, with 1Q23 profits of RM3m/RM1.5m respectively on the operating level and the JV project level (likely due to various modification works for Karapan Armada Sterling III). While there is no disclosure on the mix of works done for existing assets vs pre-engineering works for potential projects, we note that 1Q23 profit level is fairly consistent with 2021’s base of RM5m/RM13m on the operating and JV level respectively.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-05-26 16:26 | Report Abuse

STOCK IMPACT  1Q23 EBITDA improved 4% yoy to RM341m (flattish qoq). This contained earnings from its sole remaining and its flagship OSV, the Armada Tuah 3000 (AT300). AT300 was still generating earnings for Bumi Armada (BAB) until 2Q23, under its 10-year charter with Shell, and the contract expiry as well as the handover of the OSV to Shell was done in 2 May 23. The AT300 and the FPSO Armada Claire (disposed of in Apr 23 for US$20m) are classified under asset held for sale in 1Q23 amounting to RM88m. The FPSO Claire’s sale will see a US$12m disposal gain in BAB’s 2Q23 results. Despite lower qoq revenue, we believe BAB was able to gain cost savings as commodity prices normalised during the quarter.  Net debt/EBITDA continued to decline to 3x. Its net gearing is the lowest since 2015, after repaying US$110m of loans in 1Q23 and bringing down loan base to RM5b. BAB said it has submitted bids for projects, but made no mention on the size nor the number of projects it is pursuing. Previously, it guided that it can take on 1-2 FPSO projects on its own, and another 1-2 more projects shared with its partner SP Energy on the JV level. We believe that in line with its newly focused sustainability goals, it is likely that BAB is more focused on pursuing floating gas type of projects, vs FPSOs.  On 2 May 23, TotalEnergies announced a head of agreement for Cameia. The head of agreement was signed with its partner and the Angola regulator, Agencia Nacional de Petroleo Gas (ANPG), the party that is responsible to study and approve the field development plan for the oil project, or the final investment decision (FID). ANPG said this agreement “acts as an important milestone for the sanctioning, and allows the first production of Cameia-Golfinho fields”, located on Blocks 20 and 21 of Kwanza Basin. And, it detailed the need for an FPSO, the 7th for TotalEnergies in Angola. ANPG’s final statement is “will await the next phases for the concretisation of results”.  In our view, it is difficult to determine if this development is as good as a FID. But, it is possible that it a) signals that TotalEnergies want to keep to its original project timeline and hence is trying to hasten the process to secure FID, b) a new agreement is needed to help incorporate green capex into the oil project and the FPSO plans, or c) a simpler process towards FID before ANPG becomes busy in 2H23 working on other matters (managing new Angola onshore concessions). Having said, it is unclear if BAB remains as the preferred FPSO contractor.  JV FPSO Armada Sterling V now expected for first oil by Jun 23, by the client national oil major of India Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC). The FPSO is a 70:30 JV project of Sharpooji: BAB, under a US$2b nine-year firm charter (seven years of extension). The bond ratings agency CareEdge stated that the daily bareboat charter rate is US$609,200, and capex is US$1.17b (above original US$1b estimate). The FPSO has met its latest mobilisation date of Dec 22, but is not yet known to us if the FPSO will earn some layup rate in 2Q23. Conservatively, we assume no earnings until first oil. EARNINGS REVISION/RISK  Retain earnings forecasts. We may fine-tune our JV forecasts once FPSO Armada Sterling V achieves first oil. Our 2025 yoy earnings decline conservatively assumes that we do not factor another major FPSO win, and that FPSO TGT1 and FPSO Kraken may not be renewed after their firm expiries in end-2024/2H25 respectively. VALUATION/RECOMMENDATION  Retain BUY with target price of RM0.75 (implied 5x 2023F PE), which also inputs JV FPSO DCF at RM0.07/share. BAB still remains as a discount to Yinson’s 15x PE valuation, but the target prices are consistently within 5-7x EV/EBITDA. While Yinson holds many growth projects to justify a higher 7x EV/EBITDA, BAB’s re-rating will depend on its ability to materialize future contract replenishment catalyst.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-26 17:36 | Report Abuse

Thank you good sir!

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-05-26 20:03 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-05-26 20:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Jerichomy > 2023-05-27 01:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-05-27 12:11 | Report Abuse

I read all IB notes following Q1 conference. Sadly, I believe that Maybank makes the most convincing case. The turnaround story has been pushed to us for 5 years already. BAB says right things, but they focus on selling OSV, closing side business, shrinking. No new projects secured. Investors do not want a company that is shrinking.
Also, I am disappointed that Gary Ch. gives himself share package every year. At least, they could offer rewards for deserving employees. It is not a one pony circus. Sure others have to contribute and they should be incentivized too. I see his behavour as shameless GREED.
_____________________________________________________
1Q23 results met expectations. While BArmada’s turnaround story (degearing sustainably, improving cashflows and monetizing non-core assets) continues to gain traction, these positives have been priced in, in our view.
To catalyse growth and re-rate, BArmada needs to win a BOO FPSO project, beyond EPC jobs (construction-based).

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-05-27 13:03 | Report Abuse

Robert, I agree Maybank makes the most convincing case, IF you disregard any potential growth prospects.

We know from the AGM, there will be one exciting announcement in June. The CEO mentioned it himself.

However, Maybank’s target price is also a bit b-@#$hit as they do not factor in option periods of the FPSOs. Unlike Yinson, where they factor in the full option period for producing FPSO. So my question would be why exclude that value? Why ascribe zero value to option periods, when they do it for the other comparable company?

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-05-27 13:11 | Report Abuse

Yinsons bank borrowings also treated more favorably by IB?

All Yinsons bank borrowings are non-recourse?

How about Armadas?