Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-03 19:53 | Report Abuse

So how? This armada, leave so many question mark for us to guess. At least give us a clear view what is going on.

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-03 19:59 | Report Abuse

Limit down?

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-03 21:32 | Report Abuse

Welcome limit down. 🤗

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-03 22:06 | Report Abuse

Omg, why you so steady?

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-03 22:27 | Report Abuse

Technical problem let the engineers settle it. The price will go up again after this problem settled.

Posted by winmal > 2023-06-03 22:51 | Report Abuse

likely next week many ppl are bearish...

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-04 10:51 | Report Abuse

Die lor die lor

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-05 09:43 | Report Abuse

There will be no big impact from this ESP debacle. That is my bet. I worked on a large EPC project as a vendor coordinator last year. Big hydrocarbon joint venture. I got 35 critical vendors to be on standby for the start up. 10 of them I brought in, as there were problems using their equipment. In 8 cases, or about 80%, nothing was wrong. Vendors came and just looked, pressed switches, powerd up and down, got things going. In only 2 cases they had to physically do something. Like replace an electronic board. I learnt that the fears and concerns were usually exaggerated. Sometimes just waiting a few days to 'assess' the situation resulted in solutions found through alternate ways.
Let us see tomorrow.

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2023-06-05 09:47 | Report Abuse

😝 have those who attended the AGM spooked Armada management with all kinds of technical questions and complaining about directors fee till the management now sees it fit to make preemptive announcement? Better announce and CYA regardless the problem is big or small?

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-05 10:32 | Report Abuse

So how, what should I do?

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-06-05 12:01 | Report Abuse

Robert. U see the points. Thing broken (now) and can be replaced or resolved vs previous issue did not meet the requirement due to geo issue. Low revenue or renevue lost from kraken is for sure but will recover eventually.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-05 13:16 | Report Abuse

----------------
AKPL is working with EnQuest to assess alternative technical solutions, with the aim to return to production, on a phased basis, in the coming weeks. In the meantime, key maintenance activities, originally scheduled for execution within two periods of single train operations in the third quarter of the year, are being executed during the period of shut-in. These activities are intended to negate the requirement for any further planned outages in 2023.

The current shut-in and future reduced level of production, means that BBC revenue earned by AKPL will be reduced. Given the current uncertainties, the financial impact of this incident cannot be reliably estimated at this point, but is expected to be material for Bumi Armada.
----------------

Bumi Armada earns roughly RM225m a quarter in revenue from the Kraken FPSO. Per week, this amounts to roughly RM18m.

Each passing week without production, this is what Bumi Armada stands to lose.

This is not including the cost of repairing the problem, for which I believe Bumi Armada bears the financial responsibility.

So even if production is offline for 4 weeks, we are looking at a hit of RM72m + whatever it takes to repair the FPSO, for which I'm unable to provide an educated guess.

Enquest should be making an announcement today, I'm surprised they've been quiet as this is a loss of around 20k bopd daily (~USD1.4m per day). We should know further from their announcement on the severity of this issue.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-05 13:18 | Report Abuse

Enquest AGM is today in fact, so I expect better clarity by tonight.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-05 15:30 | Report Abuse

The way problem of pump transformer is solved is as follows. Vendor is brought in and he:
1. Pressess and HOLDS 'start' button for 5 seconds
2. Upon hearing a click and 'acknowledge light' going on he depresses 'confirm' button
3. 'Operate' switch now has to be flipped to 'auto.' ESP pump is working.

After that, supervisor will laminate the instructions above and stick it on the PLC Panel. That will solve the problem as operator did not know he had to HOLD the button for a few seconds. There will be report that operating parameters were adjusted, e.g. timer set to new delay, etc., to save face for all. Cost of all with emergency service call about 5k USD.

The danger is that instead of fixing it, the management will hire engineers and support team who have NO idea about the kit. They will discuss phased solutions for a few weeks, drafting plans, mobilizing crews, getting planned activities rescheduled rather than starting up the damned pump. We will count the losses as per Nick's estimates. Gary Ch, the CEO will give himself 3 million USD instead of 1.5 mln as he got the task team going and he will be credited for getting things done.

I have seen both scenarios play out many times. Let us hope they just fix the damn pump.
PS
I made up the steps, but that is ususally how things happen and what I saw or did.

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-05 17:47 | Report Abuse

Wow, that’s great, look like not a big issue. Hope it resolve soon.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-05 20:35 | Report Abuse

CIMB cuts TP by 18 sen. Here comes the bloodbath!

https://docdro.id/oNvKcF2

Posted by Michael Kwok > 2023-06-05 20:44 | Report Abuse

Armada sell call 62-64 cents
Tp 40 cents range.
5/6/23 8.44pm

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-06-05 20:52 | Report Abuse

CIMB released report with assumption of worst senario

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-05 21:35 | Report Abuse

I read this CIMB report, and it is nonsense in my opinion. All main accidents are actually predicted and mitigation planned in advanced before even operation starts. Some real emergencies that I personally experienced to give you example:
1. Loss of containment and hydrocarbon leak that could have resulted in explosion and total destruction of FPSO ( I was onboard when it happened).
2. Crane tipping and killing people who assemble below for safety talk (I saw it happen on asset nearby).
3. Terrorist attack and killing of 27 staff by security forces while reacting to it. Mostly by shooting at camp from helicopter by the army at terrorist and hostages. I was on a different asset with same company, so know how it progressed.

Explosions, fires, ship collisions, flooding full decks of ship by cooling water, etc, that I know from Safety Cases are other emergencies.

Nowhere I saw transformer failure as a MAE (Main Accident Event). Most pumps are in sets with1 online and 1 on standby. Surely if critical, not just 2, there may be 3 to be safe side by side. So are the transformers. And you can always get a new transformer from warehouse, fly it with helicopter and have it installed by electricians that just wire it in. No need to break containment. I cannot see the big problem, unless Gary wants to buy more shares on the cheap or it is some ridiculous lack of communication and managing the information bordering in the circus.

I remember similar thing happened about 3 years ago, there was an incident on a different asset, panic resulted and shares dropped by 10 sens or so. Seeems another event shaping up here. Act as you want to protect yourself. This is just my personal opinion.

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-05 21:41 | Report Abuse

So how? 0.69 still above closing 0.635. Ok or not?

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-05 21:49 | Report Abuse

According to the Waldorf Productions CFO, the failure began on 20th May 2023. This means during the AGM, senior management was already aware of a serious issue at the Kraken field yet failed to appraise shareholders of what was happening.

That is rather dishonest and downright poor corporate governance. Insiders already knew hence the drop in the share price from on 24th May (from 67 sen to a low of 63 sen). I reckon it would've become clear by 23rd May (evening UK time) that the field would have to be shut-in after an attempt to restart the facility failed, hence the heavy selling the next day.

Posted by shocklim > 2023-06-05 22:13 | Report Abuse

If the event happened on 23 May, then it has been 2 weeks since then.
Shouldn't BAB mgt know by now roughly how long and at what cost will be the shutdown/repair.

Rather than allowing CIMB to assume 6 mth downtime and at a cost of USD50 million repair.

Come on BAB - PLS be more transparent for the sake of yr shareholders

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-05 22:19 | Report Abuse

So how?

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-05 22:21 | Report Abuse

What is action for tomorrow?

Posted by vespa > 2023-06-05 22:38 | Report Abuse

got wind of it on Advnfn site re Enquest on the 30th but thought it fake as neither Enquest nor Aramada flagged it

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-05 22:41 | Report Abuse

@shocklim

The incident happened on 20th May 2023, this much is confirmed by the CFO of Waldorf Production, which hold a 29.5% stake in the Kraken field.

I am extrapolating (based on the share movement pattern) that by the evening of the 23rd of May 2023, it had become clear that the field had to be shut-in following a failed restart procedure.

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-05 22:42 | Report Abuse

Means?

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-05 22:48 | Report Abuse

Wait and see?

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-05 23:23 | Report Abuse

So apa macam?

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-05 23:25 | Report Abuse

Short term investors - sell trmw.
Long term investors - this is once a bluemoon opportunity...Buy.

Posted by vespa > 2023-06-06 00:29 | Report Abuse

That 6 month downtime appears to have some legs as it is also on advnfn on Enquest chat or it could be a rumour doing the rounds

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-06-06 02:07 | Report Abuse

So, the Kraken will be restarted this week. Workaround in place. No change to anual production guidance for FPSO.

I have a feeling that this 'Greedy Gary' tried to create some panic selling. This guy has no decency in his money apetite while disregarding all others on the team. Even 1.5 million extra per year (resolution 8) is not enough.

Posted by RISK8888 > 2023-06-06 08:00 | Report Abuse

Why enquest did not mention any performance impact regard to kraken during last night AGM ? Kraken cover almost 40% of its annual output. If the issue really significant I’m sure they will revise their projection forecast. Why???

Posted by Albert Lee > 2023-06-06 08:33 | Report Abuse

https://www.facebook.com/groups/389267295573357/permalink/1000850574415023/?mibextid=W9rl1R

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-06 08:59 | Report Abuse

Bloodbath incoming

Posted by Nepo > 2023-06-06 08:59 | Report Abuse

let see the deep impact...cry

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-06 09:03 | Report Abuse

I've not sold, but it's a shit-show alright.

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-06 09:04 | Report Abuse

Deep impact hahaha.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-06-06 09:07 | Report Abuse

2260lots here. Damn cool

Posted by nicholas99 > 2023-06-06 09:10 | Report Abuse

armada is strong and solid counter.

Posted by jonathanlum > 2023-06-06 09:13 | Report Abuse

what happen...why drop so much?

Posted by SHOB > 2023-06-06 09:13 | Report Abuse

monitor

Posted by itch > 2023-06-06 09:15 | Report Abuse

Longer term investors...buying opportunity?

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-06-06 09:15 | Report Abuse

Can buy but not without its risks. Really depends on the severity of the Kraken issue (which for now, is rather unclear).

Posted by Bon888 > 2023-06-06 09:16 | Report Abuse

Let it flow naturally. Problem to be fixed

Posted by Nepo > 2023-06-06 09:17 | Report Abuse

Bought @ RM0.50 yummy

Posted by success2628 > 2023-06-06 09:17 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by KimSua > 2023-06-06 09:17 | Report Abuse

Can collect back at 0.40

Posted by Nepo > 2023-06-06 09:18 | Report Abuse

hurry, chance in your lifetime..

Posted by Mabel > 2023-06-06 09:21 | Report Abuse

Waiting at 49.5 and 49 sen..

Meow