My friend, you are foolish to think this forum has even an iota of impact on the market direction (except maybe in rare circumstances when market-moving insider information is shared, such as the resumption of Kraken oil production more than a week before Bumi Armada announced it).
Pessimism is as much welcomed, if not more welcomed, than optimism. Especially if it is substantiated.
Felix888 I expecting few rounds of swing before the Kraken issue settled (financial impact is visible). Now Armada management still silent on the financial impact.
Follow the waves, don't sailing unless you have insider information. 1 day ago
@Nikicheong There are many so called cleverman but not many wiseman around. Foolish or not is a matter of understanding what another person is actually saying. we'll leave it at that , as this is an investment forum not a personal debate. When you say Pessimism needs to be substantiated , that's what cock sure means in English language. Going beyond that is a waste of investor time. I for one personally value your contribution because your information and sharing adds a lot of value for many of us here making investment decision. they add value because of the research and the thought process you put in your sharing. Good job bro.
From ChatGPT: How an FPSO could contribute to carbon capture: 1. CO2 Capture: The FPSO can incorporate a CO2 capture system to separate carbon dioxide from the produced hydrocarbons, typically from the flue gas emitted during the combustion process of natural gas (gas is produced in an oil extraction process). 2. Compression: Once the CO2 is captured, it needs to be compressed for transportation and storage. The FPSO can be equipped with onboard compression facilities to increase the pressure of the captured CO2, making it suitable for transportation via pipelines or tankers. Navigator Gas LLC is a liquefied gas shipping company with a global market and the world's largest fleet of large, sophisticated gas shipping vessels.
It is imperative that FPSOs are upgraded to reduce their carbon footprint. The O&G authorities are measuring their carbon dioxide tonne per barrel of oil produced when sanctioning new fields, and thus potentially driving forward change.
This is long term but it is a plan. We cannot ignore this transition to clean energy and also this world still relies heavily on oil and gas.
Zero Flaring initiative ZF20230 commits governments and oil companies to not routinely flare gas in any new oilfield development and end existing routine flaring by 2030 at the latest. Oil companies are now requiring their FPSOs to include closed flare systems, reinjection, the ability to use the gas for power generation or similar and are also penalising their FPSO providers to high levels of flaring through charter rate reductions.
rr88 Breakout 0.485 to 0.505. Then return to retest breakout point 0.485 - success. Then next will take out 0.505 to 0.525. Then breakout 0.525 to 0.55.
That oso you dont know ka. Hai ya. 04/07/2023 3:53 PM
Max 2838 Thanks to the ChatGPT lesson on FPSO incorporating carbon capture. I'm sure BA and Navigator have done their pre viability assessment before they ink their MOU. there are some scientific inputs and meeting of brains before deciding on future cooperation. There is no doubt this is some positive way forward for BA in terms of diversification in a clean energy Bill environment. Many Cleverman thinks this is a far fetch initiative on the basis of their work experience in the rig ,so on and so forth. That's why they remain as cleverman . Wiseman will refrain from making negative comments unless you are cock sure you did a similar non-viability study or have specific facts to back it up. Then many will have no choice but to listen. other than that its nothing more than a jilted lover proving a point
The CO2 capturing system could be installed at abandoned oil platforms. Oil company could save some platform decommissioning cost and at the same time fulfill their carbon reduction requirements.
The shorties have reduced their position by 8% over the past 3 days. Possibly another 2 weeks, they're likely to run out of breath... as their material risk compliance becomes more significant....
The delay of Armada Sterling V is because well fluids are not provided to FPSO. Once the subsurface systems are finished, production can start. Crude oil is offloaded to other tankers by sea to sea offloading or via a buoy (SPM). However, gas has to be sent onshore via pipelines.
Gas is flared during commissioning so lack of CPF facility is not a show stopper. However, this cannot continue with zero flaring policies during operations.
PS CO2 venture with navigator: bluestreak - I stand by my opinion. Chat GTP description of how CO2 capture can be done is nonsense.
@Felix, in the AGM the CEO said the FPSO is ready for first oil, with the delay coming from the subsea contractors side. Quite certain there was no mention of a delay in onshore facilities.
Ahh Armada Sterling V already completed "Hook Up" since last year Dec. The subsea work still not ready? From project management perspective this is a failure.
One year cash inflow after servicing interest is RM1b. This interest will diminish over time if borrowings continue to be paid down and there will be other new income streams from new FPSOs, but this may be offset by occasional material setbacks like the current Kraken issues. Use a PE of 10, you get RM10b. Minus net debt of RM4.5b, you get RM5.5b or RM0.93 a share. Currently, market discount 49% for you.
The current NTA of Armada is 89 sens/share ; its current share price of 49 sens provides about 45 % discount. For an asset that produce so much cash flow each quarter, it is very attractive. Profit is desirable but its Net Operating Cash Flow higher than profitability is even more valuable.
Kenanga Research & Investment Bumi Armada - Kraken Back In Action
Publish date: Thu, 22 Jun 2023, 10:24 AM ARMADA revealed that FPSO Kraken had finally achieved start-up after a recent shut-in. As such, production is now currently running at circa 60% of pre-shutdown levels. We are positive on the swift, albeit only partial restoration of Kraken’s production. We believe this will largely alleviate concerns of a major financial impact. We cut our FY23F earnings by 9% and our TP to RM0.62 (from RM0.75) but maintain our OUTPERFORM rating. -------------------------------------------------
Thanks Gabriel. Based on the Youtube interview with Navigator CEO shared a couple weeks ago, we are still 9 mths to a year away from any definitive deal being signed with a customer, and then a further 3 years to operationalisation. Conservatively, this venture, if it does indeed materialise, will only see "first C02" in mid 2027, still a good 4 years away. Plus, I do not believe this will be a particularly highly profitable venture like FPSO given the smaller capex outlay. Where Naviagtor and Bumi will need to aim for, over the longer term, would be to have multiple clusters, as they'll have higher margins with a larger volume of said business. Still, a step in the right direction, but with limited near to medium term financial upside.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
nikicheong
2,560 posts
Posted by nikicheong > 2023-07-04 17:42 | Report Abuse
@jasongks
My friend, you are foolish to think this forum has even an iota of impact on the market direction (except maybe in rare circumstances when market-moving insider information is shared, such as the resumption of Kraken oil production more than a week before Bumi Armada announced it).
Pessimism is as much welcomed, if not more welcomed, than optimism. Especially if it is substantiated.