Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2023-07-20 16:29 | Report Abuse

You are just an arm chair warrior who is clueless. Crystal ball pancit and 42 sen my foot. Please GFY

rr88

Dont waste yr time here.
The DAMAGE TO SENTIMENT HAS BEEN PERMANENT with or without kraken.

It will retest 0.42 low.


1 hour ago

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-07-20 16:32 | Report Abuse

I still have some concerns on this incident impact to the bareboat charter rate of Armada Kraken. The Armada management is still silent on the financial impact.

Posted by armadatuah2017 > 2023-07-20 16:38 | Report Abuse

dia bukan silent, hanya bagitau u, materialise impact blum dpt estimate...tunggu la sebentar....kena nego ngan Enquest jugak.....kat parai la you.

Posted by armadatuah2017 > 2023-07-20 16:45 | Report Abuse

boss said only give 0.52 today, so terima aje la...

Posted by MM78 > 2023-07-20 16:48 | Report Abuse

The lack of update on Kraken during the shut in period from Bumi Armada Management have negative impact of my trust of them greatly. However, I have added more Bumi Armad shares during the during the crisis based on Bumi Armada business model and the strong free cash flow of the business in the last few years. It is still the flagship in my share investment portfolio.

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-07-20 17:01 | Report Abuse

I also added lots in June. The price drop was more than the maximum possible damage the incident could cause.

Posted by mikeann > 2023-07-20 17:24 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/pricetarget/research/67845

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-07-20 19:28 | Report Abuse

The key learning pts here is the hsp can be refurbished and the lead time is not as scary as the analysts shared. So now just lool forqard for the green agenda plan

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-07-20 20:03 | Report Abuse

Financial impact:
On the back of the envelope: 60 days at half production (2 mln myr rate) is 60 million ringit. Repair costs are minimal. Also some shut-in is back credited from planned maintenane period Q3 2023.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-07-20 20:13 | Report Abuse

Robert I think the financial impact might be higher.

20 days zero production
10 days 50% production
30 days 60% production

That's around 38% production for the two months from 20th May (day of issue) until today.

Negating impact would be two week single train maintenence work (I.e. 2 weeks at 50% peoduction) was covered in this tike period.

I estimate a return to 100% production within 2 weeks.

Cost of repair conservative estimate would be RM10mil.

No other financial penalty from Enquest other than credit (I.e. clawback) of dayrate for u fulfilled production capacity

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2023-07-20 21:13 | Report Abuse

Thanks robert. Im not good at this

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-07-21 00:23 | Report Abuse

I was kidding. Really, just a piece of kit.

Posted by Robert Waters > 2023-07-21 00:42 | Report Abuse

Thank you niki.
So per your exact calculation lost money is: 0.62 x 120 = 74.4 mln RM.
Add repair cost, minus credit for shutdown maintenance.
Contract will have more detailed clauses.

Posted by rohank71 > 2023-07-21 01:03 | Report Abuse

tomorrow close above 55 will b great.. above 58, which means 62 is in sight. surely will go up. let have a good weekend.

Posted by spyking > 2023-07-21 07:51 | Report Abuse

Where is rr88?

Posted by Diamond7 > 2023-07-21 07:56 | Report Abuse

Good news today!
Armada will harvest good profits...
Coming quarterly report will be good!
A good growth company...
Brent n crude oil moving up up..

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-07-21 08:41 | Report Abuse

Please share updated research reports!

Posted by ITreeinvestor > 2023-07-21 09:54 | Report Abuse

Kenanga Report
KUALA LUMPUR: The ongoing restoration of Bumi Armada Bhd's Armada Kraken floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel could put the facility's operations back on track within the next one or two months, says Kenanga Research.

In a note, the research firm said it is positive over the progressive restoration of the Kraken FPSO's production, which cushions concerns of a major financial impact to Bumi Armada.

This comes following the offshore service provider's announcement yesterday that it had reconditioned and reinstalled a hydraulic submersible pump (HSP) transformer on the vessel, which brought its operating level back to 90% of pre-shutdown levels.

"We applaud Bumi Armada for reinstating operations close to full capacity in less than two months since the first shut-in announcement," said Kenanga in its company update.

On June 2, 2023, Bumi Armada announced that the Kraken FPSO had experienced a production shut-in following the failure of its HSP transformer unit, guiding that that there would be material impact resulting from the Kraken's shut-in.

By June 21, the Kraken achieved start-up and was able to operate at about 60% of its pre-shutdown levels.

Kenanga said it factored in a partial loss of bareboat charter income from the Kraken for June to August 2023, which is reflected by a "benign" 9% impact in its current forecasts


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Following the latest update, Kenanga said it maintained its "outperform" recommendation and sum-of-parts target price of 62 sen a share.

"We like Armada for sustained traction in its efforts to deleverage its balance sheet (current net gearing: 0.8x), long-term earnings visibility from substantial orderbook in excess of RM20bil (including extension options), and it being the leading contender for a US$1bil EPCC contract for FPSO Cameia," it said.

However, it cautioned that investor sentiment may still be dragged lower by the possibility that the financial impact of the Kraken shut-in may be larger than expected.

It said there could also be substantial vessel repair and maintenance costs that are not fully covered by insurance, while client Enquest may request for reimbursement or impose penalties on Bumi Armada.

Posted by RayLee > 2023-07-21 10:21 | Report Abuse

Nice sharing, ITreeinvestor. As expected, Armada is breaking 50 cents again

Posted by success2628 > 2023-07-21 10:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Felix888 > 2023-07-21 10:41 | Report Abuse

Where is the gostan sifu? Gostan pergi mana? Masuk longkang?

Posted by success2628 > 2023-07-21 11:15 | Report Abuse

Bumi Armada's Kraken restoration cushions risk of major financial impact
Friday, 21 Jul 2023 9:36 AM MYT
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/07/21/bumi-armada039s-kraken-restoration-cushions-risk-of-major-financial-impact

KUALA LUMPUR: The ongoing restoration of Bumi Armada Bhd's Armada Kraken floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel could put the facility's operations back on track within the next one or two months, says Kenanga Research.

In a note, the research firm said it is positive over the progressive restoration of the Kraken FPSO's production, which cushions concerns of a major financial impact to Bumi Armada.

This comes following the offshore service provider's announcement yesterday that it had reconditioned and reinstalled a hydraulic submersible pump (HSP) transformer on the vessel, which brought its operating level back to 90% of pre-shutdown levels.

"We applaud Bumi Armada for reinstating operations close to full capacity in less than two months since the first shut-in announcement," said Kenanga in its company update.
On June 2, 2023, Bumi Armada announced that the Kraken FPSO had experienced a production shut-in following the failure of its HSP transformer unit, guiding that that there would be material impact resulting from the Kraken's shut-in.
By June 21, the Kraken achieved start-up and was able to operate at about 60% of its pre-shutdown levels.
Kenanga said it factored in a partial loss of bareboat charter income from the Kraken for June to August 2023, which is reflected by a "benign" 9% impact in its current forecasts

Following the latest update, Kenanga said it maintained its "outperform" recommendation and sum-of-parts target price of 62 sen a share.
"We like Armada for sustained traction in its efforts to deleverage its balance sheet (current net gearing: 0.8x), long-term earnings visibility from substantial orderbook in excess of RM20bil (including extension options), and it being the leading contender for a US$1bil EPCC contract for FPSO Cameia," it said.
However, it cautioned that investor sentiment may still be dragged lower by the possibility that the financial impact of the Kraken shut-in may be larger than expected.
It said there could also be substantial vessel repair and maintenance costs that are not fully covered by insurance, while client Enquest may request for reimbursement or impose penalties on Bumi Armada.

Posted by joyvest > 2023-07-21 11:18 | Report Abuse

Operating level back to 90% of pre-shutdown levels doesnt seem to be good enough for its share price to spike. What the market seems to desire is 100% of restoration. Hence, its still a long way for the company to return to normalise........

Posted by Fklim888 > 2023-07-21 11:49 | Report Abuse

So hard and heavy breakthrough ya....

Posted by Max2838 > 2023-07-21 11:49 | Report Abuse

Cautious Mgt would state 90% though operating conditions have normalise...

Posted by Max2838 > 2023-07-21 11:59 | Report Abuse

The not-so-cautious Mgt are the CGS-CIMB, HLIB, Apex that made the call on 2 June of a 6 mth shut-in of Kraken....

Posted by success2628 > 2023-07-21 12:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-07-21 12:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by spyking > 2023-07-21 12:43 | Report Abuse

rr88 we miss you

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-07-21 12:49 | Report Abuse

Kraken FPSO now operating at 90%

Yesterday, Armada announced that one of the three malfunctioned HSP transformers for the Armada Kraken FPSO has been reconditioned. We gather that the vessel’s operational performance has returned to approximately 90% of pre-shutdown levels. We are positive on this development.
Previously because of the shutdown, we have imputed a 6-months downtime for the FPSO based on a daily charter rate of approximately USD480k/day (or USD175m/year)
– which we now realise is not as severe as expected. In view of this Kraken FPSO issue likely being entirely resolved by FY23 and assuming full status quo in FY24f, we maintain our BUY recommendation on Armada with a higher TP of RM0.71 – pegged to a P/E multiple of 6x on rolled-over mid-FY24f earnings, which is at a 35% discount to its peer Yinson’s one-year forward multiple of 9x. With that, we reinstate Armada as our top pick in the sector.

NEWSBREAK
Yesterday, Armada announced that one of the three malfunctioned HSP transformers
for the Armada Kraken FPSO has been reconditioned. We gather that the vessel’s
operational performance has returned to approximately 90% of pre-shutdown levels.
HLIB’s VIEW Positive – two out of four HSP transformers are now up and running. Recall that Armada earlier announced on 21 June 2023 that its Armada Kraken FPSO has startup and was at 60% of pre-shutdown production levels – following the failure of three out of four of its critical HSP transformers previously. Now, we understand that the
said FPSO is running on two out of four HSP transformers after one of the faulty ones
has been reconditioned and the FPSO’s performance has returned to about 90% of
pre-shutdown levels. We are positive on this development.

Not as severe as initially expected. Previously because of the shutdown, we have imputed a 6-months downtime for the FPSO based on a daily charter rate of approximately USD480k/day (or USD175m/year) – which we now realise is not as severe as expected. However, we highlight that there is a good possibility that because of its current suboptimal production levels (optimal would be 95% and above), the group may not be able to rake in full bareboat charter rates until the problem gets fully resolved.


Forecast. Unchanged. We view that a downtime of 6 months is prudent enough (for additional repair and maintenance costs due to Kraken’s shutdown) given the current developments of the group. To be conservative, we make no changes to our forecasts and we now believe that there is a possibility of upside earnings risk to our FY23f net profit estimates.

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2023-07-21 12:50 | Report Abuse

Hong Leong Investment Bank TP RM 0.71

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-07-21 13:04 | Report Abuse

The Hong Leong research report still says 6 months downtime.

The fact is, the plan is to get the FPSO producing and operating at 100% capacity by 5th of August 2023.

As for the financial impact, my simple, back-of-the-envelope calculation is around RM60mil at the low end to RM90mil at the upper end (around 1 to 1.5 sen worth per share, which is not all that much).

The financial impact would be slightly more pronounced I reckon given the high USDMYR rate from end May to mid July. Coincidently, Bumi Armada would not have been able to "enjoy" these higher exchange rates (>4.6 USDMYR) sadly.

On the whole, I'd still expect the annual core net profit to come in at around RM720mil.

Posted by nikicheong > 2023-07-21 13:22 | Report Abuse

The "missed profits" from being unable to capitalize on the higher fx rates is around RM2.5mil. Small but still, "free profits" that have been squandered

Posted by xuxu > 2023-07-21 14:21 | Report Abuse

Armada jadi roket lepas rr88 jual hehe

Posted by Diamond7 > 2023-07-21 14:23 | Report Abuse

Good...moving up slowly!

Posted by Fklim888 > 2023-07-21 14:46 | Report Abuse

today closing 0.55 baru cantek

Posted by David Gunter > 2023-07-21 14:53 | Report Abuse

rr88 really confirmed bodoh

Posted by Fklim888 > 2023-07-21 14:59 | Report Abuse

rr88 buy high....sell high lol

Posted by success2628 > 2023-07-21 15:00 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by rr88 > 2023-07-21 15:08 | Report Abuse

Normal lar. Up, up, up, you buy thinking to make some money, then it drops. Then you sell at a loss. The the first to escape, lose less. The last to run, lose more. The ones who hold, will suffer.

Perfectly normal.

Recon equipment. Like a recon car. Anytime can caput one.

Take my words. It will retest 0.42.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-07-21 15:11 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by The_JQuestion > 2023-07-21 15:12 | Report Abuse

rr88 pls give ur low TPs everywhere and come back make a joke about 1.20 AAX and 0.59 Capt A

Posted by rr88 > 2023-07-21 15:13 | Report Abuse

=> 0.53 => 0.515 => 0.53 + (0.53 - 0.515) = 0.545 => 0.53 => 0.515 => 0.515 - (0.545 - 0.515) = 0.485 => after some ding dong ding dong, => 0.485 - (0.545 - 0.485) = 0.425

I am the master, i am 50 steps ahead of you.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-07-21 15:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by James_Bond > 2023-07-21 15:17 | Report Abuse

Bought armada 0.54, Cheers!

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-07-21 15:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by rr88 > 2023-07-21 15:21 | Report Abuse

Aax will drop below 1.00 towards 0.80.
CapitalA will go to 2.00.
CapitalA = 1.28 (11oct2021) + [1.28 - 0.56 (double bottom 07feb2022 & 01dec2022)] = 1.28 + (1.28 - 0.56) = 2.00.

The initial plan to inject CapitalA airline business into Aax cancelled. Aax will go to square 1, capitalA will breakout above 1.28.

Yr brain is too small compared to master's brain. Thats why you cant see all these.

Posted by rr88 > 2023-07-21 15:23 | Report Abuse

I made rm12.8 mil to be exact, since 1992, when you were still in yr cradle sucking on milk bottle.

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-07-21 15:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Zhuge_Liang > 2023-07-21 15:27 |

Post removed.Why?