In 15 October 2018, Ooi Teik Bee wrote this. Will he come back to this stock? Hmmm
"Dear valued members, Enclosed is the technical chart of Hibiscus for your perusal. Please note the correlation between Brent Crude price and share price of Hibiscus. When the price of Brent Crude oil is up, the price of Hibiscus will be moved up correspondingly. I believe the Brent Crude oil price will hit USD 100 in Q4 2018, hence the share price of Hibiscus will move up north accordingly. The reason Mr Donovan Ang projected the price of Hibiscus to be 5.50 in 2020 because he also projected the Brent Crude oil price to be USD 175 in 2020. Please read my technical chart to understand it. Final decision to buy is always yours. Thank you. Ooi 寧可天下人負我, 休教我負天下人 Disclaimer : Please be informed that the aforesaid stocks are solely for the purpose of education only ; it is neither a trading advice nor an invitation to trade. For trading advice, please speak to your remisier or dealer representative. Final decision to buy is always yours."
the whole of Bursa will benefit. our FOrex also dont forget Malaysia is still a heavy oil GDP company + commodities. So yeah, hopefully our Economy will spike back to better position. thanks. :P
Petronas carigali is not public company.. Left only 2 counter available for in Oil & Gas Exploration and Production play that is hibiscus and sapura. This 2 counter has oil well to gain benefits in Brent spike up. With debt on sapura, I'll go for hibiscus.
KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 11): RHB Retail Research said Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd is resuming its strong uptrend as it bounced off from the recent pullback and broke past the 80.5 sen recent high on high trading volume.
In a trading stocks note on Monday, the research house said bullish momentum above that level may lift the stock towards the 91.5 sen resistance, followed by RM1.06 – the multi-month high.
1) Hibiscus bidded Repsol assets around Jan 2021, with Brent crude price around USD 50-55/bbl
2) Most of the oil and gas M&A are based on backwardation of future Brent price, which means Brent crude will be getting cheaper in the future. Page 11 showed RPS Energy Consultants Limited predicted Brent crude price will be USD 57 in 2022, USD 55 in 2023 and USD 53 in 2024.
3)Total net cash flows expected to be generated over the next 5 years (2021 – 2025) by Repsol asses is USD255m, also based on this backwardation of future Brent price.
4)EBITDA contribution of USD135m (RM558.8m) is expected in calendar year 2022, might be based on USD 57/bbl
In my opinion, there are 2 key ways management will create value for shareholders through the Repsol acquisition:
1) Like twynstar mentioned above, management has forecasted total net cash inflows of USD255 million over the next 5 years, premised upon oil prices of USD53-57 USD per barrel. This equates to approximately USD51 million a year.
Note that Hibiscus raised USD50 million from issuance of CRPS in 2020, of which will be paid to fund the acquisition. The remaining consideration of approximately USD165 million will be funded via a combination of cash balances accruing in Repsol since 1 January 2021 until completion and debt issuance.
What does this all mean? This essentially means, at a conservative oil price assumption, Hibiscus is paying USD50 million to get USD51 million of net cash inflow every year for the next 5 years. If oil price averages USD70 per barrel, the net cash inflow figure will be jacked up much much further. In my opinion, this strategy has paid off handsomely and it is a matter of time before the numbers emerge.
2) Very simply, in the Pareto Securities presentation, in FY2021, Hibiscus achieved an ebitda of USD90 million USD based on oil prices of USD50 per barrel. Ebitda for Repsol is projected to be USD135 million based on oil prices of USD57 per barrel in 2022.
Now, assuming that the cost structure (depreciation and decom costs is the same for both assets), the profitability of Hibiscus is immediately enhanced by a factor of 1.5x post acquisition. Simply put, if my profitability and cash generation is enhanced by a factor of 1.5x, then naturally I would expect Hibiscus to appreciate by 1.5x over the next 6 months.
To top it all off, oil prices has far surpassed all assumptions and forecast and the profitability of Hibiscus will only follow as well.
Recently oil are shortage and winter all signal are bring benefits to oil n gas counter. And this counter continue uptrend a few day and sure will do collection la.....like today sure big kaki through tickets to scare people then collect more cheaper ticket before pull up again.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mikecyc
45,527 posts
Posted by Mikecyc > 2021-10-11 14:35 |
Post removed.Why?