All indicators are strong but only thing is that we are different! Hopeless companies can limit up and continue to limit up and fake revenue company has so many support from retailers! Malaysia boleh! Boleh apa? I am not sure!
How much they sold so far after 3Q? 2.5mil bbl? How much they expect to sell for FY22? 4.6Mil bbl, means last Quarter Apr-Jun they will sell 2.1mil which is equal to Total of last 9 months, Q4 revenue should be RM1.01Bil if oil price stay at $110, MYR 4.4. so how much is PAT with RM1.01B Revenue?
FY2022 Offtake Schedule Figure 2 below illustrates the latest estimate of the Group’s oil and condensate offtake schedule and gas sales from our producing assets for the Next Quarter and FY2022. As of 31 March 2022, we have sold a total of 2.6 MMboe of oil, condensate and gas net to the Group. For FY2022, we estimate to deliver a total of approximately 4.6 MMboe of oil, condensate and gas, net to the Group.
The three numbers above are Revenue, Profit before tax and net profit. Can someone explain why the revenue is so low??? Production has jumped from about 9000 barrels equivalent to 20, 000 barrels per day. So why revenue increase just by 20% from a year earlier before Repsol purchase. Second question is why the profit declared is so much higher than the revenue??? Apa ini??? Accounting magic kah??? No wonder when the results were announced the share price straight fall and fall.
Revenue in lay man terms is SALES !!! If sales increase only 20% when compared to one year ago, it means something is not right. The management needs to clarify. Production jump by 100%++ but revenue increase by only 20%??????? Hello??? Apa ini???
Hey! Already mentioned that producing and selling is a different thing altogether! They extract oil and sell it now! Ok! This published oil average is at USD89! Damn good. They have foresight and will definitely sell more this quarter
Just like if you know in the coming months your products will go up in price, you will source more of it, it this case they are extracting more than they sell in anticipation of high oil price! A good management with foresight has acquired Repsol at low price hence they are allowed to recognise negative goodwill. Sapura on the other hand purchased companies at the peak and now suffering! This is hopeless management with 90 mil salary
Kaki minyak, Q3 revenue was not as high as the production indicated because they kept the oil in the tank and sold most of the volume in the following quarter (Apr, May, Jun) - where the oil price was a lot higher. Good strategy.
Just a brief review of latest results: (vs last quarter) 1. In terms of Cash from Operations- grew from RM277 mil to RM616 mil 2. FCF: from RM268 to RM537 mil (disregarding one-off capex) 3. Interest coverage ratio dropped from >9x to 1.6x, in line with increased borrowings from RM19.2 mil to RM183mil 4. Finance cost also grew QoQ from RM20.4m to RM36.9mil
My worry is if the elevated borrowings can act as a source of financial risk. Otherwise, with the buoyant Brent & gas prices, FCF generation should be better going forward, especially as we are waiting from another >2mil bbl to be produced for this Quarter April to June 22.
Hopefully, Management will be extra cautious with capital management.
With 2.1 million boe in Q4 (double Q3 sale volume as most inventory to be monetised and full 3 months FIPC production), higher average oil price by 15%, and higher USD-Myr conversion rate by 5%, it is going to be better results definitely. Pare down the debt and accumulate capital to develop the contingent reserves and higher dividend pls.
Production and selling is different thing. You can produce doesn't mean you need to sell immediately. Hibiscus operate by selling oil in batch. This quarter only got 1 offtake, they didn't sell much oil.
Many good points noted. If they can accumulate the chickens in the coop and sell more at higher price than why not? Sure will be good loh. But i don't think can count chicken or eggs until we see the results in time to come. Which is another 3 months wait. Meanwhile can expect lots of volatility. My concern for now is the lower sales revenue as compared to the expected triple after Repsol acquisition. Let's not forget it is not so much how much oil you have but how big is the demand and at what price. The price is beautiful but demand? That is now the key. What are the effects of China lockdowns and high price of oil at the pump. I personally have reduced travel to save on the increased expense. many others also doing the same?
report says expected to produce/sell 4.6m boe as of FY2022, or july 21 - june 22, and since they have sold 2.6m boe as of Q3 cummulative, it means that Q4 alone they will sell 2m boe..... just in 1 quarter !!! Secondly, they sold about 1.5m boe in Q3 and made 15c EPS, that means Q4 EPS will be 20c prorated assume same price..... full year FY2022, thats about 40c EPS and against price of RM1.37 thats P/E of 3.425.... is this correct?
Output never increase but cost hike. Thus, current share price only have limited upsize range. After big players cash out, may have more adjustmentmore
Come on la!!! Share price up or down, all FULLY CONTROLLED by JPM la!!! They want it up, all positive goodwill explanation will come out! If they want it down for their collection, all negative goodwill reasons will be out too!!! Owners or retailers zero right to say it so!!! Just read the syndicates minds & moves, then can understand more!!!
Markv572421.....you must be punting this stock ....and loss alot yesterday......although you hate this stock still got heart to buy low.....kikikikikikikih......sabar boss
Some key pointers: 1.Missed expectations – not due to operational/production issues but the unfortunate timing of offtakes in 3QFY22.
2.Revenue was flat while core net profit was down by 28% despite ours and market’s initial expectations of a multi-fold earnings growth QoQ. This is due to a misconception that production volume equals sales volume. For Hibiscus, sales are usually done in batches known as “offtakes”.
3.As production volumes does not equate to sales volumes, we opine that it would be more appropriate to analyse Hibiscus on an annual basis – rather than quarter-to quarter as offtake batches are lumpy and huge in nature, which may deviate or create an earnings vacuum in certain quarters.
4.On a QoQ comparison, 3QFY22 core net profit fell 37% QoQ to RM31mil due to the halving of North Sabah sales volume to 300K barrels as the company managed a single offtake vs. 2 in 2QFY22. Additionally, there was no sales offtake for Repsol asset’s Kinabalu production sharing contract (PSC).
5.We highlight that average daily net production decreased 21% QoQ to 4,695 barrels for North Sabah in 3QFY22 from unplanned production interruptions in January 2022 and an annual planned maintenance campaign in March this year.
6.Likewise, Anasuria also experienced an average daily net production decline of 20% QoQ to 1,983 barrels in 3QFY22 due to a continuing production riser malfunction, which is now expected to be rectified in 3Q2022.
Based on key pointer #3 3.As production volumes does not equate to sales volumes, we opine that it would be more appropriate to analyse Hibiscus on an annual basis – rather than quarter-to quarter as offtake batches are lumpy and huge in nature, which may deviate or create an earnings vacuum in certain quarters.
Summary: It will be difficult to determine annual earnings since crude oil prices can fluctuate upwards or downwards of more than 20%-30% within a few weeks. By the time it reaches the offtakes period towards year end, hopefully crude oil remain above USD100pbl.
Run. Pancit dy. Tp 1.00. Without negative goodwill, profit is very low. Money flowing somewhere on cost n expenses. That was why you saw heavy selling yesterday. Up bcause goreng kaki scooped it up to play2 for a while. It is going down. First stop 1.14. Next stop 1.00.
Run. Pancit dy. Tp 1.00. Without negative goodwill, profit is very low. Money flowing somewhere on cost n expenses. That was why you saw heavy selling yesterday. Up bcause goreng kaki scooped it up to play2 for a while. It is going down. First stop 1.14. Next stop 1.00.
Standby time to buy again when hit 1.35 & below and then target to sell at 1.39 & above. Lucky to do it this morning with 4 cts profit per share , wo wo
Yes, you're right as witnessed in 2007/2008 financial crisis where crude oil top USD140pbl and slump to USD40 pbl in 6 months. But the fact is no one can tell this event until it happens. Besides that, it happens only once in 10-12 years. You can wait till it happens.
Now, only Mr. Putin know the temporary short term trends!!! US now are trying very damn hard to pull the price of gold(Russia reserve the most), oil & Gas down!!! Unfortunately, the Gas price is exceptional from US controlled where the shipping cost will kill their price if export to Europe!!! So, we can see the Gas price now is in historical high for ‘many times’ already, but the gold and petrol still far from historical high!!! So, let’s see how Putin going to break it??? Wait until winter come???
its a virtual company who refuses to pay you a "Proper" dividend money but does it have money? to pay dividend in the first place since it refused to pay you a proper dividend?
Virtual Companies who do not exist have extremely low valuations
Buying whatever always depend on our own needs and target! Just like MK durian, I’m buying lesser when price hiking at 70~100/kg especially early season, and increase buying more n more when price coming to lower 30~60… so can’t always buying one time at the lowest price!!! And selling is about same method too, can’t always sell at the highest price!!!
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colin888
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Posted by colin888 > 2022-05-25 20:37 | Report Abuse
All indicators are strong but only thing is that we are different! Hopeless companies can limit up and continue to limit up and fake revenue company has so many support from retailers! Malaysia boleh! Boleh apa? I am not sure!