Malaysian Tapis Crude was at $132.38 yesterday.. Not quoted today but probably up to $135.. Hibiscus has around 300k of oil to offtake this month in Sabah. Happy days ;)
Crude markets rose for a fourth time in five days, hitting a high of almost $125 a barrel for a three-month peak, as oil bulls wagered on the rally continuing after positive data on U.S. gasoline consumption set aside fears of demand destruction from record high fuel prices.
China’s emergence from Covid scares could boost greater demand for oil from the world’s largest importer of the commodity, while an oil workers’ strike in Norway this weekend threatens to further curb global supplies, traders said. - By Barani Krishnan
Goldman Sachs on Tuesday said oil could hit $140 a barrel in coming months. Oil remains off its all-time high just shy of $150 a barrel set in 2008, but gasoline prices have hit records, with analysts blaming tight supplies of products on both sides of the Atlantic and limited refining capacity.
EIA data showing the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve falling by a record of more than 7 million barrels last week, some two million more a week than in mid-May.
The SPR’s balance stood at 519.3 million barrels for the week ended June 3, down 7.3 million barrels from the prior week to May 27, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report released Wednesday.
The drawdown compares with the 5 million barrels taken out of the oil reserve during the week to May 13. - EIA
The SPR balance itself remained at 35-year lows, hitting a trough last seen in March 1987.
How much you have to pay if you want to take over Hibiscus?
1) Dialog announced that it is acquiring the entire 100% equity interest in Pan Orient Energy Corp (POEC) for a cash consideration of USD38.7m
2) POES(siam) is the operator of Concession L53/48, onshore Thailand, which expires in 2035 with an optional 10-year renewal period, is located 100km northwest of Bangkok and consists of 7 onshore producing fields. POES produced 2,700 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in 2021, averaging 1,105 bopd in 1Q2022.
2) Based on HLIB calculation, the POEC is valued to be USD16.2 for each dollar of its 2P reserves (EV/2P)
3) With current share price of RM 1.30 and market cap of RM 2.6b, Hibiscus’s estimated 2P reserves of 77.3m as at 1 Jan 2022 and 75.9m as at 31 March 2022, HLIB and Ambank highlight that the market currently values Hibiscus at an EV/2P valuation of USD7.4/barrel, at a discount of 49% to EnQuest's US$14/barrel and 59% to the regional average of US$18/barrel.
4) If Dialog plans to take over Hibiscus with EV/2P valuation of USD 16.2/barrel, Dialog has to pay = (16.2/7.4) x RM 1.30 = RM 2.85
So, you have to pay RM 2.85 per share to take over Hibiscus based on Dialog latest valuation.
twynstar - exactly. I just do not understand the discount of 49% and 59% used by AmInvest. What is it that justify these large discounts, poor management, just being in Malaysia, execution risks (not able to realize the 2P reserve)? AmInvest should explain.
Reading AmInvest report again, it infer the missed production ("erratic" in the report) of Repsol assets in Q3 22. This is rather harsh as it has been explained by management. Reasons given is within operational risks and also completion of Repsol deal is what it is. To deem it erratic (given previous track record) is overly conservative and also given Q4 22 barrels (to be) sold was provided.
Comic book chart reader, why don't you post all these at Hibby forum. Try and you'll be roasted. They are so many sifu and maths masters there...Go try....all your stupeeeeed posting below :
scjm hibis head and shoulder..koyak lor
scjm correction wave c down
scjm we wait at 1.20 ...lai lai lai
scjm bearish hidden divergence..price higher low but oscillator lower low....hibis a goner...cabut whilst you can
An explosion in Texas has knocked out 20% of US LNG export capacity for at least three weeks
One of the largest US plants producing liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export has been damaged by an explosion and fire. The incident has forced the Texas Gulf Coast facility to cease operations in a move expected to impact European and Asian markets.
“As a result of today’s fire, Freeport LNG’s liquefaction facility is currently shut down and will remain shut down for a minimum of three weeks,” the company announced on Wednesday night, providing no further details.
KUALA LUMPUR (June 9): Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) is allocating about RM60 billion for capital expenditure (capex) in financial year ending Dec 31, 2022 (FY22) compared with RM30.5 billion a year earlier as the Malaysian national oil company prepares for the resumption of business activities, which were earlier disrupted by Covid-19-driven movement restrictions, and as the group sets aside money for clean energy or non-hydrocarbon-related ventures. "This year, we expect to almost double that [capex] amount which is RM60 billion, because of catch-up and the return of [business] activities. This is also the time we have to make inroads in some material steps into the non-hydrocarbon side of things," Petronas chief financial officer Liza Mustapha said on Thursday (June 9) at the MIDF Conversations event, which was held virtually. MIDF group managing director Datuk Charon Mokhzani was the moderator for the event. Liza said that out of Petronas' planned RM60 billion capex allocation for FY22, about RM40 billion has been earmarked for the oil and gas business besides non-hydrocarbon–related operations while the balance of the capex allocation has been earmarked to finance Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd's (PetChem) wholly-owned subsidiary Petronas Chemicals International B.V. (PCIBV) proposed acquisition of the entire stake in Sweden-based specialty chemicals group Perstorp Holding AB for €1.54 billion (about RM7.02 billion) from Financiere Foret S.A.R.L. Petronas owns a 64.35% stake in PetChem, according to PetChem's latest annual report. Looking ahead, Liza said non-hydrocarbon-related income is expected to account for about 30% of Petronas' revenue. "[About] 30% of our revenue should be coming from something which is not related to hydrocarbons. "We have to factor in [business] growth, otherwise, we will not be able to manage the energy transition and we will miss our target of achieving [net] zero [carbon] emissions by 2050," she said. According to her, about 10% of Petronas' RM60 billion capex allocation for FY22 will be earmarked for non-traditional businesses such as specialty chemicals and solar energy. "Previously, I think there was never a plan on what rate it should be [for the clean energy segment] because there was no allocation from the top. So, it didn't really take off. "So, we need to rethink our decision on the capital allocation [for the clean energy segment] and put it aside, because if we leave it at that and let them go with the flow, we are going to be a year behind the target again," she said. Petronas' financials improved in 1QFY22. In a statement on May 31, 2022, Petronas said profit after tax rose to RM23.44 billion in 1QFY22 from RM9.22 billion a year earlier while revenue climbed to RM78.75 billion from RM52.55 billion. "Despite favourable [first quarter] performance, the high oil and gas prices are expected to remain vulnerable with increased volatility due to geopolitical and macro-economic uncertainties. "Petronas will continue to strengthen our operational excellence to maximise value creation whilst intensifying our growth and sustainability agenda in Malaysia and internationally,” the company said.
Hibiscus Petroleum (HIBI MK) Maintain BUY and MYR1.90 TP
Whilst 3Q22 results were skewed by off-takes timing differences, Hibiscus is on track to meet our FY estimate, with Repsol being a prominent feature in 4Q22. Our TP is unchanged, pegged to a USD10/boe of EV/2P reserves valuation; undemanding relative to peers’ USD18/boe
Expect a sterling 4Q22 performance Whilst we lowered FY22’s earnings by 5%, adjusting for the North Sabah impact in 3Q22, we expect Hibiscus to report a strong 4Q22; a 5-fold QoQ increase in earnings. Our FY23-24 estimates are unchanged. Overall, Hibiscus remains the best play for a cyclical, rising energy price market. It is fundamentally sound, financially resilient and offers compelling growth (3-year NP CAGR of 80%) with undemanding valuations.
It's sad for Hibiscus not performing at this high crude oil and gas season. I believe it's partly affected by news of UK windfall tax of 25%, inconsistent in off-takes, subsea riser malfunction and the recent Sabah SST tax concerns.
@Paktua73, Thats short sellers work. They have a syndicate in klse. They love bad news whether or not its related to Hibiscs. There was a story long time ago. A remisier offered on Dato for a quick money. The Dato gave him MYR1.5mil one day. The remisier promised to triple his money in 3 days time. 3 weeks later, he was missing and his wife made a police report. Police looked for the guy. He was found ditched in a monsoon drain in Cheras burnt with mattress wrapped around his body. Police called in the Dato for questioning but later released. Rumour has it that the owner of the stock hired others to teach the bugger a lesson. Things went wrong...
KOTA KINABALU (June 10): The Sabah government remains fully committed to pursuing all its constitutional and legislative rights to recover the State Sales Tax (SST) due for the sale of petroleum products from both Repsol Oil and Gas Ltd (REPSOL) and SEA Hibiscus Sdn Bhd (SEAH).
Sabah Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Masidi Manjun said the step is in accordance with the State Sales Tax Enactment 1988.
KOTA KINABALU: Sabah might never get the 20% oil royalty that it is hoping for due to pre-existing agreements with international corporations, says state Barisan Nasional chief Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin.
He said the 20% oil royalty is not an easy matter to achieve, which is why the Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, comprising Perikatan Nasional and PBS, will set up a Sabah Petroleum Council among others as per the “Aku Janji” pledge. He said this is a way to give the funds back to Sabahans as it is not likely that the 5% oil royalty Sabah is getting at present can be increased.
“We have done our research on MA63, and actually, this claim has been made for many years, it is not new, but it is difficult for the Federal Government to approve it, as it is almost impossible, ” Bung said.
He said the agreement was signed after Independence with international corporations including mega companies. He said Malaysia once had no oil drilling specialty that is why Malaysia needed to use foreign specialists, and the amount was agreed when these agreements were signed.
“So there is no way we can get 20%, ” Bung said.
To this, he said, there are other means to get what is owed to Sabah. He said elected representatives are here to serve, not to be served.
“We don’t want a chief minister to be treated like a sultan, same goes to elected representatives, no need to act like big bosses where you have bodyguards here and there, ” he said. - The Star
Masidi Manjin is the one who appear on TV acted as Covid19 coordinator. He is a party component in Party Bersatu. He is well known as an attention seeker and he did this to gain political mileage.
Fishermen go out to the sea and catch fish. He came back to shore and sell fish to fish trader. So, do fishermen have to pay local government 5% SST for every fish he catch on top of his income tax? What happen if he doesnt want to pay? What local government can do? Put on fences on all jetties and beaches so that fishermen pay their SST before they can go catch fish at sea? Which local enforcement bodies will do the enforcement? Which court have the power to stop and punish local fishermen for not paying SST to State Goverment? All Hibiscs crude oil goes to LCOT in Labuan. SBM picks up crude oil and send to local refineries in Pengerang, Melaka and Port Dickson. Why should Hibiscs pays SST to Sabah? Short sellers will try and capitalise on this issue. Their attempt will fail only if shareholders understand this will has no effect on their holdings. Wish us all the best.
Loading up more.. Oil drops $2 and hibiscus drops 8%.. Fundamentals still extremely sound and stock is cheap. Holding and waiting for correction (just wait for end August).
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
bullmarket1628
3,711 posts
Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2022-06-09 07:19 |
Post removed.Why?