Consequently, we made no changes to our earnings forecast and we maintain our BUY recommendation on OCK with an unchanged target price of RM1.00. Our target price is derived from a sum-ofparts (SOP) approach as we valued its telecommunication network services and green energy & power solutions business segments on a discounted cash flow approach (key assumptions include a WACC of 9.0%, terminal growth rate of 1.5%) to reflect its ability to generate recurring revenues and steady earnings growth over the longer term.
The estimated effect will be positive, issue at PE 25.65x, buying the towers with payback period of about PE 6.66x, the private placement enhance shareholders' value per share.
On your mark - The company is in intense talks for another business opportunity for the telecommunications industry in Vietnam that could add to its bottomline moving forward.
“I cannot say too much about this now due to the non-disclosure agreement, but briefly we think the discussions are quite positive and we hope to be able to announce something soon,” Ooi says.
Get set - The Board of Directors of OCK Group Berhad (“OCK” or “the Company”) wishes to announce that OCK SEA TOWERS PTE LTD, a wholly-owned subsidiary company of the company had on 16 June 2016 completed the incorporation OCK VIETNAM TOWERS PTE LTD (“OVT”) as a wholly-owned subsidiary, which in turn a sub-subsidiary of the Company.
betul. 0.84 betul betul sangat susah patah. tapi, bagus, sebab yang susah patah, kalau patah mesti pecut kao kao. sabar. masa ini masa sikit sikit beli
wow, four banks offer the loan... confidence... this should be a very nice gem to hold..... hopefully we all will be like john - huat88... :-) thanks john for sharing the piece of news.
Long time no come here already, how is everyone? Here not as popular like few weeks ago already.. Guess the strong 0.84 resistance already flushed out most of the speculators.
Zoom I'm still here, don't worry.. im with you till 2020.. hopefully.
added a bit at 80.5sen, after the announcement of private placement (up to RM80m) to purchase brownfield towers in Vietnam as well as obtaining loan of USD40.2m from Myanmar. Even though we pay about 80sen, about 40sen are liquid assets (net cash + debtors).
OCK is gradually transforming into a telco tower biz, with strong (EBITDA > 65%) and sustainable (>10 years) cash flow due to locked in contract for 22 years (12+5+5) and possible upside on tenancy ratio.
"A big question for minority shareholders is probably whether the anticipated robust earnings growth will offset the impact of the dilution." (last sentence from The Edge Issue 1118, July 11-17 of 2016)
Let us answer this big question (that The Edge or the analysts raised):
1. It is pretty simple, Myanmar build and lease back project, average project payback period is 6.5 years.
2. Hence, the EV/EBITDA = 6.5X
3. Assuming all OCK warrants are converted, cash raised is RM187m (246m warrants x 71 sen exercise price). Therefore, the EV/EBITDA is 6.5X.
4. The Indonesia listed telco towers provide EV/EBITDA is 12-18x.
5. A very rough comparison is, there is upside to the 6.5x to at least close to 12x, if we were to compared with Indonesia (since there is no listed Malaysia telco tower yet).
6. So, the big question, is after all not that big. The earnings growth (with higher tenancy ratio), will definitely offset the impact of the dilution. Even if there is no growth, the sustainable cash flow, and low EV/EBITDA, there are very good potential upside if the warrants are converted.
7. The risk of execution in Myanmar was also mitigated after OCK had built about 50 towers and is accelerating it.
8. Time for RERATING? Have to wait for the sifu of i3 to press the button, like Bornoil.
1. The first 920 towers funding is in place, rights issue (RM132m) plus loan (RM160m).
2. As for the remaining 2,000 towers to be built in 4 years, it is about RM600m (or RM150m p.a.)
3. Assume 40:60, equity debt ratio, it need to raise RM60m equity and RM90m loan p.a. in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
4. The RM60m equity each year, can come from:
(a) Trade debtors less trade creditors @ 31 March 2016 is about RM120m.
(b) Once the 920towers completed, it will bring in EBITDA of about RM35-40m each year.
(c) The major shareholders (also major warrant holders, say 40%), will want to maintain its shareholdings, hence, likely to exercise its 40% warrants. 246m warrants x 40% x 71 sen = RM70m.
(d) Additional cash flow can come from completed 500 towers in 2017, 18, 19, 2020, which is about RM15m p.a.
Hope that answer your question. Actually you can call up the CFO of the company to ask, I am only speculating, or rather guessing. And, likely the new CFO will use my "guessing" to answer your question. Try it, and let me know.
the management has highlighted two major challenges in its Myanmar’s operations:
1.(i) Transportation. As Myanmar is in the transition period in opening up its economy to the world, the Port of Yangon serves as the busiest location for trading activities for the country. The congestion in containers terminal space, owing to the large import quantities of construction materials to cater for numerous infrastructure projects, has led to slowdown in handling and clearance processes. Consequently, raw materials will take approximately 2-3 weeks for the delivery to the sites.
(ii) Weather. The monsoon season typically begins from July until September. Heavy rainfall could wash away the soil which serves as a foundation for the construction of the tower. The frequent rain could also cause metal structures to rust.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
masinnya
95 posts
Posted by masinnya > 2016-06-16 10:01 | Report Abuse
All..!!!!! Better sell now!!!!!.. Kana is waiting to buy.... In fact I am also waiting to buy.... Ha.. Ha .. Ha... I FEEL GOOD!!!!!