ASTRO stock price crashed after 15 Dec after Quarterly announcement. It reflects the huge Finance cost arising from the permanent long term borrowing - USD loans increased by USD1 billion, attracting perennial high interest costs. Quarterly earnings fell from 106 sen last year in Qtr ending 10/21 down to 6 sen in Qtr ending 10/22. Future earnings could end up at single digit. No surprise because same time last year, Finance cost was only 27million, a year later 142 million per quarter. ASTRO is basically now bleeding in Finance cost every quarter by over 100 million, or nearly 500 million per year. Without earnings, without revenue growth, expect dividends to be cut. The Dividend yield will no longer be 10% for next 10 years. More like dividend trap.
A year ago, broker house price targets were around RM1.50 or so. Today, the same broker house price targets are like 80 sen or halved. Moral of the story - broker houses cannot tell the future better than you or me. Most people saw the long term decline
HLIB projected dividend yield of 10% is dreaming. There's no way 2023 or 2024 dividends is going to be 6 sen. Already YTD from last 3 quarters is only 3 sen and declining. It will be lucky if next quarter declares 0.75 sen. With downside price bias as it keeps reporting higher borrowing costs. Analysts are usually slow to adjust for stocks like this. 50 sen is very possible price target.
Funny thing is same time last year, dividend yield was also very high. 31/1/22 full 12m dividend is 6.75 sen. Now, 31/1/23 12m dividend is looking more like 3.75 sen. So, back then, dividend yield is high, but problem is price halved, so, when dividend halved, dividend yield still high but already lost 50% in capital loss.
Buying when dividend yield is high must be careful. The only way to protect oneself is don't buy too much and stop buying when wrong. Until you can see a positive catalyst in advance of the market. Not dreams or hope, but one that will bring in higher earnings. Very hard to do.
Astro revenue is like 4 billion a year. Losing 2% revenue each year is peanuts, when that's only 80 million and when profit margin is like 10%, that's only 8 million earnings loss a year.
That Finance cost in 1 quarter spiked up 100+ million.
Basically, Astro gambled in huge borrowings. Now, it's stuck and has to pay the price.
So, all those brokers a few months back that says "Astro business model remains intact long term" failed to note the huge borrowings and the huge permanent negative impact on earnings arising from interest costs. Interest costs is real. It's a real drag and can bring business down to become insolvent if cannot pay. Banks wants their loans back regardless, even if it means dragging Astro to bankruptcy court in next few years if Astro cannot pay.
Astro can try to beautify its books for a while. Make it look like it gets its books in order for 1, 2 or even 3 quarters. But without genuine business improvement, that price spike is just going to get sold down again to make new lows.
If you keep selling at price spikes, you have an easy win with Astro.
Astro's last quarterly earnings is so sad at 0.1 sen. Even if it earns 1 sen next year, the P/E at 50 sen is like 50 times. Due to high borrowing costs, and mistakes in hedging, 50 sen is too high a price to pay if you are a long term investor who plans to hold the stocks for several years as price can expect to keep going down long term, even with short term spikes up.
KUALA LUMPUR (March 3): Three men have been fined a total of RM38,500 by the Magistrate’s Court in Melaka for selling TV boxes preloaded with unauthorised content, said Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd.
It said the trio were arrested for their involvement in the sale of illegal streaming devices (ISDs) when a police cybercrime investigation team conducted raids at several outlets in Tesco Bandaraya Melaka on Oct 25, 2021.
Lee Hock Chuan, 20, How Jun Tian, 21, and Ong Tuck Keong, 30, pleaded guilty on Thursday (March 2) to the charges against them under the Copyright Act 1987 and other laws, said Astro in a statement on Friday.
Lee was found in possession of nine TV boxes, of which one was pre-loaded with unauthorised Astro content, while How was found in possession of 23 TV boxes, of which three were pre-loaded with unauthorised Astro content.
Astro, in the statement, noted that the Copyright (Amendment) Act 2022 was gazetted in February 2022. Enforcement of the law was implemented by the Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Ministry on March 18, 2022.
The key impact of the amendment is the criminalisation of the sale of ISDs and associated software applications that allow unauthorised access to copyrighted content. Anyone found guilty can be fined up to RM200,000, imprisoned for up to 20 years, or both.
The amendments to the Copyright Act followed the declaration by the Intellectual Property High Court in Kuala Lumpur in May 2021 that the sale, offer for sale, distribution and/or supply of ISDs that can provide unauthorised access to copyrighted works, constitutes copyright infringement under the Copyright Act 1987.
Astro operating cashflows are very strong at over RM1.0 billion every year, capex for 2023 should be lower as there will be no major sports events this year hence content costs should be lower by at least RM200m
Privatisation cannot be discounted as Ananda would need to fork out some RM2.1 billion to buy out the remaining shares not owned by him, and would be entitled to 100% of Astro strong cashflows every year. He may then choose to re-list it few years later once Astro manages to stop the slide in subscribers
Steeply oversold. Valuations are undemanding at 6.9x FY1/24 P/E with superb DY of 10%, and an eventual recovery in its subscription and advertising revenue would signal an inflection point which could result in a re-rating catalyst for Astro - HLIB Feb 10, 2023
3 weeks ago
Astro rebounded strongly adding 12 cts to close @ 0.73 on March 8, 2023
if the current business is good...do you think the big share holder will privatize it? if the business downtrend, do you buyer will pay high price to buy?
After spreading fake wind, sharks will go hiding. Same every time.
Astro is still lacking 4K content although with Ultra Box (sounds like UHD or 4K). Only 1 or 2 sport channel has 4K. Even YouTube is flooded with 4K capable videos. Astro still needs capital to buy more 4K content (capital insurance from shareholders) before taking themselves private (stop sharing profit).
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
speakup
27,045 posts
Posted by speakup > 2023-02-19 22:14 | Report Abuse
astro is a Juara Kampong, slowly being killed by a Juara Dunia netflix & hotstar