Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:52 | Report Abuse

foreign fund can kill greece drop 12% in a day. but no matter how they try in bursa, the max they get, 42pts, 2.2% from 1800 level.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-12-12 20:54 | Report Abuse

EPF is only interested to top up more in Tenaga, Axiata, IHH, TM, SKPetrol, Misc, Ioicorp & UMW in the past one month.

Posted by flytothemoon > 2014-12-12 20:57 | Report Abuse

optimuss, do you think those ppl have swallowed the money will take out to save malaysia?

Posted by saddiqsepakraga > 2014-12-12 20:57 | Report Abuse

wow....optimuss is full of energy today....impressive..!! Keep it up mate!!

Posted by flytothemoon > 2014-12-12 20:59 | Report Abuse

if those ppl really care bout malaysia, ringgit malaysia will never face huge drop like this, when bad thing happening, they are the gang who run the first

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:59 | Report Abuse

Posted by flytothemoon > Dec 12, 2014 08:57 PM | Report Abuse

optimuss, do you think those ppl have swallowed the money will take out to save malaysia?



they r not saving malaysia, u got it wrong, they are saving the govt. as long as they keep the govt afloat, endless opportunities to make more, dont u agree?

Posted by flytothemoon > 2014-12-12 21:02 | Report Abuse

aha, as far as i concerned, BN is trying to do all the things to grab the last money from malaysia, they will leave happily when malaysia having huge debt

Posted by Up_down > 2014-12-12 21:02 | Report Abuse

Optimuss. I am interested to see how our KLCI index counters perform after announcing quarterly earnings in the next 6 months. I believe that foreign funds are rational in making their investment decisions. They should have enough resources to do plenty of research to minimise systematic risks.

Posted by flytothemoon > 2014-12-12 21:02 | Report Abuse

1MDB will surely be the biggest scandal in malaysia sooner

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:04 | Report Abuse

updown. the foreign fund in malaysia is very small %.

small until it is considered irelevance, the big problem here is average malaysian dont hold stocks. no local participation.

only govt vs foreign fund vs listed company owners.

Posted by flytothemoon > 2014-12-12 21:07 | Report Abuse

whatever la, optimuss, time will tell everything, I agreed bursa malaysia is being manipulated well by the local fund for so long, but my sense tell me this time is much different with the previous crisis. Without petrol, malaysia is nothing at all, worse than thailand, as malaysia is well known in create stupid but exporting talent to other country.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-12-12 21:10 | Report Abuse

Optimuss. I understand Foreign funds is not big enough but they are able to create sell down crashing confidence of the other investors. They would probably work together with rating agency to make a havoc to the market.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:14 | Report Abuse

yes, very possible would crash. no matter what the govt do, i m just saying its not easy.

why u ppls keep thinking i said bursa wont crash? it is already crashed on many stocks, only klci not yet crashed.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-12-12 21:14 | Report Abuse

Without the support of crude oil, CPO and timber Msia has nothing to shout about.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 21:14 | Report Abuse

Posted by optimuss > Dec 12, 2014 08:49 PM | Report Abuse

yes foreigner want to kill klci .

obvious on the closing part.

but to sell down an index, u need to have stock to throw. right?

==============================

optimus, you asked "you need to have stocks to throw, right ?"

let me answer your question.

Let's look at HL Bank at closing (one of the KLCI component)

buyers :-
RM14.12 (28,900 shares)
RM14.08 (84,400 shares)
RM14.06 (49,700 shares)
RM14.04 (20,700 shares)
RM14.02 (2,000 shares)

sellers :-
RM14.14 (525,200 shares)
RM14.18 (47,100 shares)
RM14.26 (1,000 shares)
RM14.28 (2,200 shares)
RM14.30 (44,100 shares)

if you add up the buyers, total queuing to buy is 175,700 shares (until RM14.02)

all the seller needs to do is to grab the 525,200 shares available for sale at RM14.14 and then dump all the way to RM14.02 (and still have 339,500 shares left)

So that answer your question "where are they going to get the shares to sell ?"

as economic fundamentals deteriorated (including a potential rating downgrade by international agencies), there will be many funds queueing up to sell. That will provide the short seller plenty of bullets to grab and fire

That is why I said after Is studied the 30 component stocks, I am convinced that the KLCI can be broken at the back

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:20 | Report Abuse

icon, yes i agreed it can be broken. i only said not easy to break. i didnt say impossible to break.

hlbank close +2cent?

btw. its now running on the fear of oil price drop further. if oil price stabilize at 55 and moving 55-60, u still think the klci will keep dropping? to drop further it needed a very strong catalyst to kill 1700. so far dont see any yet. yes the rating agency thing. but i doubt they will do it so fast as oil only recently drop.

maybe by the time they wanted to downgrade oil already recovered?
they need strong paper work to downgrade a country, and its not a simple decision like sell oil price drop then downgrade malaysia


if they do that, they would have to downgrade, argentina n russia first, then all saudi, then europe oil producing country like normay and britain. so many to downgrade.

Posted by murali > 2014-12-12 21:21 | Report Abuse

Klci is abt 10% off its peak,but lots of counters r significant lower from their peaks

Posted by murali > 2014-12-12 21:21 | Report Abuse

Oil n gas counters are easily 50% off their peaks

Posted by Up_down > 2014-12-12 21:24 | Report Abuse

Funds have been manipulating KLCI so that they are able to sell second liners at higher prices.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 21:25 | Report Abuse

Optimus i hope you are right about the robustness of Malaysia's fundamentals. After all, I am long at equity (backed by 75% cash holding, and the HG). I don't need HG to make money for me. It is for hedging. If Malaysia escape this round unscathed, I am the happiest person in the world as I can resume my business of making money : )

No problem

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:30 | Report Abuse

i know a lot of ppls has been collecting oil n gas stock over the last few years and seeing good paper profit and feelign very safe and rock solid..

feel bad for those ppls. actually, bursa is not a place for anyone to be serious. its just a casino. a bad casino.

real investor should only buy wallstreet as investment. big name like yahoo microsoft fb alibaba etc. even ford

i have not seen anyone still in profit as of today, 2 weeks ago an old malaysian fren of mine a typical investor, after holding bursa diversify good stock for 10yrs, still making losses. and wanted to clear everything and ask for my opinion. it happen when china ann stimulus, so i ask him better to hold, since hold for so many years.

who knows the mkt start melting like shit. u see. real investor also die.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:32 | Report Abuse

icon, how many times we all think this country is gonna die? countless. just as we all feel very very hopeless, it spring up.

dont be too pessimistic. if u 75% cash . my advise to u, is to bring your wife and children go out celebrate, so many opportunities for you.

Posted by murali > 2014-12-12 21:35 | Report Abuse

Looks like fear has conquered most of us here.....I like it

Posted by murali > 2014-12-12 21:36 | Report Abuse

Unless its like 1998, then it would be very painful....hope that it will be like 2008....short n fast

Posted by murali > 2014-12-12 21:38 | Report Abuse

I still could recall even glove n plantation counters dropped so badly in 2008....

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 21:38 | Report Abuse

A lot of forum members had spoken about why oil price kept dropping, as though there is somebody behind the scene pulling strings (including you, Mr Optimus)

I have a different way of looking at things :-

The oilmen drilled a hole on the ground and oil gushed out. Prices happened to drop (yes, somebody is engineering that part, the Saudis). But the oilmen cannot just switch off the tap. According to what I read, once you stop the flow, you will lose the well forever.

So the oilmen has no choice but to let the oil keep gushing.

The next step is to store the oil. But according to what I read, there is no such thing as Big Storage. They only have (let's say) few days storage capacity.

So what do they do ? They have no choice but to click the sell button (just like what you and I do with stocks)

It is not that they are pessimistic. It is just physical reality ! They have to sell otherwise the oil tank will overflow !!

So if you ask me whether oil will stabilize at 55 to 60, my answer is I don't know.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:39 | Report Abuse

icon, real hedging u better use future. to deal with your margin call worries.

for 1 contract, instead of paying 4000 as margin, u pay more, like 6000, .

so if u short futures now feb expiry. if u short it at 1720, they will only disturb u if ci shot up to 1880.


by which time u ask them to square off and dont bother to top up margin.
as your stock would have perform very well.

however, if ci keep dropping from 1720 to whatever level, your margin increase automatically, u can then place another contract to short at 1690, 1660 1600 for example, all without putting extra margin bcos the paper gain allows u to have more exposure.

Posted by murali > 2014-12-12 21:39 | Report Abuse

When CPO was at 1300+pmt lots of master fore casted rm800pmt by 2009

Posted by Up_down > 2014-12-12 21:40 | Report Abuse

Optimuss. Don't be pessimistic la. You know Chinese word of " crisis ".

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:41 | Report Abuse

imagine u build up the shorting along the way and klci melt to 1300. how much more u could made? a few hundred % if not thousand, then u use that money to buy all your existing stock holding at low price. when mkt rebound, instead of having 500 lot of gob and gadang at high cost u have 5000 each at very low average.

without u putting up extra money. the futures industry paid for it.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 21:42 | Report Abuse

Exactly ! That is the beauty of it ! That is why I keep saying there is no need to hedge 100%.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:44 | Report Abuse

yes u cannot stop the flow. and u have to sell to the mkt price.
who have say to the mkt price? the price leader is saudi. due to their size.

oilman has no storage la, very costly.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:48 | Report Abuse

i donno how low oil can go down, but i do know there must be a technical rebound before it find its bottom..


oil price dont just drop from 100 straight down to 40 or 30 whatever target expert predict. it has to stop along the downwave, to have a technical rebound to catch shortist.


go study how gold price melt all the way from 1900 to 1100 range and see how their technical rebound kill.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:51 | Report Abuse

looking at 15% technical rebound. say if it happen at 55, means will bounce to 63. if happen at 58, mean will bounce to 66 etc.


dont u think if that happen klci and stocks will have a big push up like wed up 28pts and everything green.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 21:55 | Report Abuse

the lower oil price go, the higher chance for a technical rebound. therefore i m cautious of shorting klci with any instrument. until clearer sign emerge.

for today hg, hb, failed to closed at their last peak level despite klci closed at the lowest. that is a red flag.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 22:01 | Report Abuse

Like I said, I am happy if KLCI is up 28 pts on Monday

I still have exposure to stocks. Who will complain if index is up (by 28 points) ?

: )

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 22:03 | Report Abuse

Icon. How come pm cum finance minister no say thing???

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 22:05 | Report Abuse

I also suspecious they let klci drop. Wait him say thing. Then push to 1800 showing the world his speech so powerful. This tactic their classic la.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 22:07 | Report Abuse

In 1999 ci drop tp 260 from 1200. Dr m so angry. Give instruction to all fund mgr. Must push to 880 in 1 mth. I also heard this. Despite very skeptical. They did it.

Posted by flytothemoon > 2014-12-12 22:11 | Report Abuse

oh yea, baby, crude oil broke new low

Posted by little_snake > 2014-12-12 22:14 | Report Abuse

i think ah jib will only mad if ci fall below 1800...

Posted by region > 2014-12-12 22:19 | Report Abuse

i agree on rebound but not now..monday will be red as long as oil keep falling...if u want rebound better pray oil upward...today already show that even all market green on usa result still the same as long as oil drop nothing can show upward. Now let us see the oil current price drop bellow 59 already. seem downward for all market is still the same and the presure on Europe election now pushing euro market today end up so red. If today oil can keep downward to 58 per barrel and Dj end up falling to bottom...then even who ever say rebound is impossible unless oil can upward back but seem currently not the time. :Like optimuss say before dont against the trend...(Warren Buffet). Gov try to tank the market but still investor are losing confident....like Optimuss say for himself, he will already keep his cash rather to hold share until thing clear ...am i right? So lets us see that if this concept implement on the investor mind, if all investor thinking the same thing and sell out share waiting for right time...then what will happen? rebound? is only end up downward. rebound imposible since oil market already hammer down all investor confidence unless oil rebound...hahahah Monday will be another big drop Enjoy the show hahaha

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 22:23 | Report Abuse

Optimus never participate in occupied central kah ? Thought he is hongkie ?

Posted by region > 2014-12-12 22:24 | Report Abuse

Wohoo oil keep falling...whahaha...ppl talk east talk west about rebound? hahha end up all red today...monday should another drop LOL

Posted by gohlai > 2014-12-12 22:27 | Report Abuse

this structured warrant has no value...bursa is a casino...this structured warrant already have many people on the bandwagon...come monday...the Investment Bank that had issued this warrant will support the index link counter causing a crash to this warrant...then many who purchased above 0.260 will die standing.....and next another IB will start issuing another better warrant...

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 22:30 | Report Abuse

Nah, keep track of oil price

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Posted by gohlai > 2014-12-12 22:34 | Report Abuse

many people predicting the that KLCI will drop because oil price dropped....then the Investment Bank (Banker) go support the index linked counters on monday that are not oil n gas related....manipulating it...then they sapu all the fishes....100% gain for them...advanced gambling

Posted by gohlai > 2014-12-12 22:35 | Report Abuse

this trap is like how Investment Banks keep issuing unrealistic high target price for stocks...

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 22:35 | Report Abuse

short term oil fluctuation would not kill a country oil n gas biz. it so easy kill, saudi and russia oil biz all game over in 2008 liao.

as long as oil rebound within a year. all big oil n gas biz only suffer flu. not dengi.

now the mkt has successfully conditioned everyone to think, oil price=klci
oil up = klci up
oil drop =klci drop.


is it really as simple

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 22:39 | Report Abuse

take example of Dialog. it was hit down from 1.48 to 1.19 on 1st dec, when oil price is still 68. now oil price at 59 today, it was traded at 1.44 in the morning.

oil 68= dialog 1.19, oil 59= dialog 1.44

does oil really affect stock price? or is it intentionally hit down the margin forceselling and some one is collecting cheap?

i see dialog collecting everyday since 1st dec.