Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-12-12 18:58 | Report Abuse

ic, thanks icon8888. Anyway, both hb and future is just like gamble for me.Better stay away from them.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:03 | Report Abuse

icon example is correct 50% half true.

for futures, they will only do margin call when ci fluctuate 100pts. that your margin.

if u no money to top up, they will sell your contract. and u loss rm 5000 margin and sleep peacefully and fight another day.

in HB, say now is 20.5c ci 1733, when ci go down to 1700, hb maybe 23c, so u add more, bcos u sit on profit and mkt even more bearish, like maunkulopdollah, he added on his position 2 days ago accordin to him.

so using example of icon, govt found bigger oil than arab nation, klci wont go sky rocket to 3000 in 1 days, it will move up steadily.

mr Maunkulopdollh, Mr. M. will then see his HB drop to 10c, say ci at 1780, so since its half price ady, he average down. bought more.

when ci go above 18oo, his hb drop to 3c, he average more (thinking its like stock), so all his money in HB, so ci go 1900. his hb is worth 0c, he can keep till expiry, still zero cent.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:04 | Report Abuse

icon, i m a licensed futures trader.

Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-12-12 19:07 | Report Abuse

hmmmm....so ..must keep in mind..hb is not stock, never play it like play stock

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:09 | Report Abuse

dealing straight with futures, means when the mkt reverse from bear to bull

your 10 contract short position can be square off and buy into long position.


can u do that with hb? yes there r call-warrant in klci, heaps, go find out their premium? fbmklci-co strike level 1780, now selling to u at 34c.

all the 34c are premium, 0 intrinsic value, its there bcos nobody can sell it down. its all control.

in futures is a level playing field, u trade together with orang putih and they make sure the premium are not crazy for no reason.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:16 | Report Abuse

futures are settled every month end, so there is no excuse to abuse the premium mark to market.

in put warrant, the settlement date is the expiry date, 6mth to 12 mth away. they can do anything they want with the premium, they can discount it even..

ie. klci 1733, intrinsic value 22c for hb. they can park buyer at 20c. if they want, or 15c. so its nothing illegal as they control the game.

in futures, any mispricing will immdiately checked n balanced by the trader. arbitrage opportunities exist, ie. u can sell dec contract and buy jan contract if the premium mismatch. or sell dec buy mar contract. or v.v. or buy jan contract but sell feb contract.

Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-12-12 19:17 | Report Abuse

seem like this kind of put warrant can easily cheat people who dont know about future and play it as stock like me......

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:19 | Report Abuse

yes it is, very easy to drawn into it. this product is a joke to a futures exchanged. their target client is the layman who donno anything abt futures . since new toy in town, sure very laku.

Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-12-12 19:20 | Report Abuse

should means trap, not cheat..

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:24 | Report Abuse

like any call warrants. whenever there is a few days of top volume. it dies off. u dont find buyer anymore, bcos they distribute it asap..

u think the owner of call/put warrant is collecting? thats a joke, they can issue hb hc hd etc until no buyer.

the objective is to clear the warrant asap with profit. finish the project then they move on to another.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:27 | Report Abuse

from my experience, after all ikan bilis excited about an IB warrant. it dies off. volume dissappear, premium dissappeared.


then new call warrant of same nature issue by same bank or different bank.

raise your hand how many made money from call warrant before? less than 1%. even if u made now, soon u will give back.

say new put warrant appear. they only goreng the new put warrant and your warrant bcome orphan. when its orphan, zero premium at all. also very little buyer.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 19:30 | Report Abuse

tkteoh. HB is not meant for you to hold naked. That will be gambling, not investing.

I bought HB to hedge my equity portfolio. For example, if KLCI dropped 500 points, I think my stocks will suffer at least 30% loss. But my HB will make money for me. It might not fully cover my losses. But it sure does help.

When I buy HB, I also psychologically prepare myself to lose the entire value by expiry. I am ok with that, it is like me buying an insurance. If HB becomes zero value, that must be because the stock market is doing well. Than I would be enjoying my portfolio capital gain. No complain if that happen (can only be happy)

Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-12-12 19:33 | Report Abuse

Issue Size: 50,000,000
Issuer: CIMB Bank Berhad

Do this mean Cimb holds 50 millions unit of hb in hand, then distribute them to us through this few days of large volume, after it is listed?

It is not like stock ipo that sold the 50millions to subscribers first before listing?

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:34 | Report Abuse

only if what u have is indexed link..

if u think hb can hedge your 2rd 3rd liners. u r mistaken.

ci can go up doesnt mean gob gadang the like can go up.


its not a hedging at all. the hedging only work on big stock that u hold, ie. Tm, tenaga. genting, sime.

so simple u donno meh.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:35 | Report Abuse

Posted by tkteoh80 > Dec 12, 2014 07:33 PM | Report Abuse

Issue Size: 50,000,000
Issuer: CIMB Bank Berhad

Do this mean Cimb holds 50 millions unit of hb in hand, then distribute them to us through this few days of large volume, after it is listed?

It is not like stock ipo that sold the 50millions to subscribers first before listing?



all these are created to distribute, its not ipo. they just need to hedge the position when the need arises.. and they can issue another 50million warrant, no nid your approval, and list it silently, u dont even know unless u check the ann.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 19:38 | Report Abuse

tkteoh, CIMB created the instrument and sold to investing public (10 sen ? 15 sen ? I can't remember). When they sell the HB to you, they at the same time will make arrangement to protect themselves (probably through shorting the future). Come HB expiry, if the KLCI indeed dropped by a lot, CIMB will pay HB holders. But at the same time, they will close their future position to lock in their profit. Basically, they just take the profit (from shorting the future) and pay you. They themselves don't lose money.

On the other hand, if upon issuance of the HB, KLCI shoots up. By expiry, HB will become zero value. CIMB will make money from the proceeds they gathered by selling the HB

That is how it works

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:40 | Report Abuse

in theory la. what u said from the book la, not the inside working.


did they even sell to u? they park the buyer and seller to induce u into it.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:42 | Report Abuse

HB, HG. when u have HG come out, means HB already distributed. when u have next put warrant out, means HG also distributed.


why need to hedge? silly. all is selling at high premium to market fool. they will only hedge when it reach a certain threshold.

Posted by tkteoh80 > 2014-12-12 19:43 | Report Abuse

icon8888 , optimus, thanks for the explanation.haha, it becomes more complicated , need time to digest. :)

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:44 | Report Abuse

so many call warrant from birth time till expiry also no volume, so mr smart, how do u explain? they really go hedge the position?

so both way they also die la, i believe u have some math knowledge. go figure how they can make money if they hedge it. and no taker in the warrant.

your simpplistic theory that bcos they issue 50k put warrant they go n hedge in futures for equivalent lot, is so so so....

Posted by Tonto > 2014-12-12 19:45 | Report Abuse

optimuss, what is yr advice now...? what sector to monitor for next upleg?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 19:47 | Report Abuse

thanks for your input Optimus. I always treat you as a friend, so no flaming (by me, at least). We just exchange view.

You are right, HB is tied to the KLCI and might not have strong correlation with GOB and Gadang. I am ok with that. I am not afraid of KLCI dropping 300 points (and stabilise there). For me, that kind of scenario is considered "correction", not melt down. In a correction scenario, the PLCs will still be able to function (and won't go into financial distress). So I don't actually need to worry about "losing" in GOB or Gadang (I am long term investor and believe they will ultimately recover).

I bought HB to guard against scenario like 1997 whereby there is massive retrenchment, liquidity crunch, bankruptcies, etc.

When equity market downturn spilled over into real life, nobody will be able to manipulate the KLCI anymore (by artificially supporting it, which is the case in recent few weeks). That is when HB will really shine and serve its purpose for me.

I experienced 1997 before, so I know what I am doing and what to expect

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:48 | Report Abuse

now u buy stock u die, short klci u die, long klci u die. and this

if u have a PBT license, u make money la, everymorning just short the most active stock and buy back before closing.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:49 | Report Abuse

ok icon, peace

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 19:52 | Report Abuse

by the way, I didn't buy HB, I bought HG. It has longer lifespan

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:54 | Report Abuse

yes hb only function in sudden meltdown. its hedging. but many here treat it as stock. even talk abt next week target.


icon what u did is right. in your situation.

thats bcos u r not thinking it will give u contra gain and u purely use it to hedge.

many others r not thinking the way u thhink, they think its a punting instrument, and it behave as one. today they see that ci drop 12 pts their baby not performing.

as u said, if ci drop a few hundred, it will shine. dropping 10pts everyday wont make much different to the hb hg.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 19:56 | Report Abuse

I am flattered. Optimus actually has some nice words to say

: )

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 19:56 | Report Abuse

hedging for real u must by hg. hb is too short duration. u may not see the impact unfold fully in next 6 mth. normally mkt melt towards year end in any crisis.

1999 asian
2008 suprime

all around 3q it start to blow

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:04 | Report Abuse

icon bro, some diff btw 1999 and now.

now our reserve is 10x stronger. company hedge their usd loan ie genting sime. and the world has discoverd a new antidote to depression. call QE.

ci is controlled by 30 counters, 80% govt owned. 20% private, but rely on govt.

in 1999 ci consist of 100 ind linked.

in 1999 foreigner can freely short ringgit in offshore, and naked short stocks then borrow from friends or banks. now they cant.

so these diff... actually cushion ci in many ways.


1999 situation? if that happen u probably make more money than u can ever imagine. how i wish it would happen again.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 20:10 | Report Abuse

i also notice the KLCI is cornered and manipulated (like what you said). But based on my experience, when things deteriorated to a level like 1997, nobody will be able to manipulate the index anymore. Just imagine, if Maybank reported RM1 billion losses because of bad loans related to Oil and Gas companies. No amount of money can sustain the KLCI. It will ultimately break

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:17 | Report Abuse

very true. but maybank will restructure their debt... so no bad loans will appear from oil n gas, and petronas has to find more jobs for skp and dialog etc to tie thru this period.

most oil n gas r owned by strong politician. big one will pull thru, and oil will recover to 80 give it few yrs.

its the average oil price that concern them. not a sudden few months low.

in 2008 suprime oil melt from 110 to 30 and recovered fully. the price leadership is always saudi, not so much of demand supply as they want u to believe. u mean suddenly our demand drop to half? as the oil price now is half price.

its all conspiracy. do u find yourself pumping half the petrol than last year?

Posted by Up_down > 2014-12-12 20:19 | Report Abuse

Optimuss. Don't be too optimistic over KLCI. There are many counters traded above PER 20 times even though its earnings trending downward consecutively in the past few quarters. In average, KLCI trades slightly above PER 16 times. If you take a full analysis of 30 counters, you may understand more of our situation. wakaka.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:22 | Report Abuse

this country is lucky it has ample oil to sell. whatever the mkt price. they have never complained..


remember in 1999 oil price drop to usd 10, did petronas complained?

in 2008, oil drop to 30, petronas also never complained, why this round big hoo haa?

all the cost of oil usd 30 la, 60 la all bullshit

its meant for new investment. the old oil well they just keep sucking the oil at almost usd 1 per barrel, +not inclusive of barrel cost i suppose.

u go ask spritzer, what is their cost of a bottle of mineral water 1 liter they sell for 2.80
they will tell u their cost is 2.00 and must pay transport and retailer profit.

thats bullshit. a liter of mineral water from spritzer only cost them 5c, being the cost of the plastic bottle.


this is not poultry biz where u have to grow the chicken or pig let them eat and grow then sell to mkt.

the world is cheating everybody.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:23 | Report Abuse

i m not optimistic on klci, i m only careful on december the window dressing month.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 20:25 | Report Abuse

Up_Down, do you have the KLCI component stocks ? I don't seem to be able to get from internet

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:30 | Report Abuse

price leadership of oil come solely from saudi.

if they want to sell at 80, it will be 80. if they want to sell at 30, it would be 30.

simple as that. yes there r many other producer, but they are not price setting. shale oil or whatever they have various cost, but nobody want to sell at cost, everyone want to sell at the highest possible, thats biz. and saudi is the king of price setting.

when oil is too over supply, for real, US will start having war in or around oil producing region, n u see oil price sky rocket, and everyone forget abt oversupply. they start to worry abt not enuf suppy.

the conspiracy of saudi want to kill shale oil is complete nonsense, saudi depends on US for their own safety and even supply of arms.

do u dare to kill your taiko who protect u? what a joke

the real objective is to kill putin. nothing more than that, and they need many excuses and stories to fly around to justify it.

once, and if, putin step down as no 1. oil price will sky rocket to usd 100 almost within a month.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 20:31 | Report Abuse

I found it (wikipedia)

1. AMMB Holdings
2. Astro Malaysia Holdings
3. Axiata Group
4. British American Tobacco (Malaysia)
5. CIMB Group Holdings
6. Digi.com
7. Felda Global Ventures Holdings
8. Genting
9. Genting Malaysia
10. Hong Leong Bank
11. Hong Leong Financial
12. IHH Healthcare
13. IOI
14. IOI Properties Group
15. Kuala Lumpur Kepong
16. Malayan Banking
17. Maxis
18. MISC
19. PETRONAS Chemicals Group
20. Petronas Dagangan
21. Petronas Gas
22. PPB Group
23. Public Bank
24. RHB Capital
25.SapuraKencana Petroleum
26. Sime Darby
27. Telekom Malaysia
28. Tenaga Nasional
29. UMW Holdings
30. YTL Corp

Posted by flytothemoon > 2014-12-12 20:31 | Report Abuse

optimuss, when you buy this share , you didn't bark like this, what happening to you??

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:34 | Report Abuse

icon, off hand i give u some

cimb, 7c is 1pt
pchem 7c is 1pt
ppb, 50c is 1pt
digi 7c is 1 pt
genm 9c is 1pt
hlbank 3c is 1pt
astro 11c is 1pt
sime 9c is 1pt
misc 13c is 1pt
skp 10c is 1 pt
petgs 30 is 1 pt
maxis 8c is 1pt
fgv 16c is 1 pt
maybank 6c is 1pt
ytl 5c is 1pt
axiata 7c is 1pt
bat, 10c is 2pt.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:36 | Report Abuse

why i buy there seems to be no support on govt on index, like they don wan to support. suddenly i saw them support. so i have to be careful. got it? learn the lesson from your Iris when i ask u to sell at 60c u keep scolding me.

Posted by flytothemoon > 2014-12-12 20:37 | Report Abuse

many bubbles going to burst in malaysia, without the support of petrol, 1MDB, high government servant salary , ptptn loan issue, east malaysia issue, housing debt bla bla bla, any issue here being triggered, klci will simply fall 100 points, and they are linked, chain effect somemore.....

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:39 | Report Abuse

who said govt without support of petrol? do u know how big is petronas? how much money petronas kept in new york? u hear also u faint...


and malaysia govt owned petronas. which govt own an oil major in asia? none.

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:41 | Report Abuse

have u seen petronas account? no, they only report to u the profit. what abt the unreported one? they will just paid govt more next year. despite they threaten to pay less on the excuse of lower oil price.

what they reported maybe just a fraction of what they earned.

Posted by murali > 2014-12-12 20:42 | Report Abuse

Suddenly optimuss can talk pro....very Impressive

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-12-12 20:42 | Report Abuse

optimus, after looking at the component stocks, I am convinced that KLCI can be "broken at the back"

as I mentioned earlier, I also noticed that KLCI is manipulated with a positive bias. Every time near closing, support will surface to push it up to narrow the losses. But I think this is because they haven't encountered serious challenger. If an international hedge fund wants to push down the index, I don't think it can be effectively defended against.

These two days I noticed the emergence of sell side manipulation. At about 4.55pm, there will be a sudden drop in index (yesterday dropped from 15 points to 20 points within split second, today from 8 points to 11 points)

I suspect some serious players had entered to challenge the "supporters". They probably has shorted the future and want to see KLCI going down. After all, whoever working in the direction of the trend will have advantage over those against it

Let's see how things will unfold next week

just my conspiracy theory (wishful thinking from a HG holder : )

Posted by F22Raptor > 2014-12-12 20:45 | Report Abuse

optimuss,why u know so much?R u CIA....or KGB.....wakakakaka.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-12-12 20:46 | Report Abuse

Icon8888. IOI property had been replaced by KLCC.

Posted by murali > 2014-12-12 20:47 | Report Abuse

Seriously how many foreign fund are in our equity market?only the big boys can create this kind of selling pressure......they are our EPF,pnb,tabung haji etc

Posted by murali > 2014-12-12 20:47 | Report Abuse

Up also them down also them

Posted by optimuss > 2014-12-12 20:49 | Report Abuse

yes foreigner want to kill klci .

obvious on the closing part.

but to sell down an index, u need to have stock to throw. right?
and unless the foreigner has deeper pocket than local fund like khazanah and epf. they r only wasting their time..

this country need a huge scandal or rating cut. to kill the index to below 1700.

remember prior to may 2013 election, it was so bearish that the govt will be gone, stock hit down, ci hit down. numerous time no matter how they kill the klci, it wont break below 1600.

that shows the power of the index defending team from govt fund.