Private equity magnate David Rubenstein, the founder of The Carlyle Group, made himself a billionaire by reading the markets. And he says the Fed will not raise interest rates this month.
Speaking on CNBC, Rubenstein argues that the Fed will wait until investors expect a hike before acting. As he put it:
“The Fed is really the central bank of the world. If the Fed raise rates a little bit, it will have an impact all over the world, particularly in emerging markets.
“I think the Fed is sensitive to that, and I think therefore the Fed is likely to wait for another month or two to get additional data and probably telegraph a little bit better than it has now that it’s about ready to do it at a particular time.”
looks like you guys here huat huat huat tomorrow. left me alone crying at the corner, holding PW toilet paper. congrats guys btw, i am happy for you guys.
Federal is not raising interest rates yet but Dow Jones zig-zag now between positive and negative showing weakness of the US and the world economy. Don't know to buy call or put warrants tomorrow or just sideline.
i can say... should be good for msia market, no matter short term or mid/long term. as this time the fed had make everyone believed it was going to raise the rate thus make the ff had packed the final hot money baggage and left msia already, putting msia at attractive price for forex, bond, stocks in asia. who don't want to invest here?
Dont be surprize end of day klci will turn negative.remember today is friday and most of traders take profit.Furthermore mkt have expected for no rate hike which reflected mkt rally last few days.my approach sell on news.i expect put warrants to go up today. Cheers
Yeah.no one is stopling you from buying puts. But just think about it.when you are saying hiking of rates,all ran and buy puts. Now the rate is not coming currently,u still buying puts. Might as well u close eyes and order puts from the starting? Hahaha..but nvm la,good for u,u can buy cheappppp puts.lol
The following are selected highlights of the press conference of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen after the central bank’s decision not to increase interest rates.
On whether the Fed could hike next month: “So as I’ve said before, every meeting is a live meeting where the committee can make a decision to move to change our target for the federal funds rate. That certainly includes October. As you know and I’ve stressed previously, were we to decide to do that, we would call a press briefing and you’ve participated in an exercise to make sure that you would know how to participate in that press briefing, should it happen.”
On what it would take for the Fed to hike: “To be clear, our decision will not hinge on any particular data release. Or on day-to-day movements in financial markets. Instead, the decision will depend on a wide range of economic and financial indicators. And our assessment of their cumulative implications for actual and expected progress towards our objectives.”
On why inflation is running under its 2% target: ”An important reason for that is that declines in import prices reflecting the appreciation of the dollar and declines in energy prices [that] are holding down inflation well below our target and well below core inflation. We expect those effects to be transitory and with well anchored inflation expectations we expect inflation to move back to 2%. Now in the intermeeting period, we have seen some further appreciation of the dollar and some further downward pressure on energy prices. And that creates a bit of further drag on inflation that I would view as transitory, as very likely to be transitory. So I continue and the committee continues to expect that inflation will move back to 2%. So this should be a small thing and in the meantime the labor market has continued to improve.”
On why markets have been volatile: “I think developments that we saw in financial markets in August in part reflected concerns that there was downside risk to Chinese economic performance and perhaps concerns about the gaps where policymakers were addressing those concerns, in addition we saw a very substantial downward pressure on oil prices in commodity markets. And those developments have had a significant impact on many emerging market economies that are important producers of commodities as well as more advanced countries including Canada which is an important trading partner of ours that’s been negatively affected by declining commodity prices, declining energy prices.”
On whether the Fed considered negative interest rates, as one participant called for: “So let me be clear that negative interest rates was not something that we considered very seriously at all today. It was not one of our main policy options.”
On whether the Fed has furthered income inequality with low interest rates: “The main thing that an accommodative monetary policy does is put people back to work. Since income inequality is surely exacerbated by having a high unemployment and a weak job market, that has the most profound negative effects on the most vulnerable individual. To me, putting people back to work and seeing a strengthening of the labor market that has a disproportionately favorable effect on vulnerable portions of our population, that’s not something that increases income inequality.”
I think opening will be strong, but ppl will start to take profit...so, KLSE expected to test 1700 but not sure can breach that bo...if can, then really salute najis RM20bil...He take our money, now its time to capitalize in whatever we can...
How many of u guys still holding put? I think someone is averaging down his put warrants right? forgot who is that...Its a dangerous game to play KLSE index now...
Alpha, sure bo u hentam HSI-CP that much. Its going to expire and liquidity might not be there....
I will only start collecting put when KLSE approaching 1800, I think the 20bil really got firepower... <1600 to 1681 in 1 week no problem...crashing thru all the strong resistance..
Actually all these discussions on put and call are not so relevant anymore
Attention should be shifted to quality second liners
The Index doesn't need to go up by a lot, as long as it is stable, syndicate will start playing. The money is now there with quality and beaten down second liners
Icon, I don't think money at second liner...money is not in blue chips quite obviously
By the way, I agree with your strategy to hedge Put when KLSE is trading high. The question is how high is high? before yesterday, many analyst says 1660 is a strong resistance, but get brushed aside by the bull like a red cloth
Ya, I think fund manager is in big trouble if he is averaging down put warrants. AS I always say, the big mistakes that I make is to average down. It always whack me the most. So from now on, no more averaging down...and worst still, to do that with warrants.
average down is vry painful... kena few times in Kanger, Biohldg and vsolar, keep average down but the price also keep lower and no rebound. die straight straight~
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
yeekarwai88
3,967 posts
Posted by yeekarwai88 > 2015-09-17 19:45 | Report Abuse
Lol.
What kind of logic just consider as PRO or WEAK based on whether you know the seller and buyer records.