Source : Greatech Facebook We are glad to continuously be able to assist our community in a cause of goodwill at our recently concluded Greatech Giving Day. The event was graced by the honourable presence of YB Puan Chong Eng who is the Penang State Executive Councillor (EXCO) for Social Development. A combined total of RM 640,500 was contributed. The Penang Welfare Association for Mentally Retarded Children received a RM 200,000 donation from the Company, whilst 槟城大同华小 SJKC Tar Thong, Penang received RM 340,000 and RM 100,000 respectively from the Company and our Independent Non-Executive Chairman Ms Ooi Hooi Kiang. In addition to that, Greatech in collaboration with Gleneagles Hospital Penang also donated 50 computer sets to the Penang Chinese Girls’ High School.
What comes round, will goes round... whenever Greatec make some donations / contributions, Greatec shares always goes up to a new high again. Check back past history, then you will noticed the similarity. Gratitude ...
It's just a misunderstanding statements n misinterpreted that cause such a panic. Just look at all the true investors, then r all so calm n slowly collecting some pocket money...
Agree with JTShares. At least someone is doing homework here.
[Page 13 of 31st Dec 2020 results]: “As of 4 February 2021, the Group’s order book stood at RM351.20 million, which is expected to last until first half of 2022”.
Just my 2 cents, please do your own due diligence and assess your risk yourself.
Recent info/estimates gathered from IB research sources:
(a) Two battery pack assembly line orders from Lordstown at total c.RM200-250m. Equals to 57%-72% of orderbook number stated on 4 February 2021.
(b) IB research sources are estimating FY2021/22 revenue at c.RM510-520m/RM600-610m. This assumes Greatech will clinch more orders from Lordstown and other customers along the year which is very possible. Also assumes more Lordstown orders in FY2022.
(c) So far, cash collected from Lordstown c.RM80-90m. Equals to 34%-42% of Lordstown orders. It is said cash collection is on track. This is good news. But this can change if Lordstown decide not to honour the payments. Put yourself in Lordstown shoes, if the allegations are true, will you be honoring your payments? Or get drawn out into a long legal battle where the results can take many years? If allegations are false, then it is good news.
Scenario 1 – Allegations are false. Nothing changes in Greatech’s 2021/22 outlook.
Scenario 2 – Allegations proven true. Lordstown halt payments and keep their cash for their legal battles. From Greatech’s perspective, this could mean c.RM120-160m of remaining orders whereby cash may be hard to collect. This is as good as lost business, equals to 34%-46% of orderbook RM351.20m. If calculated as percentage of IB research revenue estimates in FY2021, equals to 24%-31% of FY2021 estimated revenue potentially being cut. FY2022 revenue estimates will also be cut significantly if Lordstown orders are already stopping in FY2021. If these are the potential revenue estimates being cut, then the earnings estimates being cut could be equally as large. Those buying at c. 40x forward PE are in fact buying at higher forward PE if 2021/22 earnings estimates are to be cut.
Scenario 3 – Allegations proven true. Greatech manages to secure the pending cash payments. Greatech manages to find another customer to replace Lordstown. This is possible. Long-term outlook should remain unchanged, although there will certainly be some lack of order visibility in the short-term.
Share price has come down c.23% from peak RM6.40 to now RM4.90. The earlier decline in technology shares is attributed to the increasing 10 yield US yields. The higher risk-free rate, the higher the discount rate, the lower valuation of future free cash flow, the lower the fair value of stocks.
Before the Lordstown news, Greatech shares at RM 5.63 (12th March 2021). Now at RM4.90. The decline is only c.13%. This is considered a small decline compared to the potential cut of 34-46% in orderbook and potential cut of 24-31% of revenue and earnings estimates in Scenario 2.
There are a few scenarios that can happen. Please assess the risk and do your own due diligence.
It is about the future revenue, profits and free cash flow per share that determines the value of a stock.
Tq Greateah. Previously bought at 4.29. Sold n made some profit. Done many rounds, even when at 0.80, 1.05, 1.07, 1.24, 1.38, 2.05, 2.99, 3.50 & finally 4.29.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Jeju88
425 posts
Posted by Jeju88 > 2021-03-16 09:45 | Report Abuse
Rebound to 4.96.