Posted by Ravi Kumar > 2014-04-20 14:57 | Report Abuse

Raider, welcome to i3investor. I too decide to leave investlah. Better feedback here :)

Posted by rchi > 2014-04-20 14:59 | Report Abuse

ok raider,noted...your take is it's a momentum stock.Once the hype is over,it's anybody's guess.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 14:59 | Report Abuse

Yes Ravi my friend....nice to hear from u....!!

Posted by TKSB > 2014-04-20 15:00 | Report Abuse

Sappok!

Posted by avenger88 > 2014-04-20 15:01 | Report Abuse

Welcome raider....

Posted by rchi > 2014-04-20 15:06 | Report Abuse

raider,note that alcom is in your radar,does it has anything to do with world aluminium prices rising,and do you think the rise of aluminium prices can be sustained?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 15:15 | Report Abuse

Alcom own by the 2nd largest aluminum company in the world novalieus..!!
To set up a similar business like alcom today....u need twice the monies(it was set up 30 yrs ago)....or Rm 2.60 per share.

The current NTA of Alcom is Rm 1.35 per share of this is net cash Rm 0.35 per share....!!

Operationally it is not doing well....that's why share price is depressed, but thing is slowly turning around.

Most important it got margin of safety mah....!!

if want to goring...why not goring something with value ?

Posted by rchi > 2014-04-20 15:19 | Report Abuse

haha,i see...tq raider.Btw i m not going to goreng it,no worries.Have a nice day.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 16:06 | Report Abuse

UNDERSTANDING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

RHB Research is maintaining its Buy call on Ahmad Zaki Resources Bhd (AZRB) with a fair value of RM1.47 after it won a suit over a contract dispute in Saudi Arabia and was awarded RM79.6mil.

The research house said on Tuesday that due to improved sentiment post the 13th General Election, it saw sustained interest in small-cap construction stocks.

“We also like Ahmad Zaki’s defensive non-construction businesses such as bunkering and plantations,” it said.

To recap, Paris-based International arbitrator, International Chamber of Commerce, ordered Alfaisal University/King Faisal Foundation to pay AZRB RM79.6mil over the latter’s claims in an arbitration case involving a construction contract for Phases 1 & 2 of Alfaisal University Campus in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
THE COURT ALREADY DECIDED IN FAVOR OF AZRB

RHB Research described the award as good news for AZRB as the company could now write back the entire amount as an exceptional gain, which will translate into 29 sen per share.

“When the contract ended in dispute in FY10, AZRB bit the bullet by making full provisions for additional costs incurred by the project amounting to RM93.6mil in its FY10 accounts. This resulted in a record net loss of RM61.6mil for that year.

“We maintain our estimates as we exclude one-off items in our forecasts and await full settlement of the award. Assuming the award is paid, the RM79.6mil cash inflow will significantly reduce AZRB’s net debt and gearing of RM109.5mil and 0.52 times respectively as at March 31, 2013 to RM29.9mil and 0.1 times,” said RHB Research.

The research house said it liked AZRB’s strong earnings visibility, backed by its RM2.2bil-strong outstanding construction orderbook as well as two lucrative concessions with a minimum project IRR of 8% in the RM413mil International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) campus in Kuantan now under construction, and the RM1.55bil East Klang Valley Expressway (EKVE), which is pending financial close.

“Upon financial close, the EKVE will generate about RM1.5bil worth of internal construction works for AZRB, as well as substantially boost.
its outstanding construction orderbook to RM3.7bil,” it said

BESIDE THE ABOVE AZRB HAS PLANTED 5000 HECTARES OF PALM PLANTATION..IT STILL HAS A BALANCE 20K HECTARES

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-04-20 16:08 | Report Abuse

Welome raider bro, your the expert

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 16:14 | Report Abuse

RAIDER ALSO LIKE AZRB....IT IS ONE OF THE LAGGARD STOCK IN RAIDER'S NAPSHOT 40 PORTFOLIO LOH....!!

WHAT IS SO GOOD OF AZRB ?

1) LARGE ORDER BOOKS RELATIVE TO ITS SHARE MARKET CAP
2) GOOD STEADY RETURN FROM OIL & GAS BUSINESS
3) GOOD EXPOSURE TO PLANTATION.
4) STEADY FIXED RETURN ON RENTAL OF HOSPITAL AND UNIVERSITY TO THE GOVT.
5) EKVE HIGHWAY CONCESSION....BTW THIS IS ONE OF THE LONGEST CONCESSION...THE OTHER IS WEST COAST HIGHWAY.

AZRB...IS A POTENT....BIG RETURN FORMULA....!!
A SMALL CAP....BIG PROSPECT = BIG POTENTIAL RETURN GOING FWD

AT THE CURRENT PRICE OF RM O.795 THERE IS ALOT OF UPSIDE OPPORTUNITY FOR AZEB.

INVESTOR JUST NEED TO BE LITTLE BIT PATIENT & WAIT FOR THE POTENTIAL COMING HARVEST .

RAIDER STILL BELIEVE SMALL CAP WITH BIG POTENTIAL = POTENTIAL FOR HUGE PROFITABLE OPPORTUNITY.....SO DON MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY LOH..!!

Posted by CityTrader > 2014-04-20 16:19 | Report Abuse

Just to say hi to a new friend, stockraider n i can learn alot of fa from u. Cheers n Happy Sunday.

Posted by meena > 2014-04-20 17:29 | Report Abuse

Stockraider: Interesting to read your write up...its good and something meaningfull for me.....in future see you here with more write up about good NTA counters....haha

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 17:40 | Report Abuse

Meena,

NTA is not a stable selection of margin of safety stocke.
U must depend on a few criteria selection to cross check each other mah.......!!

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-04-20 18:42 | Report Abuse

Show us your portfolio leh Raider da King

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 18:50 | Report Abuse

Napshot 40 selection in raider biggest bull in investlah thread is raider's portfolio selection.
Raider will give the list to u all this coming Monday or if busy Tuesday....for your perusal n discussion.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 18:54 | Report Abuse

When to sell? A case of Pintaras Jaya kcchongnz

The adjusted share price of Pintaras has been on a very steady climb 5 years ago until early 2013 when its share price jumped at a faster rate after the May 5 General Election. The climb of share price accelerated two weeks ago and closed at RM3.95 on 18th April 2014. For the past one year, the share price has increased by a whopping 163%. So has the share price risen too much too fast? is it time to sell for

a profit now?


Past valuations of Pintaras
B

Checking my previous reports, my first valuation on Pintaras was done on 31st August 2010 when Pintaras closed at an adjusted price of RM0.86. My concluding statement was “all three methods above give a fair value of Pintaras in excess of RM3.35” (or an adjusted price now of RM1.68). That was less than 4 years ago.

About 2 years later, I posted another valuation of Pintaras in i3 using the discount cash flow analysis and below was my comments.

[Posted by kcchongnz > Nov 9, 2012 10:27 AM | Report Abuse X

Pintaras 1st quarter 2013 results shows another improvement of net profit of 18% to 14.3 m, or 18 sen per share. Its net cash from operations also increased by 19% to 20.6 m. As a result net cash holding also improved by 10% to 134.6 m, or 1.68 per share. A discount cash flows analysis with conservative assumptions using the twelve month trailing Ebit, 3% growth for the future and 10% discount rate will yield an intrinsic value of Pintaras of RM7.72 (adjusted price of RM3.86) per share. Is there a frog jumping around? ]

Less than two months ago on 22nd February 2014, I wrote another discount cash flow analysis article on Pintaras giving an intrinsic value of RM4.72 (adjusted) when its share price was RM2.96 then as shown in the appended link below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/46864.jsp

At the close of RM3.95 on 18th April 2014, both of the intrinsic values evaluated on the first two reports were exceeded. Its share price has also increased by 33.5% in less than two months since the third report above was written. It is inching towards its new intrinsic value of RM4.72.

So the pertinent question is, “Has Pintaras share price risen too much too fast that it has exceeded its intrinsic value now?” If so I would definitely sell it before May and go away. To answer this question, let us refer to the assumptions used for my third report above of which the intrinsic value was estimated as RM4.72.

Previous growth assumptions

In the previous discount free cash flow analysis of Pintaras, it was assumed that the FCF will grow at 5% for the next 10 years and subsequently 3% forever, even though it has been growing at a CAGR of

17% for 8 years since 2006. It appears that this assumption is a little conservative.

Many analysts are bullish about the construction industry for the next 5 years. As at to date, Pintaras has already secured RM303 m foundation contracts to be completed in the next one year, as compared to the total trailing twelve month revenue of RM184.4m which includes its tin can business. It does appear that Pintaras is one of the leading foundation contractors, if not the top foundation contractor after securing some of the most prestigious foundation projects recently. So what is the growth for next year, and the next 5 Years? Is it a CAGR of 64% (303/184.4-1)?

Revised Intrinsic value of Pintaras
Of course FCF is very difficult, I would say impossible, to grow at 64% a year for another 5 years. I wouldn’t even assume half of that rate. But let us assume that it grows at a conservative rate of 10% a year, or 5% higher than the previous assumptions, for the next 5 years, 5% the subsequent 5 years, and then 3% forever. Are those assumptions too liberal?

With these new assumptions, the present value of all its future cash flows, or the intrinsic value as obtained from the discount free cash flow analysis at 10% discount rate is RM5.60. At the closing price on 18th April 2014 at RM3.95, the margin of safety investing in Pintaras is a comfortable 42%.

Reverse Discount Cash Flow Analysis

But this is confusing. A change of the growth rate by just 5% for the next 5 years causes so much change in its intrinsic value. So let us not make any uncertain future growth assumptions. But instead, we see what growth rate the market is expecting for Pintaras by doing a reverse discount cash flow analysis (DCFA) and see if that expectation is reasonable. For those who are interested in this reverse DCFA, please refer to the appended link below:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/36514.jsp

The reverse DCFA shows that Pintaras at RM3.95, the market expects the free cash flow of Pintaras to grow at 2.5% a year from now to forever.

Sell or buy?
So what do you think of the reasonableness of this growth expectation? If you think this expectation of 2.5% from now to forever is too high, then you should sell the stock. However, if you think the FCF can grow by 10% for the n

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-20 18:58 | Report Abuse

THE ABOVE ARTICLE PINTARAS JAYA IS POSTED BY KCCHONG & ITS QUITE INFORMATIVE & ANALYTICAL.

ONE OF RAIDER TOP PERFORMING STOCK PINTRAS JAYA HAD BEEN EVALUATED BY KC......RAIDER NO NEED TO REINVEST THE WHEEL MAH....!!

Posted by Christine Goh > 2014-04-20 20:37 | Report Abuse

hai....i m check in check in here.... :D

Posted by newman > 2014-04-21 13:04 | Report Abuse

tony. here strong FA analysis. counters recommended got to hold loh.

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-04-21 14:00 | Report Abuse

raider, waiting for yr napshot 40 selection list

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-21 14:15 | Report Abuse

Raider current selection

1)Alcom
2)AZRB
3)HDBS
4)Kfima
5)Osk
6)Watta

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-04-21 14:19 | Report Abuse

Thanks raider, I have 3,4 & 5

Posted by rantan > 2014-04-21 14:20 | Report Abuse

hi raider, if you dont mind, can u advise ur entry price for ur 6 selections?

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-21 14:23 | Report Abuse

Newman I see you are taking a much deserved break

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-21 14:23 | Report Abuse

All the stock raider recommend here can buy at current price

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-21 14:24 | Report Abuse

Raider will tell holding cost

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-21 14:24 | Report Abuse

Won't*

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-21 17:30 | Report Abuse

U can pick up my cost from My Raider Biggest Bull in Investlah Thread.
Do not worry about my cost.
Do not Worry of Short term fluctuation.
Buy when there is huge margin of safety loh....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-21 23:09 | Report Abuse

Looking at so many stock posting in i3......raider think....very easy to implement raider's Leech investment tech here....!!!

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-21 23:11 | Report Abuse

Sure. Shoot.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-04-21 23:17 | Report Abuse

OSK on the list ?

I am actually thinking of writing an article

Posted by bing > 2014-04-21 23:17 | Report Abuse

stockraider, today I bought ARZB.

Posted by bing > 2014-04-21 23:18 | Report Abuse

Sorry! Wrong typing. AZRB.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-21 23:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-21 23:44 | Report Abuse

Raider i3 leech stock pick;

1) Azrb-or Rm 0.34
2) Bp plastic Rm 0.79
3) FPI Rm 0.95
4) Hexza Rm 0.76

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-21 23:52 | Report Abuse

Raider i3 leech stock pick;

1) Azrb-or Rm 0.34
2) Bp plastic Rm 0.79
3) FPI Rm 0.95
4) Hexza Rm 0.76
5) Bright packaging Rm 0.745

Posted by leno > 2014-04-21 23:56 | Report Abuse

CCB RAIDER ... WAT U DOIN IN MY PALACE ? U NOT YET KOW TOW TO THE KING LENO U DARE TO POST HERE HOR ! NOW ... TELL THE WHOLE WORLD THAT KING LENO IS THE MOST PANLAI INVESTOR .... OR ELSE ...

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-22 00:18 | Report Abuse

Hi Leno....long time....no post post ah ?

Now Give one of your best napshot....for the i3 Leech Portfolio loh...!!

Posted by Steven Yong > 2014-04-22 00:23 | Report Abuse

Wah, finally Leno out. No more panlai in PMCORP and INSAS?

Posted by leno > 2014-04-22 00:27 | Report Abuse

just come back from holiday ... good friday extend to monday ... sarawak holiday mar ... no follow market for past 1 week ... goyang kaki ... watching my money growing like crazy. Currently holding same stock ... insas, prkcorp, lcth, mnrb, and pmcorp ... net share worth more than RM 4 liaw .... HAHAHAHAHAH ! TOld u last time ... no need to do anyting for these few past year .. just sit back and relax ... the clue is ... "when there are tons of net cash counters everi where = thou shall do nothin at all .." quote from leno bible.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-22 00:32 | Report Abuse

Leno Aiyah....sure u got something....u r the most panlai....investor mah.....contribute something sensible loh....!!

Posted by leno > 2014-04-22 00:38 | Report Abuse

HAHAAHAH ... these 5 is more than enaf lor. My record now stand at more than 25% per year for 12 consecutive year. More than enaf for ME MAR. WHY ? U wan to repeat your c2peed mistake givin out 50 counter again hah ? HEY ! I got a LIFE to live also mar. U know for past 2 year i start running .. from less than 1 km ... now i run 6 km in less than 27 min 30 sec ! U better get some life other than share hor. This sincere advise from The Most Panlai Investor hor.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-22 00:46 | Report Abuse

Raider want to see leno still got the same panlainess mah.....!!
Anyhow u chose not to contribute....never mind loh.....!!
Bcos raider is still the 2nd most panlai investor mah....!

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-22 00:57 | Report Abuse

Hahaha, investlah culture repeated here. Phew!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-22 09:26 | Report Abuse

Raider i3 leech stock pick;

1) Azrb-or Rm 0.34
2) Bp plastic Rm 0.79
3) FPI Rm 0.95
4) Hexza Rm 0.76
5) Bright packaging Rm 0.745
6) PPG Rm 0.54

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-22 10:50 | Report Abuse

Thanks raider

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-22 17:45 | Report Abuse

Raider i3 leech stock pick;

1) Azrb-or Rm 0.34
2) Bp plastic Rm 0.79
3) FPI Rm 0.95
4) Hexza Rm 0.76
5) Bright packaging Rm 0.745
6) PPG Rm 0.54
7) Cliq Rm 0.625

Raider has added cliq in the portfolio risk loh.....!!
When u invest...on value & for long term your heart must be steady mah...!!
Just stay on course.....no matter how market fluctuate mah....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-22 22:57 | Report Abuse

Raider i3 leech stock pick;

1) Azrb-or Rm 0.34
2) Bp plastic Rm 0.79
3) FPI Rm 0.95
4) Hexza Rm 0.76
5) Bright packaging Rm 0.745
6) PPG Rm 0.54
7) Cliq Rm 0.625

a) AZRB-OR habis cerita.....now is to subscribe for the rights with warrants
b) Bp plastic ....actually playing on dividend yield....a long term investment. It is a defensive approach.
c) FPI play on dividend & strong balance sheet....corporate development....ACER subsidiary bought a big holding. Also huge dividend from ASSOCIATE and disposal of business to Datasonic. With so much positive development.....very difficult share price cannot move up for profit opportunity loh...!!
d) Hexza defensive margin of safety investment with strong balance sheet and good dividend yield payout mah....!!
e) Bright Packaging....play on high margin and a stable business industry.
f) PPG pure dividend play, low PE and high NTA exposure couple with strong balance sheet mah....!!
g) CLIQ....actually a defensive speculative play....with minimum downside cash cover of Rm 0.675. Very good play when market become more & more speculative loh....!!

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-04-22 23:09 | Report Abuse

raider, i join u on ppg tomorrow, high yield 7.3%, nta almost double share price but latest qtr negative cash flow from operation loh