Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-22 23:14 | Report Abuse

Sephiroth,

This PPG is just a pure undervalue business.
Market cap very tiny....huge discount to NTA.
Suitable for a rising market play...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-22 23:23 | Report Abuse

An investment Dedicated to SPAC

Why worried about this QA story....naturally talk about QA wont never end
until sona or cliq completed the QA........and it has to come sooner or later...I dont think sona/cliq will throw that Rm 350M to RM 500m into the drain......
-----
I agree. Just a matter of time. Anytime now.

THE ABOVE STATEMENT MAKE ALOT OF SENSE LOH....!!
BUT WHICH SPAC IS BETTER SONA OR CLIQ ?

RAIDER THINK CLIQ is better BCOS IT IS BELOW THE CASH LEVEL OF RM 0.675...LOH!!

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-04-22 23:24 | Report Abuse

raider, azrb few percent profit margin only and high debt

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-22 23:33 | Report Abuse

Sephi

It is not profit margin.....but good assets and large contracts in hand mah...!!

Different investment....use different strategy loh....!!
Must be versatile mah....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-22 23:39 | Report Abuse

Raider i3 leech stock pick;

1) Azrb-or Rm 0.34
2) Bp plastic Rm 0.79
3) FPI Rm 0.95
4) Hexza Rm 0.76
5) Bright packaging Rm 0.745
6) PPG Rm 0.54
7) Cliq Rm 0.625

a) AZRB-OR habis cerita.....now is to subscribe for the rights with warrants
b) Bp plastic ....actually playing on dividend yield....a long term investment. It is a defensive approach.
c) FPI play on dividend & strong balance sheet....corporate development....ACER subsidiary bought a big holding. Also huge dividend from ASSOCIATE and disposal of business to Datasonic. With so much positive development.....very difficult share price cannot move up for profit opportunity loh...!!
d) Hexza defensive margin of safety investment with strong balance sheet and good dividend yield payout mah....!!
e) Bright Packaging....play on high margin and a stable business industry.
f) PPG pure dividend play, low PE and high NTA exposure couple with strong balance sheet mah....!!
g) CLIQ....actually a defensive speculative play....with minimum downside cash cover of Rm 0.675. Very good play when market become more & more speculative loh....!!

IF U LOOK AT RAIDER PICKING....NOT ALL WILL SHOW PROFIT IMMEDIATELY LOH....!!
IN FACT U SHOULD NOT EXPECT OR HAVE THE MENTALITY TO MAKE IMMEDIATE PROFIT AFTER U BUY....!!
GIVE SOME TIME BE PATIENT....LET THE STOCK....SLOWLY GET RERATED...!!
SLOWLY ACCUMULATE....AFTER U HAD ZERO DOWN ON YOUR TARGET STOCK....!!

MAKE SURE THE STOCK GOT MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!
GIVE THE REASON WHY U BUY THE STOCK LOH.....!!
SO WHEN THING CHANGE....U CAN REVIEW YOUR POSITION EASILY LOH...!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 00:13 | Report Abuse

AN ARTICLE REPRODUCE FOR ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION


A plan in place does not mean sure success, but no plan at all is a sure failure.
For most new investors who have not really "taste" a bear market like me, I think it is necessary to have a plan for it.

What should you do when a bear market arrive?
Should you buy at discounted price? What should you buy and when is the right timing to buy cheap?

I think everyone has their own ways of facing a bear market, but it is important to plan ahead, especially for mid to long term investors.
For short term traders who rarely hold the shares long, it does not really matter that much.

Bear market is unpredictable. Most of the time when things already happened then only we regret and say that we should or shouldn't have done this or that.

For example during the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis, KLCI lost 75% from early 1997.
When KLCI fell from 1,200 to 1,000 points, many people may think that it was time to pick up some cheap shares. However, it later turned out to be just an early part of a fierce bear market.

KLCI then fell deeper to 500 points in Jan 1998, which was already 60% lower from its peak. At this time, there was a significant rebound (shown in green circle in chart above). This might be a "confirmation" trend reversal sign for many people as no one could imagine that it could go lower than 500 points.

A lot of investors might have swept the shares while the KLCI was at 700 points around Feb 1998. The truth was, KLCI fell another 60% from there to 300 points just 6 months later.

At 300 points, some "not-so-brave" investors might worried about another round of drop. They waited and only went back in when the downtrend was broken in May 1999.

At this point of time, KLCI already gained 100% from its bottom and chances were missed. However, it is still not wrong as KLCI rose to 1,000 and then 1,400 later.

Those who completely shy away from stock market after being burned should be the real losers.
So, it is obvious that no one can time the market and predict its severity.

When Should I Sell?
Some value investors might think that we should hold the shares and even top up the shares throughout the bear market as long as the companies are fundamentally strong.

However, any fundamentally-sound company may turn unsound after a bear market.

Lets say I bought Public Bank at RM10 in year 2009. Its share price goes up to RM20 now with a 100% gain. If bear strikes now and PBB's share price drop to RM15, RM10 then RM5 in 1-2 years time, should I do nothing? Or should I buy more at RM15, RM10 & RM5 to average down?
When the market recovers, PBB might again reach RM20 in few years time as it is fundamentally strong. It seems like it is OK if I didn't sell any shares earlier.
However, something unforeseen might occur during the market slump such as change of management or fierce competition etc which make PBB not fundamentally strong anymore, and its share price might not reach RM10 again.

Furthermore, to see my 100% gain built up in 4 years gone down the drain in 1 year is painful. If it takes another 5 years for PBB to reach RM10, then it is zero paper gain after investing in PBB for 10 years (exclude dividend). Why not sell and then buy again later to earn more than 100%?
If I sell PBB at RM20 and buy back at RM5 then this will be ideal but it's as difficult as striking a lottery.

Personally, I still haven't reach the "noble" stage in which I will not worry even when the sky falls down. So I think I should sell during a bear market. As I won't know the bear's behaviour, it is better to sell in stages.

In a real bear market, the indexes will fall much more than 20%. However, please bear in mind that there are a few times in recent history (esp when KLCI was below 1,000 level) that it fell 20-30% but not more than that afterwards.

What to sell?
For me, the first few stocks to offload when things are turning sour but still not clear, are those with relatively high valuation and high gearing. The last to go, if needed, should be those defensive stocks.
stocks are those involved in non-cyclical business, in which their businesses are least affected by fluctuating business cycles and
market volatility.
Such stocks include utilities and some consumer stocks, as people
still need electricity, water, basic travel, food, clothes, and may be gloves etc during a bear market.

RAIDER SAY TO PROTECT YOURSELF U MUST GET YOUR BEARINGS RIGHTS;
1) ALWAYS CHECK YOUR STOCK GOT HUGE MARGIN OF SAFETY
2) MAKE SURE THE STOCK U HOLD HAS LOW GEARING
3) EVERY STOCK U HOLD MUST HAS A MAX EXPOSURE LIMIT
4) SELL WHEN U NEED MONIES, WHEN BUSINESS DETERIORATES OR WHEN U OVER INVEST.

Posted by houseofordos > 2014-04-23 00:24 | Report Abuse

seph how you come up with 7.3% div yield for PPG ? Dividend 4%, par value 0.5 is 2 sen per year only. That's 3.7% yield.

Posted by nicholasnwh90 > 2014-04-23 00:27 | Report Abuse

Thanks 'panlai' raider for the sharing on the strategy for bear market. I think it will be applicable sooner or later!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 00:28 | Report Abuse

If u look at raider's article....u can see almost all raider's posting......got this word...."Margin of Safety"....u may think raider long winded loh.....!!

Yes raider intentionally to be long winded loh....!!

Why ?
U look at engineer....they design bridge, Highway, Building all with a big allowance or tolerance limit.
The objective is to able withstand shock loh....!!

Likewise....for an investor.....in order to be safe & successful...he too has to buy stock....with hign tolerance to withstand shock loh..!!

So if u high margin of safety...u can tolerate higher unforeseen risk mah.....!!

But.....if an investor....use....this method & refuse to buy....unless & until damn Cheap....is this a successful approach ah ?

Yes n No ....loh....if u refuse to buy even there is margin of safety....until u get ridiculous very cheap price....u may lose opportunity too.....!!

Therefore u need to be practical n balance to in order to be a successful investor loh.....!!

Posted by splendid_ignorance > 2014-04-23 00:29 | Report Abuse

hi stockraider. thanks for sharing. am holding a few azrb-or. how much do you think the warrants will be priced at listing? theoretically it is in-the-money with exercise price of 0.70. given it's long period to expiry I believe it should trade in the range of 0.20 - 0.25.

On cliq ya i believe there is not much downside to it at this level with the guarantee of 0.675. that said, market talk wise I believe sona's mgmt has a better reputation - hence ppl are betting that QA will come to them first.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 00:33 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by tonylim > 2014-04-23 09:42 | Report Abuse

Thanks raider

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 10:27 | Report Abuse

RAIDER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT HERE ON RAIDER'S PROMOTIONAL PRINCIPLE .

"RAIDER WILL NOT PROMOTE ANY STOCKS WHICH RAIDER THINK ARE OVERVALUE DESPITE RAIDER STILL HAVING EXPOSURE ON THAT STOCKS LOH...!!"

IF U WILL NOTICE HAVING MANY MANY DIFF STOCKS....BUT SOME STOCKS RAIDER DON PROMOTE LOH....!!

Posted by leno > 2014-04-23 10:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-04-23 10:44 | Report Abuse

houseofordos , u r right, initially i tot the par value is 1.00

Posted by houseofordos > Apr 23, 2014 12:24 AM | Report Abuse

seph how you come up with 7.3% div yield for PPG ? Dividend 4%, par value 0.5 is 2 sen per year only. That's 3.7% yield.

Posted by Fabien Wong > 2014-04-23 14:31 | Report Abuse

No wonder never see Raider at investlah anymore. You are starting a new thread here!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:03 | Report Abuse

In sustainable long term successful investment, u need to master 3 important investment element.

1) Your entry price......Raider always quote as margin of safety.

2) The management....The quality of the management that will steer the company well.

3) The business itself....The fundamental & prospect and growth.....People usually call this "he Quality Aspect."

If u passed the above 3 test.....your investment will be very sound loh.....~~!!
But in real life....u may not get complete perfection mah.....!!

However there are sometime....u cannot achieve all the 3 condition.....will u still invest ?

Just take Nestle....it passed (2) and (3).....but failed ( 1)......would u still invest ?
It depends....how far....u had failed (1).....if market for bluechips.....is at PE 14-16......U are at PE 30X....the Gap is too wide loh...!!
But if the gap is narrowed.....perhaps can consider....when it is 16-20x loh.....!!

As for Lcth.....it has passed item (1) with flying colors cash more than share price.... but had marginally failed on item (2) and (3)....do u still buy ?
It depend on the price loh.....if LCTH is at Rm 0.17....it is a very strong buy loh....!! Item 2 & 3 weaknesses is compensated by the strength of 1 mah..!!

This raider....call balance assessment loh.....!! All " yin & yang"......investment approach loh.....!!

Btw.....investment is an art mah.....some judgement is required loh.....!!

REMEMBER FOR VALUE INVESTOR....THERE IS NO HARD & FAST RULES LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:05 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:11 | Report Abuse

In sustainable long term successful investment, u need to master 3 important investment element.

1) Your entry price......Raider always quote as margin of safety.

2) The management....The quality of the management that will steer the company well.

3) The business itself....The fundamental & prospect and growth.....People usually call this "he Quality Aspect."

If u passed the above 3 test.....your investment will be very sound loh.....~~!!
But in real life....u may not get complete perfection mah.....!!

However there are sometime....u cannot achieve all the 3 condition.....will u still invest ?

Just take Nestle....it passed (2) and (3).....but failed ( 1)......would u still invest ?
It depends....how far....u had failed (1).....if market for bluechips.....is at PE 14-16......U are at PE 30X....the Gap is too wide loh...!!
But if the gap is narrowed.....perhaps can consider....when it is 16-20x loh.....!!

As for Lcth.....it has passed item (1) with flying colors cash more than share price.... but had marginally failed on item (2) and (3)....do u still buy ?
It depend on the price loh.....if LCTH is at Rm 0.17....it is a very strong buy loh....!! Item 2 & 3 weaknesses is compensated by the strength of 1 mah..!!

This raider....call balance assessment loh.....!! All " yin & yang"......investment approach loh.....!!

Btw.....investment is an art mah.....some judgement is required loh.....!!

REMEMBER FOR VALUE INVESTOR....THERE IS NO HARD & FAST RULES LOH...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:12 | Report Abuse

Your observation correctloh.....if u use NTA u r going to miss quality company or high ROE company loh.....!!
And vice versa loh.......!!

R u going to do away....High NTA margin of safety investment ?
Of course not loh......bcos this is an area of rich picking for margin of safety investment mah.....!!

Then what about high ROE quality company ?
Of course u r not going to miss too mah.....!!

Therefore u have 2 categories loh......!!

1) High margin of safety as a basis of investment

2) High ROE quality investment loh.....!!

High ROE quality investment or focus investment....!!

How do I take qualitative factors into consideration when using fundamental analysis?

Qualitative Factors in Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is the method of analyzing companies based on factors that affect their intrinsic value. There are two sides to this method: the quantitative and the qualitative.

- The quantitative side involves looking at factors that can be measured numerically, such as the company's assets, liabilities, cash flow, revenue and price-to-earnings ratio.

- The limitation of quantitative analysis, however, is that it does not capture the company's aspects or risks unmeasurable by a number - things like the value of an executive or the risks a company faces with legal issues.

- The analysis of these things is the other side of fundamental analysis: the qualitative side or non-number side.

Although relatively more difficult to analyze, the qualitative factors are an important part of a company.

- Since they are not measured by a number, they more represent an either negative or positive force affecting the company.
- But some of these qualitative factors will have more of an effect, and determining the extent of these effects is what is so challenging.
- To start, identify a set of qualitative factors and then decide which of these factors add value to the company, and which of these factors decrease value.
- Then determine their relative importance.
- The qualities you analyze can be categorized as having a positive effect, negative effect or minimal effect.

The best way to incorporate qualitative analysis into your evaluation of a company is to do it once you have done the quantitative analysis.

- The conclusion you come to on the qualitative side can put your quantitative analysis into better perspective.
- If when looking at the company numbers you saw good reason to buy the company, but then found many negative qualities, you may want to think twice about buying.
- Negative qualities might include potential litigations, poor R and D prospects or a board full of insiders.
- The conclusions of your qualitative analysis either reconfirms or raise questions about the conclusions of your quantitative analysis.

Fundamental analysis is not as simple as looking at numbers and computing ratios; it is also important to look at influences and qualities that do not have a number value.

A Special look into Focus investment or Qualitative aspect of investment by General Raider;

1) Business Tenets
1.1) Business simple & understandable
1.2) Consistent Operating History
1.3) Favorable Long Term Prospect

2) Management Tenet
2.1) Management rational
2.2) Management candid to shareholder
2.3) Management resist institutional imperative

3) Financial Tenet
3.1) ROE strong
3.2) Look through owner earnings
3.3) high gross profit margin
3.4) A dollar retained result in equal or more increase in share price

4) Market tenet
4.1) Value of the business
4.2) Purchase at a significant discount to its value

5) Raider's additional stringent test tenet
5.1) Balance sheet strong & gearing rule
5.2) Ability to pay consistent & increasing dividend
5.3) Growing EPS
5.4) PE looks reasonable
5.5) Very Strong Cash flow Generations
5.6) Sustainable Earnings Breakout
5.7) Business & Product leadership position


HAVING SAY ALL THESE THING.....U STILL MUST ALSO REMEMBER NOT TO MISS THE MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT INVESTMENT TECH LOH....!!
THIS METHOD HAS BEEN PROVEN BY MANY PEOPLE INCLUDING LENO, RAIDER, SENIOR ANALYST, BLUR BLUR, B GRAHAM & W BUFFET(IN THE YOUNGER DAYS B4 HE GOT LAZY) AND REALLY HELP THEM MAKE ALOT OF MONIES

JUST IMAGINE U BUY INTO COMPANIES WITH CASH EXCEEDING THE SHARE PRICE LIKE INSAS, LCTH, PNE PCB, PMCORP ETC AND WITH DISCOUNT TO NTA OF UPTO 70% TO 80%....HOW CAN ANYONE MISS THIS TYPE OF OPPORTUNITY.....AND HOW COULD ANYONE GET IT WRONG LEH ?

THIS TYPE OF DISCOUNT IS BETTER THAN MEGA SALE LOH.....!!
BUT WHEN MARKET IS IMPROVING....U GET LESS & LESS THIS TYPE OF OPPORTUNITY LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:16 | Report Abuse

Because of this Margin of Safety principal, General Raider has been able to average 30% per annum for the past 5 years. So remember always stick to Margin of Safety 1st and then only followed by the rest, if no margin of safety forget it even though there is quality. Thumbs Up Thumbs Up Thumbs Up

Why Raider think u must not move away from margin of safety investment ? no matter what happen loh....!!

A good example our regular critic on margin of safety on non so quality stock.....had been touting quality....quality....but these quality stocks had been underperforming for the past 3 mths loh.....!!

why leh ? Bcos overvalue mah.....!!

Lets raider prove it loh......!!

List of 3i special selected stocks
1)Pbank
4 -4- 2014 rm 20.80
31-12-2013 rm 19.40
gain 7.2%

2) Nestle
4-4-2014 rm 66.66
31-12-2013 rm 68.00
loss 1.9%

3) Dlady
4-4-2014 Rm 47.36
31-12-2013 rm 47.14
Breakeven

4) Guiness
4-4-2014 Rm 16.00
31-12-2013 Rm 13.98
loss 12.6%

5) LPI
4-4-2014 Rm 16.58
31-12-2013 Rm 17.44
Loss 5%

Notice 3i highly touted bluechips registered average loss of 5% for past 3 mths

Notice that non quality margin of safety stocks 3i always talk bad outperformed loh.....!!

1) Insas
4-4-2014 Rm 1.28
31-12-2013 Rm 0.875
Gain 46%

2) GSB
4-4-2014 Rm 0.12
31-12-2013 Rm 0.085
Gain 41%

3) Eforce
4-4-2014 Rm 0.72
31-12-2013 Rm 0.565
Gain 27%

4) Mkland
4-4-2014 Rm 0.435
31-12-2013 Rm 0.36
Gain 20.8%
Not so popular margin of safety stocks....which have been look down by 3i registered an average gain of 30% for the past 3 mths loh......!!


CONCLUSION

MARGIN OF SAFETY IS STILL THE BEST INVESTMENT STRATEGY LOH......!!

U R SURPRISE WITH ABOVE FINDINGS ?
YES.....!! PLEASE DO NOT ABANDONED MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH.....!!
THIS IS A LUCRATIVE INVESTMENT TECH MAH......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:18 | Report Abuse

Raider special revision advise loh......!!

CHINA COMPANY LISTED IN BURSA SHOWS GOOD EARNINGS...LOW PE....SHOULD BE A HAVEN FOR FUNDAMENTAL INVESTOR LOH....!
BUT IT IS NOT LOH.....!!!
DUE TO PERCEIVE CORP GOVERNANCE PROBLEM....!!

CASH IN THE BALANCE SHEET CAN DISAPPEAR, PROPERTY CAN BE NON EXISTENT, PROFIT & ASSETS OVERSTATED AND FURTHERMORE RELATIVELY NO DIVIDEND OR NEGLIBLE....DESPITE HUGE CASH BALANCE SHEET & PROFIT LOH.....!!

IF U CANNOT RELY ON THE ACCOUNTS....WHAT'S YOUR INVESTMENT ANGLE LEH ??

HAVING SAY THAT.....RAIDER....WILL BE MORE CONFIDENT IF THERE IS A MAJOR REPUTABLE FOREIGN SHAREHOLDER, THE AUDITOR ARE BIG 4 AND THE COMPANY HAD PAID REASONABLE, MAINTAINABLE AND GROWING DIVIDEND FOR THE PAST 3 YRS LOH..!!
IF IT HAD NOT FULLFILLED THESE CRITERIA IT IS STILL SPECULATIVE BCOS OF PERCEIVE CORP GOVERNANCE RISK MAH....!!!

If u r new in CHINA.....u still had many thing to learn......u better take the safer route in return for a more modest safer return mah......!!

But for Msia......u r very familiar.....so u should be abit more adventurous loh.....!!

Of couse if a china based company listed in msia.....u should be xtremely caution bcos these are 4th to 5th tier companies mah...!!
Raider & Kuda Quek had really great local experience on Msports......although we make monies....but a lot of not so skilled investors, are not so fortunate loh......!! Raider had learned to be very careful here when investing in these type of companies..thats why raider make the above comment.!!

Although Margin of Safety is the most important element of investment but integrity and corporate governance are very important too mah.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:21 | Report Abuse

A Special look into Focus investment by Raider;

1) Business Tenets
1.1) Business simple & understandable
1.2) Consistent Operating History
1.3) Favorable Long Term Prospect

2) Management Tenet
2.1) Management rational
2.2) Management candid to shareholder
2.3) Management resist institutional imperative

3) Financial Tenet
3.1) ROE strong
3.2) Look through owner earnings
3.3) high gross profit margin
3.4) A dollar retained result in equal or more increase in share price

4) Market tenet
4.1) Value of the business
4.2) Purchase at a significant discount to its value

5) Raider's additional stringent test tenet
5.1) Balance sheet strong & gearing rule
5.2) Ability to pay consistent & increasing dividend
5.3) Growing EPS
5.4) PE looks reasonable
5.5) Very Strong Cash flow Generations
5.6) Sustainable Earnings Breakout
5.7) Business & Product leadership position

Posted by dragonking > 2014-04-23 23:23 | Report Abuse

Raider, I am follower of Loeb - Battle for investment survival. Buy when in speculative grade and sell when become investment grade.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:24 | Report Abuse

QUALITY: a high quality company has a lot of margin of safety.

MANAGEMENT: a business managed by people with integrity has a lot of margin of safety.

VALUATION: buying at a discount to the intrinsic value gives a margin of safety.

Quality is quality
Margin of safety is margin of safety mah......!!

These are different important component for good investment.....!!

Of course....a quality can deserve a lower margin of safety hurdle loh........!!

Whereas a chehkai......company.....will demand a very high margin of safety mah......!!

In horse racing...... a good horse with consistent reputable winnings, would not require handicapped whereas.....a unknown horse with lack of success will require very big handicapped loh.....!!

In horse racing....u can buy unknown horse......bcos when u win the payout is very high....whereas famous reputable horse the payout is low loh......!!

People call this scenario odds management mah.....!!

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-04-23 23:24 | Report Abuse

raider, LCTH i bot 20 sen, wait for like ages then recently sold 27, phew

what's yr tp for ppg and bright? thanks

Posted by dragonking > 2014-04-23 23:27 | Report Abuse

Good work raider. Hopefully after seeing the positive and negative pack of people. Our investment horizon is enlarge 4 better perspective and most importantly all profit or huat with emas index soaring this few months.

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:29 | Report Abuse

U MUST UNDERSTAND THE MIND BEHIND B GRAHAM THINKING MAH......!!
ACTUALLY....BGRAHAM.....DO UNDERSTAND THE CONCEPT OF GROWTH AND MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH....!!
HE ALSO AGREE THAT COMPANY THAT HAS SUSTAINABLE EARNINGS LIKE BLUECHIPS SHOULD WARRANT HIGHER VALUATION RATING LOH.......!!

BUT B GRAHAM......DO NOT AGREE WITH.....OVER-ZEALOUS INVESTORS.....THAT IMPOSE GROWTH ON THE SHARE, WHEN THEY ARE TRYING TO JUSTIFY THE INVESTMENT.....GIVEN THE FACT IN THIS SITUATION, IF THE SHARE IS VALUE ON ITS OWN WILL FAIL THE MARGIN OF SAFETY TEST LOH.....!!

A GOOD EXAMPLE....IS PET DAG AND NESTLE AT PE 30X AND DIVIDEND YIELD OF 3% PA WOULD HAVE FAILED THE STRINGENT MARGIN OF SAFETY TEST.....AS GIVEN BY B GRAHAM FORMULA LOH.....!!

BEN GRAHAM.....MARGIN OF SAFETY.....FAVOR....THE CONDITION THAT, IF THE BUSINESS & ASSETS WILL TO BREAKOUT AND SOLD SEPARATELY THE VALUE FROM BREAKOUT FAR EXCEED ITS VALUATION......THIS IS CALL MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH.....!!

WHERE A COMPANY....IS FORECAST TO GROW & GROW OVER MANY MANY YEARS TO THE POINT IT VALUE, FAR EXCEED THE VALUE OF INITIAL INVESTMENT..BGRAHAM SEE....IT IS SPECULATIVE....AND NOT IN FAVOR FOR ORDINARY MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT LOH.....!!

THERE U SEE THE DEVIATION OF THINKING BETWEEN B GRAHAM V W BUFFET LOH....!!

IN A NUTSHELL....RAIDER RECOMMEND B GRAHAM....MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT TO ASPIRING INVESTOR AND NOT W BUFFET METHODS.....BCOS IN W BUFFET METHODS....HE IS MORE A BUSINESSMAN THAN INVESTOR MAH.....!!

SO W BUFFET NOT FIT FOR ORDINARY INVESTOR LOH....!!

B GRAHAM INVESTMENT TECH....IS EASILY UNDERSTAND BY MOST INVESTOR LOH....!!

FURTHERMORE B GRAHAM UNDERSTAND......THAT ORDINARY INVESTOR HAVE NO CONTROL OF THE DIRECTION.....OF THE BUSINESS....HE SHOULD IMPOSE A TIME LIMIT ON HIS HOLDING...JUST IN CASE HE IS WRONG IN HIS ANALYSIS MAH.....!!

BGRAHAM.....ALSO RECOMMEND.....IF MR MARKET....OFFER U A GOOD PRICE....U SHOULD UNEMOTIONALLY SELL TO HIM LOH....!!
THIS IS BCOS.....U HAVE NO CONTROL.....OF THE BUSINESS....SO IF THE BUYER....OFFER U A GOOD PRICE....U MUST TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY TO SELL TO HIM LOH.....!!
IF U DO NOT....MR MARKET MAY NOT.....GIVE U ANOTHER VERY GOOD OFFER...R....AND U MAY NEED TO WAIT N WAIT.....FOR MR MARKET REGAIN HIS OPTIMISM AGAIN LOH.....!!

SO FOR ORDINARY INVESTOR....YOUR REWARD COME IN 2 WAYS....THAT IS IN THE FORM OF CAPITAL GAIN AND DIVIDEND STREAM LOH....!!
IF THE SHARE PRICE FAR EXCEED THE VALUATION VALUE OR MARGIN OF SAFETY.....IT IS A NO BRAINER TO SELL MAH.....!!

Posted by sephiroth > 2014-04-23 23:29 | Report Abuse

very few FA investors in i3, i am one of the few loh, raider's post very detail and informative, appreciate yr effort, most in i3 hit n run loh, just bought hwang yesterday at 1.82, 3 months target return 20%

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:31 | Report Abuse

WHY RAIDER ALSO ADVISE PEOPLE TO STAY CLEAR OF OPTION, FOREX & FUTURES, IF U WANT TO BE A GOOD INVESTOR ?

Options are complex securities and can be extremely risky. They are not complex to me, as you can easily discover from my thread on options trading. And they are not extremely risky if you truly understand options. They can be extremely risky as well as very mildly risky, assuming you understand the meaning of very mildly risky. And to get extremely risky or very mildly risky would depend on the trader himself and not the trading instrument. Generally when a person made a mistake, he will blame his mistake on others.

This is why, when trading options, you'll see a disclaimer like the following:

- Options involve risks and are not suitable for everyone.

- Option trading can be speculative in nature and carry substantial risk of loss.

- Only invest with risk capital.

Despite what anybody tells you, option trading involves risk, especially if you don't know what you are doing.

Because of this, many people suggest you steer clear of options and forget their existence. Options are far less risky than futures and forex, and can be proven by statistics. The winning edge is simply not there for futures and forex traders (imagine 45% probability of winning, you will certainly lose everything over a lifetime of trading regardless of how much you win today). But still, the futures market and forex markets are in multiple trillions in trading volume every day, participated by people from all walks of life. And not many ever advised anyone to avoid trading futures and forex. Certainly not iiinvestsmart who lacks understanding of the futures and forex markets.

OPTION, FOREX & FUTURE ARE ALL TRADING INSTRUMENTS WHICH ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR INVESTORS LOH....!!
THESE INSTRUMENT HAVE INBUILT LEVERAGE MAKING....IT HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE & TOXIC IN SPECULATIVE BETS LOH.......!!

AS RAIDER ADVISE INVESTORS TO STAY CLEAR BCOS IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH AN ANCHOR OF VALUES TO DETERMINE THE MARGIN OF SAFETY, THE FUNDAMENTAL OF INVESTING, HOWEVER TRADERS & SPECULATORS ARE ENCOURAGE TO LOOK INTO THESE INSTRUMENTS BCOS IT IS SUITABLE TO THEM MAH......!!

U NEED TO WEAR THE ROBES OF TRADERS & SPECULATORS, IF U NEED TO EMBARK IN BUSINESS OF THESE INSTRUMENTS MAH....!!

U NEED TO LEARN THE SKILL OF TRADERS & SPECULATORS 1ST LOH......!!
DO NOT CONFUSE WITH INVESTMENT MAH......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:35 | Report Abuse

Five Reasons Why A Real Trader Is Not A Gambler How often have you heard someone say that they just bought a stock because they have a feeling that it is going to move higher? Personally, I hear someone tell me that every single trading day.
When I ask them how they know the stock is going to move higher they answer by saying it's a hunch or they heard someone talk about it. Well, in the trading world it is not prudent to take tips or trade on a hunch. There needs to be a sound methodology for taking a trade, otherwise it is just gambling.

It is important to note, a good trader has the odds in his favor while a gambler does not. Just think about it, how can a Las Vegas casino stay in business if they do not have the odds in their favor? The answer is they can't. A casino knows that the odds are always in their favor and the longer a gambler plays in the casino the more likely the casino will take their money. As a trader you want to be Steve Wynn, not the guy at the roulette wheel placing bets.
Here are five reasons why a good trader is not a gambler, but more like a Las Vegas casino owner:

1. A good trader takes a position when the odds are in his favor, not when the odds are against him. An educated trader will accomplish this task by using charts and understanding the human emotion that is being displayed on a chart. That is why certain breakout and breakdown patterns continue to reoccur throughout history. The chart pattern is simply recording the human emotion that is taking place in that particular equity.

2. A good trader will know when to cut his loss when he is wrong. The legendary trader Jesse Livermore used to say that a trader should never take more than a 10 percent loss on any position. Even a Las Vegas casino will cut off a hot gambler if they win too much money. When a trader can admit they are wrong on a trade and limit the loss it is much easier to come back from that error. Traders must always use a stop loss.

3. A good trader does not need constant action in the market. A trader only enters a trade when the chart setup favors that he will make money. If the chart setup does not overwhelmingly support a pattern then the trader does not want to be in the position. A gambler constantly needs action; they continuously need to have some type of bet in place at all times. This gambler mentality is one of the reasons why so many people over-trade and lose money. A good trader patiently stalks out a stock or equity waiting for the right chart setup to appear. One thing I have learned over the years is that the worst thing you can do as a trader or investor is to force your will on the market. Chart patterns make money and you must patiently seek the good charts out.

4. A good trader does not trade will with capital they cannot afford to lose. It is so important to be calm and keep all of your senses when trading. I have seen traders enter a position hoping that it is going to work out and their heart rate jumps up like they are running a marathon, this is usually a sign that they are trading too much money. A trader should not use capital that makes them feel uncomfortable. A gambler will usually bet the farm on a single bet, a good trader will not. Gamblers are always doubling down after they lose; this is a recipe for disaster, especially if you are a trader. I have seen traders blow up their entire accounts by doubling down and averaging in.

5. A good trader does not take tips from others, but looks at the chart and decides whether the pattern is bullish or bearish. Have you ever been to a horse track? Half of the bets in a horse race are because someone has given someone else a tip. Good traders do their own due diligence and never listen to the public. Remember, when everyone is looking at the same thing it will rarely happen. Never take tips. Even the legendary Jesse Livermore admitted this to be one of his biggest mistakes as it was usually one of the main reasons for his trading losses.

THE MECHANISM MENTIONED HERE, MEANS TRADING IS NOT GAMBLING MAH.....!
BUT PLEASE ON GUARD FOR TRADERS....THE POTENTIAL RISK OF OVER TRADING & LEVERAGE MAH....!!

WHY THE GREAT TRADING SIFU....JESSE LIVERMORE BANKRUPT A FEW TIMES....OVER HIS LIFETIME ?
THIS IS ALL BCOS OF OVER-LEVERAGE & OVER TRADING MAH......!!

SO JUST BECAREFUL....DO NOT ENTER THE ROUTE OF OVER TRADING & OVER LEVERAGE MAH.....!!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:38 | Report Abuse

What to Do When the Market Crashes
By Ser Jing Chong - January 7, 2014

For those of you who are wondering when or if markets will crash in the future, fear not – they will crash again sometime. But as to when it’ll happen, your guess is as good as mine and no one really knows for sure.

But, like I just mentioned, what we do know, is that stock markets around the world will crash again in the future. Stock market volatility is just part and parcel of the game and it really is as natural as how night follows day.

My American colleague Morgan Housel once did a study on the frequency of crashes for the S&P 500 (a widely-followed American stock market index) going back to 1928, and found that a 10% drop from a recent high occurs as frequently as once every 11 months.

Assuming that he has a $1,000 cash cushion in his investment account, Morgan came up with a rough guide for what he would do with that cash based on the severity and frequency of market crashes. Here it is:

Market falls by this much

Invest this much
(% of $1000)

Historical frequency

10%

$100 (10%)

Every 11 months

15%

$220 (22%)

Every 24 months

20%

$300 (30%)

Every four years

30%

$130 (13%)

Every decade

40%

$125 (12.5%)

Every few decades

50%

$125 (12.5%)

2-3 times per century

The basic idea behind Morgan’s thinking is that he wants to take the greatest advantage from crashes that are both severe, as well as historically frequent.

IN OTHER WORDS.....IF U MISS THE RUNUP.....U WAIT FOR ABOUT 11 MTHS FOR A 10% CORRECTION.
U WAIT FOR 2 YRS FOR A 15% CORRECTION.
U WAIT FOR 4 YRS FOR A 20% CORRECTION.
U WAIT FOR 10 YRS FOR A 30% CORRECTION
U WAIT FOR 30 YRS FOR A 40% CORRECTION
U WAIT FOR 100 YRS FOR A 50% CORRECITION.

THAT IS OF COURSE ....U RUN THE RISK OF MARKET GOING UP......UP.....AND UP B4 THE MARKET CORRECT LOH.....!!
THAT IS ALSO....THE RISK....THAT WHEN MARKET CORRECT....10% TO 20% IT IS STILL MAY BE STILL HIGHER....THAN U CHOSE TO WAIT FOR A CORRECTION TO GET IN LOH.....!!

WAITING FOR A MAJOR CORRECTION IS A PATIENT GAME.....!!
IF U WANT TO PLAY THIS WAY....CHOSE TO 2 YRS....A 15% CORRECTION TO GET IN LOH.....!!

AS FOR RAIDER ??.....RAIDER STILL PREFER MARGIN OF SAFETY INVESTMENT LOH.....!!
JUST GET IN WHEN THE STOCK....HAS GOOD MARGIN OF SAFETY.....WITHOUT LOOKING INTO THE MARKET LOH....!!

OF COURSE.....DURING MAJOR CORRECTION ALWAYS BUY MORE LOH.......!!!

THE REVERSE IS TRUE.....WHEN STOCK IS OVERVALUE.....MUCH MORE THAN MARGIN OF SAFETY....JUST SELL LOH....!!

Posted by WiseEye > 2014-04-23 23:40 | Report Abuse

Stockraider, I warmly welcome you to i3. Looks like you have shared many things in just a couple of days.

If you have come acrossed these companies, what's your take on Redtone and EAH?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:41 | Report Abuse

Three important investment principle of B Graham :

1) Look at stock as a business
2) Margin of safety concept
3) Good investor attitude and how to deal with Mr Market

Despite of this simple investment principle.....investors still act irrationally why leh ?
It is due to emotional element of fear & greed loh......!!
This result in foolish mistake loh......!!

Mastering behavior finance
The main cause of failure : Overconfidence, Over-reaction Bias, Loss Aversion, Mental accounting & following the crowd

Learn to manage the negative behavior u r in for a long term success loh......!!


GENERAL RAIDER MILITARY STRATEGY

"THE STRONGEST OF ALL ARMIES ARE THE ABILITY TO BALANCE TIME & PATIENCE"

THE SAME APPLIES TO INVESTMENT LOH......!!

U MUST HAVE FAITH FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT....!!

U MUST HAVE PATIENCE TO WAIT FOR RIGHT OPPORTUNITY TO STRIKE BIG LOH....!!

BCOS EMOTIONS ARE STRONGER THAN REASON......THE FEAR & GREED WILL MOVE STOCK PRICE FAR ABOVE OR BELOW ITS INTRINSIC VALUE MAH.....!!

WHEN PEOPLE ARE GREEDY OR SCARED THEY WILL OFTEN BUY & SELL STOCK AT FOOLISH HIGH AND LOW PRICES MAH...!!

U MUST BE INTELLIGENCE GUIDELINE & TRAINING TO AVOID THIS HUMAN MISTAKE

U MUST BE ABLE TO RECOGNISE OTHER PEOPLE'S MISTAKES AND BE ABLE TO PROFIT FOR THEM.

Posted by dragonking > 2014-04-23 23:42 | Report Abuse

cos future no MOS?

Posted by dragonking > 2014-04-23 23:42 | Report Abuse

but future good for hedging

Posted by leno > 2014-04-23 23:44 | Report Abuse

Super successful value investor should also invest in 4 areas
1. wealth
2. health
3. family and community
4. self

if u neglect your health, and famili .. tons of money also no use. What's point having money but get stroke. What's point healthy if got no money to buy food for family, or kids become drug addict or over-spoilt. If u have first 3 but u have black heart, like to cheat, lies and no manners also end up no good hor. Must balance-balance also ... shift priority when situation arise. Good health and happi famili also contribute to peace of mind to do share analysis.

Value investing is not easy. It only took a couple of minutes to grasp the concept but to master it take a lot of hard work. Some successful value investor will tend to forget how much work they have pour into to reach a certain level for many years. Some people refer this as Dunno wat u know ... where a lot of thinking and analysis done reflex-ly wihout the need of full awareness. And these person will tell u ... Ah ! Value investing is very easy. No need study accounting, no need do difficult maths, no need this and that.

Leno alredi beyond the phase dunno wat i know ... Leno is in level know wat i dunno wat i know ...

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:48 | Report Abuse

Is it harder to make monies from KLSE ?
Yes and No loh......!!

Yes....bcos.....!!
1) A lot stock had move up.....thus less bargains.
2) The potential gain from klse had narrowed considerably loh....!!

No....bcos....!!
1) Market more active....!!
2) Oversea market more stable mah....!!


For those....who adhere to margin of safety investment....the profit margin had reduced loh.....!!
But still can make monies over longer term....thru good selection

THE KEY IN MONEY MAKING IN KLSE....!!

1) STOCK SELECTION EITHER MARGIN OF SAFETY & GROWTH
2) PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE
3) LONG TERM


Although raider had been doing very well....for the past few yrs.....but raider forsee 2014 will be a very challenging year......mah.....!!

U can either make a lot....or.......break to a loss or underperformance loh.....!!

If u ask raider....biased to which side ?
Raider....will say bias to the make a lot side mah.....!!

Posted by dragonking > 2014-04-23 23:48 | Report Abuse

Agree LENO, complete personality - insan yang kamil (from my students day)

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:52 | Report Abuse

For an employee, their major income is his salary, hence he need to save inorder to build a nest egg.
It is difficult for him to leave his job and to do business to make alot of money.
The stock market offer an avenue for salaried men to do business indirectly with the luxury of not leaving his jobs at the same time help him to accumulate wealth thru the business.

Hence the best approach in investment is to consider share investment as a business.
Your friend/ or families who own business manage it for long term for more than 10 years or even for generations and make alot of money.
Why can't we own good long term fundamental shares = own business and hold it many years and grow our wealth like that ?, instead of looking into the screen buying/selling share for a quick buck .
If we adopt this formula then fundamental solid business, neglected, boring and low profile should bought to keep as they offer the best value as a ' business' as Peter Lnych advocated.
Only to sell your prize business = share, only when someone offer an attractive price !

TAKEAWAY!!.....STOCKMARKET.....IS A SUPERMARKET FOR VARIOUS BUSINESS....!!
BUY VIABLE SHARE..... LONG TERM MEANS DOING BUSINESS MAH......!!
SALARIED WORKER NO OPPORTUNITY TO DO BUSINESS CAN OWN SHARE AS AN AVENUE OF DOING BUSINESS
GOOD BUSINESS MUST HOLD LONG TERM......ONLY RELUCTANTLY SELL.....WHEN OFFER IS VERY ATTRACTIVE LOH.....!!

RAIDER WORD OF ADVISE,
FINALLY...MAKE .USE YOUR SKILL...SAY IF U R A PHARMACEUTICAL SALES REPRESENTATIVE.....THEN BETTER STICK TO MEDICAL STOCKS MAH.....!!
MAKE USE OF YOUR CORE COMPETENT & BUY ONLY WHEN THE SHARE IS TRADING AT MARGIN OF SAFETY PRICE LOH....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-23 23:58 | Report Abuse

Peter Lynch once said, “Investing without research is like playing stud poker and never looking at the cards.”

If you’re wary of doing hard work—of getting your hands dirty doing some research—then I don’t think investing is for you.

It’s not a game. Or a gamble.

I know people who complain that the market is “rigged” or that the “odds are stacked against you.” That you can’t win.

I disagree…!!!

IN FACT RAIDER SAY INVESTMENT IS ABOUT QUANTITATIVE (SENIOR ANALYST INVESTMENT ANALYSIS), QUALITATIVE RESEARCH (DONE BY OO9 INVESTIGATION TEAM TO CONFIRM THE FINDINGS) AND TUKANG TILIK.....TO GIVE U THE PSYCHOLOGICAL OOMPH AND CONFIDENCE TO INVEST BIG TO MAKE MONIES LOH......!!

On Wednesday, Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. (Nasdaq: SWHC) shot up 16%.

A week before that, Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) popped 11.25%.

OmniVision Technologies (Nasdaq: OVTI) shot up more than 13%.

From its close on Feb. 13 to the end of trading on Valentine’s Day, Cray (Nasdaq: CRAY) soared 39%.

And 2 days before Cray’s big move, Conversant (Nasdaq: CNVR) —formerly ValueClick—spiked 17%.

These were all one-day moves. Big single-day surges. Now, were investors in these companies just lucky? Did they just happen to be in the right place at the right time?

Was it merely chance?

Or is there a way to predict which companies are going to not only beat Wall Street expectations—but actually obliterate them?

I’ll let you in on something: Because of peculiar trends in their stock price after earnings releases, most of these companies I mentioned were in my Oxford Club trading service, Emerging Trends Trader.

Let’s look at a chart of Cray’s quarterly revenue:

It was estimated to make $300 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. On Feb. 13, the supercomputer maker reported $307 million…

Abercrombie & Fitch’s quarterly revenue chart looks similar to Cray’s:

But if you take a few extra moments—if you spend a little time digging—you start finding even more valuable pieces of information.

One of them: Since 2008, during the trading day following its fourth-quarter earnings release (including this year), shares of ValueClick/Conversant have gained double digits 4 times out of 6.

And only once in those 6 years did shares fall on its fourth-quarter report.

That’s a handy—and profitable—piece of information, uncovered by a bit of research, to have in your back pocket. And if you’re willing to dig even deeper, you’ll discover that there are real reasons why these pops happen.

It’s also handy to know that, since 2008, shares of Conversant have never risen following the company’s second-quarter release.

[color=]Investing isn’t all gut feelings, whims and trying to hopefully channel “the Midas touch.”

It’s about research.

IT IS ABOUT DISCOVERING MARGIN OF SAFETY.....IT IS ABOUT INDENTIFYING SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS AND IT IS ABOUT INDENTIFYING GROWTH BUSINESS LOH......!!

It’s about taking the time to understand what moves the shares of the companies you are investing in and why… Knowing where the trouble spots are… Understanding when the best time to buy is…

That’s how you make money investing.

Otherwise, save yourself the frustration and just buy lottery tickets.

WITHOUT DOING.....THIS ESSENTIAL GROUNDWORK.....U HAVE NO COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE AT ALL.....!!
THIS MEANS....IF U DO NOT LOOK AT THE CARDS... CAREFULLY & ANALYSING AND POSITIONING TO YOUR ADVANTAGE .....THEN U MUST AS WELL GO AND GAMBLE LOH......!!!

THE ABOVE ARTICLE.....EMPHASIS....U NEED TO DO RESEARCH....AND ESTABLISH THE VALUE OF YOUR INVESTMENT....!!
IT IS ALSO HIGHLIGHT.....THERE IS A TENDENCY......OF INVESTOR WHO THINK......THEY ARE INVESTING BUT IN FACT GAMBLING LOH.......!!

SO IF U HAVE MASTER VALUATION.....U R CONSIDER.....A GOOD INVESTOR......BUT U R STILL NOT A COMPLETE MASTER INVESTOR LOH.....!! AS A MASTER.....RAIDER SAY U ONLY 70% COMPLETE... IF U MASTER FUNDAMENTAL INVESTMENT....!!

THIS IS BCOS.....70% TO 80% OF TODAYS TRADE ARE DONE BY GAMBLERS, TRADERS AND SPECULATORS AND ONLY 20% IS FROM TRUE VALUE INVESTOR MAH......!!

THIS MEAN.....TO PERFECT YOUR REMAINING SKILL.....AS A MASTER IN STOCKMARKET.....U NEED TO ACQUIRE....THE BALANCE SKILL...THAT IS GAMBLING LOH.....!!

WHAT R THE GAMBLING GAME GOOD FOR STOCKMARKET PLAYERS LEH ?

THERE ARE;
1) POKER
2)HORSE RACING
3) BRIDGE
4) MAHJONG

WARREN BUFFET IS A GOOD BRIDGE PLAYER.....!!
LI KA SHING....IS A GOOD HORSE RACING PLAYER....!!
CARL ICAHN...IS A GOOD POKER PLAYER.......!!
STANLEY HO...CAN PLAY MAHJONG VELI WELL LOH....!!

TRY TO MASTER SOME OF THE GAMBLING ART SKILL TOO TO COMPLETE YOUR MASTERSHIP MAH.....!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:05 | Report Abuse

Raider the biggest bull......in investlah......is sharing.....the downturn investment strategy loh......!!

GENERALLY IN DOWNTURN.......IS AN OPPORTUNITY LOH.....!!
BESIDE.....U BUY INTO MARGIN OF SAFETY.....U ALSO BENEFIT FROM MARKET RERATING LOH.....!!

1) SLOWLY ACCUMULATE THE MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCK WHICH HAVE STRONG BALANCE SHEET , PAYING DIVIDEND AND REASONABLY ATTRACTIVE PE LOH.....!!
2) WHEN MARKET SELLOFF QUICKLY 4-5% PA.....BE MORE AGGRESSIVE BUY MORE LOH.....!!
3) IF THE BAD NEWS AT THE PEAK AND NEWS IS STILL HAPPENING......BUT THE MARKET DO NOT GO DOWN ANYMORE ......U R DUE FOR A REBOUND.

PLS NOTE ITEM 3 IS FOR THE SPECULATOR & TRADER.....FOR VALUE INVESTOR....PLS BUY & HOLD TO YOUR VALUABLE UNDERVALUE STOCKS....A FEW % GAIN........IS NOT ATTRACTIVE TO YOUR LONG TERM GAIN & POSITION MAH......!!


Warren Buffett spent three hours answering questions live on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday morning.

After a Buffett marathon, we usually would look at his advice on what investors should do. This time, it's five key lessons on what investors shouldn't do:


1. Don't let world events (like what's happening in Ukraine) affect your investing decisions.

Buffett said even if he knew a big war was unavoidable, "I will still be buying stock. You're going to invest your money in something over time. The one thing you can be sure of is if we went into some very major war, the value of money would go down. ... That's happened in virtually every war that I'm aware of. ... The last thing you want to do is hold money during a war. You might want to own a farm, you might want to own an apartment house, you might want to own securities. During World War II the stock market advanced. The stock market is going to advance over time."

2. Don't feel bad when stocks go down

On a day that global stocks markets were reeling from worries that the Ukraine situation could lead to war, Buffett said, "When I got up this morning I actually looked at a stock on the computer, on the trades in London, that we're buying and it's down and I felt good. ... We were buying it on Friday and it's cheaper this morning and that's good news." Will he buy more? "Absolutely."

3. Don't think you have to be an expert to profit from stocks

"The stock market just offers you so many opportunities, thousands and thousands of different businesses. You don't have to be an expert on every one of them. You don't need to be an expert on 10 percent of them even. You just have to have some conviction that either a given company, or a group of companies ... are likely to make more money five or 10 or 20 years from now than they're earning now. And that is not a difficult decision to come to."

And if you have no expertise at all, Buffett recommends a low-cost index fund that tracks the S&P 500 (^GSPC). "Keeping costs to a minimum is enormously important in investing. ... If you're in effect paying out 1 or 2 percent annually of your portfolio, that's a big, big tax that you don't have to pay."

4. Don't go for the quick profit

Asked if "activist investors" are really acting in the best interest of targeted companies and their shareholders, Buffett replied, "Generally speaking, they are interested in making a quick profit and there's no law against making quick profits. But our whole attitude in our own business and what we like to see with the businesses we own stock in is we want to run them for the people who are going to stay in rather than the people who are going to get out. At any given time, you can make more money, usually, selling the company. ... The answer isn't to sell the company. The answer is to keep running the company well. ... I could do certain things to jiggle up the price of Berkshire in the short run. It would not be good for the company over five or 10 years."

5. Don't put your money into bitcoins for the long run.

"It's not a currency. It does not meet the test of a currency. I wouldn't be surprised if it's not around in 10 or 20 years. ... It is not a durable means of exchange. It's not a store of value. ... It's been a speculative-a very speculative-kind of Buck Rogers-type thing, and people buy and sell them because they hope they go up or down just like they did with tulip bulbs a long time ago."

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:07 | Report Abuse

The Wall Street Journal's Jason Zweig shares his unique perspective on buy and hold investing, concluding that one should look at it differently.
THE CORRECT BUSINESS MODEL FOR ALL VALUE INVESTOR IS BUY & HOLD.....!!
YES BUY WHEN UNDERVALUE & SELL IT IS OVERVALUE.......!!
A CORRECT BUSINESS ADVISE BY BEN GRAHAM INTELLIGENT INVESTOR.

Is buy and hold dead?
I don't think it is right.
That is exactly what people say right before buy and hold comes back to life.

IT IS PEOPLE WHO DO NOT DO PROPER HOMEWORK & DUE DILIGENCE THAT SUFFER FROM BUY HOLD SYNDROME LOH....!!
GENERALLY U BUY THE STOCK WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY AND WITH SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS AND BALANCE SHEET.
BUT INSTEAD PEOPLE END UP:
1) BUYING STOCK WITH NO MARGIN OF SAFETY INCLUDING BLUECHIPS BCOS OF ENTHUASISM AND FALSE BELIEVE
2) BUYING INTO STOCK WITH DETERIORATING FUNDAMENTAL & POOR BALANCE SHEET

THIS PEOPLE EXPOSE THEMSELVES TO UNWARRANTED RISK LOH...!!

Nobody says that when the Dow was over 14,000 when buy and holding was a dangerous idea.
They only started saying this when the Dow was nearer 8,000.
But it is cheap now and it is inconceivable that buy and hold is a bad idea at Dow 8,000 than at Dow 14,000.

DON LOOK INTO INDEX BCOS.....IT WILL ONLY TELL U THE MARCRO THING MAH.....!!
U NEED TO STUDY THE INDIVIDUAL STOCKS & ITS BUSINESS AND TO DO A PROPER VALUATION

What about the idea of the market being in a long term bear market that could go on for years, like from 1966 to 1982?
Anytime you buy, it is going to take you years to get back to where you were and people should invest more actively.
We may enter at a protracted period when the returns from the market are below average, that doesn't mean that more active trading in and out of stocks are going to increase your returns.
Though the trading costs are lower now than before, the costs are still real.
If you can buy and hold through a protracted period of low returns, the flip side to this is, you are buying at lower market valuation than before.
People who bought and held from 1966 to 1982, or from 1929 to 1940s and 1950s, did quite well.
It was the people who only held who suffered.
If you are going to retire, you had a big problem.
But if you are younger, buying and holding is a spectacular idea.

OF COURSE IF U ARE YOUNG ....HOLDING A STOCK FOR 20 YRS....USING THE RIGHT FORMULA WILL GIVE U GREAT RETURN AS CONFIRM BY W BUFFET LOH....!!
BUT IF U R OLD OR NOT THAT YOUNG.....DO NOT DESPAIR !! THERE IS STILL LIGHT IN THE TUNNEL LOH...!! U ADOPT B GRAHAM....MARGIN OF SAFETY...AND INVEST MEDIUM TERM ABOUT 3 YRS....YOUR RETURN IS ASTONISHING TOO....!!
THIS IS PROVEN & CONFIRMED BY RAIDER NAPSHOT 40 LOH......!!
THE TECH IS ALL HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS THREAD MAH.....!!

But when people said to buy and hold, they do not mean, buy once and then do not put another dime in, and wait for it to go up.
They mean buying steadily, not trying to decide where you think the bottom has bottomed, but keep buying at lower prices regularly.
Maybe we should not talk about investing.
Instead use the term savings.
If you think of putting money into the financial market in the form of savings, you don't expect to get your returns right away.
You expect to get it over time and certainly that tricks people up.
Certainly, the returns had been terrible recently and if it is going to pay off, you must give it time.

FIND DISCIPLINE....PUT ASIDE A REGULAR SAVINGS FOR INVESTMENT IN THE STOCK MARKET FOR THOSE WHO DO NOT OWN BUSINESS...!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:10 | Report Abuse

STRATEGY to buy CONCENTRATE & FOCUS

Actually Raider napshot 40 is just an index portfolio loh.......!!
U can buy equal amount on all component stocks or equal units of the stocks......if u do that u create a " RAIDER INDEX STOCK LOH" like an ETF fund loh.......!!

But some people ask....why raider don just focus on 10 stocks ?
By concentrating.....can make more monies whoH.......!!!

1)Yes SAY raider.....u can loh......!! In fact raider is concentrating too loh.......!!
But....u still need to do R&D......to see which stocks u r most comfortable with mah......but in order to select the best stocks....u still need to select from the pool of cream good stocks in napshot 40.......!!!

Some people....ask.....why just select 10 stocks.....from the stock exchange....instead FROM Napshot 40 ?
If select....from the stockexchange......without going thru....a probation period tech...like raider within.....napshot 40.....how confident r u ?

If u select....within a pool of napshot....u already done R&D....it is time tested & proven......U CAN BE CONFIDENT TO BUY BIG & FOCUS MAH.....!!

2)The other advantage is if u have a list of stocks as much as possible......the probability of u thinking advantage of Mr Market.....is much higher at anyone time loh.......!!
Taking advantage of MR market is recommended by B Graham loh.....!!

JUST IMAGINE U HAVE A BEST OF BOTH WORLD PORTFOLIO......!!

1) A PORTFOLIO THAT ALLOW U TO FOCUS & CONCENTRATE YOUR INVESTMENT TO MAXIMISE YOUR GAIN

2) A PORTFOLIO CONSISTING OF MARGIN OF SAFETY STOCKS......READY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MR MARKET.....WHENEVER OPPORTUNITY ARISE....!!

IT is easier.....to follow....value investment the B Graham where compare to W Buffet way loh...!!

Why leh ?

1) W buffet.....buying quality stocks.....normally quite popular & fairly and rightly value loh.....!! There is not much or no margin of safety until the Growth catch up loh.....!! It is for the aunties, uncles & widower where any return above the fixed deposits for them loh.....!!
2) W Buffet....make his purchase only when.....these companies undergoes temporary difficulties or during market crisis or panic....!! How many amateurs have the guts & skills to benefit from this situation ?
3) W Buffet....adopt a fat pitch theory.....that he only swing.....when he see....margin of safety......in bluechips...that is very rare & happen once in 3 to 5 yrs cycle....How many amateur have the patient, discipline and skill to to that ?

If u employ GRAHAM method.....u got higher probability to benefit from market folly loh......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:12 | Report Abuse

Warren Buffett Quotes

"I always attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful. "
THIS IS CONTRAIAN APPROACH WHICH IS USEFUL FOR VALUE INVESTMENT

"When a brilliant management tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact." THIS MEANS THE BUSINESS FUNDAMENTAL IS MORE IMPORTANT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE QUALITY OF MANAGEMENT. THATS WHY SOME BUSINESS LIKE AIRLINE INDUSTRY U MUST AVOID LOH.....!!

"When you combine ignorance with debt, you get some pretty interesting results." AVOID LEVERAGE ADVICE

"Wide diversification is only required when investors don’t understand what they’re doing." TRY TO FOCUS YOUR BUSINESS LOH.....!!

"My favorite holding period is forever." IF U STUMBLE INTO A QUALITY BUSINESS....HOLD IT LONG TERM LOH..!

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."....DO NOT LOOK INTO PRICE FLUCTUATION...LOOK INTO THE VALUE OF THE BUSINESS LOH.....!!

"There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult." GO FOR BUSINESS THAT IS EASY TO UNDERSTAND.

"Time is the friend of the great company, and the enemy of the mediocre." GOOD COMPANY HAS TIME ADVANTAGE BUT BAD COMPANY SUFFER MORE OVERTIME....!!
"Value is what you get."

"We believe that calling institutions that actively trade, 'investors,' is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a 'romantic.' "....TRADING IS NOT YOUR CUP OF TEA

"I enjoy the process much more than the proceeds."..LEARN FROM EVERY INVESTMENT U DEAL WITH

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." IF U GET GOOD COMPANY AT REASONABLE PRICE BUY LOH....!! BUT NOT PE 30X LOH....!!

"Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly instead of participating in it."
JUST TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MR MARKET AND NOT BEING TAKING ADVANTAGE OF BY HIM.

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." A GOOD INVESTMENT CAN BE ONLY BE TIME TESTED OVER TIME LOH....!!

"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, the energy devoted to changing vessels is less daunting than the energy devoted to fixing consist leaks." IF U MAKE A MISTAKE...OR U FIND FLAWS....SELL....AND LOOK FOR A BETTER ONE LOH......INSTEAD OF WASTING TIME LOH.....!!

"Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." U MAKE A BUILD SUCCESS OVER TIME....BCOS U TAKE ACTION EARLY LOH....!!

"The business schools reward difficult complex behavior more than simple behavior, but simple behavior is more effective.".....DON TRY TO COMPLICATE....!! SIMPLIFY MORE EFFECTIVE.....!!

"It's better to associate with people better than you. Pick out people whose behavior is better than yours and you'll soon drift in that direction." LEARN LOH.....LIKE FROM SENIOR ANALYST

"In business, the windshield is always dirtier than the rearview mirror."....THE FRONT END OF BUSINESS IS MORE DIFFICULT

"Your reputation is like fine china, it takes 20 years to acquire and ten seconds to destroy." PROTECT UR VALUABLE REPUTATION

"Risk presents itself when you don’t know what you're doing." IF U KNOW....HOW TO INVEST....THERE IS NO RISK......!!

"Rule Number one: Never lose money. Rule Number two: Don’t forget Rule Number one." BE RISK ADVERSE OR DEFENSIVE 1ST LOH....!!

"I never attempt to make money on the day to day change in the stock market. In fact, I purposely buy on the assumption that it’ll close tomorrow and not reopen for five years." BUY STOCK FOR LONG TERM

"If a business does well, the stock will always follow.".....STOCK IS A WEIGHING MACHINE IN LONG TERM

"In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497."....OVER LONGER TIME.....THE DIRECTION OF STOCKMARKET IS UP.

"A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thinking." DON FOLLOW THE CROWD

"Chains of habit are too light to feel until they’re too heavy to break."....HOLD ON TO GOOD HABIT & DUMP THE BAD

"Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction."....LEVERAGE IS DANGEROUS

"I don't like to jump over 7-foot bars. Instead, I look for 1-foot bars that I can step over." LOOK FOR SIMPLE...DECISION MAKING TOOLS.

Posted by nicholasnwh90 > 2014-04-24 00:16 | Report Abuse

Sephiroth and Stockraider, I like your style of investing. Value investors will definitely do better than traders in the long run, also less worries as dont need to monitor the market all the time ma! Look up to you two!!!

Lots to learn from you two sifu!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:19 | Report Abuse

Re: RAIDER IS THE BIGGEST BULL IN INVESTLAH LOH!

« Reply #7865 on: February 27, 2014, 06:45:51 PM »
Reply with quoteQuote

Raider special advise to retiree......!!

YES Mr Retiree......raider understand your plight......return from fixed deposits are low....about 3% pa whereas cost of living are high....!!

So how....a retired person.....keep up ?

The answer is to get higher return at low risk.....!!

SO WHAT IS SAFE & GOT BETTER RETURN ?
THE ANSWER IS TO BUY INTO CASH BOX WITH BIG DISCOUNT & MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH......!!

RAIDER ADVISE U THE FOLLOWING LOH.....!!

OSK RM 1.61.......FAIR VALUE RM 2.60......DIVIDEND YIELD ABOUT 4.5% PA.....U BUY/HOLD AND WAIT.

HDBS RM 3.90....FAIR VALUE RM 5.10.....GET BACK CASH BETWEEN RM 2.40/ 2.50 PER SHARE THRU CASH REPAYENT......RAIDER RECOMMEND U BUY HOLD & WAIT LOH.....!!

ALL THE STOCK ABOVE GOT MARGIN OF SAFETY

WHY NOT QUALITY BLUECHIPS ?
NOT AT THE MOMENT.....MOST OVERVALUE LIKE NESTLE & PET DAGANG.....TRADING AT PE ABOVE 30X....WITH DIVIDEND YIELD 3% PA.
NO MARGIN OF SAFETY LOH.....!! SOME MORE RETIREE CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE MAH......!!


IN SUMMARY....!

KEEP TO YOUR CORE COMPETENCE
BUY AT REASONABLE PRICE WITH PREFERABLE VALUE WITH MARGIN OF SAFETY
BUY INTO STOCK THAT SHOWS SUSTAINABLE EARNINGS & GROWTH AND PROSPECT
BUY HOLD FOR LONG TERM ON STOCK THAT SHOWS SUSTAINABLE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
BE PATIENT & DISCIPLINE
DO NOT WORRY ABOUT DAILY STOCK QUOTATION & MACRO ECONOMICS HEADLINE.

YES....SUCCESSFUL INVESTMENT IS THAT SIMPLE, ANYONE CAN DO IT TOO......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:27 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:34 | Report Abuse

RAIDER ULTIMATE SIFU.....B GRAHAM.....ADVISE US TO UNDERSTAND THE CHARACTER OF MR MARKET IN ORDER TO BE SUCCESSFUL LOH......!!
U JUST NEED TO UNDERSTAND.....MR MARKET....BEHAVIOR & KNOW HOW TO CALCULATE INTRINSIC VALUE....IN ORDER TO BE SUCCESSFUL LOH.......!!

IF MR MARKET......OFFER A VERY HIGH PRICE.....FAR BEYOND THE INTRINSIC VALUE.....U SELL LOH.....!!
IF MR MARKET PANIC & PESSIMISTIC......AND DUMP HIS SHARE AT AT ALL COST....WHERE IT IS FAR BELOW MARGIN OF SAFETY... U TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY & BUY FROM HIM LOH....!!

THIS IS HOW U MAKE MONIES......CONSISTENTLY LOH......!!

Posted by stockraider > 2014-04-24 00:38 | Report Abuse

spent a lot of time in 2013 writing about simple finance rules. Here are five of my favorites.

1. Wealth takes time.
Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's investing partner, put it best: "You don't have to be brilliant, only a little bit wiser than the other guys, on average, for a long, long time."

Warren Buffett is a great investor, but what makes him rich is that he's been a great investor for seven decades. Of his current $60 billion net worth, $59.7 billion was added after his 50th birthday, and $57 billion came after his 60th. If Buffett started saving in his 30s and retired in his 60s, you would have never heard of him. His skill is investing, but his secret is time.

Understanding the value of time is the most important lesson in all of finance. The single best thing we can do to improve the financial state of Americans is encourage people to save from as early an age as possible.

2. Most financial problems are caused by debt.

I have a family friend who earned several hundred thousand dollars a year as a specialist in an advanced field. He went bankrupt a few years ago and will probably need to work for the rest of his life. I know another who never earned more than $50,000 a year but retired comfortably on his own terms.

The only real difference between these two friends is that one used debt to live beyond his means while the other avoided it and accepted a realistic standard of living.

Just as saving gives you options in the future, debt takes options away. Not having the option of flexibility is the root of most financial problems. You can be a brilliant worker (or investor) and find yourself in financial ruin if you don't respect the power of debt. Income, wealth, and standard of living aren't as correlated as people think.

3. Forecasting market returns is close to impossible. Worse, it's dangerous.

A stock's future returns will equal its dividend yield, plus its earnings growth, plus or minus changes in valuations (earnings multiples). That's really all there is to it.

Dividends and earnings growth for many companies can be reasonably projected.
But what about the change in valuations? There's no way we could possibly know that.

Stock market valuations reflect people's feelings about the future, swinging between optimism and fear. And there's just no way to know what people are going to think about the future in the future. How could you?

If someone said, "I think most people will be in a 9.26% better mood in the year 2024," we'd call them delusional. When someone does the same thing by projecting 10-year market returns, we call them Wall Street analysts.

We know a group of high-quality companies will build wealth for their shareholders over time. But we can never be specific when trying to guess what the stock market might do going forward. Assuming we can predict exactly what stocks will do in the future makes us blind to risk and uncertainty. Coming to terms with an unpredictable future forces us to be nimble and prepared. You can guess which group does better.

GIVEN IT IS DIFFICULT TO PROJECT STOCK VALUATION.....RAIDER ALWAYS USE 4 TIER VALUATION FOR STOCKS....PE, NTA PER SHARE, CASHFLOW PER SHARE AND DIVIDEND PER SHARE AT THE SAME TIME....PLS CHECK THE BALANCE SHEET TO ENSURE IT IS SOUND.....!!