Rationale for report: 12th Malaysia Plan (2021–2025)

Highlights

A Prosperous, Inclusive, Sustainable Malaysia with RM400bil allocation

• 3 themes, 4 catalytic policy enablers and 14 game changers. The three themes for the 12th Malaysia Plan (12MP) are resetting the economy; strengthening security, wellbeing and inclusivity; and advancing sustainability. Altogether, there are eight game changers to achieve these themes. There are also four catalytic policy enablers and these are developing future talent; accelerating technology adoption and innovation; enhancing connectivity and transport infrastructure; and strengthening the public service. These will be supported by six game-changing initiatives. A total of RM400bil was allocated for development expenditure. However, details on the breakdown are not available at this juncture. For comparison, RM260bil was allocated for the 11MP (RM248bil spent).

Our view: 12MP to have minimal short-term impact on equity market

• We believe that details on the allocation for each sector will only be spelt out in Budget 2022 when the budget is tabled on 29 October. Nevertheless, it is long-term positive to Malaysia equity market as it promotes higher income per capita and reduces inequalities. The emphasis on environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) under Game Changer 8 (Embracing The Circular Economy) is an encouraging sign that the government is moving in the right direction in the area of sustainability. Both the public and private sectors are encouraged to embrace the principles of ESG and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in their operations.

• We maintain our end-2021 FBMKLCI target of 1,643 points. We are also maintaining our earnings estimates for all companies under our coverage.

• Our top 10 picks remain. These include Maybank, Tenaga Nasional, CIMB Group, Sime Darby Plantation, Telekom Malaysia, RHB Bank, Westports, Dialog Group, Sunway and Media Prima.

Impact on Sectors

• For now, we see minimal near-term impact from the 12MP on most of the sectors that we cover. This is understandable given the focus and implementation of the 12MP which are spread over 5 years. Having said that, there are three sectors that will see more action (although the impact is not significant) as highlighted below.

• Construction. For mega public infrastructure projects, the focus is on completing ongoing projects (in phases to ensure fiscal sustainability) such as the Klang Valley Double Tracking (Phase 1), Gemas–Johor Bahru Double Tracking, East Coast Rail Link, Central Spine Road, Johor Bahru–Singapore Rapid Transit System, Pan Borneo Highway and Sarawak–Sabah Link Road. A new funding model for mega infrastructure projects "Public Private Partnership 3.0" has been introduced and projects to be implemented under this model shall be revealed in mid-2022. We believe that this could indicate that the MRT3 project (which is likely to fall under this category) may be delayed to 2022 from 2021.

• Property. Another 500,000 affordable homes will be built by 2025 to improve the liveability of target groups. On top of current initiatives like Rumah Mesra Rakyat, Residensi Wilayah (RUMAWIP) and Program Perumahan Rakyat, stricter measures such as introducing ceiling prices on secondary affordable homes and limiting the purchase to 1 unit for 1 eligible citizen will be introduced to ensure adequate supply of affordable housing for the target groups. While the measures are new, the focus on affordable home has been there for quite some time, hence it is neutral to the sector.

• Telecommunication. The government plans to accelerate digital connectivity by introducing telecommunication services as a public utility under Uniform Building by-laws, continuing the National Digital Infrastructure Plan (Jendela), encouraging more private sector infrastructure investment and expanding access for students via a private-public partnership approach. This will be positive for fibre infrastructure operators such as Telekom Malaysia and Time dotCom.

Source: AmInvest Research - 28 Sept 2021