I don't know if we must believe in luck or else can we explain the success of those we don't like? 

Recently, I mentioned about reversal, but I on don't know whether we will going to have inflation or deflation sooner. I don't know interest rates will rise or decrease in the near future. More significantly, I'd very carefully about trusting my pennies to any person or into an entity, except anything that is on a multi year bottom assets and technology sectors.

The complexity of the world-wide economy has been increased by monetary and fiscal government intervention everywhere. There is no historical example to which you can point and say what happened in the past and this time will just look like that. 

1. Lower rates don't mean anything if borrowers can't obtain loans in the real world. 

I don't know what really matters about interest rate issues. With the rate at historic lows, any increase in rates has a modest impact on qualified borrowers. If the half of percentage points kills the deal, it was a deal that should be killed anyway. Its too marginal to be a sound deal. 

2. Liquidity is more important to all types of assets. 

I am more worried about liquidity than the interest rates. What matters most is the financial system maintains sufficient liquidity, reasonably priced credits and availability of mortgage money. I don't know what is the consequences of lack of liquidity at this fragile moment compared to a small hike in interest rates .

3. If you believe stocks is cheap, stop reading this column. 

Well, never mind number 3, but here is more, before I go further, if you believe that the stocks are cheap and the economy is doing well. Stop reading now.This column is not for you. 

I don't know just when that will be. But if you believe that the most of the stocks, (except energy based assets) are expensive and economic time bomb are ticking because of unprecedented intervention by governments and central banks, then we share and give.

4. When was the last time every major economy is extremely over-stimulated? 

It's incredibly difficult to sit on cash while everyone is making money around me. After all I don't know how much this steroid madden bull has left in him. Riding this bull is difficult because I don't know if the market is overvalued and if anyone holding a lot of overpriced assets (especially speculative stocks) then I have no other option but to hope greater fools will keep hopping on the bull and drive the stock prices higher. 

5. Dont look in the mirror. 

More importantly, you have to believe that you are smarter than the other fools, and you know what will happen next, you will be able to hop off faster before them. Once more, I don't know how many able to manage this, good luck with that. After all, the one looking for another greater fool will eventually find that fool by looking at the mirror.

6. If you insist, good luck.

The economy has been a never ending episodes of falsehoods and lies, not truths. Only if you insist you really know what will happen next, and you are not lying, then I accept that you know perfectly what the future holds.But don't look at the mirror.

It is unwise to be too sure about one's own intellectual ability. On another perspective, it's healthy to be reminded to be a little humble or a step further;

Then better pretend to say, " you don't know "