股海無涯
【解析】FACBIND: 5塊錢換10塊錢鈔票的交易
股海無涯
Publish date: Tue, 26 Aug 2014, 02:29 AM
股海無涯
0 97
依般若波羅蜜多故 心無罣礙 無罣礙故 無有恐怖 遠離顛倒夢想 究竟涅槃
投資如修行，心态很重要。
【股海无涯】投資事件簿，
記錄投資路上的是非成敗
http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
投資如修行，心态很重要。
【股海无涯】投資事件簿，
記錄投資路上的是非成敗
http://e-thg.blogspot.com/
https://www.facebook.com/ethgrowth
5塊錢換10塊錢鈔票的交易， 只有股市里會出現。
FACBIND昨天在FB上好像看到有人提到， 昨晚就下載了2000年到現在的年報， 還有論壇上這幾年的重大新聞都大致上看了一遍。
FACBIND這之前完全不了解其業務， 可是年報讀起來意外的容易了解。 因為本身也是在鋼鐵這一行， 2005 &2008， 還有近幾年鋼鐵業面對的挑戰， 比一般人更清楚。
近兩年積極脫手虧損業務， 基本上除了Dream Land 床褥和白鋼管業務， 其他不鏽鋼分條（slitting)&cut to length和大部分相關業務都已出售。
股價：Rm 1.37
CASH： 148.8M
no of share : 84M
CASH/SHARE ：Rm 1.77
NAPS: RM 2.51
股價比持有現金低
NAPS是股價的接近一倍。
能夠以116m (1.37x85m share)
購得手上有148m現金的公司，
價值 5.9m的地皮, 19m附屬公司 , 30m股票, 16m存貨,17m 應收賬款等
免費。
我并不太喜歡單純的按NTA來選股， 構成NTA的部分可以很複雜。
比如，
存貨實際價值和賬面估算的偏差，
土地或者建築何時能出售或釋放價值遙遙無期，
長期虧損對NTA的逐漸消耗，等等。。。
可是Cash卻另當別論。
FACBIND的損益表很單純。
出售了大部分業務之後， 除了KCB以附加股償還RM37683036抵消債務的股份， 未收回賬款也只有17m， 沒有負債， 沒有任何複雜的項目。
那問題來了，
管理層要如何運用這筆1.48億的現金？
不知道，不清楚， 不了解。
猜測很多， 大家都期待派發股息， 但估計短期內不太可能。
如果能派發高額股息， 小股東們當然皆大歡喜， 不過大股東是否如此慷慨， 還是不得而知。
以股東結構來說， 丹斯里曾立強佔了30%的股份。 其他小股東還是有影響重大決策的能力。
嚴重影響股東利益的決策應該不可能出現。
那嚴重的虧損呢？
在短期內應該不太可能， 虧損業務基本售出， 剩下的dreamland床褥和白鋼業務基本還有盈利能力， 也許會再出現小額虧損， 不過影響不大。
148m， 存在銀行以4%利息來算， 一年也有近6百萬（僅Q3FY14, 利息就有3m)
不管發股息， 或者投入新行業，買進其他公司的股份， 只要不是太不合理的投資決策， 相信都能對股價帶來提升。
沒有一個生意人會希望把錢虧掉。 據說丹斯里曾立強在柬埔寨有賭場業務， 曾經擔任過洪森首相的經濟顧問（賭場是事實，其他消息不太確定真實性）， 有這樣的實力與背景要為1.48億的現金早一個合理的投資， 相信不是太困難的事情。
小結：
這是我最短的投資決定， 只用了一個晚上了解年報與新聞， 今天一早就買了10000股。
5塊錢換10塊錢的鈔票，這交易幾乎沒風險。
決定的可能又點倉促， 有什麼錯誤的地方歡迎大家指教， 好讓我有機會股海回頭。
目標是 RM 1.80 股價>CASH PER SHARE 1.77
*純屬個人分析記錄， 無買賣建議， 有數據與分析上的錯誤， 煩請多多指教
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3 people like this. Showing 19 of 19 comments
They cash pile was like that for over a year already. Many bought expecting a special dividend, but only to see the cash used to support their bleeding associate company Karambunai.
2014-08-26 09:11
Cash rich company, but meaningless unless they distribute some of the cash to shareholders or use it to invest in new biz.
Using the cash to support bleeding Karambunai is not putting the cash in good use.
2014-08-26 09:13
They have never used cash to support Karambunai directly. Although the 6% stake was acquired as part of debt settlement by Karambunai in OCT 2013, the debt was a result of Karambunai acquiring FACBIND's property-developer subsidiary back in OCT 2008.
2014-08-26 09:52
as a comman sense, normal businessman will not keep money in a bank forever(inflation), the worry will be they going to share it((dividend), used it( in good investment) or borrow it( to losing association/sister company)... lets wait and see
2014-08-26 11:07
most likely they will use to buy more KBunai share, or lend to KBnai, it is undervalued for a reason.
2014-08-26 11:50
yea would make sense if they sell their steel business and invest in some business that can generate higher ROE, or the next best decision is return as dividend to shareholders.
2014-08-26 12:18
FACB is a substantial shareholder of Kbunai, if realy FACB is using the cash pile to bailout Kbunai, how come we do not see Kbunai any changes of shareholding? The debt settlement with Kbunai share is actually a good deal to FACB, as Kbunai is obviously not able to pay back the debt, do you want to treat it as bad debt? Or get something back which you can at least cash it on the market?
To Steven and speakup, if you have any evidence that FACB is lending money or supporting Kbunai with the company cash, show it to us but not keep on telling something based on your guessing only.
2014-08-26 12:39
This is the counter that makes yr investment grows. You needless to hv sleepless night when market is bad. Cash is more the than market price.
2014-08-26 13:01
Fair? It is a compliance issue man. If I have company, 1 is my own another is listed, I keep on use money from listed to lend to my own company and don't want pay back anything, at the end, I said ok. Pay your debts with maybe only 5% of my own small company. You get nothing out of it ok! There are much more counters similar to invest, why risk your money with this?? ILB,PMCORP all are better.
2014-08-26 13:32
And last year General Meeting, the FACBIND major shareholders kena goreng by minority, and they told minority, don't like can sell, dun give a damn. Hello, with this kind of lansi type management, you think you minority can get anything out of them? If people said VT crook, this company is SHIT, nothing but shit.
2014-08-26 13:34
VT also know how to take care about shareholders, give premium when privatise. This company? I only want to PUI
2014-08-26 13:35
Those cash... nice to see but cannot touch, like this no use... Value trap... Don't know when only release the value... incur opportunity cost for the capital invested...
2014-08-26 13:42
Raider independent view on facb is that this company has corporate governance problem.
That's why the nta Rm 2.60 & cash equivalent is more than Rm 1.70 per share compare to share price Rm 1.30 loh.....!!
But can u profit for this scenario ? The answer is yes....!!
Buy only it is dirt cheap loh.....!!
2014-08-26 14:07
who know more about the shareholder power of control in FACBIND? Dan Sri CLK only owned 30%, any unreason action possible stop by other 70%?
2014-08-26 15:05
well this make the AGM very important to attend, we shall find out what is the company plan on this cash pile. If the company is not able to give me a satisfy answer I will sell immediately without any hesitation. But I had collected FACB in earlier stage which make this a gaining counter in my portfolio, will see how far it can go with this healthy balance sheet.
2014-08-27 11:33
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没有风险？the using facbind to aupport kbunai shares, so is this risk?
2014-08-26 07:47