Icon8888 Gossips About Stocks
(Icon) Global Oriental Bhd (10) - Update On Damen Project
I first visited Damen's project site 6 months ago (on 21 April 2014).
Today I paid another visit to get update on work progress.
(Artist illustration)
(Damen 6 months ago)
(Damen today, front view)
(Damen today, front view)
(Damen today, side view)
(Damen today, back view)
(Damen today, back view. SOHO under construction)
Comments :-
The recent market correction saw a lot of people panicking, pushing GOB share price down to 80 sen (had since recovered to 93 sen at the time of writing).
But if you walk away from your computer screen and visit the project site, you will notice that NOTHING has changed at all. GOB is still very much alive and kicking. While those weak hearted shareholders dumped shares like the world is going to end tomorrow, GOB is busy doing the piling, laying the bricks and pouring cement for Damen. The only thing that has changed is people's emotion. One day they are super bullish, the other day they freaked out and want to jump off the building.
How silly.
Today, when I stood in front of the half finished Damen, I didn't see steel bars, cements, sands or concrete structure. All I saw is RM500 million cash stashed up in front of me (the estimated market value of the mall). This RM500 million will appear in GOB's account next year, when the retail units are opened and shopping crowd starts pouring in.
Just imagine what it will do to GOB share price when that happens.
(Stash of cash. RM500 million)
Please stop treating your stock market investment as a symbol in your computer screen.
Please treat it as a real life business. Then you will be less likely to panic and do stupid things during market correction.
Have a nice day.
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Discussions
3 people like this. Showing 18 of 18 comments
In part 4, I mentioned that I am targeting approximately 80% return in 3 years time. So your question is meaningless for me at this stage.
Please refer to below :
"To make sense of the whole thing, I always look 3 years ahead.
First of all, as a shareholder, I have expectation of RM60 mil net profit for GOB management to deliver. The RM60 mil is arrived at based on Hua Yang and Tambun's past records. These two companies grew their earnings from approximately RM30 mil to RM60 mil within three years. I think this will also be the likely scenario for a small cap company like GOB.
Based on RM60 mil net profit, and 8 times PE Multiple, market cap will be RM480 mil.
Number of shares will be 227 mil x 2 = 454 mil
Meaning targeted market price in three years time = 480 / 454 = RM1.06.
What is the expected market price of warrants ?
Based on 20% conversion premium, warrants price = RM(1.20 x 1.06) - 0.67 = 60 sen
Net worth in three years time = ( 2 x 1.06 ) + ( 0.5 x 0.6 ) = RM2.42
Original cost = RM1.34 (as per item 2 and 3 above)
Gain = 2.42 / 1.34 = 81%
Different people has different expectation. For me, I am ok with 81% gain within three years."
2014-10-29 18:31
On first look, 80% return over three years might not be much. But if you bet big, let's say RM10 million, you will be RM8 million richer in three years time.
For me, it is as simple as that (not that I have RM10 million)
2014-10-29 18:34
You only dare to bet big if you feel that the stock you invest in is something you understand and can have visibility. GOB happens to be something that fits the above criteria for me. That is why I choose to put big money there.
I could be right, I could be wrong in three years time. That is the inherent risk of stock market. Some time shxt does happen.
But for me, if GOB turns out to be a lemon in three years time, I will have no regret. I have tried my best. I cannot do any better than that
2014-10-29 18:48
Aiya Icon8888 everybody scoring big when market down and you targetting 3 years. Bery good investors lah you
2014-10-29 20:44
You are right. I always feel that I am not a very intelligent person, so I adopt the conservative approach to be safe. Hope you don't follow me and my dumb method
2014-10-29 20:47
Tq sir Icon8888. Before you reach 3 years, I think 2015 will be forceful because Singapore want to push down the price of property further and this may pull the Singaporean out of Malaysia. If u are a true expert you would know market today has a large % of Singaporena owning malls here or have a stake in them and similarly residential property
2014-10-29 20:53
As I say, I am not very intelligent person. I don't know about the Singaporean investors. I don't know whether the commercial property market will survive. I am just a layman trying my luck in the market.
2014-10-29 20:56
@ Icon8888. My average price is RM1.07. Glad we are just RM0.07 cents difference. The past few weeks have been a real test of courage... have been reading all your articles over and over again just to be courageous.
2014-10-29 22:03
yes....but do you think my average price of RM1.07 is considered quite high?
2014-10-29 23:13
It is not high at all !! You have to look at it from a macro point of view. The reason I promoted this stock is because of its potential to double over next three years (and I was being conservative). If you are targeting 100% gain, why bother about a few percent higher cost of investment ?
2014-10-30 07:26
Icon8888 , one word of advice ... GDP doesn't equal to revenue , revenue doesn't equal to profit , profit doesn't equal to cold hard cash.
2014-10-30 22:22
Base on the rev n profit trending. gob have 50% upside in 7 mths. Can come early if nov end n Feb end result can sustain.
2014-10-31 00:12
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2014-10-29 18:12