Koon Yew Yin's Blog

Best Time to buy Oil Palm Plantation Stocks - Koon Yew Yin

Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Thu, 27 Mar 2014, 09:59 PM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.

All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin

Koon Yew Yin 27th March 2014

Like most commodities, palm oil price also moves in cycle. There are several reasons why commodity price is cyclical in nature. The price of any product depends largely on the theory of supply and demand which also depends on other economic factors such as economic expansion, recession, interest rate and other factors, all of which are also cyclical in nature.

A few weeks ago, I posted an article under the title ‘Palm Oil Price Trend’ on this forum where I said the average CPO price was Rm 2,250 for last year per ton and in the recent Malaysian Palm Oil conference, all the experts expect CPO price to rise to Rm 3,000 soon. The average CPO price for this year will most likely be about Rm 2,750 per ton. As a result, all plantation companies will enjoy an additional profit of RM 500 per ton for no additional effort, literally for doing nothing.

As we all know, due to the poor CPO price for last year, the share price for all plantation companies have been depressed. Most of them are on cheap sale.  

Since the CPO price is at the beginning of the uptrend cycle, all plantation companies will show increasing quarterly profit in the next several quarters.

 

About 80% of my total investment is on the plantation sector. I have Kulim, FGV, SOP, TH Plantation and Jaya Tiasa and their closing prices are Rm 3.40, 4.46, 6.40, 2.00 and 2.75 respectively. I must warn you that if you decide to buy, you are doing it at your own risk. 

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Discussions
9 people like this. Showing 50 of 57 comments

Koon Yew Yin

benson911, don't you think I have examined R Sawit before?

2014-03-28 05:34

Optimus1

Uncle koon, now the charts reading suggesting possible target of 4.40- 5.00 by end of this year. Lets see if I m right. By then u probably make 150million... omg. I must write a book on u. Have a nice day.

2014-03-28 06:54

iQBE189

hi, good morning uncle koon, how about keladi?

2014-03-28 08:01

Pak Lah

Uncle Koon, I'm so grateful for what you have shared with us. As what you said in your previous articles, the Sceptics can continue to be paranoid while those who have invested in Jtiasa are laughing all the way to the banks. The Jtiasa present price RM2.75 is still cheap, and I'm still accumulating her. On another note, The Edge Weekly recently reported that FGV is set to venture into IT and logistic businesses, diversifying from plantation. This has raised concerns about its ability to stay focus at the plantation segment. Would this development bothers you?

2014-03-28 08:27

Pak Lah

Uncle Koon, the upcoming earnings for Kulim would be bettering the corresponding quarterly earnings thanks to the additional profit of RM 500 per ton, it is safe to bet on Kulim-WC? Appreciate your advice. Thanks.

2014-03-28 08:35

lohman

I don't like FGV because of its so called diversification out of plantation. It is paying over the top for the new assets acquired which raises a lot of questions. Having an Umno ex-politician heading it and with access to FGV's cash pile raises my hackles.

2014-03-28 09:00

390465

old man why so emotional using the word stupid - when people just ask a simple question?
you get angry because people dont follow you to buy Jtiasa? Ya, i am so stupid to buy Dsonic instead of Jtiasa.
Btw, it seems your parents never teach
you some basic manners - respecting others that not having the same view as you. Do you know how to say it in Bahasa.
ya,that is it. KURANG AJAR

KOON ini memang KURANG AJAR!!!!

2014-03-28 09:35

Jonathan Keung

Mr Koon - not everyone thinks alike. whatever decision they made. it's their own choice. cheers!have a great day

2014-03-28 09:39

Soo Cheng

One should be refined and gracious and not to resort to name calling and using crude words to call another person. Those who cannot control themselves should not participate in this forum.

2014-03-28 09:42

Soo Cheng

Uncle Koon is very generous in his sharing. We should appreciate his good intentions. Thank you Uncle Koon for helping me in my investments. By following your advice, I have made some good investments decisions.

2014-03-28 09:44

Icon8888

peace... fengsui master said too much quarrel will drive away the Ong wind

2014-03-28 09:56

fela

But be warned..... China may "stop" buying our CPO.

2014-03-28 10:07

Koon Yew Yin

China will surely stop buying our CPO when the Chinese can grow oil palms in China.

2014-03-28 10:14

Icon8888

china has no way to go but Malaysia and Indonesia

few years ago, they sent a state owned enterprise to africa to explore oil palm plantations there.

Everything works out well until they sit down to count the cost of shipping the CPO back home

2014-03-28 10:18

Jal 贾彬得

which palm oil counter would be good?

2014-03-28 10:25

Soo Cheng

Jal..if you read the above write up by Uncle Koon, you will know the palm oil counters he has bought. However, buy at your own risk.

2014-03-28 10:37

Jal 贾彬得

thanks just saw it under the graph

2014-03-28 10:40

mukah

Dear Mr. Koon,

Thank you for sharing the information on the correct counter(s) to invest. I presume you are bullish on plantation stocks at the moment. What do you think of Hap Seng Plantations as I noticed that it is not in your list. I believe you may think that they are not expanding as much and their earnings will be capped. However, you must not discount that most palms under HS Plant are at prime ages where the output will be much higher. I think HS Plant is tightly owned by the owner and doesn't move that much as a result. Just like Batu Kawan during the 90s.

I hope you can share with us some other good stocks like MPHB Capital which is a hidden gem of Tan Sri Surin Upatkon.

2014-03-28 11:15

eftee

I wonder why ppl like to list their companies yet control them until they cannot move. I thought Bursa ruling is they must have enough spread (certain percent) to be listed. I used to own a travel company share long ago and when I saw they control more than 70% (I think 85% - can they?) I quickly let go. I am not sure that company still listed. Just some Chinaman pride to be listed. Businessman also like that. They will ask: "Is your company listed?" No. Then they will walk away to talk to someone else

2014-03-28 11:22

Pak Lah

Judging from the Jtiasa trending, it would be extremely difficult for this stock to slide. Virtually all buyers who bought would keep them for a long time. There is no T3+1 player.

2014-03-28 12:31

kkng0819kk

There is no suitable land,except Hainan Island ,for oil palm plantation.

2014-03-28 12:57

denden

pl re look at the age profile of HS Plant

2014-03-28 19:30

lmenwe

FGV and TH? Are you serious? FGV had more than half of its acreage need to be replanted. They are only replanting 15k per year hence around 15 years are needed for them to fully replant the existing old trees. When it completed the replanting the current productive trees need to be replanted. Moreover FGV's yield is always below industry standard. Some go for TH as well its yield and costing are totally unattractive.

2014-03-28 20:41

Alan Tan

if got extra money buy BLD plantation 5069 保证你不会后悔!

2014-03-28 21:02

Koon Yew Yin

I always welcome readers's point of view. I always remember that if I do not look at others point of view, I will never learn any thing new.

But, I hate to read some sarcastic remarks or abusive ridicules. For example, the 2nd comment from 390465 above quote 'so uncle koon recommending Jaya Tiasa again'. Don't you think he deserved to be called a stupid idiot who wants to show his frustration because he did not buy JT when it was selling at about RM 2.00?

I am 81 years old and before I die, I just want to share all my accumulated knowledge with you and give away all my accumulated wealth, mostly from the stock market to do charity.

With reference to all the other commentaries, my answer is this:

Remember high tide lifts up all boats. In this situation, due to the CPO price difference of about Rm 500 per ton from the average last year's price and this year's price, all plantation companies will enjoy additional profit for no effort.

In all normal cases of stock selection, I will consider all those factors you mentioned above. But in this case of FGV, I just look at the estates and not at the palms. As I said, even if the management is inefficient, FGV will get an additional Rm 1.59 billion for doing nothing. By the way, FGV also received about Rm 5 billion cash at the IPO.

That is why I wrote the article to point out that all the professional analysts complained about small issues and they did not look at the big picture.

Many readers want to know which plantation or any other share is best. I cannot tell for sure. But my choices are JT, Kulim, FGV, SOP, Sarawak Plant and TH Plant which formed about 80% of my total investment.

Many of my personal friends asked for my opinion of their holdings in properties, banks, industries and in other sectors. My answer is I am not sure about the shares you are holding, but I am 100% sure the almost all plantation companies will be able to make more profit this year than last year which is the most important consideration in stock selection.

Have you seen any reasonable good company's share price come down if the company is making more and more profit?

Take advantage of this situation to make profit. Best wishes to you all including those who abuse me.

2014-03-29 09:14

kenken85

Mr koon. wan ask u about mudajaya? read through every article it seem like it is a bright future prospect. Personally i have confident on this company. But who is this Mr NG. keep on disposing in volume n volume. Thx for the time u take for reply

2014-03-29 09:25

Koon Yew Yin

kenken85, Mudajaya is my largest holding besides plantation shares and I hope this information will help you sleep soundly.

I gave Ng Ying Loong his first job and eventually he became the CEO of Mudajaya. He retired about 4 years ago and his private company called Dataran SEntral Sdn Bhd holds 24.59% equal to about 133,000,000 Mudajaya shares. He sells a little bit to buy a new car or a better house or go for holidays. Unfortunately, there are currently very few buyers. As a result, whenever Ng sells, the price drops.

I often speaks to NG and the current CEO and that is why I am still holding several millions Mudajaya shares. Mudajaya is a very well managed and profitable company. Since its inception, it has been consistently making profit every year,as far as I can remember. It has a very good balance sheet. It is undervalued.

Wait for the good news about their Indian IPP power station completion and the announcement of the sustainable profit for 25 years. This is additional profit on the top of normal profit.

Don't worry, be patient!

2014-03-29 10:04

Steven Yong

mudajaya has high gearing if i remember correctly, but that has been the nature for utilities stock, if able secure longterm consession then ok, if not, if someday mgt screw up, gone.

2014-03-29 10:53

Soo Cheng

Uncle Koon, thank you for sharing on Mudajaya. Being a first timer buying into the stock market and some Mudajaya shares, I was getting a bit worried when Mudajaya's shares prices seems to be going down. I will keep it as a long term investment.

2014-03-29 11:02

traderman

Mr Koon hope you can continue post here to benefit all of us ...I think 390465 doesn't know you and mudajaya.

2014-03-29 12:29

Vincent H'ng

Mr.Koon,Thank you your sharing, hope you can continue your sharing to benefit us.

2014-03-29 16:52

dingding

Mr.Koon, I follow your though, I entered Jtiasa ( I'm newbie), my adverage cost is 2.2 (happy).
I would like to understand why you didnt pick WTK?

2014-03-31 13:15

Lau Chea Yong

WHAT IS GOOD SPEECH ?

ANYTHING THAT BENEFITS ONESELF AND OTHERS

MR KOON FALL INTO THAT CATEGORY FOR WHAT HE WRITES AND SAYS IS WITH GOOD INTENTION AND HE ACTS ON IT.

NO COMMENT ABOUT 390465

2014-03-31 14:04

fatty_tang

Dear Uncle Koon, there is no doubt that Mudajaya is a well managed company and has a strong balance sheet. Can you share with us at what price you purchased your mudajaya shares at?

2014-03-31 15:50

Koon Yew Yin

fatty_tang, I have been buying Mudajaya for many years because it deserved a much higher rating. It is a very good company but it is not exciting enough for fund managers. I told the management to issue free convertible warrant to benefit shareholders who have been patiently waiting for the completion of the IPP projects in India. Issuing free warrants which are marketable is like giving cash to all the shareholders.

Be patient.

2014-03-31 17:17

johnny cash

Mr Koon so long to wait,, by then our next general election will be approaching.. and during GE all this companies will surely slowdown again..

2014-04-01 23:08

Koon Yew Yin

Johnny cash, the price of Mudajaya has been consolidation at this level for long time. The downside risk is very minimum. If you cannot wait then you can buy other shares. In any case, I am not asking you to buy Mudajaya.

2014-04-02 11:23

MrGala

Uncle Koon, whats your view on TSH? TQVM!

2014-04-03 21:01

dragonking

Uncle Koon, does Mulpha still owns mudajaya?

2014-04-03 21:04

Koon Yew Yin

Mulpha holds 22% of Mudajaya and another major shareholder, former CEO, Ng Ying Loong is in control of 24%. It is selling much cheaper in terms of P/E ratio than IJM Corp and I prefer to buy Mudajaya.

TSH is famous but I prefer to buy JT, Kulim, SOP, TH Plant, FGV and Sarawak Plant at this price level.

2014-04-03 22:27

Icon8888

I am going to write an article on mulpha soon. Stay tuned

2014-04-03 22:34

nsk82

this THE_EDGE article on Malaysia palm oil stock level (at 3 years low) may drive investors to grab palm oil company shares like no-tomorrow in the coming weeks.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/283627-preview-malaysias-march-palm-oil-stocks-seen-hitting-3-year-low.html

2014-04-04 18:10

SpeedyBoy

Icon8888, I am looking forward to your article on Mulpha soon. It is the most laggard stock in Bursa the last few years or so. Look at Daya, Iris, TAE. TH Heavy, and Malton etc - their prices have more than doubled up but Mulpha is still hovering at just above 40 sen. The fact that they have a substantial shareholding in Mudajaya and also that they have a higher NTA in relation to the share price means nothing. I have a close friend who have accumulated almost a few hundred lots of Mulpha from 66 sen all the way to 37 sen and his average cost is about 43 sen. He is e patiently waiting ! I just do not know how to explain to him. In fact I am holding 80 lots myself for the last 3 years.

2014-04-04 20:42

Icon8888

ok speedyboy I will do it

please give me sometime.

it is a complicated group

2014-04-04 21:48

SpeedyBoy

No hurry, Icon8888. If we can wait a few years, why not a few more days or weeks. Thanks.

2014-04-04 22:47

zoozooka

Agree with Purebull. Thanks to the internet, we now can exchange opinions with the multimillionaire at our finger-tips. Ask some intelligent and sensible questions if in doubt. Whether or not the answers be satisfying, cherish the opportunities and enjoy while it last. KYY definitely wont be here for long exchanging ideas and opinions.

2016-03-06 21:31

soros228

Wow KYY bought Jtiasa at Rm2.70???
I bought at Rm1.45 also panic now.
He is very geng.

2016-03-06 21:37

soros228

I think he has cut loss for Jtiasa; otherwise how to break even ????

2016-03-06 21:40

cpo_

Oil has moved up a lot recently. Will CPO turn to follow?

2016-03-06 22:27

moneySIFU

Thanks for sharing, Mr Koon.

But Kids will pretend never see the following statement:
"I must warn you that if you decide to buy, you are doing it at your own risk. "

2016-03-06 22:36

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