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Why A Good Company Doesn't Means Its Share Price Will Move Up?

RicheHo
Publish date: Thu, 20 Aug 2015, 07:45 PM
RicheHo
0 92
I am just an ordinary guy who fighting for what I want and what I like. Investing is my full time business and it will always be!

Nothing worth having comes easy. Nothing is impossible too if you are determined. Try hard, learn smart and improve better! =)

Malaysia stock market is divided into Main Market and Ace Market, which made up of more than 900 listed companies. It is a big number, how are we going to select from so many listed companies?

Personally, investing in stock market is just like shopping in supermarket. A supermarket is divided into few categories, such as food & beverages, clothes attire, electrical equipment, luxury item and so on. For example, if you want to buy alcoholic beers, there will be few brands for you to pick, such as Carlsberg, Tiger and Heineken. Each of them has different taste and quality. Of course, the price will be different too. It is all depends on your need and budget. You think that Tiger beer is better in term of taste and quality compared with other beers but it costs up to RM10 for a can. Will you still continue to buy?

The theory is the same in stock market. People tend to choose good fundamental and quality stocks with cheap price. For example, you expect property sector and construction sector will be slow down, so you prefer export-oriented stocks from industrial products sector. In this sector, you may choose companies such as FLB, Wellcall and etc.

Choose a good company is not hard, but choose a good company with its share price moving up is not easy. In this article, I would like to share about why a good company doesn’t mean its price will move up.

As an example, I will use Classic Scenic and Marco for illustration.

Classic Scenic – Sales and manufacturing of wooden picture frame

Marco – Distribution of electronic products

Marco – Distribution of electronic products

 

 

Classic Scenic

Marco

Price, RM

1.19

0.15

NTA, RM

0.80

0.15

P/E

14.62

7.29

ROE, %

10.18

13.67

D/Y

6.72

1.38

Have a look at their financial result.

CLASSIC SCENIC

 

NET PROFIT RM’000

 
 

Year/ Quarter

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

31/3

1

3,036

2,688

2,469

2,305

2,713

30/6

2

2,002

3,813

2,448

3,201

2,491

30/9

3

2,049

3,963

1,861

2,053

 

31/12

4

2,220

2,808

2,356

2,557

 
 

Total

9,307

13,272

9,134

10,116

5,204

 

MARCO

 

NET PROFIT RM'000

 
 

Year/ Quarter

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

31/03

1

2,989

2,814

3,485

3,958

5,177

30/06

2

3,489

4,528

3,824

3,384

5,062

30/09

3

3,607

2,902

4,961

5,978

 

31/12

4

3,910

4,181

2,512

4,724

 
 

Total

13,995

14,425

14,782

18,044

10,239

These two companies had same similarities. They are rich in cash and making good stable profit every year. Fundamentally they are good, isn’t it? However, their price seems like not doing well. The price range for Classic Scenic over the three years is RM1.05 to RM1.38 (30%), while Marco is in the range of RM0.14 to RM0.25.

 

Well, the element that this two companies lack of is EXPANSION. Without expansion or acquisition, they will always remain at the same place while other good companies keep improving. By looking at their cash, obviously they do not make use of their cash wisely.

CLASSIC SCENIC

2011

2012

2013

2014

Net borrowing, RM

-

-

-

-

Free cash flow, RM

19,127,459

21,723,975

16,205,843

16,523,884

 

MARCO

2011

2012

2013

2014

Net borrowing, RM

7,494,001

4,106,108

6,037,017

1,132,207

Free cash flow, RM

39,001,210

41,037,848

41,703,573

41,502,475

Net cash, RM

31,507,209

36,931,740

35,666,556

40,370,268

Marco doesn’t have dividend policy and it only gave out 0.2 cent on FY14. Dividend yield is only 1.38%! The company unwilling to pay out a little bit more for its shareholder even though they had RM40m cash on hand. They rather keep the cash from not doing anything.

Classic Scenic had a dividend policy of 50% and it gave out 8 cent on the previous financial year. Its current dividend yield is 6.72% which is pretty attractive. Besides that, 92% of its revenue is from oversea countries. Classic Scenic is one of the beneficiaries of weakening of MYR.

As a conclusion, a company without expansion is not attractive to invest even though the company is making good profit constantly every quarter and cash rich. In order to compete with other good companies, this type of company needs to have at least one or two advantages/strength as catalyst to move its share price. Classic Scenic has two but Marco doesn’t has any, that’s the reason why Classic Scenic price movement is moving up but at a very slow pace while Marco always remains the same.

It is just one of the reason and I will share further in next article.

Just for sharing.

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Discussions
10 people like this. Showing 8 of 8 comments

traderman

Because buy on rumor sell on news

2015-08-20 22:37

albukhary

Good sharing, thanks.

2015-08-21 01:45

JT Yeo

How companies can create value consist of 2 things, growth and ROIC. In this case, both companies have decent ROE, ROIC would have been higher because of the cash. But growth have been slow or flat so it would makes more sense to growth their revenue even at the expense of lower ROE/ROIC.

2015-08-21 07:34

MMSSNew

Thank fof sharing. I make my cash do work... 23% annual return.

2015-08-21 07:41

Ahbeng Beng

Merely buying a company that is expanding might not be a good investment. The key is whether or not the share price already factors in the company expansion plan. A company that is expanding, and everyone knew the company is expanding, the share price normally will not be cheap. Eg airasia, they are expanding their business regionally, people knew it, shares price already bloated make it a bad investment choice. Plus their strategy is budget airlines, even they become bigger, they will want to sacrifice their profit in exchange for greater competitiveness no matter how big they grow. So even they are expanding, their profit growth might not be as strong as revenue growth.

2015-08-22 16:18

Yvonne Wanyoyo

thank for sharing ^^

2016-06-22 20:03

maomaochong

航空業競爭很激烈的,東尼大大很努力想塑造AA成為名牌,可是其它的機票便宜,多少人會在乎品牌。當國際油價高,經營環境就會很吃力,AA的負債率蠻高的。東尼大大就好像明星,曝光率很強。不知道沒有東尼大大的AA,會是什麼面貌,嘻嘻。

2016-06-22 21:57

iamsoonoob

hi ricky yeo,u say that roe and roic is important in creating value of a company.may i know your metric for these 2?must more than 15?if lesser,means it is not good?do we need to consider about its roa too?

2016-06-22 22:20

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