Wealth Creation

Bright Future for CRC Steel Producers: CSCSteel, Mycron, Eonmetal & YKGI (Part 1)

WealthWizard
Publish date: Mon, 05 Sep 2016, 11:02 AM
All the working, calculation & assumptions are presented based on my personal own judgement & findings, and are for sharing purposes only.

I never think I can move anything unless the thing want to move by itself.

Do your homework, read all news/reports, make your best judged assumptions & understand the business before invest any company.

Invest with FREE money only, using emergency fund to invest is gambling, crazy & suicide act.

My email: wealthwizard.invest@gmail.com

 

Malaysia Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) producers are enjoying good time recently and it is worth to take a look at those companies in the 2nd half of 2016.

All CRC producers had delivered very good results in the latest quarter report (30/6/2016) due to the following 2 major events:

1. Imposition of Anti-Dumping Duties over imported Cold Rolled Coil by Customs (May 2016)
2. Ceasation of operations by Megasteel (Malaysia SOLE producer of Hot Rolled Coil) (Feb 2016)

 

The following are the Top 4 CRC Producers in Malaysia and their respective yearly production capacity: 

1. CSC Steel Bhd (620,000 tonnes)
2. Mycron Steel Bhd (260,000 Tonnes) 
3. YKGI Bhd (220,000 Tonnes)
4. EonMetal Group Bhd (120,000 tonnes)

 
To know respective CRC companies' production capacity, please read page 7 of the following report: http://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/dfgs88n/2015/11/06/1483789631--639706738.pdf


My findings & analysis in my other article:
Huge Upside Potential for CRC Steel Producers: CSCSteel (+24%) & Mycron (+90%) (Part 2)

                                                                     


LOCAL CRC MARKET = PROTECTED NOW

Malaysia Government has imposed anti dumping duties on CRC imported from oversea for 5 years period effective from 24/5/2016.

As such, the selling price of the domestic CRC, which ranged from RM2068 to RM2,292 in 2015, are expected to be maintained or even possibly increased in coming months. 
 
See full press release from Ministry of International Trade and Industry: http://www.miti.gov.my/index.php/pages/view/3343
 
The Royal Malaysian Customs Department will enforce the collection of anti-dumping duties and this measure will be effective for five (5) years, from 24 May 2016 to 23 May 2021. With the imposition of anti-dumping duties on imports of Cold Rolled Coils of Alloy and Non-Alloy Steel from the alleged countries, it is expected that the issue of unfair trade practices will be addressed. 
 
冷轧钢就是经过冷轧生产的钢。冷轧是在室温条件下将钢板进一步轧薄至为目标厚度的钢板。
 
和热轧钢板比较,冷轧钢板厚度更加精确,而且表面光滑、漂亮,同时还具有各种优越的机械性能,特别是加工性能方面。因为冷轧原卷比较脆硬,不太适合加工,所以通常情况下冷轧钢板要求经过退火、酸洗及表面平整之后才交给客户。
 
冷轧最大厚度是0.1--8.0MM以下,如大部分工厂冷轧钢板厚度是4.5MM以下;最少厚度、宽度是根据各工厂的设备能力和市场需求而决定。
 


HOT ROLLED COIL (HRC) = Main Material for CRC Production

Hot Rolled Coil (“HRC”) steel sheets are the basic raw material used for the production of the Cold Rolled Coils (“CRC”) steel sheets.

In general, CRC manufacturers produce two main types of CRC, namely:
1. Scrap Based CRC (made from Scrap Based HRC), and
2. Iron Ore Based CRC (made from Iron Ore Based HRC)

It should be noted that Scrap Based CRC has lower metallurgic qualities compared to Iron Ore Based CRC, because its raw material (i.e. Scrap Based HRC) contains impurities which were inherent in the scrap used to manufacture the HRC. Having a lower quality, Scrap Based CRC is used by downstream manufacturers, mainly in the steel tube and furniture sectors.

The higher quality Iron Ore Based CRC, is used by downstream manufacturers, mainly involved in producing steel drums for the petroleum and palm oil sectors, in making components for the automotive industry, in producing steel sheets for color coating and galvanizing purposes, and in the electronic and electrical appliances manufacturing of white goods, such as refrigerators, television sets, rice cookers, microwave ovens, etc.

 


FALLING MEGASTEEL = FALLING HRC PRICE

Scrap Based HRC, which was supplied EXCLUSIVELY by the sole domestic HRC manufacturer, Megasteel Sdn Bhd (“Megasteel”), was used to manufacture lower grade CRC, steel pipes and tubes. 

While Iron Ore Based HRC were imported to manufacture of high grade CRC.
 
Although Iron Ore Based HRC is of a higher grade, the cost of the HRC supplied by Megasteel (i.e. lower grade Scrap Based HRC) is HIGHER. (Source: Mycron Steel Bhd's Annual Report 2015)
 
Megasteel had abruptly halted production and supply in February 2016 reportedly due to unpaid electric bills. Megasteel had on 1 April 2016 laid off half of its workers.(Sources: Mycron Note A11 QR 31/3/2016, 24 hours termination notice to workers by Megasteel)
 
According to some unconfirmed reports, CRC producers can now import much lower priced but yet better quality HRC from oversea with additional saving of at least RM400 per tonnes if compared to those previously sourced from Megasteel. 
 
Megasteel = continue ceasation of operations as in 22 August 2016 (Source: the Edge)
 


NEW KID ON THE BLOCK, SOUTHERN STEEL = FALL ALSO

New HRC producer, Southern Steel = Installation unsuccessful & disputing with partner. (Sources: Announcement by SSteel on 30/8/2016 & Announcement on 11/7/2016)

Southern Steel had provided impairment loss of RM140m for the invested capital over the HRC production facility. (Source: Note 4 of latest SSteel QR)
 
As such, Malaysia do not have any HRC producer at this moment of time.
 

To understand Hot & Cold Rolled Coils Production, please watch: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9P1Ck0uYOnQ

 

Discussions
20 people like this. Showing 29 of 29 comments

calvintaneng

Best of the best will be Masteel.

Masteel - the Master of Long Steel.

Long steel players are Annjoo, SSteel and Masteel.

All heavy infra project, towers, flyovers, tall tall structures and Mrt and Bullet Train structures need Long Steel bars.

2016-09-05 11:20

wealthwizard

Masteel is at the other segment of steel industry, the company has been doing very well in trying to keep the operations profitable in tough time.

2016-09-05 11:24

moneySIFU

Thank you for sharing such very well written article, a lot of factual reference, keep it up!

2016-09-05 11:36

moneySIFU

I like your pictures about megasteel & ssteel, very funny :)

2016-09-05 11:48

moneySIFU

This article is so timely

2016-09-05 15:04

moneySIFU

Very much look forward to read your next article, wealthwizard

2016-09-05 15:04

SuperMan 99

Good article, thank you.

2016-09-05 16:11

ronnietan

Good article. You write with understanding and knowledge of steel sector. Thank you.

2016-09-05 17:02

wealthwizard

Thank you, moneysifu, superman 99 & ronnietan

2016-09-05 18:01

chl1989

superb article. how to resist not buying after reading this masterpiece. tq very much for your kind sharing.

2016-09-06 00:41

MonkeyBusiness

Imposed duty on end products but welcome to import raw material from the same country, very interesting.

2016-09-06 01:16

wealthwizard

Yes, MonkeyBusiness, it is very interesting

2016-09-06 10:58

VenFx

Really Animated and In-depth article. But, easy to read .
BIG LIKE !

2016-09-06 14:36

wealthwizard

Thank you, VenFx

2016-09-06 16:03

IBanker

hi wealthwizard..i'm going to buy more aggresively tomorrow..still got part 3?

2016-09-06 17:31

Stockwatch

Thanks WealthWizard for your interesting information on the industry.While the upside looks good , at least until the end of the year, was wondering what is your take on the exchange rate ie.US$/RM for the imported raw material now that Megasteel has stopped production.The current exchange rate favours more negative biasness towards the ringgit irrespective whether the Fed Chairman decides to increase the interest rates.
Also because of the competition in the CRC industry ie.oligopoly..can a major buyer of the stock lock in at rate for a 3 year time frame ie. like a futures contract.This is because the government's infrastructure projects will start kicking in next year ie. MRT and LRT and also Eversendai has received new order books for steel fabrication jobs.
I think there is a element of nice roe profits will come about rather than extraordinary profits will be realised as these are the factors which the risk management or the capital efficiency side will meet their respective challenges.
Thanks once again for the good write up.

2016-09-10 10:28

WealthWizard

Flying CRC Steel Producers: Fantastic Business Outlook & Insider's Look (Part 3)
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/104163.jsp

2016-09-12 16:44

WealthWizard

Hi Stockwatch, I think Part 3 have replied certain questions highlighted by you and below are reply from moneySIFU about the effect of weakening RM against USD:

Posted by moneySIFU > Sep 12, 2016 09:08 PM | Report Abuse X
It's double edged sword, lenglui, but seem CSCSteel benefited most from weakening RM while Mycron has been actively hedged its currency exposure, no so much gain or loss last year.

See table 6
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/103812.jsp

2016-09-12 22:36

moneySIFU

Extracted from the above: the selling price of the domestic CRC, which ranged from RM2068 to RM2,292 in 2015, are expected to be maintained or even possibly increased in coming months.

According to the source closed to the CRC industry, selling price of local CRC is moving upward to RM2,150 - RM2,200 in recent months.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/104163.jsp

2016-09-13 18:50

moneySIFU

WealthWizard, the cost saving in raw material (HRC) at RM400-RM500 is confirmed, please refer to the following news:

According to Choo Bee CEO Mark Tan, Megasteel will normally charge RM400 to RM500 premium per tonne for HRC over international prices.
http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/81555

Thanks to Yoloooo for sharing above news.

2016-09-13 23:37

WealthWizard

My new article:

EKOVEST: Doing Great & Ready To Shine, Are You Ready? (Part 1)
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/104926.jsp

2016-09-23 11:37

WealthWizard

China CRC price was RMB3,480 when my first article was published on 5/9/2016, now it is recorded as RMB3,597, an increase of 3.4%.

Bright Future for CRC Steel Producers: CSCSteel, Mycron, Eonmetal & YKGI (Part 1)
Author: WealthWizard | Publish date: Mon, 5 Sep 2016, 11:02 AM
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/wealth123/103741.jsp

2016-10-17 16:07

moneySIFU

China CRC price continue to climb due to increase in car sales in China

2016-11-04 - 4013.33
2016-10-05 - 3508.89
2016-09-10 - 3485.56
2016-08-22 - 3421.11
2016-07-20 - 3111.11
2016-06-23 - 2950.00

http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-318.html
http://www.100ppi.com/vane/detail-318.html
http://klse.i3investor.com/files/my/blog/img/bl2751_crc_price_in_china.jpg

2016-11-05 07:19

probability

WealthWizard...Mycron is worth a relook now

2017-05-11 23:06

moneySIFU

Hi probability, it is interesting for you to say that :)

2017-05-11 23:13

probability

ha ha $$-sifu...i just explained why i think so on Part 2 of WealthWizard's publishing.

WealthWizard projection were indeed accurate...but the market dynamics were beyond anyone's prediction.

But..i think the market is now beginning to give Mycron to unleash its full potential soon.

2017-05-11 23:19

moneySIFU

Interesting, need to study the figures again, thanks, probability, Mycron has been doing really well. Not only that, Masteel & SSteel too.

2017-05-11 23:21

moneySIFU

Not forget your prestar, you have done really great in steel plays, be it first & second waves :)

2017-05-11 23:22

probability

ha ha...i am still no where compared to WealthWizard..prestar is probably just luck...WW is way way ahead thinking...and he is a strategist.

sent you a mail..:)

2017-05-11 23:30

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