THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN
TOP 10 REASONS WHY PALM OIL WILL GO INTO A MULTI YEAR BULL RUN SOON, Calvin Tan Research
calvintaneng
Publish date: Thu, 01 Apr 2021, 02:42 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,801
Hi Guys,
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.
Dear Friends,
Bull Run Time Coming soon for Palm Oil due to these factors:
1) CHINA CROPS HIT BY SUPER TYPHOONS CAUSED HUGE BUYING OF SOYBEAN & CORN FROM USA & BRAZIL - PUSHING UP SOYBEAN & CORN PRICES & BY PROXY CPO PRICES ALSO PUSHED PAST RM3,000 TO RM4,000 A TON (ALL TIME HIGH)
Everything is gone.’ Flooding in China ruins farmers and risks rising food prices
By this time of year, the rice-growing on Bao Wentao’s family farm should have been ready to harvest.
Instead, heavy flooding has engulfed huge swathes of southern China, including more than 36 acres of rice fields that 19-year-old Bao and his father tend to in their village near Poyang Lake.
“The crops have completely failed,” Bao told CNN Business in an interview over the social media app WeChat, adding that his family has already lost roughly 200,000 yuan ($28,000) worth of produce. “The rice was nearly ripened and ready to harvest before the flooding. But now everything is gone.”
2) INDIA 7 MONTHS FARMERS' PROTEST
INDIA BEING A LABOUR INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE NATION NOW PUTTING DOWN FARMING TOOLS IN PROTEST
MILLIONS OF FARMERS ARE NOT TENDING TO THEIR FARMS
BOUND TO HAVE FOOD SHORTAGE IN COMING MONTHS
3) BRAZIL 2021 CROP HIT BY EXCESSIVE RAIN & ARGENTINA HIT BY DRY WEATHER
LA NINA EFFECT
4) JOE BIDEN PIVOT TO GREEN ENERGY AMONG THEM IS THE INCREASE OF BIOFUEL USE FROM SOYBEAN & CORN
U.S. fuel makers see economic opportunity in getting greener as consumption remains depressed during the coronavirus pandemic and the prospect of more government regulations increases.
Phillips 66 said it is planning to transform a San Francisco-area oil refinery into a plant that produces fuels from products such as vegetable oil and animal fat, which generate less soot and fewer greenhouse gases.
5) AFFLUENT CHINA TURNING TO MEAT PROTEIN LIKE SWINE & FISH NEEDS LOTS OF SOYMEAL & CORN AS FEED STOCK
This will increase demand for SOY MEAL & ALSO PALM KERNAL CAKE Which have both spiralled up in prices
6) GOOD YEAR USING SOY OIL TO MAKE TYRES
AKRON, Ohio, – The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company is harvesting some unique “seeds” of innovation as it introduces a new tire technology with support from the United Soybean Board (USB).
The first commercial use of a new soybean oil-based rubber compound is helping Goodyear enhance tire performance in dry, wet and winter conditions. A Goodyear team of scientists and engineers created a tread compound, or formulation, using soybean oil, which is naturally derived, cost-effective, carbon-neutral and renewable.
“Goodyear’s legacy of innovation drives us to continue to apply new technology solutions, developing superior performing tires that meet consumer demands,” said Eric Mizner, Goodyear’s director of global material science.
By employing soybean oil in tires, Goodyear found a new way to help keep the rubber compound pliable in changing temperatures, a key performance achievement in maintaining and enhancing the vehicle’s grip on the road surface.
Goodyear’s tests have shown rubber made with soybean oil mixes more easily in the silica-reinforced compounds used in manufacturing certain tires. This also improves manufacturing efficiency and reduces energy consumption.
7) US TRILLION MONEY PRINTING LEADS TO INFLATION OF BOTH HARD & SOFT COMMODITIES
SOYOIL & PALM OIL WILL RISE TO MAKE UP FOR MORE FIAT PRINTED MONEY FLOODING THE WORLD SYSTEM. IN TIMES OF INFLATION CASH IS TRASH & REAL ASSETS WILL GO UP
Saudi plans economic overhaul with $3.2 trillion investment
RIYADH - Saudi Arabia announced plans Tuesday to pump investments worth $3.2 trillion into the national economy by 2030, roping in the kingdom's biggest companies in a major new push to diversify the oil-reliant economy.
ANOTHER INFLATIONARY MOVE FROM SAUDI ARABIA
8) WORLD MIGHT SEE MORE DROUGHT, FLOOD & PEST THIS YEAR DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
In Australia Rats infest crops
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3018DGoue0
9) USA just reported Limit Up For Corn & Soybean to due planting shortfall for 2021
Corn, soybean futures end limit up after USDA forecasts smaller-than-expected 2021 plantings
Soybean and corn futures rallied Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture revealed estimates for domestic 2021 plantings for the two commodities that were lower than market forecasts. The USDA estimated corn plantings at 91.1 million acres, up less than 1% from last year. The USDA also estimated soybean plantings at 87.6 million acres this year, which would be up 5% from last year. Trade expectations called for higher corn plantings of 93.2 million and soybean plantings of 89.9 million acres, according to a report from Successful Farming, which also said both corn and soybean futures hit their daily price move limits
Already seeing less production from both Brazil & Argentina if USA failed to produce more there will be impending shortfall ahead
10) THIS NUMBER 10 REASON IS POTENT: THE BIBLE PREDICTS COMING FAMINE AFTER EARTHQUAKE, PANDEMIC (CORONAVIRUS) WILL COME FAMINE
King James Bible (Matthew 24:7)
For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.
3 plaques
1) EARTHQUAKE (2004 INDONESIA TSUNAMI; 2011 JAPAN TSUNAMI)
2) PESTILENCE (CORONAVIRUS FROM DEC 2019 till ??)
3) FAMINE (COMING SOON)
THE BIBLE IS NEWER THAN TOMORROW'S NEWSPAPER
SO BE PREPARED
BEST REGARDS
Calvin Tan Research
No particular stock is recommended
PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
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Discussions
2 people like this. Showing 39 of 39 comments
Supermax?
No need
Bought Supermax at Rm1.73 and sold above Rm18.00 for more than 1,000% gain
Supermax C87 even better
Bought at 34.5 sen and sold at Rm7.00 for 2,000% profit
2021-04-01 18:39
Hahaha!
You so loved SwkPlant only
Any more good plantation shares out there?
Anyone please come and post
2021-04-01 20:00
Everyone know about SBO & CPO price are getting highest and highest
but majority plantation counter share price is unchanged.
We cannot make big money bcos everyone knew about it.
The market is always correct & we are always wrong.
This is the stock market theory.
2021-04-02 00:19
Good morning to all who visit here
yes gulamerah
Everybody knows soybean oil and crude palm oil now are at very high prices
So?
What Sifu Warren Buffet said
"If a business does well it's share price will eventually go up"
let me give you an example
more than 13 years ago I saw htpadu being awarded job after job by Govt
So I told my Johor Sifu. He looked at the price of htpadu and it didn't move at all. So he said getting so many job awards also no use as the price still stagnant
I kept buying and buying
Htpadu was only 90 sen then and I also saw Director Helmi buying
One day htpadt suddenly declared a 14 sen dividend and My Johor Sifu got excited
By then Htpadu share jumped up
After ex dividend htpadu price again adjusted according
But to our surprise it declared another 14 sen dividend and followed by another good dividend
As a result people chased up htpadu to Rm1.40
I am not telling you to chase htpadu now
Now although palm oil prices don't move even cpo prices are so very high mean the market now react like last time on htpadu
Since palm oil is a Cash crop they will also give out more dividend and more dividend later
Who knows ?
They might even give out free bonus and free warrants later
and like Kwantas taken private at Rm1.65, Tmakmur at Rm1.90 and Kulim at Rm4.10 many might see golden windfall privatisation later
2021-04-02 07:44
should be
if a business does well it's share price will eventually follow
2021-04-02 07:45
in stock market people don't behave rationally because many treat it as a casino
Stocks with no earnings are chased up on hype and rumour
tech stocks only make 5% to 6% are chased up the sky
now that cpo is over Rm4000 all plantation company whose cost of production ranging from Rm1500 to Rm1600 are making more than 100%
yet prices are still unmoved
So we buy
2021-04-02 09:32
I spoke to more than 5 remisiers and asked them
How many per cent eventually make money from share market actively playing long term?
They all answer: Only less than 10% make money
but 90% are losing money
Wow!
Why ah?
Why like this ?
See their answers
2021-04-02 09:34
1. Many losing money because they followed emotion
Chase when price is high and stocks are popular
Avoid when prices were cheap when prices unmoved
2021-04-02 09:36
2. Some over trade all the time
Even though they break even in share market they were losing all the brokers commission
So commission from trading adds up and caused them to make losses eventually
2021-04-02 09:38
Many listen to hot tips without checking on the fundamental
Also they received the tips last when prices were sky high
after buying Syndicates start dumping and so they got caught
2021-04-02 09:40
One smart Alex in a Trading Room would give advise to all new comers
His advise is this :
Just look at Top 10 green stocks of the day and then just buy when it is green
And then look at the top red counters and sell when it is red
This was his advise
Buy the hottest green
sell the hottest red
By following this silly method all eventually lost money
Finally Alex also lost all and owe remisier contra loss money and ran away!!!
2021-04-02 09:43
Investment bank want brokers/remisier to perform
so out of 30 remisiers and dealers in a security firm all are expected to perform
at least earn enough to cover overhead rental as their building rented at very high prices at shops with prominent mainroad frontage
So if a remisier earn Rm50k then very good
This guy must have many customers trading feverishly
Good one
Then the guy who only made Rm3000 a month or less?
Better perform or kena sacked ?
Why ?
Because he is very very careful and conservative and don't want his friends and relatives who are his customers to take on too much risk
so because of that he lost his job
better lose his job then to cause his customers to punt and suffer horrendous losses
The guy who made alot sees huge turnover of clients over the years as many lost their life savings
But the investment bank praise him
2021-04-02 09:58
That is why investment bank like goldman sachs and others are predatory
they serve their own interest above client
2021-04-02 10:00
Plantation has already witness cpo at above Rm4100 right now
Price still lag but only a matter of time
When all the people "see" the figures later from best quarterly reports they will then chase
So best is to buy when others still fearful
When they all finally turn bullish and greedy prices no longer cheap like now
2021-04-02 10:59
Shhhhhhhh shhhhhhhh shhhhhhhh!!! Boss, you promote like that!!! How can I buy cheap please!? Where got people want to sell please!!! Lucky you dont promote my ***** counter!!!!
2021-04-02 11:13
One more excellent FA counter for plantation *******! Feel lucky as Calvin didnt promote them!
2021-04-02 11:49
Calvin sifu, this industry requires alot of foreign labour, for many years they are struggling to get labour to harvest palm oil..in addition to this, the recent US ban on TOP Glove on allegations of force labour. On top of these, EU ban on Palm Oil.
I think these are the downside factors why no one wants to goreng palm oil stocks, yet. Need to mention another two downside:
- "silent" bio diesel mandate by the Gov of the day.
- The hype on EV and solar projects, this two would affect demand for bio diesel.
Not trying to bash your post but just frustrated, comparing with how ppl goreng glove counters but not palm oil counters LOL
Big fan of your articles thou, last time made money from dutaland after reading your posts =)
2021-04-02 11:58
Thank you Thomas
Malaysia will open its doors to Workers when ready
Right now in India Farmers still protesting after 7 months
No Farmers = No Food
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYqepiH670
2021-04-02 17:06
Hi Calvin, again (I said it last time), CPO price up up up doesn't equal more profit for oil palm companies.
Again, you should just buy FCPO rather than oil palm companies stocks.
This is because FFB Yield has dropped drastically due to weather.
(I got some oil palm estates too. I abandoned few years ago due to high cost. Now is a good time to sell the estates though. )
I wish I can see some smart management figure out how to combat the unfavourable weather conditions now and in the coming years, but such management doesn't exist in Malaysia.
Good luck anyway.
2021-04-02 23:12
Calvin and the dollar guy, see the sarawak plantation's FFB has dropped from 30k ton to 20k ton, consistently going down and the drop is severe and continuous.
(I am the only one in the world to suggest to experts, it was due to lack of sunshine and forced plants and pollinating insects into "hybernation." )
2021-04-02 23:19
supersaiyan3
yes palm oil yield is less in year end and will gradually increase from April to September again in their cycle every year
Although fruit yield had dropped by 20% to 40% the rise of Cpo from Rm2200 per ton to over Rm4,000 per ton does compensate for the lean months
Since less fruit it also mean less cost but if price goes up do much the bottom line is still positive
Fgv cost of cpo production ranges from Rm1500 to Rm1600
Thplant in its qtr report stated it's cost at Rm1,465 per ton
So at over Rm4100 today The profit is superb from 150% to 200%
And we are already in April 2021 and Cpo prices still maintaining above Rm4100
That means that May 2021 result for all palm oil plantation should be good to excellent
In real market now tech stocks only give 5% to 6% profit
For vaccine stock like pharmaniaga the profit is razor thin at net 2% to 3% only
So out there nothing earn so extraordinary like palm oil
of course medical gloves are reporting excellent profits but the best profits have peaked and now gradually returning to normal
Plus also gloves got many many new players diluting the market later
For palm oil there is a very long gestation period of buying lands and then planting to fruition another 3 years. So palm oil got barrier to entry
While gloves have gone sky high in upcycle palm oil stocks remain at bottom and unloved
Hence I find the best bargain in the plantation sphere right now
2021-04-02 23:38
Brained damaged mouse has come?
You done alot of damage to esceramic people when it was 35 sen talking same nonsense as esceramic was then a turnaround due to mushrooming of glove companies ordering more hand molds
Fortunately Calvin still make more than double after Esceramic reached 90 sen when I sold to buy more Netx, Jtiasa , Wtk and Thplant
All these are now like esceramic as palm oil now up will cause a big change in fortune
2021-04-03 12:39
See CPO price chart
CPO at Over Rm4000 has gone back up to year 2012 prices
In year 2012 Palm Oil companies were in bull run
Now covid 19 pushed up Glove prices
Tech demand pushed up Technology shares. But tech only earn 5% to 6%
When Crude oil up many chased & pushed up O&G counters
NOW CPO IS UP MORE THAN 150% yet Palm oil shares still so cheap
SO THE BEST CLASS OF STOCKS TO BUY IS PALM OIL NOW
See chart https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=palm-oil&months=300
2021-04-03 13:02
To SEE and get A BIGGER PERSPECTIVE Click on the 25 years button below
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber
2021-04-03 13:24
Excellent commentary Calvin. Plantation counters will be the play once the next qtr results are out. Then, all naysayers will finally realise the increasing profits is not just a temporary thing. Looking at adding more WTK and TSH.
2021-04-04 17:02
Look here, MHC & Cepat have both confidently announce increase in bumper dividend due to strong CPO price loh!
2021-04-08 19:56
Excellent results out now
all palm oil plantations reporting better Fresh fruit bunches up from 10% to 20% from month to month
after mhc plant others are starting to give special dividends
Later will come free bonus and free warrants as well just like Esceramic did
2021-04-12 21:14
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