THE INVESTMENT APPROACH OF CALVIN TAN

BPLANT VERSUS THPLANT VERSUS JAYA TIASA (MID CAP VALUE SELLLING AT PENNY STOCK BARGAIN PRICES) Calvin Tan

calvintaneng
Publish date: Sat, 21 May 2022, 08:51 PM
calvintaneng
0 1,668
Hi Guys,

I have An Investment Approach I which I would like to all.

Dear Friends,

Recently Research Houses have been bearish due to the Low Harvest of FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunches) and thought earnings of Palm oil Shares might be just so so

The Surprisingly good results of Simedarby Plant & SwkPlant have proven them to be wrong

Both reported reduced FFB but the Rise of CPO prices from RM4,417 (Last Qtr of 2021) to Rm6,015 (1st Qtr of 2022) up 36% has Over rided & boosted both their Profits to new levels

This evening we will look at these three:

BPLANT, THPLANT & JAYA TIASA & see how they might perform

Please note: This is an estimate only as the Actual Results should be out very soon by just next week

 

1) BPLANT (Rm1.03)

See last Qtr Results

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Dec 2021

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31 Dec 2021
31 Dec 2020
31 Dec 2021
31 Dec 2020
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
341,495
227,622
1,049,984
763,048
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
137,213
49,682
344,799
83,281
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
86,478
26,549
242,455
34,382
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
85,135
27,455
241,293
42,952
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
3.80
1.23
10.77
1.92
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
4.00
0.50
8.35
1.00
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.2100
1.1500
 

 

With Rm341 Millions in Revenue Bplant managed to post a profit of 3.80 sen

That was based on Cpo at Rm4,417

This Qtr results will see Cpo prices at Rm6,015 (Up 36%)

Now let's see Bplant Crop production

Total FFB (Oct to Dec 2021) 248,300 tonnes

Total FFB (Jan to March 2022) 195,900 tonnes

So there is a drop of 52,400 tonnes or 21%

Since Cpo price jumped by 36% the overall performance should still be good

More than that

Bplant in Jan 2022 received full payment (Cash) Rm428 Millions from Kulai Young Estate land sale

 

About 19 sen

So the bottom line of Bplant will show a very good qtr

No wonder that Market has priced Bplant above Thplant & Jaya Tiasa

Plus: Bplant has a dividend policy of paying out 60% from profit

In this case Investors in Bplant can certainly look forward to another generous dividend. Hopefuilly to be announced just next week

 

2) THPLANT (86.5 sen)

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Dec 2021

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31 Dec 2021
31 Dec 2020
31 Dec 2021
31 Dec 2020
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
247,547
144,546
760,804
555,097
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
11,235
5,743
137,869
54,462
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
9,641
3,195
101,569
27,460
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
1,828
1,593
70,166
13,991
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
0.21
0.18
7.94
1.58
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
0.7300
0.6600

 

Revenue has improved to Rm247.5 Millions

Profit is a mere 0.21 sen?

No wonder Thplant is priced far lower than both Bplant & Jtiasa

What is wrong with the figures?

Thplant stated biological assets  write back or impairrment

Now we already stated that if we take out biological asset mark down Thplant should have reported 7 sen profit

Market can only see apparent figures and so our voice has been negated and Thplant share price trailed Bplant & Jtiasa

Oct to Dec 2021 FFB totalled 181,600 tonnes

Jan to March 2022 FFB totalled 130,330 tonnes

So there is a further drop of 28% QoQ

This caused more dismay to careless reader

Now we think this Qtr without biological impairment Thplant should at least show a 4 to 5 sen profit

Yet to be seen.

 

3) JAYA TIASA (95 sen)

This is the most popular among all with high beta (In boom years Jtiasa overshot on the upside & in gloom yars Jtiasa overshot on the downside

 

SUMMARY OF KEY FINANCIAL INFORMATION
31 Dec 2021

 
INDIVIDUAL PERIOD
CUMULATIVE PERIOD
CURRENT YEAR QUARTER
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
QUARTER
CURRENT YEAR TO DATE
PRECEDING YEAR
CORRESPONDING
PERIOD
31 Dec 2021
31 Dec 2020
31 Dec 2021
31 Dec 2020
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
$$'000
1 Revenue
239,238
151,486
385,235
372,581
2 Profit/(loss) before tax
73,899
8,578
111,022
55,574
3 Profit/(loss) for the period
51,042
4,589
75,573
39,530
4 Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent
51,074
4,633
75,644
39,477
5 Basic earnings/(loss) per share (Subunit)
5.28
0.48
7.81
4.08
6 Proposed/Declared dividend per share (Subunit)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
   
AS AT END OF CURRENT QUARTER
AS AT PRECEDING FINANCIAL YEAR END
7 Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent ($$)
1.2500
1.1800

 

Revenue was Rm239.2 Millions

Profit is 5.28 sen

This shows Jtiasa has the lowest revenue but the highest profit

This is due to Jtiasa Ms Ngu the Secretary telling us they stopped forward sale

Well done!

Oct to Dec 2021 FFB 202,500 tonnes

Jan to March 2022 FFB 151,100 tonnes

A drop of 25.3%

Again Cpo has gone up by 36%

So if Jaya Tiasa keep still to SPOT Sale then we will see another 5 sen profit (more or less) We think more.

 

We think Bplant (220,000 Acres oil palms), Thplant (240,000 Acres) & Jtiasa (206,000 Acres) will do extremely well in this Current Palm oil Superbull which will last for several years (don't believe the incessant guessing of IB Banks & the idiotic Media)

They have both been totally wrong since year 2020 to 2021 telling us that Cpo prices cannot sustain above Rm3500 & will fall to Rm2600. And Cpo prices will fall by 2nd half of 2022 (How come being proven wrong time after time still harp on a lie?)

Let us forget them & look forward to THE ONCE A CENTURY PALM OIL SUPER BULL YET UNFOLDING BEFORE OUR EYES

 

Stay Invested

Our Target Prices for all 3

Rm1.50

Rm2.00

Rm2.50

And higher!

 

In Bull run Years when Cpo was Rm4,000 Jtiasa crossed Rm3.50, Thplant reached Rm2.45 & Bplant near Rm2.00

Now that Cpo prices are at New World Record of Rm5,000 to Rm7,000

WE EXPECT ALL THREE TO OUTPERFORM!

 

Best regards

Calvin Tan

 

Please buy or sell after doing your own due diligence or Consult your Remisier/ Fund Manager

 

Note:

 

Current P/E of most Palm oil stocks are between 5 to 9

In boom years of 2006/7 they assigned P/E 25 to Palm oil

See if Market will upgrade Palm oil and rerate them upward just like Research Houses in Singapore have upgraded Wilmar & Bumitama from single digit P/E to double Digit

 

John Neff Quote: “I don’t read, much less follow, the valuations or predictions. I study the numbers.”

 

 

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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 3 of 3 comments

calvintaneng

Note:

Malaysia newspapers and Investment papers should go interview all 42 listed palm oil companies and update their readers as Malaysia is world number two exporter of palm oil

in stead they shout Cpo prices going up next week. Or shout Cpo prices going to go down next week and such other useless information which are totally irrelevant to palm oil investors.

Ffb was Rm300 per ton in bleak times and now Ffb (fresh fruit bunches) have skyrocketed to Rm1500 a ton (up 500%)

so it is just nonsense to say it will drop by few ringgit this week and up a few ringgit next week

As long as Ffb is above Rm1,000 per ton all palm oil co enters Superbull

1 month ago

stockraider

Correctloh....very good points mah!

Posted by calvintaneng > 10 hours ago | Report Abuse

Note:

Malaysia newspapers and Investment papers should go interview all 42 listed palm oil companies and update their readers as Malaysia is world number two exporter of palm oil

in stead they shout Cpo prices going up next week. Or shout Cpo prices going to go down next week and such other useless information which are totally irrelevant to palm oil investors.

Ffb was Rm300 per ton in bleak times and now Ffb (fresh fruit bunches) have skyrocketed to Rm1500 a ton (up 500%)

so it is just nonsense to say it will drop by few ringgit this week and up a few ringgit next week

As long as Ffb is above Rm1,000 per ton all palm oil co enters Superbull

1 month ago

ahbah

Plantation stks ... still a good buy ! No good bye.

1 month ago

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