Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-21 09:32 | Report Abuse

yeah, gloves truly only game in town.....

adjusting for forex hedging losses Hartalega results ($ 40 million) and Supermax results adds fuel ......

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-21 09:41 | Report Abuse

Hong leong bank also gives a low tp of 4.42 for pchem. So why am I holding at 5.83? Maybe I should sell and follow sslee into trading pchem?

The problem is, when public bank IB ask me out for coffee to discuss on what my views are on pchem and my investment inclination on the future of pchem, I realized that if ib analysts reports were so good and accurate, why are they working for others instead of doing their own investing?
>>>>>>>

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hleresearch/2020-05-21-story-h1507773060-Petronas_Chemicals_Group_Rocky_Start_to_2020.jsp

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-21 09:55 | Report Abuse

extracts from HLB

Pengerang. PIC starts up plans remain in place. As at end March 2020, PICPetChem is 99.99% complete. Performance test runs being undertaken and are
expected to be completed by 2H20 before commercial production commences.

Maintain HOLD with lower TP: RM4.42. Post earnings adjustment, we downgrade
our call to SELL from a Hold rating with a lower TP of RM4.42 (from RM5.06). We
take this opportunity to roll our valuation into mid-FY21. Our TP is based on a multiple
of 6x mid-FY21 EV/EBITDA.
---------------------------------------------------

cannot lah this HLB....PIC 99% completed and soon commence productions and no indication they have factored that in......and gives such a low 6X EV/EBITA valuation to existing business. cannot pakai.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-21 10:42 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
I had traded other counters and sometime trapped inside for long time. But when I do discipline cost average buying at every 50 cents interval drop I always mange to sell for profit.

So even for low volatility counter like Pchem, if I’m trapped inside I still can look forward to the dividend but true enough Pchem always rebound back. So I'm looking forward to collect again.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-21 10:44 | Report Abuse

haha i3lurker,
qqq3 must be frustrated he sold his glove stocks and now most likely will be trapped in O&G stocks.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-21 10:51 | Report Abuse

me? I just frustrated I make too little from gloves.......nothing can be done now........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-21 10:59 | Report Abuse

the theme of gloves as the only game in town on 23 April was the correct call.......

sailang , all in .....and let it run for as long as possible...where got money problem ?


when can we ever get another situation of only game in town?

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-21 11:13 | Report Abuse

ed by i3lurker > May 21, 2020 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

qqq3 is not a financial man
-----

does not need a financial man to assume selling price to increase X% and therefore profits increase to Y.............mental arithmetic will do........

what price to buy and sell is very personal one...and how much to speculate...........and no one do speculate as much as KYY/OTB....and do rationalisations....its all rationalisations....if u want to rationalise, u can rationalise almost any thing...........

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-21 11:23 | Report Abuse

what price to buy and sell is very personal one...and how much to speculate...........and no one do speculate as much as KYY/OTB....and do rationalisations....its all rationalisations....if u want to rationalise, u can rationalise almost any thing...........


and 1 year down the road if profits and PE do not materialise............there is always a next one.........


Its fine for KYY to do whatever he wishes to do with his money......but its bad advise in the public domain.......A public figure should advise more like Philips/ that CIMB guy.........

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-21 11:28 | Report Abuse

Hi, appreciate if we can move the chit chat to my telegram, as I would like to leave this portfolio page for announcements and my personal postings. The telegram had been quite lively recently actually. A very good chat program

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-21 12:11 | Report Abuse

how to join your telegram group?

Posted by Value888 > 2020-05-21 12:36 | Report Abuse

Can someone clear the RM5.5 road block in Yinson pls?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-21 13:47 | Report Abuse

Hi qqqq3, its at the top description. For some reason I cannot paste the address in chat.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-21 13:49 | Report Abuse

It's the one with /Philipcapitalmanagement

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-21 17:45 | Report Abuse

Sslee, thank you very much. You are a veritable Nostradamus. The moment you sell, PCHEM share price goes up, adds 2 billion in market cap. Can you tell me what else you are seeking out buying so I can edit your portfolio so I know what to buy and avoid?

>>>>>>>>

I cash out my Pchem after reading this Q1 result. So tonight still got Bintang Beer and lobster.

Posted by Rwkl > 2020-05-21 20:13 | Report Abuse

On the same score will he slash....er ahem cash out his Insas after reading its quarter result?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-21 20:20 | Report Abuse

He said he wants to buy more, but I feel it is the ego talking. We all have our pet stocks, and sometimes learning to let go is the hardest thing.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-21 20:53 | Report Abuse

Haha Philip,
You are wellcome. At least by my selling Pchem, it share price goes up.
Cheer.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-21 20:57 | Report Abuse

And by the way I also sold Gkent that is why Gkent share price also goes up.
Double cheers

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-21 21:45 | Report Abuse

You are welcome to join our telegram chatgroup Lee. Many professionals to bounce ideas from.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-22 07:36 | Report Abuse

Good morning Philip,
Thank you for the invitation, I love to join your telegram chatgroup to learn from all the group members. I shall listen more and talk less as I still have a lot to learn when come to investment.

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-22 10:16 | Report Abuse

sslee....did u cash out of Pos too?

now 1.23.......

mine 1.02

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-22 10:52 | Report Abuse

Haha qqq3,
Gdex run faster the Pos.
As of Pos
https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2020/05/19/business-has-been-bad-pos-malaysia-says-after-outrage-over-crying-rider/
Business has been bad, Pos Malaysia says after outrage over crying rider

Posted by qqq33333333 > 2020-05-22 11:05 | Report Abuse

ok I cash out of pos 1.18

Posted by sniper123 > 2020-05-22 11:26 | Report Abuse

hi philip how do i register 2 join ur telegram group???

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-22 12:56 | Report Abuse

Ooh just press the link at the top of my portfolio profile page.

Posted by sniper123 > 2020-05-22 22:16 | Report Abuse

Hi philip, I wanna post on ur new telegram blog but 2 no avail???

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-23 14:21 | Report Abuse

Go to the chat. I don't think you can post on the channel

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-24 14:40 | Report Abuse

My thoughts on gloves.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Mentalmodels/2020-05-24-story-h1507829976-How_to_sell_Gloves_Stocks_or_buy_what_comes_out_in_newspapers_2_years_f.jsp

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-26 07:40 | Report Abuse

A lot of very good scuttlebutt information on the telegram discussion group. A lot of professionals working directly in those industries, glove supply chain, doctors and government stuff to share their work experiences and conditions that can be used to do on the ground research.

And yes, heavy stockpiling on gloves. In majority the sop for using gloves has not changed much, or at all. But suddenly a lot of SKL can give very wide interpretation of usage.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-26 08:58 | Report Abuse

Good morning everyone,
If you had missed the hottest things in town maybe you can keep some cash for more discount day sales to come.

Meanwhile you can watch this BBC report: Middle class Americans queue at food banks as US unemployment hits 38 million. (Unbelievable!!! But seeing is believing)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWT9aOE0OGo

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2020-05-26 09:00 | Report Abuse

The worst of Covid is not over .....


......just about the end of the beginning

Posted by EngineeringProfit > 2020-05-26 09:06 | Report Abuse

The US had a 14.7% rate of unemployment in April.

Researchers estimate that 42% of pandemic-induced layoffs will result in a permanent job loss.

COVID-19 will have 'profound, long-term consequences for the reallocation of jobs, workers, and capital across firms and locations'.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-26 13:14 | Report Abuse

yes, but out of my area of competency, I am looking only at malaysia. Majority of malaysians are back to work, malls are slowly opening, and a lot of workers are back to office. Traffic jam has started.

So anyone who is investing in US market should be careful indeed.

And Malaysian companies that are exporting overseas should be very very careful indeed.

Posted by FearlessKaki > 2020-05-26 16:50 | Report Abuse

Hi philip, how can i join your telegram group ?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-26 22:52 | Report Abuse

Hi fearless, u can click the link at the top of my portfolio profile

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-27 16:33 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Is the below news worth addition RM 1-2 to QL?
Can’t wait to see the QL quarterly report?

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tm-and-ql-resources-likely-be-added-klci-index-%E2%80%94-cgscimb
KUALA LUMPUR (May 27): CGS-CIMB Research expects Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM) and QL Resources Bhd to be added as FBM KLCI constituents when FTSE Russell announces the results of its upcoming semi-annual review of the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index Series on June 4.
In a strategy note on May 22, the research house said AMMB Holdings Bhd and Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) may be replaced by TM and QL Resources.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-27 17:28 | Report Abuse

Dear sslee, I know QL will do well over time. My question is: what do you think the results for INSAS will be in the next few quarters?

Posted by Rwkl > 2020-05-27 17:51 | Report Abuse

Based solely on the above news TM should spike up too....

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-27 18:20 | Report Abuse

Not necessarily. TM is already terminal growth, while ql still has another 500 family marts left to go, and it's not like TM can expand to Indonesia and Vietnam, one of the densest populations per square mile.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-27 20:08 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
For INSAS next Quarter result will depend on closing price and exchange rate on 30/6/2020 (IGBREIT, Omesti, SYF, OCBC and exchange rate AUD to MYR) to determine fair value gain/loss and Exchange gain/loss.

1. INSAS Credit and Leasing with outstanding loans given out: RM 256,273,000 as of 31th March 2020 will continue earning interest income.
2. M&A securities will still be profitable.
3. Car rental Singapore already sold only Malaysia still operation.
4. Associate companies (Inari, Hohup, DGSB will still contribute positive share of profit and dividend but Melium and others most likely loss. The big question 40% associate Winfield holding RM 315,135,000 current assets/Financial assets not sure what are the quoted securities hold.

The important thing
Balance sheet as of 31th March 2020:
Total non-current assets: RM 787,759,000
Total current assets: RM 1,464,841,000
TOTAL LIABILITIES: RM 515,672,000
Of the current assets:
Deposits with licensed banks and financial institutions: RM 493,049,000
Cash and bank balances: RM 228,153,000

INSAS will survive this difficult period and should do well if BOD knows how to employ cash for investment opportunities moving forward.

Posted by Rwkl > 2020-05-27 21:16 | Report Abuse

A note of thanks to you, Philip.
Until you came along, I was getting jittery holding on to this so called over valued stock and started trimming down my small stake.
Am I glad your points knocked some sense into me.
My only mistake were not buying them back and if only the you had posted earlier.
Can’t win them all, can you?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-28 06:30 | Report Abuse

Hi sslee,

I am actually very interested to know, hope you can scuttlebutt and find out, what is Winfield buying and selling? Is the losses from oil stocks? Please share of you can find this information for readers during AGM.

>>>>>>

The big question 40% associate Winfield holding RM 315,135,000 current assets/Financial assets not sure what are the quoted securities hold.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-28 06:32 | Report Abuse

This part is not the important thing, as assets is not cash, and investments into Winfield can be a worrying thing if you don't know what your money is doing.

>>>>>>>

The important thing
Balance sheet as of 31th March 2020:
Total non-current assets: RM 787,759,000
Total current assets: RM 1,464,841,000
TOTAL LIABILITIES: RM 515,672,000
Of the current assets:
Deposits with licensed banks and financial institutions: RM 493,049,000
Cash and bank balances: RM 228,153,000

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-28 06:45 | Report Abuse

This part is the important thing, as my telegram group there is a financial guy working in Singapore who has shared on Winfield for more clarity.

What INSAS does moving forward is far more important than what they have done previously. We are to buy what comes out in the newspapers 2 years from now, not the past accolade which everyone already knows and has accounted for.

If you cannot tell where the growth and earnings will come from for INSAS in the future, then you do not know the business well enough.

For QL, I know how many family mart they have but more importantly how many more they will build in the next 2-5 years. I know their expansion in Vietnam and Indonesia is where the new growth will come because they eat 1/4 less eggs there compared to malaysia. I have seen their expansion plans announcement, so I know in the future where the growth will come. I can guess that will come out in the newspaper 2 years from now.

I am sure with you working at PT musim mas for so long you know what they have dinner in the past. But you are also aware of their expansion plans, how well their growth is doing, and what refineries and plantations are coming up. You know what the CPO prices are, what the fertilizer prices are where to get supply, and how the staff is doing and what the training program is in the future. You know PT musim mas business very well and where the big boss is going. You know the growth plan and where it is coming from in the next 5 years.

Do you know INSAS business as well? Do you understand the business? If you understand the business you would have been able to see what Winfield holdings do. But I think I have better understand if it then you do, despite never going to AGM.

>>>>>>>

INSAS will survive this difficult period and should do well if BOD knows how to employ cash for investment opportunities moving forward.

Posted by Joon Chan > 2020-05-28 06:54 | Report Abuse

Business rocket well, or dont do well, or do damn well.

What is clear since forever, even more so now, is that the insiders there are actively, blatantly,shamefully,raping other shareholders.

Even if they want to give you some, it's just to take more out of you.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-28 09:17 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
INSAS was weight-down by many legacy issues/business and I believe the current BODs are doing their best to address these legacy issues/business one by one.

With Inari, M&A and INSAS Credit and Leasing as anchor in providing positive earning. I am looking forward to a better day when INSAS cash and cash equivalent of over RM 700 million is put into investment opportunities moving forward.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-28 10:14 | Report Abuse

Dear Sslee, since you are a chemical engineer, may I introduce a mental model from chemistry that you can apply to business. This basic principle of called Bernoulli's law.

Bernoulli's principle states that an increase in the speed of a fluid occurs simultaneously with a decrease in static pressure or a decrease in the fluid's potential energy.

This concept can be applied to business in a simple direct way. Applied to business, the heavier you are, the less hungrier you are, the less likely you are to move forward. When you put management in virtue of their relationships with founder instead of a track record of success, the possibility of succeeding becomes lower. Building startups and unknown businesses requires a lot of kinetic energy and dynamic pressure to push the potential energy forward.

It is far easier to propel a growing business forward than it is to hit on the big idea and bring it to fruition. As you seem to know the management directly, what is your opinion? Are they the kind to get their hands dirty, work in the trenches to grow the startups? Or are they an expert in just throwing money around and waiting for others to grow it for them?

How much force are they applying to get the businessess off the ground and what are their track record in the field and their experience in making status work? I mean this of the 2nd generation who are now the bod.

Wishing for something to work and looking at it work are 2 different things.

Personally I find the pressure needed to get the fluid moving can be more than the bod is equipped to provide.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-05-28 13:55 | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
I felt this burning desire that when I had earned enough for my family; I would like to serve Malaysia in whatever way I can and help to bring about social well-being/justice to all Malaysian.

Hence I view my share investment and being active participant in AGM with follow up as part of my desire to fight for common good for all the shareholders. At the same time I am hoping my shareholder activism will have a ripple effect to encourage more shareholders to speak up and hold BOD, Auditor accountable and prevent what Joon Chan mention as “What is clear since forever, even more so now, is that the insiders there are actively, blatantly, shamefully, raping other shareholders”. We need to come together for the betterment of society and make a different. It cannot be business as usual. 抛砖引玉

INSAS BODs are now more approachable and friendly compare to Dato’ Sri Thong time. As of Business grows, BOD main job is to set the direction/target and hire the right people for the right jobs. I can see INSAS is doing well with:
1. Inari
2. Omesti
3. Hohup
4. DGSB new start-up food manufacturing and M&A financial advisory in helping SME listing in ACE or Leap market.

I believe what INSAS lack is a savvy investment advisor like you in advising them on their investment in financial assets at fair value through profit or loss.

INSAS are actually sitting on cash hoard and have many choices of either organic grow, acquisition or investment in financial assets.

Thank you.
PS: Sure I will ask about 40% associate Winfield holding in my next AGM question.

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-05-28 14:38 | Report Abuse

I think this has now come to be clear what I said about gaming the system. Not that the bod is actively trying to cheat investors, but more because the structure of the companies leave a lot of hidden investments and bombs that you cannot see and analyze until a fair value loss is encurred. Why does one who owns INSAS for so long and not know what Winfield holdings is doing with our investments?

I blame the management for this lack of clarity.

>>>>>>>>

Dear Philip,
Can you please refrain from smearing the good name of INSAS BOD and management team with your wild and malicious accusation of game the system without any clear evident or fact?

I had met and talk to Dato’ Dr Tan on INSAS Tech venture (challenge, success and failure rate) and Dato’ Wong on business rationale.

My advice to you, please empathize with those going through difficult time during this Covid-19 crisis and seeing their Investment value fall by more than 50%. Please do not spread fake news to create fear that does not benefit anyone. If you have crystal ball please tell us what shares to buy now that will give us 100% gain in 1 year time, spare us your lecture on quality investment for long term of 10 years for no one know are we still alive in 10 year time.

Thank you
27/03/2020 5:52 AM