Dun be overly concern by a used car salesman wannabe FA/TA. The cash and results are real enuff. Even the great buffet start to invest in airline .... something that he has not done for many decades.
If his airline investment works out ... there will be other big timers who may eye AA/AAX. Current problem is USD/MYR pair ... invest if your horizon is 1 month
Dun disturb him lah .. He currently open a new stall in Chowkit selling underwear few weeks ago. If you are one of his disciples you can still meet him @ Jalan Alor selling something else. This line of business give better returns than his stock picks ... according to his friend wahaha
Thanks for many points presented but still not convincing. Element of selective interpretation and focusing only on cons from overall financial performance datasheet. Like Chinese say, try only to picking bone from an egg!
I'm newbie in market so do correct me if i'm wrong. I just try to understand this article and I have few queries here.
1. I believe that 79billion is refer to undelivered aircraft. In accounting basis, you can book the undelivered aircraft as asset or debt if you not receive the item yet, am I right? From business sense perspective, if you item is not receive to operate your business yet, why you need to book it as debt which it does not cause u a single cent now?
2. Weaken in ringgit is definitely not a good thing to AA. But when we look back to Q3 2016 report, AA manage superbly on forex gain loss. For undelivered aircraft, it should book under the current currency and it's won't cause the forex gain loss. In term of margin, the may slightly cut in my view but as long as the business is growth with healthy profit margin, I does not foreseen any issue there in future.
3. AA is a low cost carrier, ALL the LCC business model is always work like this way. Take your Roll Royce as Uber taxi as an example. Your roll royce is worth 1M, depreciation is 5% per annum which is 50k, assume your expense (fuel, operational cost,etc) is 50k, interest is 50k per years. But u earn 200k for ticket (include luggage charge, sell food in car, lol). You still received handsome profit 50k. Profit margin should look like this way: operation profit / total revenue = 50k / 200k = 25% but not 50k / 1M = 5%.
4. Why undelivered aircraft involve in depreciation? It does not make sense.
6. Repayment of borrowing to reduce debt. I do not see any problem on this. Sound good to me.
7. I never worried about cash position for AA as long as they can earn money. AA is always healthy in cash flow when they are in earning position. y? All your air ticket need to pay advance, right? lol.. This is the beauty for this kind of business.
8. I do not know where u can get this news such as TF is selling, etc. Thus, I cant prove it wrong but don't think that you can prove it right as well.. lol.
9. AAC selling is good but public does not value it as it was. Let say it worth RM1, but public (share price) only reflect it RM0.50. And now someone offer your RM1.40. I think is a good timing to spin-off. I do not few weird if AA have another AAC in few years later and spin-off again.
10. This fear sound a bit silly to me. It's like to avoid the car accident, so you better not to drive a all. Lol...
Calvin reaction of his stock recommendations : When stock up : he will make noise n say chun chun When stock down : he will keep quite when people criticize him stock down : he say this is for long term
Icon8888 the scary thing about Calvin is that he keep talking kind words while stabbing you and pouring poison down your throat... spooky... hoo hoo hoo....
Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 28, 2016 05:01 PM | Report Abuse
Hi guys,,
Go to Ifca forum and read the whole tread.
90% of the ifca diehard hopeful hated Calvin. All rejected my kind warning. In the end?
90% of. the people in ifca forum lost all and stopped posting 28/11/2016 17:51
Icon8888, Icon8888,
There is nothing scary about Calvin. Calvin has been very concerned that all the people of i3 forum be safe, secure & well.
My kind intention of warning about danger has been misconstrued & misinterpreted.
Never mind. Time will tell. And I am happy to wait for the ultimate truth to surface one fine day.
One more thing.
Your assessment of Bj Corp's Net Asset Value is faulty. Please go and correct the article. Bj Corp - No muscle, no brain.
You keep The Store for three years and price now is RM 3.05. So, price gain only around 35%. Divide by 3 - get 10%, if consider compounded rate, only around 8% per year....
Aiyaa.... in this case, keep money in Public Mutual better .... or buy AAX better...Buy AAX around 20 cents , in less than one already 40%. One year - 100% capital gain. Where can get ?
Posted by radzi > Nov 28, 2016 11:37 PM | Report Abuse
You keep The Store for three years and price now is RM 3.05. So, price gain only around 35%. Divide by 3 - get 10%, if consider compounded rate, only around 8% per year....
Aiyaa.... in this case, keep money in Public Mutual better .... or buy AAX better...Buy AAX around 20 cents , in less than one already 40%. One year - 100% capital gain. Where can get ?
Calvin replies:
Price was Rm2.35 on January 19th 2014. Every year got dividend. MGO is Rm3.52
So 18% per year lah!
6 times Bank FD at 3%.
As for AAX the price on January 19th 2014 was a high of 99 cts.
Today AAX is 37 cts. So a drop of 63%
So between loss of 63% plus gain of 54% in THE STORE
The difference is 117% for 3 years. Or 39% per year (of course for those who avoided losses in AAX but bought THE STORE instead! Ok mah.
CT's Another moronic suggestion. He accidently locked himself inside the THE STOREroom now shouting like tanjung rambutan escapee waiting for sohai to open the door for him so he can run away ... Something like DKSH today ..... kekekekeke.
Posted by supersaiyan3 > Nov 28, 2016 11:56 PM | Report Abuse
Calvin, as a pioneer in eB2B, i would say e-commerce is not practical at this moment.
亞航這盤生意如履薄冰,如今山雨欲來,新一輪插水將歷史重現!
Calvin replies:
Precisely times are getting so bad that ECommerce will thrive!
Why is it so?
Answer:
In bad times people want to save monies.
By buying from Lazada or 11th Street a person can save from 30% to 50% for all aircond, fridge, tv, bed, household stuff & others.
All brand new with warranty. And delivered to your door step at your convenience.
So just like taking MRT Train, eating McDonald fast food, using iphone - ECommerce will be a sunrising industry.
After I had bought so many stuff from Lazada & 11 Street in Malaysia. And from Alibaba, Tabao & Amazon from Singapore I don't think I will buy any thing through conventional means any more except going out for dining maybe.
LISTEN LISTEN LISTEN
WHETHER YOU LIKE IT OR NOT ECOMMERCE WILL BE SWEEPING ALL OVER MALAYSIA WHEN JACKMA COMES ON MARCH 2017
If like Ecommerce, buy POS. Dont like big debt, dont buy DRB. People dont know what to be taken private unless it is Insider Trading. Insider Trading is punishable in Malaysia.
"3) The Latest Figures show that AirAsia is having thining margin in profit
While Average fare has increased from last quarter Rm153 to Rm164
Ancillary income per pax has actually dropped from Rm48 to only Rm46
For a seat in a plane worth Rm400 million with such razor thin margin of Rm46 profit? This is even worst than using Roll Royce as Uber taxi getting Rm15 fares?
No wonder Bloomberg came out with an article saying AirAsia would be making a Loss if not for Leasing planes to subsidiaries!!"
Remember why the GMT RESEARCH titled their reports for Airasia Parent Company as "New dog, old trick" ? Because it found out that AA parent company are using its subsidiaries to lease aircrafts from parent company just to put AA in the "black" every quarter. By not doing so, AA already in the "red" for many years now.
While what we know for many years, those subsidiaries like Philippines AA, Indo AA and Thai AA been making tremendous losses every year. Just this year Thai AA returns to the black.
Besides, GMT Research pointed out that the cash flow position is trending and dwindling down to zero even BEFORE RM crashed below 1:4 against USD, and oil price slump when AA group hedged oil above USD 80 for many years.
Jollibee, I urge you to read all the comments in other posts and do your own due diligence. Calvin doesn't even know about operating lease and depreciation.
On Bloomberg article on incoming on operating lease, there is article by icon88.
I also emailed Bloomberg's writers and article editors to ask them to clarify the points raised. No reply received. Maybe I am too small fish. But my respect for them go down the hill as they don't even want to clarify.
Airasia & AAX totally bankrupted with many billion negative funds loh!
It also cannot operate on normal basis....as many borders still close loh!
Hence tough time for investors loh!
Better sell & switch to plantation lah!
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Posted by MuttonCurry > 2016-11-28 11:10 | Report Abuse
Dun be overly concern by a used car salesman wannabe FA/TA. The cash and results are real enuff. Even the great buffet start to invest in airline .... something that he has not done for many decades.
If his airline investment works out ... there will be other big timers who may eye AA/AAX. Current problem is USD/MYR pair ... invest if your horizon is 1 month