i don't agree with raider on this 1. How can compare myeg, pestariang with Pchem leh? Petronas is the main shareholder. Pchem die, petronas div also get affected le.....
Yeah now you know level 1 thinking versus level 2 thinking. Not rechecking facts. Not looking through annual reports. Not understanding how listed companies businesses works.
Stockraider is sad and funny at the same time.
PCHEM is a listed company. The dividends every year 1 billion if which goes to petronas.
If PCHEM doesn't do well, petronas dividend of course doesn't do well also la.
If the govt can favor petronas more, instead of pechem and can get rm 3 billion more on the raw material pricing instead of rm 500m div being govt share why not leh ??
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 15, 2019 11:33 AM | Report Abuse
Yeah now you know level 1 thinking versus level 2 thinking. Not rechecking facts. Not looking through annual reports. Not understanding how listed companies businesses works.
Stockraider is sad and funny at the same time.
PCHEM is a listed company. The dividends every year 1 billion if which goes to petronas.
If PCHEM doesn't do well, petronas dividend of course doesn't do well also la.
While raider was playing Hengyuan the very hard way, Petdag rose from $22 from that same time when Hengyuan was "hot" to $26 today, not including the dividends.
Even if govt ask for higher dividend from Petronas, pchem being a listed co would pay a higher dividend to all shareholder including Petronas main Co. Then Petronas itself pays the govt. Although I don't find pchem current price attractive but its still a good company to invest in.
Posted by 3iii > Feb 15, 2019 11:38 AM | Report Abuse
While raider was playing Hengyuan the very hard way, Petdag rose from $22 from that same time when Hengyuan was "hot" to $26 today, not including the dividends.
THEY WILL RAISE THE GAS PRICE TO FAVOR PETRONAS INSTEAD OF PCHEM MAH....!!
SO BECAREFUL LOH....!!
Posted by stockraider > Feb 15, 2019 11:37 AM | Report Abuse X
If the govt can favor petronas more, instead of pechem and can get rm 3 billion more on the raw material pricing instead of rm 500m div being govt share why not leh ??
Posted by wotvr > Feb 15, 2019 11:39 AM | Report Abuse
Even if govt ask for higher dividend from Petronas, pchem being a listed co would pay a higher dividend to all shareholder including Petronas main Co. Then Petronas itself pays the govt. Although I don't find pchem current price attractive but its still a good company to invest in.
Posted by wotvr > Feb 15, 2019 11:39 AM | Report Abuse
Even if govt ask for higher dividend from Petronas, pchem being a listed co would pay a higher dividend to all shareholder including Petronas main Co. Then Petronas itself pays the govt. Although I don't find pchem current price attractive but its still a good company to invest in.
>>>>
Petronas companies do enjoy some UNFAIR advantages, being locally grown.
That is old BN generousity and lax days....it is over the reform is coming as the govt lack of monies now mah....!!
Posted by wotvr > Feb 15, 2019 11:39 AM | Report Abuse
Even if govt ask for higher dividend from Petronas, pchem being a listed co would pay a higher dividend to all shareholder including Petronas main Co. Then Petronas itself pays the govt. Although I don't find pchem current price attractive but its still a good company to invest in.
>>>>
Petronas companies do enjoy some UNFAIR advantages, being locally grown.
I prefer facts over rumors and speculations. Stockraider way of investing I know nothing about. But I do know how to calculate long term profits for PCHEM. And I do know that pic is not a white elephant.
IF READER WANT TO BELIEVE PHILIP AND FOLLOW HIM...JUST WAIT FOR THE LATEST PCHEM RESULT B4 JUMP IN LOH....AT LEAST U SEE HOW THE BUSINESS CONDITION IMPACTING PCHEM IN ORDER TO RISK MANAGE LOH....!!
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 15, 2019 11:52 AM | Report Abuse
I prefer facts over rumors and speculations. Stockraider way of investing I know nothing about. But I do know how to calculate long term profits for PCHEM. And I do know that pic is not a white elephant.
Do you know how much "gas" is pchem buying cheaper for? Is it ethylene? Is it naphta? Or are you thinking lng?
Do you know the prices PCHEM is paying, exactly with a sweeping statement like that?
Just trolling because it's all in there in the annual reports, the financial presentation, the quarterly documentation.
You talk with all capslocks, can you capslocks the price they are paying?
Just FYI before you embarrass yourself further.
I calculated the price pchem pays for their feedstocks. It's around the same price sold in market everywhere. Petronas also need to make money.
The difference is simply the fact that same as in samur, same as in kertih, same as in Johor. The refining process and the pipeline and transportation to the petrochemical plant is so near ( basically same area) that their ancillary costs is far lower than competitors.
Now tell me stockraider, how much does PCHEM pay for it's "cheaper" gas per metric tonne.
Please let us know how you calculate it as cheaper? Or you simply bullshit again? Capslocks again?
Now your thesis is 1) Economy of scale, some probably. 2) Cheap feedstocks from PETRONAS.
I'm not sure if the second holds water.
Firstly, there's something called a "transfer pricing documentation", which every large conglomerates with huge interco transactions need to have. This dictates the price these items can be sold, or how the price can be set.
The figure at which it sells the feedstock, needs to be at arms length basis, or as if to a third party.
If you say PETRONAS sell cheap to Petchem, you are saying the government of malaysia is willingly making lower money, since PETCHEM is public listed and not 100% owned.
That PETRONAS staff willingly murder their KPI by selling cheap and lower profit there.
Maybe, what they have is lower transport and storage cost, since you have a stable and fast supply, but cheap feedstock, is a stretch.
Exactly, stockraider listen to jonathan, listed company cannot simply sell some cheap some expensive, there is a standard pricing for everything.
Net profit that high can only come from one place, efficiency of operations compared to competitors.
First ask yourself, utilization of plants, how many %? If you have consistent supply of naphta, no delays in receiving shipment, no need in bidding or auction of supplies, delivery right next door from the refining plant. If you have a wide range of commission network, selling around the world, information will give you visibility on where is the best paying customers.
If you need to fly around the world every day, how much would you save if you lived next to KLIA airport versus living in Cheras.
Obviously in the case of RAPID, upon completion, 50% crude will come from ARAMCO with the option of 70%, and 50% from petronas. the refining business I dont really care, but I do know the petrochemical business side 100% will be processed in PIC itself by PCHEM under the new JV.
Unlike QL where philip is the subcontractor....this pchem Mr philip does not has insider information...he has no additional advantage over raider mah.....!!
But Philip hold out, like he know alot of pchem, but actually not much...but he want to talk like an expert just try to belittle raider in order to impose his false assumption and protect his pride loh....!!
But the info...he give is just false assumption mah...not true loh...!!
Stockraider, until now you cannot answer a simple question which is in the annual reports, blah blah blah.
Simple question 1. How much is the price PCHEM is paying for feedstocks from petronas that you say is " eroding"
Simple question 2. Why is PCHEM getting 25% net profit compared to it's petrochemical competitors like LCTITAN etc(10%)?
Simple question 3. How much additional revenue will PCHEM receive from Pangerang RAPID refining process to give additional feedstocks capacity to them? Is the estimated 3.3 MTPA ( PCHEM current capacity 10.9 mpta) feasible or a fake number?
Simple question 4. If the new production capacity priced into PCHEM current price? What will the intrinsic value be when you add this new capacity into book value?
Investing is not that difficult. It's all about buying a stock today for it's returns tomorrow.
If you need to be an expert to buy stocks, what are you doing speculating in sapura. Got margin of safety? You are buying just in the HOPE that the price will go up with zero care in what the underlying business is doing.
Just because you are making money, make 10-20% from sapura, you think it is not a risky play.
Just because you made money from carimin, make 100%, you think it is not a risky activity?
Working in o&g you only see the high salary and bonuses, but not the underlying risk involved. Just try buying insurance, the premiums are different. Why?
The habits you build while investing forms the core of your long term success. And the core of long term success is COMPOUNDED GAINS.
How many times you cut loss? Each time you cut loss you lose months and years of investing gains.
I don't want to belittle you anymore raider, but when you talk more than you listen and read, someone has to teach you a better way.
I hope you learned something.
* I apologise if I make you feel small. But you seem to think investing is about me fighting you. No, arguing until cow turn into milk won't achieve anything. Investing is about being right. I don't really care anything about you. I don't even know your real name or care who you are. What I care about is factual useful information brought to the table. So far you talk the most, and bring the least. You should change that.
(S = Qr) Philip If you need to be an expert to buy stocks, what are you doing speculating in sapura. Got margin of safety? You are buying just in the HOPE that the price will go up with zero care in what the underlying business is doing.
You might as well be gambling in genting.
Or sailang in buying sub-prime derivatives. 16/02/2019 06:00
>>>>>
raider will definitely dislike this line of interrogation. :-)
>>>> lachai2004 Phillip, I like your ideal of switching PBbank to PChem as it's quite unlikely for PBbank to grow 16/02/2019 08:33
lachai2004 but with 1 PBbank= 3 Pchem, it's much much easier to double your capital as both are good fundamental stock. 16/02/2019 08:35
lachai2004 Don't need to argue anymore, let time to prove it. i mean long of 5 year! 16/02/2019 08:36 >>>>>
Nestle doubled from $20 to $40 to $80 and is now $140. It has little to do with how much is the price per share. It is all based on its fundamentals and earning power.
Likewise PBB and PChem.
Many have wrong idea that a $20 share has less chance of doubling than a $2 share. But that is wrong thinking. If that were to be the case, $20 shares should cease to exist. Moreover, you can easily split the shares to get at a lower price per share, but this should not make any difference to the value of the company to the existing shareholders.
Arguing for arguing sake is fruitless and not beneficial to anyone. To each is own. However belittling others is not what we are here for. Sharing and learning is why we are here for. Sometimes we need to swallow our pride and accept the truth. P Chem future growth will be known with the passage of time just like PBB, Yinson and Top Glove have proven. Thank You Philip for sharing. Sometimes, Philip you can only take the horse to the watering hole but you cant force it to drink!
>>> Posted by pputeh > Feb 16, 2019 10:03 AM | Report Abuse
Arguing for arguing sake is fruitless and not beneficial to anyone. To each is own. However belittling others is not what we are here for. Sharing and learning is why we are here for. Sometimes we need to swallow our pride and accept the truth. P Chem future growth will be known with the passage of time just like PBB, Yinson and Top Glove have proven. Thank You Philip for sharing. Sometimes, Philip you can only take the horse to the watering hole but you cant force it to drink! >>>
I think you are referring to Philip's good comments on raider's frequent arguments.
The question u raise raider already answered mah...if u only read carefully raider's previous replies loh...!!
Anyway your pick on pchem is actually much better than QL as it offer better return in terms of earnings yield and dividend yield loh..!!
But raider don see it is a superb investment like what u have touted and promoted mah, it just give u a fair normal return and nothing special mah...!!
As for your comment on raider's play play sapnrg as gambling ....actually this company can be an investment as well as for speculative play mah...bcos it got very huge margin of safety mah...!!
For raider the line between speculation v investment sometime is very grey all bcos, raider buy with very big margin of safety loh....!!
One thing for sure loh...if u compare sapnrg Rm 0.305 v Pchem rm 8.51 base on today price as at 16-2-2019, it is definitely and certainty, the future gain from sapnrg will beat pchem easily over 1 yr loh...!!
This how raider manage to beat 3iii (he is extremely jealous bcos of that} most of time too mah....when a stock with extreme undervaluation like sapnrg it is very hard too beat mah..!!
If u don believe raider u check the share price of sapnrg v pchem in a years time on 15-2-2020...1 day after valentine day loh...!!
I think you have it wrong. I am investing more than 12 million of me, my father in law and my wife net worth.
Knowing this, you need to see deeper and invest with extreme care, with minimal risk and the best possible growth with that level of risk.
Ask yourself, if you invest 10 million with your entire family, brother, cousin, lender money, do you really think you have the guts to put all that money in a very on sapura?
I might as well start an ah long company and get 18% per annum borrowing to b40 individuals, less risk.
How shaky do you think "investing" in CARIMIN and SAPNG is at these current levels when you can't even name the CEO or it's business strategy. When the directors themselves are rushing to sell all their shares to you so they can get out of their own company?
Speculation is speculation.
In investing you don't look at 1 month, 3 month, 1 year prices.
I look at 5-10 years from now.
No need to argue with someone who can't even answer simple economic questions.
Do you want me to tell you how much pchem pays for feedstocks? Or why exactly pchem can maintain 25% net profit margin in an industry selling plastics, fertilizer, aromatics and PVC? Or how much extra revenue will be generated from Pangerang RAPID?
The fact u put Rm 12m on pchem i m not worry mah...pchem is a big co...with Rm 68 billion mkt cap...your rm 12m has not much influence over long run mah....!!
If u put Rm 12m on say pphb or insas then u may beat my sapnrg bcos these are smaller cap....rm 12m investment is a big deal mah...!!
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 16, 2019 10:47 AM | Report Abuse
I think you have it wrong. I am investing more than 12 million of me, my father in law and my wife net worth.
Knowing this, you need to see deeper and invest with extreme care, with minimal risk and the best possible growth with that level of risk.
Ask yourself, if you invest 10 million with your entire family, brother, cousin, lender money, do you really think you have the guts to put all that money in a very on sapura?
I might as well start an ah long company and get 18% per annum borrowing to b40 individuals, less risk.
How shaky do you think "investing" in CARIMIN and SAPNG is at these current levels when you can't even name the CEO or it's business strategy. When the directors themselves are rushing to sell all their shares to you so they can get out of their own company?
Speculation is speculation.
In investing you don't look at 1 month, 3 month, 1 year prices.
I look at 5-10 years from now.
No need to argue with someone who can't even answer simple economic questions.
Do you want me to tell you how much pchem pays for feedstocks? Or why exactly pchem can maintain 25% net profit margin in an industry selling plastics, fertilizer, aromatics and PVC? Or how much extra revenue will be generated from Pangerang RAPID?
Really boloh, I give up. The amount of money you invest is the amount you will lose if your investment is wrong. Which business has the higher risk of disappearing in the long term?
A company that each quarter can buy 2 insas? With high, consistent profits that you can see 5-10 years from now?
Or a company so ridden with debt, it can't even bid for projects anymore and has to keep selling assets to pay creditors ( sapura)
Or a company with fake assets out east that no one can verify it see, and accountants who don't care about their reputation just sign off? (Sumatec)
Or a company that buys questionable investments in a fintech that no one has ever heard of or generate any income, and a company that buys a biotech company that you don't even know what it does and how much money it can make. That is insas.
Do you even care what insas is doing with your retained earnings?
Good luck. I find the fact that you can make money from stock market long term to be amazing.
U really stupid loh...just bcos u put big amount on a stock...u r going to outperform meh ??
Very stupid analogy loh...!!
If like that Tabung haji, EPF and PNB put billion billion every yr why they no outperform leh ??
OutPerformance depends on your stock selection mah....ur pechem is a fair selection not a superb buy....it is likely cannot even beat my sapnrg with huge margin of safety loh....!!
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 16, 2019 11:04 AM | Report Abuse
Really boloh, I give up. The amount of money you invest is the amount you will lose if your investment is wrong. Which business has the higher risk of disappearing in the long term?
A company that each quarter can buy 2 insas? With high, consistent profits that you can see 5-10 years from now?
Or a company so ridden with debt, it can't even bid for projects anymore and has to keep selling assets to pay creditors ( sapura)
Or a company with fake assets out east that no one can verify it see, and accountants who don't care about their reputation just sign off? (Sumatec)
Or a company that buys questionable investments in a fintech that no one has ever heard of or generate any income, and a company that buys a biotech company that you don't even know what it does and how much money it can make. That is insas.
Do you even care what insas is doing with your retained earnings?
Good luck. I find the fact that you can make money from stock market long term to be amazing.
Saturday is off day yes, but i'm also on holiday now until after chap goh mei, enjoying super high speed internet now in HK. Daughter landing in HK then we transfer flight to Sabah.
Problem with Sabah is that hard to find direct flights out to anywhere. Have to fly to SG or HK for transfer to US.
>>> I also realized Eason not related to you. He sold his Vitrox too early. :)
If you play texas poker or gambling during CNY, you gamble with RM5-10 is consider play play no pain.
You try playing one hand 100K-200K, your hand shaking or not. Can still consider play play?
If you really multimillionaire like you claim you are, you would have understood by now.
To make real money, you need to put big money and make consistent tough choices.
Investing where got play play this word? You need to have as much information as possible, make the right decisions, and buy only consistent stocks that wont lose you money in the long term. That is investing.
Speculation you play like bacarat table got la. Either go up or down. When go up dont know, when go down also dont know.
you play play 1-5K on sapura got la, how to believe you can "invest" millions like you say in stocks with the same kampung thinking? Or you lose more than you win in the stock market, get angry and start arguments with everyone on i3?
If like that, I feel sorry for you lor. Let you win lor. Stockraider say everything also correct lor.
*outperform or not dont know yet. But I know I miminize my stocks risk first, and maximize my opportunity costs second. Basic fundamentals. Big amount or small amount doesnt matter, but if you invest as if thinking your whole family will be sold to slavery if your stock pick fails, then you definitely will start thinking about risk first, no? And if you think like that, do you still want to buy 30 stocks, gambling stocks, or friend recommend stocks?
I hope you learned something.
>>> U really stupid loh...just bcos u put big amount on a stock...u r going to outperform meh ??
Raider just want to tone u down....loh...!! Nothing wrong with ur pchem pick but nothing very special about it also loh...!! U will just get normal fair return at this price loh...!!
Posted by (S = Qr) Philip > Feb 16, 2019 12:08 PM | Report Abuse
Sigh... stockraider, you really dont understand?
If you play texas poker or gambling during CNY, you gamble with RM5-10 is consider play play no pain.
You try playing one hand 100K-200K, your hand shaking or not. Can still consider play play?
If you really multimillionaire like you claim you are, you would have understood by now.
To make real money, you need to put big money and make consistent tough choices.
Investing where got play play this word? You need to have as much information as possible, make the right decisions, and buy only consistent stocks that wont lose you money in the long term. That is investing.
Speculation you play like bacarat table got la. Either go up or down. When go up dont know, when go down also dont know.
you play play 1-5K on sapura got la, how to believe you can "invest" millions like you say in stocks with the same kampung thinking? Or you lose more than you win in the stock market, get angry and start arguments with everyone on i3?
If like that, I feel sorry for you lor. Let you win lor. Stockraider say everything also correct lor.
*outperform or not dont know yet. But I know I miminize my stocks risk first, and maximize my opportunity costs second. Basic fundamentals. Big amount or small amount doesnt matter, but if you invest as if thinking your whole family will be sold to slavery if your stock pick fails, then you definitely will start thinking about risk first, no? And if you think like that, do you still want to buy 30 stocks, gambling stocks, or friend recommend stocks?
I hope you learned something.
>>> U really stupid loh...just bcos u put big amount on a stock...u r going to outperform meh ??
Very stupid analogy loh...!!
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Posted by titus > 2019-02-15 11:28 | Report Abuse
i don't agree with raider on this 1. How can compare myeg, pestariang with Pchem leh? Petronas is the main shareholder. Pchem die, petronas div also get affected le.....