Posted by mi lee > 2013-08-02 12:02 | Report Abuse

to all sifu, what you think? Thanks

Posted by KY Lau > 2013-08-03 12:06 | Report Abuse

notion business in USD?

Posted by eltaria > 2013-08-05 16:57 | Report Abuse

**Im not sifu lee mi, u already did your homework on the fundamentals, so what's your concerns at the moment? fundamentally it's good as you highlighted, and they're successful in any new market that they entered, automotive, and slr for example.

Share buy back, and then share redistribution back to the shareholders, nikon owns 10% of notion, there's plenty to like actually.

Just need a catalyst to kick it up, maybe 1 to 2 quarters results later, but by then everyone already knows about it and you'll end up chasing. Good entry point now actually.

Posted by eltaria > 2013-08-15 18:18 | Report Abuse

Notion Q results up... insurance claim from fire banked in, but still have 1 more batch to come. Current EPS 7.38, projected full year eps at 10-11 cents at least. Considering hdd is in down cycle at the moment, it's not too bad at all.

Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2013-08-16 08:52 | Report Abuse

Buy

Posted by hoby > 2013-08-16 08:57 | Report Abuse

congrats those who buy last few week as said, diamond in he rough >.<

Posted by Peter Lee > 2013-08-16 08:57 | Report Abuse

usa drop affect asia bourse,be careful

Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2013-08-16 09:03 | Report Abuse

Is QE tapering over ?http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900353607.jsp

Posted by L. C. Chong > 2013-08-16 12:03 | Report Abuse

NOTION – Q3 2012 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1377309) on 15 Aug 2013

Analysis Report – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/notion-q3-2012.pdf or more (http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/)

Posted by lwalk > 2013-08-19 09:47 | Report Abuse

flying, woohoo

Posted by L. C. Chong > 2013-08-19 09:47 | Report Abuse

NOTION – Q3 2013 Financial Report (http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1377309) on 15 Aug 2013

Analysis Report – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/08/19/notionfundamental-analysis-19-aug-2013/ or http://lcchong.wordpress.com/knowledge-sharing/

I made some mistakes in extracting financial data from NOTION annual reports. The mistake caused wrong valuation in DCF. I have fixed the data in this analysis.

Posted by monkey79 > 2013-08-20 13:13 | Report Abuse

Just attended a two-day course, at the end of the course discussed this company. Seems like a good buy now. ^_^

Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2013-08-20 13:23 | Report Abuse

sell first. buy in later at cheaper price

Posted by eltaria > 2013-08-22 17:11 | Report Abuse

Anyway, US tapering, interest rate goes up, USD to RM goes up, good news for exporters. panic sell, buy when everyone fears~~ fundamentals doesn't change much, if not improved by usd appreciation. Only problem is, can you guess when the panic sell will end, and end at what price (btm)?

Posted by KY Lau > 2013-09-20 07:21 | Report Abuse

buy

Posted by kelvinongbk > 2013-09-20 14:50 | Report Abuse

Slowly going up..TP still intact..

Posted by eltaria > 2013-09-23 17:07 | Report Abuse

thailand flood again, maybe some positive effect to local harddisk makers..

Posted by TESSA > 2013-10-04 20:23 | Report Abuse

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/257533-notion-vtec-buys-199-in-australian-silver-mining-firm.html

Posted by Kim Yap Lau > 2013-10-10 14:07 | Report Abuse

It is reviewed that Western Digital and Nidec companies are interested in shifting their business units outside Thailand by 2015 to places where weather will show no impact on their business. The companies are already working on plans to make this move financially viable to their business in future.

Posted by Kodok > 2013-10-14 20:47 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by KY Lau > 2013-10-17 22:45 | Report Abuse

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1739472

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-10-18 10:30 | Report Abuse

Interesting article indeed, the problem is how much Notion can transfer or upgrade itself towards the manufacturing of the above, eventhough consumer hdd sales may be bad, but enterprise hdd sales is good and projected to get higher and with higher margins too at least for WD/SGT. There is an opportunity there, but it'll depend on notion's management execution to successfully migrate more % of their HDD to the enterprise or the ultra slim factors.

Posted by kelvinongbk > 2013-10-24 10:05 | Report Abuse

when is the financial result for the 3rd quarter coming out...hopefully it's good...so that it can give the share price a boost...

Posted by Hustle > 2013-10-24 11:03 | Report Abuse

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
Wall Street ends down as Caterpillar falls, Boeing rallies

Reuters U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday as shares of heavy-equipment maker Caterpillar and semiconductor companies tumbled after they reported earnings, ending the S&P 500's four-session streak of record high finishes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/futures-slide-china-cash-fears-113927665.html

Posted by KY Lau > 2013-11-11 19:47 | Report Abuse

come

Posted by L. C. Chong > 2013-11-14 11:46 | Report Abuse

NOTION analysis – http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/notion-q3-2013.xlsx

Latest Financial – Q3 2013 Financial Report (15 Aug 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1377309

I have revisited NOTION, and NOTION will remain in my Observation List.

- Although it is currently under-valued according to DCF and EY%, I won’t immediately invest in NOTION.
- The reason being is I am still not convinced their decision in buying ALCYONE. I am very cautious when a company diverts from its core business.
- I may invest in this counter if NOTION resumes uptrend.

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of NOTION.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-14 16:55 | Report Abuse

Thanks Chong for sharing on your works, appreciate it.
EPS will probably be around 2.5 cents, and if the business loss insurance is received in this Q, maybe 4 cents EPS in total. FY EPS of abt 11.5 cents potentially.

Moving on, silver investment, is a 40%60% thing... I agree with the move, but maybe they overpaid for the price. It's more like a calculated risk I guess, odds of silver price falling to 18-20 is not too likely, vs odd of it above 22-24. With possible chance of if it shoots above 24 usd per ounce, that's the added bonus there. However, there's something of concern too, notion director mentioned that they can sell silver to local jewellers at spot+30% which is incorrect, pamp silver bullion can be easily bought at spot+8% by us on a walk in basis... so I doubt the 30% margin is an accurate reflection.

Good thing is, notion is downplaying alcyone's silver supply, by saying 3 years, when alcyone's ASX/FY announcement says their supply is more likely 8 years mine life, longer mine life, avg selling price of silver should be better.

Still, too far to know how it'll go, we'll only see the actual progress from alcyone on Jan. When the proposed alcyone upgrades are complete, and wait until alcyone's March's Q earnings to see if Alcyone management are really in control, and can deliver on their promise.

In regards to their diversification, they did it well enough venturing into camera sector, will they be able to repeat the same again?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-15 10:11 | Report Abuse

MPI's results greatly uplifted the entire tech sector.... if can add in a good Q result from notion next week, gonna be good for the share price

Posted by hoby > 2013-11-20 16:46 | Report Abuse

the weakness is strong

Posted by sephiroth > 2013-11-20 18:33 | Report Abuse

profit drop to 2m , really NOtion
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1467553

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-20 19:10 | Report Abuse

Sephiroth, dont just look into that, there's some good news. Cost of sales dropped 2 million, seems like their automation is bearing fruit, if exclude the forex related costs, their EPS shld be abt 2 cents.

New business from TRW is promising, TRW is a $USD 4 billion sales per Q company. http://trw.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=32950&item=128118

From this Q results, it only mentions TRW just joined as their customer, we don't know since when, 1, 2 or full quarter? And already there's an increase of abt 1 million to the automotive business. If notion manage this account well, and can get more parts from TRW's USD 4 billion, that's not too bad at all.

Please feel free to share more informative discussions here, I'd like to see others ppl views too, to balance out my own, probably biased views.

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-20 19:15 | Report Abuse

Assuming all things are equal, and last Q notion's machine usage is abt 75% if TRW can just push this usage up to 80-85% figure, then the margin will be very healthy... Based on prior revenue of 21 million, and the increase in automative revenue of 1million in this quarter 1/21 = approximately 4% increase in sales already, won't surprise me if machine utilization picks up to 80-85% in next Q's results, resulting in much healthier margins... that's just assuming TRW contributing 1 million additional sales per Q...

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-20 19:24 | Report Abuse

Just browse TRW's website, they have so many products, plenty of opportunity for Notion (IF they manage this account well)

http://www.trw.com/

Posted by chatterbox > 2013-11-21 02:33 | Report Abuse

Quarterly rpt on consolidated results for the financial period ended 30/9/2013

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1467553

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-21 10:27 | Report Abuse

Have to wait for the next Q results to be certain where it'll goes next. My price, 75.5 and 23.3(WB) respectively.

Posted by hoby > 2013-11-22 09:42 | Report Abuse

dividend just announced as your xmas present

Posted by L. C. Chong > 2013-11-25 16:29 | Report Abuse

NOTION Analysis – http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2013/11/25/notionfundamental-analysis-25-nov-2013/

Posted by Telecaster > 2013-11-25 21:38 | Report Abuse

hi Val-Elta, i juz wish to join in the discussion. somewhere along your comment, u mentioned u agree on Notion to buy in Alcyone, but u did agree too they overpaid. they paid aus 5cent per share for a company trading 2cents now. 2.5x market price did sound expensive

http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Financials?s=AYN:ASX

can see Alcyone running out of cash very fast. the company only mines silver. Alcyone is making a loss of aus 10mil at aus 20mil odd revenue. even if silver price doubles, this company also hardly can break-even. besides, Alcyone is inheritance from a previously also-failed silver miner , Macmin, which collapsed due to the same reason, runs out of cash. they banking in in selling silver in Malaysia via Alcytone may be juz a false sense of hope.

Alcyone seem like desperate for Notion's cash to hang on to their life.

Notion must have realized that manufacturing is the hardest hit industry during recession like 2009/10. and during recession, Gold/Silver price will spike. they might hope that having a stake in silver mine can help them hedge on to difficult times. seeing Alcyone financial performance, not sure if Notion is making a right investment decision.

this is my 2 cents worth on Alcytone investment.

anyway, i do agree that Notion core business operation is healthy, but like any other manufacturing base company, when big recession hit and consumption down, they are the hardest hit.

what may be ur thoughts about this?

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-26 12:01 | Report Abuse

For me, the previous losses for alcyone/macmin, is caused by bad management during *good times* where prices is at USD 30++ per oz, I think the previous management got it over their heads, and thus ran into losses.

Anyway, this is what alcyone management is aiming at currently.
http://www.alcyone.com.au/images/alcyone---ciajeiseph.pdf

Based on this, their total costs is around 27 million per annum. Most of which are fixed costs, employee costs, director fees etc and should be fairly predictable.. This cost will mostly +-3% at most, and should not deviate much. The only variable that alcyone management can change is to increase production, which is what they're trying to do now, and their profitability will directly tie to them hitting the 1.28mill oz per annum. Again, this part should be achievable too, as their mining is not an issue, just crushing seems to be their bottleneck..

Their targeted production cost will be AUD18.98 per oz (once they hit 1.28mil economic of scale), in my own expectation for it, i actually assumed their cost to be AUD20 to give me more leverage by assuming a worst scenario.

As long as silver price is above aud20 (Currently AUD 22) that's a company making 10% margin on their products, which is good enough I guess.
Also, if they really can keep costs to aud19 as they targetted, their margin will be 15% at current silver prices of aud22/usd20.2

Assuming a really low silver price of usd18(aud19) alcyone should still breakeven.. so I think not much problem with that investment in the long run.. + as investors, I think we all have considered diversifying into gold/silver one point or another, so we shld be able to understand the reason behind it too... too optimistic maybe, but minimal risks. And there's always the bonus if silver hits 25usd per oz :P

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-26 12:06 | Report Abuse

Alcyone is providing frequent updates... seems on track.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131126/pdf/42l4gx2z318cx0.pdf

Posted by ww_guy > 2013-11-28 10:15 | Report Abuse

drop to below 0.70 to reach lowest in the month...will it hit the lowest of the year? plan to buy in if it drop to below 0.65

Posted by Telecaster > 2013-11-28 18:49 | Report Abuse

Hi Val Elta. Thanks for ur sharing. Somehow I dun see how they relate price of silver to their per unit cost. I still studying and havnt completely get their representation at aud19 as their cost. Coz that is the price of processed silver. Alcyone mine n sells silver ore , not processed silver. They sell to Perth Mint to processed as end product, ie silver. They should rightly represent their cost in terms of the silver ore grade that they are mining. Silver ore also has many quality, some mine ore has higher n lower concentration of silver, n different ore grade sells at different price. maybe they did put this calculation into their presentation bt i still yet to identify it, but loss of 10mil annually really a cause for concern.

I really still observing this counter and ur insights given really useful in extending my understanding to notion n it's investment.

Anyone has any idea or ahare if notion has fully recover from the fire. They have compensation, but does the tragedy has any lasting effects?

Posted by invester > 2013-11-28 22:34 | Report Abuse

Hi Telcaster, from what i know, Notion has purchased and installed those facilities which have been lost on the fire. So, I believe they already restore back the full capacity. I know Notion was very keen in looking for automotive business since 3 years back (and I believe they already started business with some automotive company). They have very good facilities and knowledge to manufacture parts / components with tight tolerances.

Posted by ww_guy > 2013-11-29 14:54 | Report Abuse

wow, drop again, 0.65 soon...now i set my target to buy at below 0.6

Posted by Telecaster > 2013-11-29 16:08 | Report Abuse

nice , hope u catch the fish :)

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-29 16:43 | Report Abuse

cutting lost = your lost, somebody else gains. Keep it low and i'll buy more with my year end bonus next month :P

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-29 16:49 | Report Abuse

Telecaster, a mine's cost of operations is fixed. lets say, i have a mine with 1 miner, and me as director, total cost of operations will be RM3k for my guy, and RM10k for me, add in mining equipment rental or electricity, or cost of land rental/purchase from government. All of them are fixed costs right? Total cost of operation per month, lets say 20k. Per year my cost is 240k RM.

If i produce 1 ounce of silver, my cost of producing that 1 oz = 240k
But with same cost, if i can produce 100oz = 240k/100 = 2.4k
Similarly, if I can produce 100000 oz per year with the same amt of staffs, my cost per oz is RM2.4

What alcyone have identified is they have a bottle neck in the crushing part, and cost cutting in other areas. With a bit more investment, and cutting fixed costs, they can roughly double their OZ per year. while lowering cost, since their fixed cost is about 19million per year, if they can get 1.28mil oz and if can sell above 19AUD per oz, they'll break even and profit..

Posted by Val-Elta > 2013-11-29 16:55 | Report Abuse

I'm more interested to see how much revenue their new customers can bring in per quarter basis. An additional 3-4 million per Q from TRW and another 3 million from a new customer's gonna be good.

Posted by invester > 2013-11-30 15:03 | Report Abuse

I personally met Notion top management and had lunch with them couple years back (due to some business issue). Their management is having a very clear direction on how to grow their company. I believe when Notion invested in Alcyone, they have did a very good study on that. The management is not stupid. They wont throw the money into sea (if they know they are going to make loss with the investment in Alcyone). So, i trust them and I trust Notion.

Posted by ww_guy > 2013-12-02 10:00 | Report Abuse

fast fast, come down to 0.60 and i will buy